iPod Hi-Fi and software to help offset Intel transition woes
Analysts for MorganStanley believe volatility in Apple's shares as a result of recent component supply chain and NPD data is overblown and that the new iPod Hi-Fi and other software products should offset perceived downside that may result from the company's Intel transition.
"We think volatility from data points out of Apple?s component supply chain and point-of-sale data is overblown at this point," analyst Rebecca Runkle wrote in a recent research report that was sent to clients. "These data points don?t take into account a broader supplier base, channel inventory fill off a low base in early January, new products and additional products in the pipeline for April. "
Referring specifically to February figures release by NPD last week, the analyst believes this data does not reflect Apple's strong initial shipments of the MacBook Pro and/or sell through of the new Mac mini. Based on prior product cycles, Runkle said March could account for as much as 40 - 45 percent of the company's first quarter revenue, compared to the typical 38 percent.
"On iPods, NPD points to continued share gains," the analyst wrote. "While a simple back of the envelope sell-through calculation using NPD data points to roughly 8 million iPods this quarter, we caution investors not to overlook the 2 weeks of inventory build off of very low levels in late December [which] could add 1 million plus to Apple shipments this quarter."
While the Intel transition will continue to present volatility in supply chain/channel data, MorganStanley continues to believe long-term investors should look through near-term chatter and focus on the secular growth story. "We expect new products as early as April with another round in late Summer/early Fall," said Runkle. "In particular, we look for a large screen video iPod, full length feature film content, additional Intel-based Macs and an Apple-branded phone."
Over the next 18 months, the analyst also believes desktop virtualization could present meaningful opportunity for Apple to target an even broader consumer market if its Intel Macs indeed gain the ability to run multiple operating systems, such as Windows XP in addition to Mac OS X.
Pointing out some of the reasons to own Apple shares, Runkle noted that iLife ?06 and iPod accessories sales should help offset the Intel Mac transition risk during the current quarter, while new products such as Intel iBooks, full length films via iTunes and possibly a 2nd generation video iPod could help boost sales in the following quarter. She also believes there may be some potential earnings-per-share (EPS) upside despite the perceived Intel transition woes.
MorganStanley is maintaining its estimates of $4.67 billion in revenue and 39 cents EPS for the current quarter. However, the firm is tweaking its model a bit to account for a downshift in Macs from 1.2 million 1.1 million units. It's also adjusting iPods estimates from 9.9 million to 9.0 million units, but at a higher average selling price due to an improved iPod mix that includes some of Apple's pricier players.
The firm, which maintains an "overweight" rating and $90 price target on Apple shares, believes further upside to its estimates may exist if Apple management can hit its guidance on gross margin and operating expenses.
"We think volatility from data points out of Apple?s component supply chain and point-of-sale data is overblown at this point," analyst Rebecca Runkle wrote in a recent research report that was sent to clients. "These data points don?t take into account a broader supplier base, channel inventory fill off a low base in early January, new products and additional products in the pipeline for April. "
Referring specifically to February figures release by NPD last week, the analyst believes this data does not reflect Apple's strong initial shipments of the MacBook Pro and/or sell through of the new Mac mini. Based on prior product cycles, Runkle said March could account for as much as 40 - 45 percent of the company's first quarter revenue, compared to the typical 38 percent.
"On iPods, NPD points to continued share gains," the analyst wrote. "While a simple back of the envelope sell-through calculation using NPD data points to roughly 8 million iPods this quarter, we caution investors not to overlook the 2 weeks of inventory build off of very low levels in late December [which] could add 1 million plus to Apple shipments this quarter."
While the Intel transition will continue to present volatility in supply chain/channel data, MorganStanley continues to believe long-term investors should look through near-term chatter and focus on the secular growth story. "We expect new products as early as April with another round in late Summer/early Fall," said Runkle. "In particular, we look for a large screen video iPod, full length feature film content, additional Intel-based Macs and an Apple-branded phone."
Over the next 18 months, the analyst also believes desktop virtualization could present meaningful opportunity for Apple to target an even broader consumer market if its Intel Macs indeed gain the ability to run multiple operating systems, such as Windows XP in addition to Mac OS X.
Pointing out some of the reasons to own Apple shares, Runkle noted that iLife ?06 and iPod accessories sales should help offset the Intel Mac transition risk during the current quarter, while new products such as Intel iBooks, full length films via iTunes and possibly a 2nd generation video iPod could help boost sales in the following quarter. She also believes there may be some potential earnings-per-share (EPS) upside despite the perceived Intel transition woes.
MorganStanley is maintaining its estimates of $4.67 billion in revenue and 39 cents EPS for the current quarter. However, the firm is tweaking its model a bit to account for a downshift in Macs from 1.2 million 1.1 million units. It's also adjusting iPods estimates from 9.9 million to 9.0 million units, but at a higher average selling price due to an improved iPod mix that includes some of Apple's pricier players.
The firm, which maintains an "overweight" rating and $90 price target on Apple shares, believes further upside to its estimates may exist if Apple management can hit its guidance on gross margin and operating expenses.
Comments
Just bought more the other day, and if I had more money I'd buy more now.
Over 4X in a couple of years, not bad!
Wow, people are actually buying tweeter-less iPod "Hi-Fi"? As another shareholder, any good Apple news is good for me, but I am surprised.
Have you listened to the 'Hi-Fi'? It sounds quite good and most reviews agree the sound is amazing.
Originally posted by howyoudoin
Have you listened to the 'Hi-Fi'? It sounds quite good and most reviews agree the sound is amazing.
Yeah, I heard it. One of my Apple fanatic friends bought it. I thought it sounded pretty good for what it is -- a high-end "alarm clock" speaker system. But it's far cry from audiophile with weak high-end extension and so-so imaging.
Originally posted by filburt
Yeah, I heard it. One of my Apple fanatic friends bought it. I thought it sounded pretty good for what it is -- a high-end "alarm clock" speaker system. But it's far cry from audiophile with weak high-end extension and so-so imaging.
I am one of those audiophiles. I bought one of these last week. It is really pretty good. To get better smoothness and highs, remove the grill when listening.
Grills always cause problems. I always advised my customers (I designed speakers) to remove it. Recording studios never use grills on their monitors for that same reason. Apple made it veery easy to remove. Maybe for that very reason
Also the design, while admittedly looking weird on pictures is great in reality. Sleek, minimalistic and massive at the same time. Looks like a piece of furniture in my room, flatmates were amazed.
Plus, it will upgrade automatically to Wi-Fi synching when the wireless iPod is released!
Originally posted by ak1808
Plus, it will upgrade automatically to Wi-Fi synching when the wireless iPod is released!
Uhhh, it will
Yes, plug in a future wireless iPod and there you go - wireless synching for your iPod HiFi. I think that's really why they didn't bother including it.
Originally posted by howyoudoin
Have you listened to the 'Hi-Fi'? It sounds quite good and most reviews agree the sound is amazing.
It better be for $350.
While it might be a lot for THEM, for audio equipment, it's just a trifle.
so I have a question for you happy owners of an iPod hifi:
I am very tempted by the hifi and the reports of the sound quality it produces. I am on a budget but would still like to replace my aging (second hand) stereo system sometime soon. I would seriously consider buying a hifi to replace my stereo system.
But... I am seriously put off that idea as it is a single box and i somehow can't imagine that it provides a decent stereo sound image. So how is this aspect in real life experience??
Is it comparable to a decent set (same price region) of speakers placed some distance apart and sitting in front of them in the middle??
I would listen to it on my couch about 3 meters (10 feet)
in front of it, left and right side walls much further away.
Thanks for any/all feedback!
Originally posted by dutch pear
OK,
so I have a question for you happy owners of an iPod hifi:
I am very tempted by the hifi and the reports of the sound quality it produces. I am on a budget but would still like to replace my aging (second hand) stereo system sometime soon. I would seriously consider buying a hifi to replace my stereo system.
But... I am seriously put off that idea as it is a single box and i somehow can't imagine that it provides a decent stereo sound image. So how is this aspect in real life experience??
Is it comparable to a decent set (same price region) of speakers placed some distance apart and sitting in front of them in the middle??
I would listen to it on my couch about 3 meters (10 feet)
in front of it, left and right side walls much further away.
Thanks for any/all feedback!
It depends on the size of your room, and how "live" it is. A live room (one without too much sound absorbing furniture, rugs, etc.), gives a larger "soundstage". That means that it seems to be coming from a much larger source than the box itself. But it muddies the differences between the channels. Bose designs its speakers to do just that.
If your room is more on the dead side, then the soundstage will be smaller, but the difference between channels will be greater.
I would say, from trying it here, that 10 feet is a bit on the far side for the best effect. Not actually too bad though.
The advantage of its being small, and of one piece, is that it can be moved around more easily, and placed better.
Originally posted by melgross
It depends on the size of your room, and how "live" it is. A live room (one without too much sound absorbing furniture, rugs, etc.), gives a larger "soundstage". That means that it seems to be coming from a much larger source than the box itself. But it muddies the differences between the channels. Bose designs its speakers to do just that.
If your room is more on the dead side, then the soundstage will be smaller, but the difference between channels will be greater.
I would say, from trying it here, that 10 feet is a bit on the far side for the best effect. Not actually too bad though.
The advantage of its being small, and of one piece, is that it can be moved around more easily, and placed better.
With a wooden floor and not too much fluffy furniture I would say my room is about halfway "live" and "dead"
(learned some new terminology there, thanks!
Right now my speakers are 8 to 9 feet apart, so from my listening position the angle between my left and right speaker is about 90 degrees. Would you reckon the soundstage of my setup to be comparable to a hifi placed in the middle of my speakers?
The thing is, the left and right side walls are much further away (I have a rectangular living room) so i reckon i won't have much reflection of the sound from these walls that could improve the soundstage.
Originally posted by dutch pear
With a wooden floor and not too much fluffy furniture I would say my room is about halfway "live" and "dead"
(learned some new terminology there, thanks!
Right now my speakers are 8 to 9 feet apart, so from my listening position the angle between my left and right speaker is about 90 degrees. Would you reckon the soundstage of my setup to be comparable to a hifi placed in the middle of my speakers?
The thing is, the left and right side walls are much further away (I have a rectangular living room) so i reckon i won't have much reflection of the sound from these walls that could improve the soundstage.
90 degrees is too much. It should be about 60 degrees, even less, down to 45 degrees, is fine.
If you like an exaggerated stereo effect, that's ok, but then you are subject to the "hole in the middle" problem, where the central sound is weak. What happens then, is that as you move your head back and forth, the sound "beams" from one channel or the other. It's difficult to fine a proper position to listen from. A live room can lesson that somewhat. The other problem is that a singer, standing in the middle sounds spread out, and smeared.
The hifi can't duplicate speakers spread that far apart. Move them in a bit, and listen again. Try to find the minimum space that sounds fine. The hifi has a bigger soundstage then would be believed, considering its size. But, it can't be as great as a system with widely spaced spearers.
Originally posted by melgross
90 degrees is too much. It should be about 60 degrees, even less, down to 45 degrees, is fine.
If you like an exaggerated stereo effect, that's ok, but then you are subject to the "hole in the middle" problem, where the central sound is weak. What happens then, is that as you move your head back and forth, the sound "beams" from one channel or the other. It's difficult to fine a proper position to listen from. A live room can lesson that somewhat. The other problem is that a singer, standing in the middle sounds spread out, and smeared.
The hifi can't duplicate speakers spread that far apart. Move them in a bit, and listen again. Try to find the minimum space that sounds fine. The hifi has a bigger soundstage then would be believed, considering its size. But, it can't be as great as a system with widely spaced spearers.
Great, thanks a lot for taking the time for your thorough replies!!
I am even more tempted after reading your respopnse; the hifi looks to me as the best sounding option in this price range. Now I hope I can find some place in the Netherlands where I can actually go and listen to one in person!
Originally posted by dutch pear
Great, thanks a lot for taking the time for your thorough replies!!
I am even more tempted after reading your respopnse; the hifi looks to me as the best sounding option in this price range. Now I hope I can find some place in the Netherlands where I can actually go and listen to one in person!
Good luck!