The Oil Crash and Computing
So here we are, at the top of the oil production plateau looking at the big slide down the back side of cheap plentiful oil. WTF am I talking about?
Read this:
http://lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/
If you don't want to read that then try any one of the thousands of sites discussing the subject of Peak Oil. Go ahead Google "Peak Oil". I got 413,000 hits, how many did you get? And it isn't just conspiracy crazies this time. It's being talked about everywhere. Congress, the news programs, CSPAN. Hell even Jack Bristow brought it up during dinner conversation on a recent episode of "Alias".
So what this means is that finally people are starting to talk about what happens to our economy, our culture and our lives when we start to run out of oil. Wait let me be more specific: When we run out of cheap plentiful oil.
So I'm asking: "what happens to computing and computers when oil costs $450 a barrel?"
For starters, a computer which is composed from a great deal of plastic will naturally suffer a price increase. Then there is the chip fab process. Huge amounts of energy go into making chips. What will happen when electricity quadruples in price and so do the chips? Oh yes then there is the electricity the computer uses to operate. That's gonna go up, way up. Hmm, what about the internet? How much power does it take to keep the internet up an running? Uhh, there is a lot of argument about that, but the safe sumber is 2% of all U.S. elelctricity production goes to running the internet. Don't believe the sumbers that say it is 8-13% those are completely wrong. But still, 2% is a giant amount of elelctricity. Massive. Raise the price of electrons and your ISP will gladly pass that along to you. Why will power cost more? When oil prices get high we will try other energy and raw material sources. Natural gas demand will spike. 20% of all U.S. electrical power comes from gas fired power plants.
So. In a mild case of oil crash computing, surfing, shopping . . . everything will cost more. New equipment will be much more efficient, but the bottom line is that computing will cost more and we will probably do it a lot less.
In a doomsday case of oil crash, computers will go away completely along with all the associated industries. Finally we can get RID of Microsoft!
Wow. Change is a comin', scary scary change.
I better play as much Halo as I can before I get charged on a per game basis!
Read this:
http://lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/
If you don't want to read that then try any one of the thousands of sites discussing the subject of Peak Oil. Go ahead Google "Peak Oil". I got 413,000 hits, how many did you get? And it isn't just conspiracy crazies this time. It's being talked about everywhere. Congress, the news programs, CSPAN. Hell even Jack Bristow brought it up during dinner conversation on a recent episode of "Alias".
So what this means is that finally people are starting to talk about what happens to our economy, our culture and our lives when we start to run out of oil. Wait let me be more specific: When we run out of cheap plentiful oil.
So I'm asking: "what happens to computing and computers when oil costs $450 a barrel?"
For starters, a computer which is composed from a great deal of plastic will naturally suffer a price increase. Then there is the chip fab process. Huge amounts of energy go into making chips. What will happen when electricity quadruples in price and so do the chips? Oh yes then there is the electricity the computer uses to operate. That's gonna go up, way up. Hmm, what about the internet? How much power does it take to keep the internet up an running? Uhh, there is a lot of argument about that, but the safe sumber is 2% of all U.S. elelctricity production goes to running the internet. Don't believe the sumbers that say it is 8-13% those are completely wrong. But still, 2% is a giant amount of elelctricity. Massive. Raise the price of electrons and your ISP will gladly pass that along to you. Why will power cost more? When oil prices get high we will try other energy and raw material sources. Natural gas demand will spike. 20% of all U.S. electrical power comes from gas fired power plants.
So. In a mild case of oil crash computing, surfing, shopping . . . everything will cost more. New equipment will be much more efficient, but the bottom line is that computing will cost more and we will probably do it a lot less.
In a doomsday case of oil crash, computers will go away completely along with all the associated industries. Finally we can get RID of Microsoft!
Wow. Change is a comin', scary scary change.
I better play as much Halo as I can before I get charged on a per game basis!
Comments
Okay, don't say I didn't warn you folks.
Originally posted by Hiro
It's a hoax first based on a early '70s bogus study published by a group wanting "scientific" evidence to back up their claim society was rapidly coming to an end. They made a comeback when they found the web in the late '90s. Now they just get more naive readers every six months or so. Just search "peak oil". Nothing new here.
Hmm, well actually most of what you said is wrong.
The legitimate discussion of Peak Oil is based on the legitimate research of the late Dr. M. King Hubbert a Shell Oil geophysicist. No it isn't new, but it is beginning to come into effect. Even the Bush administration is aware of the issue and has concerns about it.
It has been discussed in Congress recently, it has been on CSpan and other news venues. You are stunningly naive if you think oil will last forever. Do you think that the natural decrease in production combined with the increase in demand (China & India) will have no effect?
This isn't Cold Fusion or Zero Point Energy. This is simple supply and demand. Again, it isn't new, but it is something that can't be ignored.
Originally posted by hardeeharhar
WelshDog... your threatening tone will get you nowhere fast....
Not sure how I was threatening. Strident maybe, but not threatening.
Originally posted by hardeeharhar
[joke] listen, we americans don't use terms like strident...[/joke]
Oops yeah forgot. Strident is pimple cream isn't it?
Originally posted by Hiro
It's a hoax first based on a early '70s bogus study published by a group wanting "scientific" evidence to back up their claim society was rapidly coming to an end. They made a comeback when they found the web in the late '90s. Now they just get more naive readers every six months or so. Just search "peak oil". Nothing new here.
No, it isn't. It's supported by very many eminent geophysicists, engineers and oil industry executives. It is very scary shit, and you would do well to google for the uppsala protocol and find out why even your government is sending delegations to research bodies.
Would you care to provide a link debunking peak oil?
Would you care to provide a link about this bogus study or which group wanted fake evidence to back up some claim of the end of society?
Go on. Scare yourself.
2. Bio Fuel usage will cause massive famine in the 3rd world, which will cut fuel demands, and also will provide significant energy without changing the CO2 numbers in the atmosphere.
3. Solar towers can provide a boatload of energy, which can be converted to fuel:
http://www.wentworth.nsw.gov.au/solartower/
Originally posted by e1618978
1. The tar sands numbers are way off in the article. Tar sand production will be able to supply all of North America in just a few years, and tar sand oil production is profitable at $20/barrel (and gets more profitable the higher the oil price gets).
2. Bio Fuel usage will cause massive famine in the 3rd world, which will cut fuel demands, and also will provide significant energy without changing the CO2 numbers in the atmosphere.
3. Solar towers can provide a boatload of energy, which can be converted to fuel:
http://www.wentworth.nsw.gov.au/solartower/
It does look like the potential of tar sands is improving, but I think we are still facing a lot of change. I don't think the doomsday scenario will happen, but I do think that we all will experience changes in how we use energy and petroleum. Some of the changes will be easy and some will be hard. The point of my original post was to discuss how this petro-turmoil will efffect our computers. I guess that remains to be seen.
Maybe biological computers will be the future. Just feed it some sugar and a little milk and your laptop will run for hours and hours. Don't forget to give it a potty break!
Originally posted by WelshDog
Hmm, well actually most of what you said is wrong.
The legitimate discussion of Peak Oil is based on the legitimate research of the late Dr. M. King Hubbert a Shell Oil geophysicist. No it isn't new, but it is beginning to come into effect. Even the Bush administration is aware of the issue and has concerns about it.
It has been discussed in Congress recently, it has been on CSpan and other news venues. You are stunningly naive if you think oil will last forever. Do you think that the natural decrease in production combined with the increase in demand (China & India) will have no effect?
This isn't Cold Fusion or Zero Point Energy. This is simple supply and demand. Again, it isn't new, but it is something that can't be ignored.
Oil won't last forever, the peak oil hoax isn't about oil lasting or not. It is a cultist armageddon tool. There is no legitimate science there and ALL the original projections are proven bogus. Just our being here has proven that. Redefining the terms on the fly to keep it fresh hardly constitutes science either.
If you want to discuss energy policy, you need to start with something that wasn't originated by the Club of Rome.
Originally posted by WelshDog
It does look like the potential of tar sands is improving, but I think we are still facing a lot of change. I don't think the doomsday scenario will happen, but I do think that we all will experience changes in how we use energy and petroleum. Some of the changes will be easy and some will be hard. The point of my original post was to discuss how this petro-turmoil will efffect our computers. I guess that remains to be seen.
Maybe biological computers will be the future. Just feed it some sugar and a little milk and your laptop will run for hours and hours. Don't forget to give it a potty break!
This I can buy, well the first paragraph at least.
Originally posted by Hiro
Oil won't last forever, the peak oil hoax isn't about oil lasting or not. It is a cultist armageddon tool. There is no legitimate science there and ALL the original projections are proven bogus. Just our being here has proven that. Redefining the terms on the fly to keep it fresh hardly constitutes science either.
If you want to discuss energy policy, you need to start with something that wasn't originated by the Club of Rome.
Okay, let's not use the term "Peak OIl" since you have issues with that. Let's just talk about what is going to happen as cheap plentiful oil become less cheap and less plentiful. That is going to happen regardless of what the Club of Rome says (whoever the flip they are). This is all Hubbert was trying to predict and he did that a long time ago and he was not a "cultist". Things have changed since that time, but his point is still well taken - somethings gotta give.
Some of the predictions being thrown about make sense. A lot of them do not. They are only predictions after all. A missed prediction is not a reason to call people cultists.
At least we are talking about it and that is a start.
Thomas Friedman says we need $4 a gallon gasoline to get us on the right track. What do you think about that?
Originally posted by WelshDog
....
So I'm asking: "what happens to computing and computers when oil costs $450 a barrel?"
.......
I better play as much Halo as I can before I get charged on a per game basis!
dude, you can bet that if oil costs hit something insane like that, they'll be selling solar power units out the wazoo to power your computer, etc etc.
as for the internet, service providers and data centers will also have to turn to renewables.
human beings are resourceful motherf-- make that planetf8ckers.
Originally posted by sunilraman
dude, you can bet that if oil costs hit something insane like that, they'll be selling solar power units out the wazoo to power your computer, etc etc.
as for the internet, service providers and data centers will also have to turn to renewables.
human beings are resourceful motherf-- make that planetf8ckers.
Or they could just turn to Coal, which is the major energy source already. Computers will barely notice the oil prices. Cars will, the plastics industry will but oil doesn't actually provide staggering amounts of power plant electricity in this day and age (around 6 or 7% worldwide and <5% in the US and most other developed nations).
Originally posted by Scott
When will you people realize that the sky is falling. Just like last time!
Not until December 21st, 2012, mark your calendar.
Originally posted by Scott
When will you people realize that the sky is falling. Just like last time!
You always say this, and you never debunk it.
All mouth, no trousers.
Originally posted by Telomar
Or they could just turn to Coal, which is the major energy source already. Computers will barely notice the oil prices. Cars will, the plastics industry will but oil doesn't actually provide staggering amounts of power plant electricity in this day and age (around 6 or 7% worldwide and <5% in the US and most other developed nations).
I think you are mostly right, but the effect on computers could be fairly severe. It seems to me the price increases in plastics could translate into higer prices everywhere. Look around you. It's hard to find any product that doesn't have plastic in it some where or that isn't made from petro feedstocks. Shipping will be a big cost issue too. All those trucks and planes use oil based fuels and their costs could skyrocket.
It's all very wiggly right now and we as humans will find ways of adjusting to the change. We did it during the first oil crisis - we rapidly started using a lot less energy and thus dulled the effects oil quadrupling in price. We'll do the same thing this time, but the price of oil won't go back down like it did before.
Originally posted by Harald
You always say this, and you never debunk it.
All mouth, no trousers.
Why should I debunk guessonomics?