The Reinvention of Apple Computer
Below are a few "predictions" for 2004 and beyond. I'll give no reasons why you should believe any of this. "Faeylyn" isn't my real name. And, you folks at Apple Legal will never find out who I really am, so don't bother trying.
And now....
Sit down before you read this and prepare to pull your jaw up off the floor?.
The 20th anniversary of Apple Computer brought a new, very cool 20th anniversary Macintosh. The upcoming 20th anniversary of the Macintosh will bring a new, ?insanely great? reinvention of Apple Computer itself. Timeframe: 2004. Not all at once (unfortunately), but all in 2004.
Everything ? EVERYTHING ? is going to get an update.
The rumor mills are flying with seemingly conflicting information. It?s not conflicting, just confusing because most people can?t imagine the across-the-board changes coming.
1. G5 XServes: Of course. Nothing unexpected here. Already announced. Expect XServe updates to keep better pace with PowerMac updates for the foreseeable future. 3U 4-processor and 8-processor XServes are in the labs, but it?s unclear whether these will be released in 2004 (or at all).
2. PowerMac Updates: All Dual, starting at 2GHz/$1999. New impressive internal specs as well. $1999 for the entry-level tower model? People will surely revolt! Not when they see what?s coming next.
3. AIO (All In One) iMacs are bye-bye. Take the pod/base of the iMac, chop off the display, redesign it to look uber-cool as only Ives can do, plop in single G5s and impressive (albeit less impressive than PowerMac) internals, and price-points of $999/1.6GHz, $1299/1.8GHz, $1599/2.0GHz. No super-drive or oodles of memory at $999. This effectively takes care of the ?new cube? or ?headless iMac? rumors. But what about AIO lovers? AIO iMacs are gone, but we?re not done yet. Keep reading?.
4. Display Update #1: Why would anyone buy a pricey Apple-brand monitor for their new iMac when they can get better price/performance from brand-x. (1) Form-factor. While you technically could tack a blasé display to a mondo-cool iMac, no one will want to just based on the looks alone. Expect the display look/feel to perfectly match the ?new new iMac?. Taken together, they will appear to be ?all-in-one-ish?. Or, put the new new iMac under the desk and the new displays will still look very, very Apple. Also expect a reduction in price for the base model and larger displays.
5. Display Update #2: Kill me now. Think large. Think ULTIMATE viewing experience.
6. PowerBook Updates: Yes. Q1/2004 PowerBook G4s at 1.4, 1.6, and 1.8GHz. Other impressive internals to take advantage of the new IBM-based G4. An even better form factor (is that possible?). New, higher-resolution screens and better video cards across the board. G5 PowerBooks won?t appear until late 2004. There are just too many heat and power issues to work out without compromising the portable?s form factor.
7. iBook Updates: Yes. Basically a crippled PowerBook. No new displays for the iBook this time around. Expect the high-end iBook to top out where the bottom-end PowerBook begins. Look for price points starting at $999 for a 1GHz 12? model. 1.4GHz will appear in the top-end. With the slight reduction in price and the better performance, these babies should fly off the shelves. Expect the following round of iBook updates to go mimic the 1.4/1.6/1.8 G4 PowerBook updates above. When the PowerBooks go to G5's the iBooks will go to high-end G4s.
8. eMac Updates: But of course! But first, for those who think Apple should abandon this design, forget it. There?s a market that requires this design and is willing to shell out your tax dollars in order to get it. Get over it already. However, while the form-factor is needed, that doesn?t mean a design makeover for the thing isn?t in order. Next to all the other updates the current eMac design would look pretty shabby. Add to the new design the new IBM G4s running at 1.4, 1.6, and 1.8GHz. Faster memory, better graphics, and like that.
That?s it for the existing hardware updates. As mentioned, not everything will be available at once. Expect at least one significant announcement per quarter though. So if you don?t see something above by end of Q1, that makes it much more likely for Q2, and so on.
Apple wants a LOT of press out of the 2004 updates. They have been slowly (very slowly) tugging away market share from Wintel in 2003. What they?re looking to do with these product releases is to give a good solid yank on that chain rather than the gentle tug that has been happening up to this point. [A ?side-note rumor? is that this is one of the reasons Microsoft purchased Virtual PC. Microsoft is EXPECTING Apple to make significant inroads into the PC market-space in 2004-2005.]
And now....
Sit down before you read this and prepare to pull your jaw up off the floor?.
The 20th anniversary of Apple Computer brought a new, very cool 20th anniversary Macintosh. The upcoming 20th anniversary of the Macintosh will bring a new, ?insanely great? reinvention of Apple Computer itself. Timeframe: 2004. Not all at once (unfortunately), but all in 2004.
Everything ? EVERYTHING ? is going to get an update.
The rumor mills are flying with seemingly conflicting information. It?s not conflicting, just confusing because most people can?t imagine the across-the-board changes coming.
1. G5 XServes: Of course. Nothing unexpected here. Already announced. Expect XServe updates to keep better pace with PowerMac updates for the foreseeable future. 3U 4-processor and 8-processor XServes are in the labs, but it?s unclear whether these will be released in 2004 (or at all).
2. PowerMac Updates: All Dual, starting at 2GHz/$1999. New impressive internal specs as well. $1999 for the entry-level tower model? People will surely revolt! Not when they see what?s coming next.
3. AIO (All In One) iMacs are bye-bye. Take the pod/base of the iMac, chop off the display, redesign it to look uber-cool as only Ives can do, plop in single G5s and impressive (albeit less impressive than PowerMac) internals, and price-points of $999/1.6GHz, $1299/1.8GHz, $1599/2.0GHz. No super-drive or oodles of memory at $999. This effectively takes care of the ?new cube? or ?headless iMac? rumors. But what about AIO lovers? AIO iMacs are gone, but we?re not done yet. Keep reading?.
4. Display Update #1: Why would anyone buy a pricey Apple-brand monitor for their new iMac when they can get better price/performance from brand-x. (1) Form-factor. While you technically could tack a blasé display to a mondo-cool iMac, no one will want to just based on the looks alone. Expect the display look/feel to perfectly match the ?new new iMac?. Taken together, they will appear to be ?all-in-one-ish?. Or, put the new new iMac under the desk and the new displays will still look very, very Apple. Also expect a reduction in price for the base model and larger displays.
5. Display Update #2: Kill me now. Think large. Think ULTIMATE viewing experience.
6. PowerBook Updates: Yes. Q1/2004 PowerBook G4s at 1.4, 1.6, and 1.8GHz. Other impressive internals to take advantage of the new IBM-based G4. An even better form factor (is that possible?). New, higher-resolution screens and better video cards across the board. G5 PowerBooks won?t appear until late 2004. There are just too many heat and power issues to work out without compromising the portable?s form factor.
7. iBook Updates: Yes. Basically a crippled PowerBook. No new displays for the iBook this time around. Expect the high-end iBook to top out where the bottom-end PowerBook begins. Look for price points starting at $999 for a 1GHz 12? model. 1.4GHz will appear in the top-end. With the slight reduction in price and the better performance, these babies should fly off the shelves. Expect the following round of iBook updates to go mimic the 1.4/1.6/1.8 G4 PowerBook updates above. When the PowerBooks go to G5's the iBooks will go to high-end G4s.
8. eMac Updates: But of course! But first, for those who think Apple should abandon this design, forget it. There?s a market that requires this design and is willing to shell out your tax dollars in order to get it. Get over it already. However, while the form-factor is needed, that doesn?t mean a design makeover for the thing isn?t in order. Next to all the other updates the current eMac design would look pretty shabby. Add to the new design the new IBM G4s running at 1.4, 1.6, and 1.8GHz. Faster memory, better graphics, and like that.
That?s it for the existing hardware updates. As mentioned, not everything will be available at once. Expect at least one significant announcement per quarter though. So if you don?t see something above by end of Q1, that makes it much more likely for Q2, and so on.
Apple wants a LOT of press out of the 2004 updates. They have been slowly (very slowly) tugging away market share from Wintel in 2003. What they?re looking to do with these product releases is to give a good solid yank on that chain rather than the gentle tug that has been happening up to this point. [A ?side-note rumor? is that this is one of the reasons Microsoft purchased Virtual PC. Microsoft is EXPECTING Apple to make significant inroads into the PC market-space in 2004-2005.]
Comments
iPods and iTMS.
Consider the iPod. Technically, it?s not really very advanced at all. There?s really nothing special about it. The fact that it?s currently the best music player out there really speaks to the complete ineptitude of other companies more than it speaks to the technical prowess of Apple (not speaking Marketing prowess here, okay?) Technically, it?s just a so-so device.
Others will soon (end of 2004) catch up and pass (end of 2005) the iPod in the coolness factor. Apple cannot compete in a commodity market like this in the long-run. Others will continue to make improvements and eventually surpass the iPod. And when the iPod is no longer the cool kid on the block, what will become of the iTMS? Yes, the interface of the iTMS is better than the rest, but ? like all things Wintel ? they?ll continue to make minor updates until they finally get it right. Or, more accurately, ?good enough?.
So if people are flocking to the cool new sPod from Sony, and if people can connect to another music service to feed music to that device, where does that leave Apple?
Apple knows this. And they have no intention of letting yet another market that they pioneered be pirated away by the leeches of Silicon Valley.
First, the hardware. Apple knows they cannot compete ? long term ? in a commodity hardware market. Not only are better music devices coming, but better integration of existing devices will occur in 2004. Think phones. There is a HUGE market for people looking to carry just one device. One device they must carry is a phone. A phone with 1GB or 2GB of memory could hold a decent amount of music and would be a heaven-sent device for these people. Apple has nothing to offer these people. And they never will (hardware-wise).
So what to do? What happens when a mondo-cool phone with a decent music player appears that has a decent interface into a decent music service? How will Apple compete with that? Answer: Apple must offer their DRM technology to other hardware manufacturers. Apple?s DRM must be on the latest and greatest gadgets out there. Note that the latest and greatest music players out there are all currently made by Apple. When that changes, expect Apple?s DRM model of iPod?s only to change too.
But why would another company, like Sony, put Apple?s DRM on their devices? What?s in it for them? And, especially, why PAY Apple a royalty fee (and Apple WILL be charging royalties) for this privilege? And, even if other companies did include Apple?s DRM, how then would iTMS make any money? It barely breaks even now. Apple only makes money because it helps them sell iPods. So what happens when the iPods are no longer supporting iTMS?
First, expect the iPods to continue to evolve. Expect that little portable HD to be put to a lot more use than simply playing music. Expect the iPod to turn into your LifePod. Lots of cool stuff surrounding this, but most of it will not come out until 2005.
But again, what happens when the iPods are no longer supporting iTMS?
One?More?Thing?
This is where the ?reinvention? of Apple Computer comes into its own. Apple Computer will become Apple, Inc. There will be two major divisions (initially): (1) Apple Computer, and (2) Apple Studios. Apple Studios will be a combination movie/music studio. This will happen with the purchase of (a) Pixar, and (b) Apple Records. You heard correctly. Apple Computer will announce that they have purchased both Pixar Animation Studios and Apple Records. Several things will come of this.
First, the entire collection of a certain musical group will become available exclusively on iTMS. This may not happen in right away, but the goal is by the end of 2004. These tracks have yet to be made available (legally) on any music service. And the only music service they will every see will be iTMS.
Second, Apple Records will become an active record label again and start signing other artists. What?s in it for the artists? A LOT better deal than with any other record label. What?s in it for Apple? Online exclusives and tracks that actually make them money. They will now get to keep most of that 99 cents rather than forking it over to the RIAA. If you want these tracks, you have to either buy the album or come over to iTMS. Either way, Apple makes money out of the deal.
This will all ensure that Apple continues to be a major force in this market. Apple?s DRM will be included because companies cannot afford to not include it. So even if someone buys a Sony MP3 player and never looks at iTMS, Apple will still be getting a little kickback through DRM licensing. And if they do use iTMS, all the better.
It?s all about content and providing the ultimate user experience for that content. Whether general computing tasks, the internet, iTMS -> iPod -> iMac or Apple/Pixar -> Mac -> uber-Projector/set-top-box. Using one to sell the other. High-end, best-of-breed hardware for the ultimate computing/listening/viewing experience. 2004 will be a VERY good year for Apple. It will only be topped by what?s in store for 2005.
And the beat goes on?.
Originally posted by Faeylyn
Second, Apple Records will become an active record label again and start signing other artists. What?s in it for the artists? A LOT better deal than with any other record label. What?s in it for Apple? Online exclusives and tracks that actually make them money. They will now get to keep most of that 99 cents rather than forking it over to the RIAA. If you want these tracks, you have to either buy the album or come over to iTMS. Either way, Apple makes money out of the deal.
apple will contract every apple-customer automatically and will offer them to sell self-composed garage-band/logic-produced songs over the iTMS. the payment will take place over the .mac-service! profits 50:50 -> how 'bout that?
Originally posted by murk
But what happened to the iCam?
what iCam?
Originally posted by murk
But what happened to the iCam?
maybe it has come alive as the iSight!
how large an image could one project in a footprint juuuuust larger then an iMac base?
that is, projector is just behind your keyboard, fold up screen is behind your iMac?
i'm trying to make sense of what a little bird told me.
Originally posted by Harald
how large an image could one project in a footprint juuuuust larger then an iMac base?
that is, projector is just behind your keyboard, fold up screen is behind your iMac?
i'm trying to make sense of what a little bird told me.
Why would Apple make that format? Who would want it? A projector wouldn't take the place of anything Apple currently sells. There will still be a need for the current form factor and current monitors. Completely different product line (but with links to current products).
The Pixar deal...I don't know. It makes sense -- could provide rendering hardware in-house (the 8-way 3U XServes), and of course Jobs/the board would love to have a bigger piece of the action. Plus, there's the tumult with Pixar/Disney (see thread in AO - Pixar/disney, etc.)--could Apple with this new division essentially distribute films itself?
Originally posted by Faeylyn
One?More?Thing?
This is where the ?reinvention? of Apple Computer comes into its own. Apple Computer will become Apple, Inc. There will be two major divisions (initially): (1) Apple Computer, and (2) Apple Studios. Apple Studios will be a combination movie/music studio. This will happen with the purchase of (a) Pixar, and (b) Apple Records. You heard correctly. Apple Computer will announce that they have purchased both Pixar Animation Studios and Apple Records. Several things will come of this.
And the beat goes on?.
Why do I feel like a frog, who's been thrown into a pot of way comfy luke-warm water/Apple Info, only to have the heat turned up slowly but steadily, so I wind up toasted by the end of the experience?
Dood...
If Apple buys Pixar and Apple records, and becomes a record company themselves, dontcha think they'll be considered in a HUGE conflict of interest with the other - by now - very skittish record companies they host?
Believe me, all Uncle Bill would have to do at that point is call up Sony, Polygram etc etc and say "See, told ya so, tell ya what, you use my WMF stuff, and MY DRM, and I swear I'll never compete with you - hell I don't need to, I already own the air you breathe anyway"...
Oh, 1.8Ghz G4?
Get your feet off my coffee table, and no, I'm not going to spend money to buy an ad in your year book - now scram ... oh, and empty your pockets on the way out!
None of it sounds implausible to me.
Pixar have broken free of Disney and can negotiate their own distribution deal. Jobs owns 55% of Pixar.
Apple Records doesn't do much. Apple buying them would be a better settlement than the Beatles sueing Apple for years in the courts.
An Apple Studios/Apple Records content leviathon would be an intriguing and powerful new beast/player in content.
Certainly, the idea of exclusive Beatles content to lock down the music player market would be a sure fire winner.
Pixar film content exclusive to an Apple movie download service via Pixlet in a couple of years time? On your projecting vPod?
Making the PowerMacs all dual. That would involve a price hike on the low end. But a dual 2 gig at a little over the 1.6 G5's price? A good deal.
Getting rid of the AIO aspect of the current iMac would be a welcome move. It's far too limiting. Nice, 'BUT'. A return to a 'cool' Cube form factor with single G5 and the redesigned eMac below that? I guess I'd settle for that for the time being. Apple effectively gets decent priced mini-towers. Making a nice switcher box that meets the markets 'sweet spot' $999 price point. (Remember what Fred Anderson said at the analyst roll call?)
Powerbook, I could believe a heavily ramped up IBM G4 for eMac and Powerbook in the absence of cool enough G5. A 1.8 G4 would be a good performer for a portable. Especially on a superior bus.
None of this sounds outlandish. Though reading between the lines...I'm a little concerned as to the timing of this. I would have expected a G5 product blitz in the first quarter. Bumped G5 towers and the 'new new iMac' in G5 ville. I would expect the revised eMac and Powerbook just in time for early 2nd quarter...well in time for the edu buying season. Not to mention the iBook as well.
But importantly to me, would be bumped G5 towers and a revised iMac first.
There's no doubt that if Apple wants to survive the constant errosion of its marketshare then radical moves are required. An even bolder consumer Mac strategy. More competitive pricing on the iMac and iBook. (Stronger 'tug' on the Wintel market...) And a move to utilise current assets that Jobs has such as Pixar and their new found strength in music. The Apple Studios/Records vision could make Apple a strong player with Apple Computers set to benefit...less dependent on hardware as revenues from content go through the roof.
Looking at this, I could well see a day Apple goes software only. Apple can then circle round to stare M$ right in the face. If Apple 'Inc' can make $200 million per quarter from non-hardware sales of content, services and taking bigger cuts of sales from the iTMS then 'X' could be ported to multiple platforms with the potential to make Apple even more revenue from Software available to 95% of the computing market.
Like the mystery poster above says, 2004 may lay the ground work for the real fireworks to fly in 2005.
True or false. I congratulate the mystery poster on a very intriguing post.
Lemon Bon Bon
Originally posted by OverToasty
If Apple buys Pixar and Apple records, and becomes a record company themselves, dontcha think they'll be considered in a HUGE conflict of interest with the other - by now - very skittish record companies they host?
Not to mention that the only people with access to this kind of info would be high level Apple execs who are certainly not about to blow their stock portfolios leaking it on AI.
Looking at this, I could well see a day Apple goes software only. Apple can then circle round to stare M$ right in the face. If Apple 'Inc' can make $200 million per quarter from non-hardware sales of content, services and taking bigger cuts of sales from the iTMS then 'X' could be ported to multiple platforms with the potential to make Apple even more revenue from Software available to 95% of the computing market.
Lemon Bon Bon [/B]
Apple would effectively lose its lustre as a company if they got rid of hardware from their product offering. I really believe that if Steve does indeed play his cards right, Apple could end up being one of the fastest growing companies within a short time period, ever. With so much to draw people in, with so much convenience, and problems solved-There would be no better choice financially, technologically, and mentally than chosing Apple to be your digital age provider.