Post RNC: Bush Bounce

Posted:
in PoliticalOutsider edited January 2014
I'm predicting a huge Bush bounce in the polls at the completion of the RNC. Based on historical data and current events, I believe we'll see a 10 to 15 point bounce for the president.



What do you guys think?
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Comments

  • wrong robotwrong robot Posts: 3,907member
    They shouldn't call them bounces, because a bounce, by nature, goes up but then back down. Unless that is what they refer to when they talk about bounces, in which case, it's a non-issue
  • faust9faust9 Posts: 1,335member
    Why would you expect numbers so high?
  • addaboxaddabox Posts: 12,667member
    I'm with Northgate. Massive, massive bounce. Anything less would be a huge disaster for the Republicans.
  • trumptmantrumptman Posts: 16,271member
    I'm predicting 2-3% depending upon the poll.



    Nick
  • shawnjshawnj Posts: 6,656member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by addabox

    I'm with Northgate. Massive, massive bounce. Anything less would be a huge disaster for the Republicans.







    I see where you guys are going with this...
  • pfflampfflam Posts: 5,052member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by addabox

    I'm with Northgate. Massive, massive bounce. Anything less would be a huge disaster for the Republicans.



    Yeah . . . unfortunatelyt its true . . . with Schwartzy talking its a bust . . . their gonna bounce at LEAST 10% . . . virtually by their bootstraps . . .



  • northgatenorthgate Posts: 4,459member
    Unfortunately, a two to three percent bounce will be considered a failure of massive proportions for an incumbant president who enjoys the benefits of a massive war chest and the prestige of the presidency. A three percent bounce doesn't distance himself enough from Kerry and is therefore disasterous.



    However, I believe there is a massive contingent out there that wants "reassurance" from Bush in order to vote for him and they will drink up the warm-fuzzies the convention is designed to convey.



    I still say he'll enjoy a huge bounce due to the warm-fuzzies.
  • faust9faust9 Posts: 1,335member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by Northgate

    Unfortunately, a two to three percent bounce will be considered a failure of massive proportions for an incumbant president who enjoys the benefits of a massive war chest and the prestige of the presidency. A three percent bounce doesn't distance himself enough from Kerry and is therefore disasterous.



    However, I believe there is a massive contingent out there that wants "reassurance" from Bush in order to vote for him and they will drink up the warm-fuzzies the convention is designed to convey.



    I still say he'll enjoy a huge bounce due to the warm-fuzzies.




    I disagree. There are no Bushcrats to swing his way like Reagan had in the 80's. The country is 45%, 45%, 10% with the latter undecided. The last poll I saw had the 10% down to 5% or so thus the bounce will be small. This election will be decide by the party that can get the largest number of voters to get off theri lazy, apathetic asses and actually vote. The polls wont become important till October anyway IMO. Wait 'till the first debate.
  • existenceexistence Posts: 991member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by trumptman

    I'm predicting 2-3% depending upon the poll.



    Nick




    How convenient. Since 2-3% is within the margin of error (two sigma) of almost all polls, your 'prediction' is not falsifiable.
  • shetlineshetline Posts: 4,695member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by Northgate

    I'm predicting a huge Bush bounce in the polls at the completion of the RNC. Based on historical data and current events, I believe we'll see a 10 to 15 point bounce for the president.



    What do you guys think?




    I can't decide if you really believe this, or if you're trying to play the same game the Republicans tried to play on the Democrats: hype the bounce, then when (as you really expected all along) there's very little bounce, crow about how bad a sign the small bounce is.



    I think there's going to be very little bounce for Bush for the same reason there was very little for Kerry -- this is an election where most voters have already made up there minds, and there's not much swing left to swing around. It's going to take a major event, not an staged contrivance like a convention, to change any substantial number of minds at this point.
  • shetlineshetline Posts: 4,695member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by Existence

    How convenient. Since 2-3% is within the margin of error (two sigma) of almost all polls, your 'prediction' is not falsifiable.



    Sure it's falsifiable. If Bush got a 10% bounce (or 10% anti-bounce... that'd be nice) Trumptman's prediction would clearly be wrong.



    My guess is for something small like 2-3% as well. Bad enough for Kerry, however, since I think the SBVF"T" BS has knocked 2-3% off Kerry's position in the past couple of weeks. Fortunately, all of this is very volatile stuff. Whatever convention bounce Bush gets will probably evaporate soon enough.
  • pfflampfflam Posts: 5,052member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by shetline

    I can't decide if you really believe this, or if you're trying to play the same game the Republicans tried to play on the Democrats: hype the bounce, then when (as you really expected all along) there's very little bounce, crow about how bad a sign the small bounce is.

    .




    ssshhhh
  • groveratgroverat Posts: 10,872member
    This topic is just as stupid as it was before the DNC.
  • northgatenorthgate Posts: 4,459member
    Looks like I was right.



    Times Poll shows 11 point bounce.



    Bush 52%

    Kerry 41%



    Ouch.
  • shawnjshawnj Posts: 6,656member
    Hopefully just an outlier. We'll get a more complete picture when the polls come out after Labor Day.
  • common mancommon man Posts: 522member
    Come election day:



    Bush 55

    Kerry 45



    Looks like we are on our way.
  • shawnjshawnj Posts: 6,656member
    Zogby puts things in perspective
    Quote:

    ?So the battle is now engaged. I have written before about the metaphor of the bouncing rubber ball. Take a rubber ball and bounce it as hard as you can. Then the laws of physics take over. The President has gotten three preceding bounces ? each one shorter in height and duration. I think this week is the fourth bounce of the ball: this time only into the higher forties and perhaps only lasting a week or so.





    ?Remember that two weeks after the Democratic Convention of 2000, Newsweek?s cover story asked if Al Gore could be stopped. There will be leads and drops for both candidates and Kerry has to sharpen his message. At the same time, the economy is still the top issue and Friday?s unemployment figures will give us a hint as to whether the President will continue on the offensive or go back on the defensive.



  • marcukmarcuk Posts: 4,442member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by Common Man

    Come election day:



    Bush 55

    Kerry 45



    Looks like we are on our way.








  • sdw2001sdw2001 Posts: 16,215member
    Bush got an 11-to 13 point bounce. That is honestly more than I was expecting. I don't think Gore ever held that kind of lead.



    http://www.gallup.com/content/?ci=1216



    Bush held a bigger lead and it went away, though. That's interesting.
  • brussellbrussell Posts: 9,812member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by SDW2001

    Bush got an 11-to 13 point bounce. That is honestly more than I was expecting. I don't think Gore ever held that kind of lead.



    http://www.gallup.com/content/?ci=1216



    Bush held a bigger lead and it went away, though. That's interesting.




    Maybe he will win all 50 states after all.
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