Is there a Pattern forming?

Posted:
in Future Apple Hardware edited January 2014
Since the last week of DEC 02:



iCal update

iSync 1.0



Jan. 7 MWNY

PowerBooks, iLife, Safari, Keynote, etc



Jan 10-15

Safari beta update

Financial results



Jan 28

G4 update

20" LCD



Feb 10

Xserve

Xraid



Feb 12-14

iMac updates

eMacs

Safari beta update

10.2.4 update



Feb 17-18



??
«1

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 30
    fran441fran441 Posts: 3,715member
    Well you do have the dates wrong.



    The iMacs and eMacs update was the week before the Xserve update.



    Next week might bring new iPods or 17" PowerBooks shipping.
  • Reply 2 of 30
    paulpaul Posts: 5,278member
    iPod!
  • Reply 3 of 30
    mcqmcq Posts: 1,543member
    As a side note, the financial results prob shouldn't be in that list, as they're usually posted/discussed approximately 15 days after the end of the last financial quarter for Apple, and has zero relationship to any product introduction.
  • Reply 4 of 30
    [quote]Originally posted by jccbin:

    <strong>--SNIP--

    Feb 17-18



    ??</strong><hr></blockquote>



    Feb 18 - dual 2.0GHz PPC 970 PowerMac



  • Reply 5 of 30
    It has been a remarkable flurry of new product announcements. The remaining items are the iPod and the 15.4" powerbook, and we expect that there may be some announcements as soon as inventory drops to lower levels.



    The PowerMac has just been updated, so 970 PMs won't be coming this week. This summer we could see a similar battery of sequential updates with the 7457 chip, with top speeds in the 1.6GHz range and 1.25GHz becoming the base speed across the line.



    As for the 970, IBM is not building that chip for Apple, but for their blade servers. They intend to recapture the high-end server market from Sun and HP. They will be very successful in this, and will then push down into lower-end servers and eventually to desktops and laptops. They will need all the chips they can make, and they may not sell many, or any, to Apple. Let's hope they can spare us some.



    Apple may survive the coming tidal wave of 64-bit Linux, because we're already on a portable operating system, but many companies in the industry will simply be washed away.
  • Reply 6 of 30
    [quote] This summer we could see a similar battery of sequential updates with the 7457 chip, with top speeds in the 1.6GHz range and 1.25GHz becoming the base speed across the line.<hr></blockquote>That will be remarkable as these chips won't be in production until late 2003. [quote]Alpha samples of the MPC7457 and MPC7447 PowerPC processors are available today to selected customers. General market sampling is planned for March, with production expected to commence in Q4 2003.<hr></blockquote>From a moto press release
  • Reply 7 of 30
    Ok,



    sorry about the dates mix-up, but there is a point to the Financial results being in there.



    With the corrected dates you get this:



    iCal/iSync updated Jan 2 (according to apple pr site).



    5 Days later (7 Jan):

    MWNY updates/new stuff Announced



    8 days later (15 Jan):

    Financial Results ANNOUNCED



    13 days later (28 Jan):

    G4s, 20" LCD Announced



    7 days later (4 Feb):

    Spring iMacs Announced



    6 days later (10 Feb):

    Xserve, Xraid Announced



    3 days later (Feb 13):

    Mac OS 10.2.4 released



    5, 8, 13, 7, 6, 3 days



    Not one longer than two weeks. The average? 7 days.

    Throw out the 13 and 3, and it's 6.5 days.



    For 2003, Apple is making an important announcement, on average, every 7 days.



    For 3 months of 2002 (chose Sep-Nov, since no major announcements in DEC):



    Sep 3: iPod at Best Buy

    Sep 10: X-only booting/iCal ships

    Sep 30: iSync Public Beta released

    Oct 16: financial results annouced

    Oct 17: Jaguar for Teachers

    Oct 30: iPod at Target

    Nov. 6: PowerBook, iBook updates





    7,20,16,1,13,7 days (10.6 days average); drop the 1 and the 20 and it's 10.75 days; drop the 1, since Apple probably figured the teachers' bundle and bad financial results don't need to mix on same day and it's 12.6 days.



    Of course there were other PR announcements during the intervals, but they were merely press releases and the like - no real announcements of products or fin. results - so they were left out. ( <a href="http://www.apple.com/pr"; target="_blank">www.apple.com/pr</a> has the whole list ).



    So, now Apple is making announcements about once per week now. Last year was likely an average of 12-14 days.



    In short, so far for 2003, Apple appears to be executing one major announcement on an average of every week.



    Could we possibly survive 50 announcements this year with our poor hearts intact?

    :eek:
  • Reply 8 of 30
    [quote]Originally posted by jccbin:

    <strong>

    In short, so far for 2003, Apple appears to be executing one major announcement on an average of every week.



    Could we possibly survive 50 announcements this year with our poor hearts intact?

    :eek: </strong><hr></blockquote>



    This stretech has been one of the most impressive by Apple, no doubt. But I still think it will be a while before they can match the 9 day span of announcements that happened in May 1998.



    May 4, 1998

    Apple Acquires Technology from Macromedia (leads to Final Cut Pro)



    May 5, 1998

    Quicken is Back On the Mac



    May 6, 1998 (Apple Event - Pro.Go.Whoa.)

    Apple Unveils iMac

    Apple Introduces PowerBook G3

    Apple Store Opens E-doors to Education and the United Kingdom

    Apple Unveils New Product Strategy



    May 8, 1998

    Apple's Online Stores Post Record Sales



    May 11, 1998

    Apple Announces Mac OS Software Strategy (Mac OS X brand formally announced)



    May 11, 1998

    Apple Crushes Competition in New TV Spot (Steamroller ad)



    May 13, 1998

    Apple Pays Tribute to Jerry Seinfeld with Think Different Spot
  • Reply 9 of 30
    matsumatsu Posts: 6,558member
    If the 970 isn't aimed squarely at Apple then it's going to die out very quickly. IBM blade servers may be a relatively small but extremely profitable market, but IBM has more options than anybody, they can afford to get disenterested as easily as they can afford to do custom versions of chips on a per contract basis (see Nintendo). IBM's PPC offerings are ludicris even by Apple's pathetic standards of price to CPU performance. IBM will still sell you 604 SIX OH FOUR!!! based machines for an ungodly sum. That tells me that they can afford to get disinterested, since the can always use Power CPU's for really big iron and Xeons (or whatever 64bit wintelon replacement catches on) as the need arises in smaller workstations.



    While 970 is good, there is no guarantee that IBM will be committed to it in 4-5 years if it's something solely for their use, and Apple may again find itself foaming at the mouth over a lack of competitive CPU. IBM MUST sell more 970's than it uses itself to have any hope in hell of the PPC thriving. Apple is a big customer, and Nintendo and Sony could also be big customers, but unless they can sell a lot of them there is a real possibility that IBM will grow tired of making cutting edge PPC's just as they have in the past. IBM was supposed to be shipping 2Ghz altivec G3's by know if we were to believe their original statements. Sure they sound committed now, but they've been worse for Apple than Motorola so far, and could be again if this thing doesn't look like it will immediately take off. Even with 2.5% of the world market, an Apple committed to movinf PPC970's could sell a lot more of them than IBM could in their very expensive blades, especially if Apple uses more DP configs, as they should across the entire PM line and lowers prices to acceptable levels. PPC is supposed to be CHEAP CHEAP CHEAP to buy and to run. POWER is the chip for expensive machines, and IBM will use those, 970 could quickly become a yeah-so-what? product for IBM unless someone like Apple is there to buy up as many chips as they can make. Basically, IBM has the POWER series for their big iron machines and many more options for their smaller business.
  • Reply 10 of 30
    iPod updates are probably coming Tuesday. But after that? Where's the new "digital device"? The flood of new products and updates is unprecendented in Apple's history I think. Hope they keep it up.
  • Reply 11 of 30
    [quote] It has been a remarkable flurry of new product announcements. The remaining items are the iPod and the 15.4" powerbook, and we expect that there may be some announcements as soon as inventory drops to lower levels.

    The PowerMac has just been updated, so 970 PMs won't be coming this week. This summer we could see a similar battery of sequential updates with the 7457 chip, with top speeds in the 1.6GHz range and 1.25GHz becoming the base speed across the line.



    As for the 970, IBM is not building that chip for Apple, but for their blade servers. They intend to recapture the high-end server market from Sun and HP. They will be very successful in this, and will then push down into lower-end servers and eventually to desktops and laptops. They will need all the chips they can make, and they may not sell many, or any, to Apple. Let's hope they can spare us some.



    Apple may survive the coming tidal wave of 64-bit Linux, because we're already on a portable operating system, but many companies in the industry will simply be washed away.



    <hr></blockquote>



    Apple will 'survive' the 'tidal wave' of Linux because Apple has a far superior desktop OS to Linux or Windows XP. They have survived the 'Mhz Hurts' and have lived to tell the tale from attacking 'Powerpoint' and 'Internet Explorer.' Why? Because Apple has its own market.



    I think many Apple people will buy the X-serve route over choosing the Linux root. 'X' is becoming more compelling with each release. Artists, consumers...even small to medium and some, SOME big business clients are looking at 'X' and 'X-serve' long and hard.



    Apple's finally waking upto the idea that it is, and always has been, a software company that do nice boxes and CAN offer compelling software/hardware integration. (HALLOW, APPLE, if they'd woken up to the idea they were a software company in the the first place...we'd a been in an Apple monopoly instead of a crappy Wintel one...I digress...)



    '57' in 'power'Macs come July? The G4 is getting one helluva beating. Specially in Premiere and Lightwave benches. And that's with two G4s vs one not top of the range 2.6 Pentium 4. The G4 is simply out muscled and out classed and 18 months behind what Intel are doing with the P4. Sure, the mhz myth made sense in the G3 days. So, no. I don't think so.



    Apple need something a little more earth shattering that 'a long (and arduous) life ahead of it' G4 (HALLOW, MR. RUBENSTEIN!)... 970 fall POWER MAC? Yes please.



    As for the rest of the pattern? I don't really care.



    Sod the pattern. After the iPod and iBook get bumped in the next couple of months...I predict a huge pregnant pause where Apple doesn't release much. Then the avalanche will begin from July onwards...as Apple finally gets a decent Tower cpu. And the '57'? P***** off to where it belongs. In the consumer line.



    Sort out the cpus, keep up the new software releases, open more stores (in the right places...) and keep up the frenetic pace on 'X'...and maybe late this year, a new DLD...media tablet come video Pod/camera thing.



    We may even get a 'duo' style laptop inbetween the iBook and Powerbook? If it' the year of the laptop...I would expect one more surprise 'laptop' addition.



    And a barebones desktop. If they're serious about growth that is. When your customers are walking in with PC sale newsclippings...then you oughta wake up and give them a bare bones PC in an Ives style masterpiece case. ie I want my bloody iCube, Apple. And I want it cheap and now.



    Growth will come. (If they can get prices down another 5-10%)



    Lemon Bon Bon
  • Reply 12 of 30
    mcqmcq Posts: 1,543member
    Eh, no. All I'm seeing here is flawed logic... you're trying to extrapolate January's PR rate (which is high because of Macworld and usual January introductions) to the rest of the entire year? I don't see that happenning. BTW, your comparison to Sept.-Nov 2002 (3 months) really should be Sept. 3 - Nov. 6 (about 2 months and 3 days), as you noted nothing after Nov. 6, and in Dec. there was nothing major. I certainly don't doubt that Apple has future product updates in the pipeline (iPod/iBook appears to be next up I'd assume), but don't expect some sort of software/hardware update every week this year.



    BTW, in your list for Jan-Feb 2003 I think you forgot to mention the X11 beta being updated to 0.2.
  • Reply 13 of 30
    The short of it: I think their getting the updates over with so that they can focus on releasing the 970. That would be a logical move, and it seems to be the one that they are making.



    The full of it: It is hard not to notice the flurry of Apple product releases and updates that have been taking place in the last month. The only line that has not been touched is the iBook, and that should be updated any day now. But it's not the updates themselves that are wonderful, although most are, it's the unusual density of updates that is kind of suspicious. Here is my brilliant theory: Apple is clearing the months ahead of any deadlines, and instead of having to jump all over to get products out in time, they will have no deadlines to meet for six months! This will allow them to have 6 long months to work on...what? The 970? A kickass new technology? A tablet like no mortals have seen? This gives them about 4 months of undistracted brainstorming(remember, they still have to refresh everything in six months) to design a truly kickass product. Most of you will probably have the 970 come to mind as the Big Project, but whatever it is, it's gonna be good.

    (I was a bit redundant with the "6 months" thing, wasn't I)



    [ 02-16-2003: Message edited by: os10geek ]</p>
  • Reply 14 of 30
    [quote]The short of it: I think their getting the updates over with so that they can focus on releasing the 970. That would be a logical move, and it seems to be the one that they are making. <hr></blockquote>



    Yes.



    And the rest of your post makes sense.



    Apple needs to deliver a few really big guns in 2003.



    Mac OS 10.3, 970 and a 'tablet'DLD?



    The first two for the pro' market. The 3rd as a device that can help them go 'critical mass' and build upon the 'beyond the box' of the iPod.



    Lemon Bon Bon
  • Reply 15 of 30
    From MacWhispers:



    No New Apple Digital Lifestyle Device Coming



    Sometimes we are able to deduce the existence of news from the absence of news; in this case, we have realized that no new digital lifestyle device from Apple is coming anytime in the foreseeable future. The evidence?... a complete absence of component or manufacturing-level activity toward such a product anywhere in Apple's supply chain.
  • Reply 16 of 30
    Hey, Macsrgood4u...Macwhispers is kinda contradictory. On the link you saw, it says definite no-no for lifestyle device. But on <a href="http://www.envestco2.com/macwhispers/archives/000028.php"; target="_blank">newer addition</a>, it lists an "Apple handheld" under top 5 products. Go figure.
  • Reply 17 of 30
    709709 Posts: 2,016member
    Is there a Pattern forming?



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    Hmmm.....I'm beginning to see a pattern here..... <img src="graemlins/lol.gif" border="0" alt="[Laughing]" />
  • Reply 18 of 30
    I'm a workin' soul, my friend.
  • Reply 19 of 30
    [quote]Originally posted by os10geek:

    <strong>I'm a workin' soul, my friend.</strong><hr></blockquote>



    More like a manic depressive on speed ...
  • Reply 20 of 30
    costiquecostique Posts: 1,084member
    One thing is sure: if Apple tries to keep making announcements every week, they are going to run out of products very soon. What is there Apple didn't update yet? iPods and 15" PowerBooks, I guess. They may also have a brand new product, but that means that in 2-3 weeks Apple simply won't have anything to say.
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