Diskless minipod
Just some general thoughts on the minipod rumors. It seems to me that it is pointless having an iPod with a 2GB or so disk, because it's not going to be that much cheaper than a "fullsize" 10GB model.
Many people are speculating that it must be flash memory-based - but that doesn't fit because Compact Flash memory of any size is not cheap.
Hmm, conundrum.
Well, I reckon that the most expensive component of the current iPods is the disk. Take that and the profit out and what you have in you hand is probably around USD:100.00 of batteries and wires. Take the batteries out and you're probably down to USD:60.00.
So now you have a diskless, powerless handful of plastic and wires.
Given that flash-based memory uses less power, how about we go for the easy solution - AA/AAA-based battery-pack. And we play the usual trick of not including any batteries with the machine.
So, now we still have no disk. Hey, that sounds like a cost saving to me!
So, let's put in a removable Compact Flash slot, and we're finished - minipods are go.
But to keep people a little bit happy we bundle in a 128MB CF card, cost should still be less than USD:100.00, the user can buy as many CF cards as they like, and/or reuse those they already have... sale price USD:129.99.
The only other option I can come up with is a MiniDisc-based iPod. Which is probably doable for around the same price - but puts Apple head-on with all the other personal hifi vendors, but without a USP.
Hmm, actually, looking at the options, I reckon all this minipod malarky is bollocks.
-- Clive
Many people are speculating that it must be flash memory-based - but that doesn't fit because Compact Flash memory of any size is not cheap.
Hmm, conundrum.
Well, I reckon that the most expensive component of the current iPods is the disk. Take that and the profit out and what you have in you hand is probably around USD:100.00 of batteries and wires. Take the batteries out and you're probably down to USD:60.00.
So now you have a diskless, powerless handful of plastic and wires.
Given that flash-based memory uses less power, how about we go for the easy solution - AA/AAA-based battery-pack. And we play the usual trick of not including any batteries with the machine.
So, now we still have no disk. Hey, that sounds like a cost saving to me!
So, let's put in a removable Compact Flash slot, and we're finished - minipods are go.
But to keep people a little bit happy we bundle in a 128MB CF card, cost should still be less than USD:100.00, the user can buy as many CF cards as they like, and/or reuse those they already have... sale price USD:129.99.
The only other option I can come up with is a MiniDisc-based iPod. Which is probably doable for around the same price - but puts Apple head-on with all the other personal hifi vendors, but without a USP.
Hmm, actually, looking at the options, I reckon all this minipod malarky is bollocks.
-- Clive
Comments
I only have a little over 600 songs, totaling just over 2 gigs on my 10 gig iPod.
If Apple comes out with a 1 gig iPod, that would be a 300 song capacity, which is very good.
Let's face it, we don't LOVE all of the songs that are on our iPods. If I whittled my library down to what I really care about, it would easily fit under 1 gig.
Originally posted by FormatC2
Anything that holds more than 72 minutes of music, the amount on a standard CD, is a revolution.
Well, if 1GB = 300 songs, that's around 40 songs on 128MB CF card - quite a lot more than any CD. And a couple of CF cards are a lot easier to carry than a few CDs (though you wouldn't want to lose them!).
It's not the best solution in the world, but it's the only way I can see of doing it cheaply.
I'll have the Paul Smith stripey version.
Originally posted by Nebagakid
It is infinite...
An infinite void... is that something like the inside of your head?
Originally posted by Clive
An infinite void... is that something like the inside of your head?
BAM!
IF I knew you a little better, I might insult your sperm count.
all in good spirit
So, selling a very low margin, maybe even no margin $99 iPod doesn't make sense unless they can make $30 a pop off them. So that leaves you where?
Unless this whole buddy buddy G5 deal with IBM got them sorta under the table massage from IBM to clear out all their old 1GB CompacFlash microdrives. Maybe the new iPods are CF based with the option of putting an IBM MicroDrive in the more 'spensive versions.
I can't imagine FireWire at this pricepoint either. USB2 maybe.
Maybe its CF with the option of streaming live over WiFi at home/work/cafe, etc.
Baaah! Just suprise me Steve. I had to eat crow a couple years ago when you rolled out the iPod. I cursed like a sailor and called you the anti-Christ for wasting my R&D dollars on an MP3 player.
Mea culpa, old pal.
Originally posted by mooseman
...I'm a little wary of this whole "cheap iPod" thing myself. There is no way to hit a $99 price point without using flash memory. Apple has already said that the whole point of the iTunes Music Store was to drive iPod sales. They already said that the best they do on the Music Store is "break even."
Forget the mini part. Sounds completely plausible to me that Apple could sell a 4-5 GB iPod for $199 and a 2 GB model for less.
Originally posted by mooseman
...I'm a little wary of this whole "cheap iPod" thing myself. There is no way to hit a $99 price point without using flash memory. Apple has already said that the whole point of the iTunes Music Store was to drive iPod sales. They already said that the best they do on the Music Store is "break even."
So, selling a very low margin, maybe even no margin $99 iPod doesn't make sense unless they can make $30 a pop off them. So that leaves you where?
Who knows, maybe the got some sense these days, and realise that attracting customers first, earning real money later is a risky but proven business model in the tech world.
Originally posted by mooseman
...I'm a little wary of this whole "cheap iPod" thing myself. There is no way to hit a $99 price point without using flash memory.
Check the prices on flash memory. A $99 iPod is NOT going to happen. (unless IBM gets it's Millipede technology out).
Originally posted by spotcatbug
Or, "mini" only refers to the capacity. That would work. iPods are already small enough (physically).
I beg to differ. I don't mind the size of my iPod, but I bet I'd buy an iPod half the height and depth (and capacity) of my current 10GB iPod. Yep, I'm already eyeing my money bags.
Originally posted by spotcatbug
Or, "mini" only refers to the capacity. That would work. iPods are already small enough (physically). $100 for a 2GB iPod, at its current size, would be pretty good. $150 for a 5GB would be better and that's half the cost of the current 10GB.
I can?t really see that a 2GB "disk" costs substantially less than a 10GB drive, or at least not enough to make a decent differentiation in price.
Apple puts USD:100.00 between 10/20/40GB - but I think we all know that a good deal of that is extra profit on the larger capacities, or close to no profit on the smaller one. And the lowest capacity is also missing some accessories.
My guess would be that they stopped making the 5GB because they couldn't make a sensible price break between it and the 10GB.
If we take drives for laptops as a model, CDW has 20GB 2.5" drives from USD:107.00 (though other models don't start until USD:130.00 for 10GB!?). Looking at Branded drives Fujitsu 40/60/80 prices are 150/190/270. The small Toshiba drives in the iPods are going to cost more, but lets say Apple gets them at the same prices for 10/20/40GB - a big supposition, but who's going to call me a liar?
If we go with that it makes current iPods, sans disks, something like USD:150/210/230.00.
I think we're back where we came in, aren't we? If we take USD:150.00 as the basic price without a disk, then a smaller capacity iPod can only cost more than USD:150.00. So, I'll go back to my proposition that it can only be done with removable CF, and possibly shipping with no card at all (and AA/AAA battery powered).
With a hard drive I can't see it breaking USD:200.00, actually, more like USD:249.00.
If someone can come up with some prices for the Toshiba drives, maybe we can get a better guess. But I really don't think anyone's going to see a USD:100.00 iPod next week.
Oops, same story put out by Forbes today... sorry for double linkage.
1. Diskless, batteryless iPod.
Uses CF, AAA/AA batteries.
$99 USD
2. Diskless, built-in battery iPod.
Uses CF, recharges with dock.
$149 USD
3. Microdrive/small HD, built-in battery iPod.
Recharges with dock.
2GB $199 USD
4GB $249 USD
Well 1.5 drives are pretty cheap since these devices go for around $199. If apple makes a 2gb ipod and prices it around $149-199 it will actually be the cheapest.
Originally posted by jade
Well 1.5 drives are pretty cheap since these devices go for around $199. If apple makes a 2gb ipod and prices it around $149-199 it will actually be the cheapest.
And just how likely does it seem that Apple would produce the cheapest item in an open market?
Has anyone thought for a second that maybe this miniPod thing is just a hoax leaked by Apple so that people don't try to guess what's coming?
Maybe they come out with something completely different.