Maybe US job growth isn't all that robust...
I stumbled across this in the New York Post:
Source
As Johnny Carson would say "Weird wild stuff..." I guess I'm counted in the job growth numbers because I rebuilt a transmission for a friend of mine. Cool they can count me this month as well because I have a 302 I'm about ready to sell...
Quote:
WHAT ARE THEY SMOKING AT THE LABOR DEPT.?
By JOHN CRUDELE
\t
May 11, 2004 -- DON'T get too excited about all those new jobs that were supposed to have been created in April.
I'm not going to waste a lot of my precious space on this, but the bottom line is that most of the 288,000 jobs that the Labor Department says were created last month may not really exist.
They could be figments of statisticians' optimism.
Anyone who plodded through my column last Thursday knows I predicted that job growth in April would be better than the 160,000 to 170,000 jobs that the "pros" were anticipating.
But I also said, quite emphatically I hope, that the stronger growth would be an illusion - the result of the Labor Department's computers making happy predictions about seasonal job creation that could neither be verified nor justified.
I'll explain one aspect.
Back in the March employment report, the government added 153,000 positions to its revised total of 337,000 new jobs because it thought (but couldn't prove) loads of new companies were being created in this economy.
That estimate comes from the Labor Department's "birth/death model." You can look up these numbers on the Department's Web site.
As staggering as the assumption about new companies was in March, the Labor Department got even more brazen in April.
Last Friday, it was disclosed that these imaginary jobs had been increased by 117,000 to 270,000 for the latest month - because, I guess, the stat jockeys got a vision from the gods of spring.
Without those extra 117,000 make-believe jobs, the total growth for April would have been just 171,000 - sub-par for an economy that's supposed to be growing at more than 4 percent a year, but right on the pros' targets.
Take away all 270,000 make-believe jobs and, well, you have the sort of pessimism that the political pollsters are seeing.
If I was the suspicious type (and if I thought Washington was smart enough), I'd suspect a nasty motive behind the sudden surge in these mystery jobs. But for now, let's just acknowledge their existence.
Also keep in mind that the government doesn't distinguish between good companies being created and, say, a guy doing consulting work out of his basement because he can't find real work.
What does this new job announcement mean in the real world?
It means there will be more pressure on the financial markets, as we've seen for a while but especially since last Thursday.
It also means that the Federal Reserve now has the excuse it needs to raise interest rates in June (as I've said before would happen) and will probably start regretting that move by the end of the summer.
And President Bush will probably give in to temptation and start crowing about the economy, going against the mood, as captured by pollsters.
This will make him look as out of touch with reality as his father did.
WHAT ARE THEY SMOKING AT THE LABOR DEPT.?
By JOHN CRUDELE
\t
May 11, 2004 -- DON'T get too excited about all those new jobs that were supposed to have been created in April.
I'm not going to waste a lot of my precious space on this, but the bottom line is that most of the 288,000 jobs that the Labor Department says were created last month may not really exist.
They could be figments of statisticians' optimism.
Anyone who plodded through my column last Thursday knows I predicted that job growth in April would be better than the 160,000 to 170,000 jobs that the "pros" were anticipating.
But I also said, quite emphatically I hope, that the stronger growth would be an illusion - the result of the Labor Department's computers making happy predictions about seasonal job creation that could neither be verified nor justified.
I'll explain one aspect.
Back in the March employment report, the government added 153,000 positions to its revised total of 337,000 new jobs because it thought (but couldn't prove) loads of new companies were being created in this economy.
That estimate comes from the Labor Department's "birth/death model." You can look up these numbers on the Department's Web site.
As staggering as the assumption about new companies was in March, the Labor Department got even more brazen in April.
Last Friday, it was disclosed that these imaginary jobs had been increased by 117,000 to 270,000 for the latest month - because, I guess, the stat jockeys got a vision from the gods of spring.
Without those extra 117,000 make-believe jobs, the total growth for April would have been just 171,000 - sub-par for an economy that's supposed to be growing at more than 4 percent a year, but right on the pros' targets.
Take away all 270,000 make-believe jobs and, well, you have the sort of pessimism that the political pollsters are seeing.
If I was the suspicious type (and if I thought Washington was smart enough), I'd suspect a nasty motive behind the sudden surge in these mystery jobs. But for now, let's just acknowledge their existence.
Also keep in mind that the government doesn't distinguish between good companies being created and, say, a guy doing consulting work out of his basement because he can't find real work.
What does this new job announcement mean in the real world?
It means there will be more pressure on the financial markets, as we've seen for a while but especially since last Thursday.
It also means that the Federal Reserve now has the excuse it needs to raise interest rates in June (as I've said before would happen) and will probably start regretting that move by the end of the summer.
And President Bush will probably give in to temptation and start crowing about the economy, going against the mood, as captured by pollsters.
This will make him look as out of touch with reality as his father did.
Source
As Johnny Carson would say "Weird wild stuff..." I guess I'm counted in the job growth numbers because I rebuilt a transmission for a friend of mine. Cool they can count me this month as well because I have a 302 I'm about ready to sell...
Comments
Guess we're all to busy trying to find or keep our jobs to care...
I got another interview tomorrow...wish me luck. Maybe I can really push them stats up...
and my Unemployment just ran out!
and I'm so depressed I can't make art enough to get a decent job next cycle (February). . . at least that's how it feels . . boohoo me!
Lachlan's daddy won't be happy...
From my experience helping my wife find a job, April was a very dry month for my wife. Very few new job positions in her field, and she didn't get one call from a job recruiter. This month so far seems a little bit better, but not much. Maybe it'll be better in June.
Artman--Hope your interview went well.
ppflam--Sorry to hear that. Hopefully you'll find something in your chosen field soon. If not you could always get a manufacturing job (at BK). Just kidding.
kneelbeforezod--Yeah, the geatest tool against the neo-cons (I'm a traditional conservative so I hate these chuckle-heads as much as liberals do) is their own publications and words. A lot of Neo-con rags have deviated from the talking points. You just have to read their pubs to find the deviations.
THT--Hopefully your wife will find gainful employment soon as well. My head hunter has left me high and dry as well. If I want to relocate I could get a job, but here in the Detroit area I'm having trouble finding a job that suits me. I don't want to relocate because I'm going to school here, and I live in the Motor City after all (a gear-head nirvana).
trick fall--Mmmmmm COLA. Yeah I agree.
Originally posted by faust9
A reply to all in one fell swoop.
Artman--Hope your interview went well.
Don't know the half of it...well, here goes...They scheduled the meeting on the 20th. I get a call yesterday (9:00 AM in the morning...my first day off in a WEEK) that they wanted to reschedule it.
Okay...when?
"Instead of 10:00 AM the 20th...how about 3:00 PM the 19th?"
Okay, I'm off...that'll do...thanks, goodbye...see you then...hang up and go back to sleep...
30 minutes later...RING...
"I'm sorry, can we re-reschedule the interview? THIS FRIDAY, at 10:00PM?"
Okay, fine...I can do that...no problem, bye....Zzzzz...
Hour goes by...RING....
"I'm sorry Art, you must think I'm really incompetent but I need to change the appointment to 3:00PM friday....is that ok? I'm sorry....I have a meeting in the mor-"
no problem, thanks, I understand....
I go to the interview. Easy more or less to get there. Train then a bus. I get there and wait about a half hour. She finally invites me to her office. Now I'll reveal what this position was for...a newspaper graphic design job (one of those dozen papers owned by a corporation elsewhere).
She seems to be...ill...she tells me that she was in a head on collision today...the car is totaled and she's gotten sick twice and her back/body is in pain...
Now about the job...Monday and Tuesdays are BUSY...probably would work from 8:30 AM to 10:30 - 11:00PM (well, if anything else hasn't made me walk out of this interview...this should have...that bus only runs 'til 7:00 PM...and the walk to the train station is about 4 miles away...).
Then she says that the job doesn't pay too well...but the rest of the week is pretty laid back...unless we don't get other work...which we usually do...."I might want you to work as a manager...or also the web stuff we sometimes get...might be a little more in pay...but I can't promise anything".
Then she sends me to get "tested" on Quark 4.1.1...I do ok...but I'm informed she's gone...left home...20 something chick comes over...
"Can you come back Monday and finish the test?"
Uh, no. I work monday...
"Oh, I would suggest you'd try to get here. We're working late on Mondays...maybe 9:00 PM? These positions go pretty fast, so the earlier the better."
I'll see what I can do....(remember the bus schedule...)
Well, from this BRIEF overview of my experience today...what the fuck would YOU do...
Another depressing day. Know why people aren't getting jobs? It's not because they are incompetents...
THE EMPLOYERS ARE FUCKIN' IDIOTS!.
Originally posted by Artman @_@
Don't know the half of it...well, here goes...They scheduled the meeting on the 20th. I get a call yesterday (9:00 AM in the morning...my first day off in a WEEK) that they wanted to reschedule it.
Okay...when?
"Instead of 10:00 AM the 20th...how about 3:00 PM the 19th?"
Okay, I'm off...that'll do...thanks, goodbye...see you then...hang up and go back to sleep...
30 minutes later...RING...
"I'm sorry, can we re-reschedule the interview? THIS FRIDAY, at 10:00PM?"
Okay, fine...I can do that...no problem, bye....Zzzzz...
Hour goes by...RING....
"I'm sorry Art, you must think I'm really incompetent but I need to change the appointment to 3:00PM friday....is that ok? I'm sorry....I have a meeting in the mor-"
no problem, thanks, I understand....
I go to the interview. Easy more or less to get there. Train then a bus. I get there and wait about a half hour. She finally invites me to her office. Now I'll reveal what this position was for...a newspaper graphic design job (one of those dozen papers owned by a corporation elsewhere).
She seems to be...ill...she tells me that she was in a head on collision today...the car is totaled and she's gotten sick twice and her back/body is in pain...
Now about the job...Monday and Tuesdays are BUSY...probably would work from 8:30 AM to 10:30 - 11:00PM (well, if anything else hasn't made me walk out of this interview...this should have...that bus only runs 'til 7:00 PM...and the walk to the train station is about 4 miles away...).
Then she says that the job doesn't pay too well...but the rest of the week is pretty laid back...unless we don't get other work...which we usually do...."I might want you to work as a manager...or also the web stuff we sometimes get...might be a little more in pay...but I can't promise anything".
Then she sends me to get "tested" on Quark 4.1.1...I do ok...but I'm informed she's gone...left home...20 something chick comes over...
"Can you come back Monday and finish the test?"
Uh, no. I work monday...
"Oh, I would suggest you'd try to get here. We're working late on Mondays...maybe 9:00 PM? These positions go pretty fast, so the earlier the better."
I'll see what I can do....(remember the bus schedule...)
Well, from this BRIEF overview of my experience today...what the fuck would YOU do...
Another depressing day. Know why people aren't getting jobs? It's not because they are incompetents...
THE EMPLOYERS ARE FUCKIN' IDIOTS!.
Well right now employers can pick and choose more than they could in 1999. They can get by asking for more work and less pay (hence the increased productivity from US factories with fewer employees).
I got out of the military in 2000 and found a job in no time flat. During the interview I told my perspective boss (he too was former military) that I was going to return to school while employed and I wouldn't allow a corporation to work me the way I was in the military (long-long hours low pay). He said OK and we shook hands. My first few months there went fairly well but when the economy started to tank and layoffs were all the rage, those of us with a work ethic and a brain stayed (it was a nonunion shop) while the slackers went the way of the Dodo. Oddly enough, our run rates didn't change!?!
So fewer people were working longer hours doing more work. When the orders decreased so did the work force. I stayed. They began adjusting manpower to meet runrates based on the manpower requirements following the first round of layoffs. The gradual reduction of orders from our main customer coupled with an upswing in orders from a new customer ment that more people were layed off while runrates stayed relatively constant. I was a Test Engineer and I found myself working 8Am to 7,8, or 9PM. I was doing the job of two techs who had been layed off along with my normal job of test development. I went from owning one system to having primary ownership of three systems and secondary ownership of anoth two systems.
To bring my long story to a close. The company thought they could keep piling work onto the shoulders of those remaining employees because they figured we wouldn't leave (few jobs in the market and all). HA!!! I said. I got fed up and sent my "Fuck you very much" e-mail walkout resignation in July 2002 and have been unemployed ever since. I've done a lot of this and that. I've fixed cars, built engines and transmissions, installed Linux servers and other odd ball jobs when ends didn't meet. I have actively looked for employment on and off since I left my last job and I've encountered the same thing that you did. Employers now expect us to work till our fingers bleed. They are less willing to pay for experience. They are less willing supply health/dental/optical insurance... So, for the last two years I've lived off of my savings, my disability from the military (I was in a motorcycle accident and screwed my left leg up pretty badly), and my wifes income (she works for a non-profit so she makes almost nothing but she likes it).
It sucks. I refuse to be treated like a slave. I've been to a dozen'ish interviews where they expected me to though because they knew there was someone right behind me willing to work long long hours for low pay. To heck with that. I'll get my masters while I wait this job market out.
Good luck in your job search endevors though.