Kerry Crushes Bush
Kerry crushes Bush 52-44 in the latest USA Today/CNN/Gallup poll. I haven't seen the other polls for this stage of the race, so it would be interesting to see how Kerry matches up on average. Regardless, this is not good news for the President. At this stage in the race Kerry wins by 8% among even likely voters. A couple of things:
1) I think we can finally put to bed the myth that George W. Bush is a "popular wartime President." How can a "popular" President poll so low? Yes, John Kerry is coming off a string of decisive primary wins and that undoubtedly has some effect. But I think if you actually look at the average poll data graphed over the length of his presidency, you'll see that Bush's popularity isn't that good. Spikes in his reelect numbers correspond exactly with September 11th, the Iraq War, and the capture of Saddam Hussein. They rapidly fall off after that. So barring the capture of Osama Bin Laden or another national tragedy, it's not likely we'll see very high numbers again.
2) If the vote were held today, Kerry wins by a large margin! Bush's low numbers have already forced him to start his campaign early. He can no-longer afford to stay above the political fray as President because he's losing in the polls.
Anyway, discuss, rejoice, throw a hissy fit. That's your prerogative.
1) I think we can finally put to bed the myth that George W. Bush is a "popular wartime President." How can a "popular" President poll so low? Yes, John Kerry is coming off a string of decisive primary wins and that undoubtedly has some effect. But I think if you actually look at the average poll data graphed over the length of his presidency, you'll see that Bush's popularity isn't that good. Spikes in his reelect numbers correspond exactly with September 11th, the Iraq War, and the capture of Saddam Hussein. They rapidly fall off after that. So barring the capture of Osama Bin Laden or another national tragedy, it's not likely we'll see very high numbers again.
2) If the vote were held today, Kerry wins by a large margin! Bush's low numbers have already forced him to start his campaign early. He can no-longer afford to stay above the political fray as President because he's losing in the polls.
Anyway, discuss, rejoice, throw a hissy fit. That's your prerogative.
Comments
Originally posted by Scott
You should look at more polls.
You should provide links to others 'O Royal Pain in the Ass.
Originally posted by Scott
You should look at more polls.
eh? so he can get some that agree, some that disagree...then he gets no where.
http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm
most have it within the margin of error...
most with Kerry a point ahead a couple a point behind.
This is one page everyone should keep an eye on for the rest of the year.
Originally posted by ShawnJ
Kerry crushes Bush 52-44 in the latest USA Today/CNN/Gallup poll. I haven't seen the other polls for this stage of the race, so it would be interesting to see how Kerry matches up on average. Regardless, this is not good news for the President. At this stage in the race Kerry wins by 8% among even likely voters. A couple of things:
1) I think we can finally put to bed the myth that George W. Bush is a "popular wartime President." How can a "popular" President poll so low? Yes, John Kerry is coming off a string of decisive primary wins and that undoubtedly has some effect. But I think if you actually look at the average poll data graphed over the length of his presidency, you'll see that Bush's popularity isn't that good. Spikes in his reelect numbers correspond exactly with September 11th, the Iraq War, and the capture of Saddam Hussein. They rapidly fall off after that. So barring the capture of Osama Bin Laden or another national tragedy, it's not likely we'll see very high numbers again.
2) If the vote were held today, Kerry wins by a large margin! Bush's low numbers have already forced him to start his campaign early. He can no-longer afford to stay above the political fray as President because he's losing in the polls.
Anyway, discuss, rejoice, throw a hissy fit. That's your prerogative.
Thanks ShawnJ!
You just made my day.
High Five!
Originally posted by chu_bakka
http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm
I see a trend there 8)
everyone is aware of who Bush is, his plusses and his minuses.
no one (outside of the truly interested) knows anything about Kerry yet. whatever skeletons he has will come out of the closet, no question.
in 4 months, things will be more interesting.
The poll cannot be dismissed. However, it needs to be put in historical context.
From Gallup:
Notice the huge margin for Dukakis in July. I believe it was 17 points.
The above is probably more what this one will look like. 8 points is simply not significant at this point. It does show that this is going to be much closer than anyone thought a year ago. At least it seems so (and yes, I include myself in that).
Secondly, I think the media blitz for Kerry has been underestimated in terms of its effect. He's had 24 hour free positive advertising for 2 months. Bush has only begun to respond. Though the Dems are happy to have a nominee that's not bruised and battered (as we thought could happen), some political analysts are now saying this could actually be bad for Kerry.
Why? Kerry is largely untested. Since Dean's meltdown, Kerry's been sailing. He's faced no real opposition. However, that is all about to change. He's about to endure a $150 million assault at the hands of the brilliant political strategist, Karl Rove. Had Kerry not been assured nomination until, say, April or May, he'd deflect Bush's attack and force Bush to hold off longer. In the meantime, the Democratic field would be free to lob grenades at Bush for months, pulling his numbers down further. Bush can now unload on Kerry, with what amounts to equivalent of unlimited funds. Kerry cannot possbily match Bush financially for even three months, much less six.
But there's more: Kerry's campaign message is still basically "Let's beat George". For the most part he's running an anti-Bush campaign. He's attacked Bush on jobs, Iraq, the deficit, international alliances, the WOT, education....everything. It's been quite effective according to the polls. The problem is, these attacks have been played by Kerry's free media almost ad nauseum, due to the news media covering the primary season. It's very possible that voters may tire of this approach or simply become immune to the same attacks (and that's assuming the attacks are valid...not all of them are). At some point Kerry needs to put the negativity away and lay out an agenda. Bush, by contrast, has not yet even begun to attack Kerry (and there is going to be a lot to attack, from Kerry's duplicitous voting record and public statements, to his anti-war associations, to his votes against intelligence funding and the $87B war funding request....the list goes on).
I'm not sure Kerry's actually in such a good position right now.
Originally posted by Crusader
If you don't vote, you really can't complain.
Not even about the circumstances that prevented you from voting ?