[B]Before Apple entered the mp3 player market, they had never done it before. Before Boot Camp, they had never done that before. Before a lot of stuff, they were virgins to things.
[/i]
I don't think you're seeing why this is a major change. Apple has made boxed products you buy in stores where the market had already proven people are willing to go into stores and buy them before. They have a lot of experience in that area. So the MP3 player, while not an exact product Apple had sold before, was not a major change for them. It wasn't a change in business model. It wasn't ever likely to be a catastrophic failure. There were things they've done in the past that were bigger gambles that people wouldn't have described as major changes in direction, Newton and Pippin being but two.
Boot Camp is a generic utility and Apple has, indeed, made utilities before and will continue to do so. Boot Camp is not the basis of any change in business, it's a product enhancement of the type Apple is doing all the time.
None of the things you're mentioning refer to Apple undergoing a massive change in business model (the MVNO route), or else going into markets where they're beholden to other parties (carriers) or trying to sell something directly where their competitor's machines are heavily subsidized (the "sell unlocked phones" route.)
Quote:
The registered iPhone.org in '99, so what? Peter Oppenheimers latest quote about cellphones, so what? Then those strings of clues found in iPod software update, so what?
So what indeed? None of the things you're pointing at amount to Apple selling an iPod phone.
iPhone.org predates even the existance of the iPod project by a year or two. Not just the iPod, but the idea ever being approved by management. Nor is it a realistic choice of domain name for Apple marketing a cellphone, it's a .org for one thing.
Peter Oppenheimer's comments, as I pointed out, were not clear one way or another and only point at Apple dealing with the changing market. One way they might deal with that is producing an iPod Cellphone.
The strings in the iPod software update, as I've said before, don't really make any sense. Think about it, for crying out loud: you're saying Apple is going to build a cellphone that uses the iPod's operating system. A cellphone. An MP3 player's operating system.
How does that make sense? It doesn't make sense. It's not even close to making sense. It makes zero sense. It's bizarre. It's ridiculous.
Quote:
If you actually think Apple is not actually working on a phone, I think your crazy. If Apple actually is not working on a phone, then Apple is crazy.
If Apple is working on a phone, then there's a good chance they are crazy. If they're working with another company like Nokia or Motorola, then yeah, I can see that working.
But a phone of their own, with the intent to try to sell unlocked phones (buy a $500 iPhone to replace the phone you got for free that's not significantly worse and works fine. Uh-huh.), or make themselves slaves of Cingular or Verizon, in an industry in which the carriers are notorious control freaks who'll refuse to subsidize and market a phone they can't "customize" for maximum profitibility first), or start an entire MVNO, a massive and dramatic change in business model they're completely unfamiliar with?
No: that's crazy. Whacko. Apple thinks different, and maybe they'll do it, and perhaps they'll even pull it off; but we can't pretend they'd not be crazy for trying. It's not logical. It's not a logical next step, there's nothing logical about it. If I had stock in Apple, and they announced an iPhone, I'd sell everything I had.
The logical next step is actually licensing. If Apple is scared of hybrid devices winning out, Apple's best shot is taking advantage of their iTMS market lock and reputation, and building a front end and possibly a chipset that Nokia, Motorola, et al, can just build into their existing designs.
From their point of view, they lose a little control on the end-user experience, but they continue to have over-all control over the market, they don't limit themselves to one or two carriers who control them rather than vice-versa.
There's a lot of wishful thinking in this thread. People want Apple to make their next cellphone. Everything Apple does that involves the word "phone" is interpreted through those glasses. In truth, the signs remain ambiguous, and there are damned good reasons why such a move would be a disaster for Apple.
@ peharri, I basically disagree with everything you just said.
"If I had stock in Apple, and they announced an iPhone, I'd sell everything I had."
I'm sorry but that would be a stupid move. If Apple got a few percent of the cellphone market, which they easily would, it would mean billions in sales. That and phones will eventually eat up the iPod. Apple will eat into the iPod sales with "the IPhone" rather than them letting someone else do it, and as a result they will actually grow. If you don't change in this industry, you die. And now a days change is more frequent.
Apple will bring "something else" to this market. My guess it will involve .mac integration and wifi. Apple is used to closed systems look at OS X and the end of the clones.
Apple can buy huge chunks of time and run a MVNO as a value added service.
The release of the Verizon Chocolate is a shape of things to come.
Couple a move into smartphones/music phones and you have ipod competition nipping at Apple's heels.
No, I am betting on an iphone release. Perhaps with a slimmed down OS X mobile (widgets?)
Apple will bring "something else" to this market. My guess it will involve .mac integration and wifi. Apple is used to closed systems look at OS X and the end of the clones.
Apple can buy huge chunks of time and run a MVNO as a value added service.
The release of the Verizon Chocolate is a shape of things to come.
Couple a move into smartphones/music phones and you have ipod competition nipping at Apple's heels.
No, I am betting on an iphone release. Perhaps with a slimmed down OS X mobile (widgets?)
I agree! Apple may also offer iChat integration, and iChat may go Windows too, as iTunes did. That would give them huge opportunities
Think of the marketing campaign: iPhone + iChat + iTunes, imagine the possibilities.
@ peharri, I basically disagree with everything you just said.
"If I had stock in Apple, and they announced an iPhone, I'd sell everything I had."
I'm sorry but that would be a stupid move. If Apple got a few percent of the cellphone market, which they easily would, it would mean billions in sales.
If Apple got into the MVNO market, it would mean a few millions in sales offset by losses. It's questionable they could make it work. They'd be one MVNO amongst many, using it to sell one phone when every other MVNO is buying mass manufactured phones off the shelf. Plug in the numbers: how does it work?
If Apple tried to sell phones via the carriers, they'd lose control over the way the phones are produced and marketed. They'd still face some substantial competition from companies that make far more phones than they do. The result would be Apple being at the whim of a small number of companies that would drop them in an instant if they feel they can market a competitor's product more effectively. The end result is probably massive losses.
If Apple tried to go it alone, and sell unlocked cellphones directly to the public, then they'd have warehouses full of unsold cellphones.
Quote:
That and phones will eventually eat up the iPod. Apple will eat into the iPod sales with "the IPhone" rather than them letting someone else do it, and as a result they will actually grow. If you don't change in this industry, you die. And now a days change is more frequent.
Change is required. The suicidal changes you're proposing are not. As I said, the logical thing for Apple to do involves licensing.
In the end, they may try to make a phone, but their chances of succeeding in that market are close to zero. They're better off working with other companies, licensing the technology and getting a cut of the end result, rather than sullying their reputation and profits by investing billions in a near-certain disaster.
As it stands, the "messages in the firmware" thing doesn't, actually, make a lot of sense as evidence of a phone. To assume this is what it is, we have to assume that Apple is extending an MP3 player to incorporate mobile phone technology, or else using MP3 player firmware as the basis of a cellphone operating system. Does anyone else not think that's slightly odd?
Gotta remember (or research) the history my friend...
The OS used in the iPod was obtained from ____?
The answer is of course PIXO.
Pixo a Cupertino based company that (imagine this) was founded by a long time but ex-Apple Employee and (in the beginning) was staffed by many other ex-Apple hires.
Guess what Pixo was involved in and I'll give you a HUGE hint, the answer is NOT A
A: MP3 Software
B: Enhanced VRML Porn
C: Cell Phone Software
Oh, but whatever deal Apple did make with Pixo it must have included access to the Pixo source (since Apple has since done it's own OS updates and has hired up more than a few ex-Pixo employees after the dotcom layoffs- or so I've read) and Pixo the company is now owned by Sun given Pixo's heavy involvement/expertise in Java on embedded systems.
If Apple licensed RIM technology and put out its own phone with the above discussed features I am sure that there will be quite a market with the cracberry users out there.
I, like many others here, am getting irritated with everyone who is crying with joy at the possibility of Apple making their own cell phone.
But unlike them, I do think that iPhone exists and is coming soon. Not as a cellphone -that involves far too many different network types and a whole new way of selling devices. I think it will be an application on the iPod.
Think about it. Add A2DP and produce either a wired remote with a mic in it, or a wireless headset. If you store all your contacts in the AddressBook on your Mac, these are transferred to your iPod. Integrate all this, and you can make calls from your scroll wheel without taking the phone out of your pocket. I'd even go as far as betting the combination lock feature on the new iPods is Apple testing inputing numbers old-skool rotary phone style.
Integrate all this, and you can make calls from your scroll wheel without taking the phone out of your pocket. I'd even go as far as betting the combination lock feature on the new iPods is Apple testing inputing numbers old-skool rotary phone style.
No, I think that if apple were to enter this market they would enter it with a really innovative new product not simply an upgrade to the ipod. It may be ipod OS based however, it will not BE an ipod.
Think about it. Add A2DP and produce either a wired remote with a mic in it, or a wireless headset. If you store all your contacts in the AddressBook on your Mac, these are transferred to your iPod. Integrate all this, and you can make calls from your scroll wheel without taking the phone out of your pocket. I'd even go as far as betting the combination lock feature on the new iPods is Apple testing inputing numbers old-skool rotary phone style.
Just my 2c.
David
Two things: 1. How do you see the numbers you're scrolling through with your in-line remote? 2. What about when you unplug your headphones? Did you ever hold your iPod to your hear? It's uncomfortable.
If Nokia can have great success with their implementation of WebKit for their smartphone browser, I imagine that Apple could do far better.
The only issue is text entry. Without a dedicated keyboard, is there any better solution that is low on the frustration scale? I can't really envision it, which would be a great innovation if Apple can.
If Nokia can have great success with their implementation of WebKit for their smartphone browser, I imagine that Apple could do far better.
The only issue is text entry. Without a dedicated keyboard, is there any better solution that is low on the frustration scale? I can't really envision it, which would be a great innovation if Apple can.
If they cannot implement a touch-screen that changes from a virtual click-wheel to a virtual keypad, then a real keypad is the only other practical alternative I can see.
(don't reply by just saying that Apple might see something you don't. If you think that, then make a suggestion)
Think about this - VoIP is the big thing at the moment. I bet the mobile operators are sh!tting their pants - broadband WiFi is becoming ubiquitous - the UK government for example has just announced plans that pave the way for WiFi coverage in rural areas. Once WiFi coverage starts to approach the kind of coverage you get with a cellphone, all you need is a VoIP WiFi handset, and you have access to free worldwide phone calls.
Now, who could make a WiFi VoIP handset, I wonder ??
Maybe the same people that make the hippest, coolest music player ? The company that has the biggest online music store ? Or maybe the company that already has a strong VoIP/videoconferencing application ? Yeah - that one, the one with several billion dollars burning a hole in it's pocket....
I think you know who I mean
The time might not quite be right - yet - but when it is, and if Apple moves strongly, they could OWN mobile communications on this planet.
...and the mobile operators can kiss their extortionate call rates - and profits - goodbye !
(alternatively, they could do what Apple has traditionally done, and make a move now, before the time is ideal, and then spend several years waiting for the market to mature)
vonage is on the ropes right about now after their failed ipo.
I think that the voip phone coupled with a traditional cell service a la MVNO would get them to market first and allow some interesting uses for the technology.
"I hope Microsoft takes the time to do this right.
If they don?t Apple will have far more market share at the end of 2007 than it will if Microsoft ships a great release.
Speaking of Apple, they are readying a dizzying amount of new products. I wish I could camp out at an Apple store during the World Wide Developer Conference on August 7th. I wish I could say more, but that?d get me sued by Steve Jobs and I don?t need that kind of heck right now."
It's got to be a fake. Apple would never put the camera on the back. The whole point of putting a camera on a phone would be to have face to face conversations.
The best iPhone mockup I've seen was the one on the cover of UK MacUser recently - it was gorgeous - basically a Nano with a keypad, and a micro-scroll wheel. First iPhone design i've seen where I though "yeah - I'd buy THAT !"
Comments
Originally posted by Ireland
[B]Before Apple entered the mp3 player market, they had never done it before. Before Boot Camp, they had never done that before. Before a lot of stuff, they were virgins to things.
[/i]
I don't think you're seeing why this is a major change. Apple has made boxed products you buy in stores where the market had already proven people are willing to go into stores and buy them before. They have a lot of experience in that area. So the MP3 player, while not an exact product Apple had sold before, was not a major change for them. It wasn't a change in business model. It wasn't ever likely to be a catastrophic failure. There were things they've done in the past that were bigger gambles that people wouldn't have described as major changes in direction, Newton and Pippin being but two.
Boot Camp is a generic utility and Apple has, indeed, made utilities before and will continue to do so. Boot Camp is not the basis of any change in business, it's a product enhancement of the type Apple is doing all the time.
None of the things you're mentioning refer to Apple undergoing a massive change in business model (the MVNO route), or else going into markets where they're beholden to other parties (carriers) or trying to sell something directly where their competitor's machines are heavily subsidized (the "sell unlocked phones" route.)
The registered iPhone.org in '99, so what? Peter Oppenheimers latest quote about cellphones, so what? Then those strings of clues found in iPod software update, so what?
So what indeed? None of the things you're pointing at amount to Apple selling an iPod phone.
iPhone.org predates even the existance of the iPod project by a year or two. Not just the iPod, but the idea ever being approved by management. Nor is it a realistic choice of domain name for Apple marketing a cellphone, it's a .org for one thing.
Peter Oppenheimer's comments, as I pointed out, were not clear one way or another and only point at Apple dealing with the changing market. One way they might deal with that is producing an iPod Cellphone.
The strings in the iPod software update, as I've said before, don't really make any sense. Think about it, for crying out loud: you're saying Apple is going to build a cellphone that uses the iPod's operating system. A cellphone. An MP3 player's operating system.
How does that make sense? It doesn't make sense. It's not even close to making sense. It makes zero sense. It's bizarre. It's ridiculous.
If you actually think Apple is not actually working on a phone, I think your crazy. If Apple actually is not working on a phone, then Apple is crazy.
If Apple is working on a phone, then there's a good chance they are crazy. If they're working with another company like Nokia or Motorola, then yeah, I can see that working.
But a phone of their own, with the intent to try to sell unlocked phones (buy a $500 iPhone to replace the phone you got for free that's not significantly worse and works fine. Uh-huh.), or make themselves slaves of Cingular or Verizon, in an industry in which the carriers are notorious control freaks who'll refuse to subsidize and market a phone they can't "customize" for maximum profitibility first), or start an entire MVNO, a massive and dramatic change in business model they're completely unfamiliar with?
No: that's crazy. Whacko. Apple thinks different, and maybe they'll do it, and perhaps they'll even pull it off; but we can't pretend they'd not be crazy for trying. It's not logical. It's not a logical next step, there's nothing logical about it. If I had stock in Apple, and they announced an iPhone, I'd sell everything I had.
The logical next step is actually licensing. If Apple is scared of hybrid devices winning out, Apple's best shot is taking advantage of their iTMS market lock and reputation, and building a front end and possibly a chipset that Nokia, Motorola, et al, can just build into their existing designs.
From their point of view, they lose a little control on the end-user experience, but they continue to have over-all control over the market, they don't limit themselves to one or two carriers who control them rather than vice-versa.
There's a lot of wishful thinking in this thread. People want Apple to make their next cellphone. Everything Apple does that involves the word "phone" is interpreted through those glasses. In truth, the signs remain ambiguous, and there are damned good reasons why such a move would be a disaster for Apple.
"If I had stock in Apple, and they announced an iPhone, I'd sell everything I had."
I'm sorry but that would be a stupid move. If Apple got a few percent of the cellphone market, which they easily would, it would mean billions in sales. That and phones will eventually eat up the iPod. Apple will eat into the iPod sales with "the IPhone" rather than them letting someone else do it, and as a result they will actually grow. If you don't change in this industry, you die. And now a days change is more frequent.
Apple will bring "something else" to this market. My guess it will involve .mac integration and wifi. Apple is used to closed systems look at OS X and the end of the clones.
Apple can buy huge chunks of time and run a MVNO as a value added service.
The release of the Verizon Chocolate is a shape of things to come.
Couple a move into smartphones/music phones and you have ipod competition nipping at Apple's heels.
No, I am betting on an iphone release. Perhaps with a slimmed down OS X mobile (widgets?)
Originally posted by TednDi
Also, Ireland,
Apple will bring "something else" to this market. My guess it will involve .mac integration and wifi. Apple is used to closed systems look at OS X and the end of the clones.
Apple can buy huge chunks of time and run a MVNO as a value added service.
The release of the Verizon Chocolate is a shape of things to come.
Couple a move into smartphones/music phones and you have ipod competition nipping at Apple's heels.
No, I am betting on an iphone release. Perhaps with a slimmed down OS X mobile (widgets?)
I agree! Apple may also offer iChat integration, and iChat may go Windows too, as iTunes did. That would give them huge opportunities
Think of the marketing campaign: iPhone + iChat + iTunes, imagine the possibilities.
Originally posted by Ireland
@ peharri, I basically disagree with everything you just said.
"If I had stock in Apple, and they announced an iPhone, I'd sell everything I had."
I'm sorry but that would be a stupid move. If Apple got a few percent of the cellphone market, which they easily would, it would mean billions in sales.
If Apple got into the MVNO market, it would mean a few millions in sales offset by losses. It's questionable they could make it work. They'd be one MVNO amongst many, using it to sell one phone when every other MVNO is buying mass manufactured phones off the shelf. Plug in the numbers: how does it work?
If Apple tried to sell phones via the carriers, they'd lose control over the way the phones are produced and marketed. They'd still face some substantial competition from companies that make far more phones than they do. The result would be Apple being at the whim of a small number of companies that would drop them in an instant if they feel they can market a competitor's product more effectively. The end result is probably massive losses.
If Apple tried to go it alone, and sell unlocked cellphones directly to the public, then they'd have warehouses full of unsold cellphones.
Quote:
That and phones will eventually eat up the iPod. Apple will eat into the iPod sales with "the IPhone" rather than them letting someone else do it, and as a result they will actually grow. If you don't change in this industry, you die. And now a days change is more frequent.
Change is required. The suicidal changes you're proposing are not. As I said, the logical thing for Apple to do involves licensing.
In the end, they may try to make a phone, but their chances of succeeding in that market are close to zero. They're better off working with other companies, licensing the technology and getting a cut of the end result, rather than sullying their reputation and profits by investing billions in a near-certain disaster.
Originally posted by peharri
As it stands, the "messages in the firmware" thing doesn't, actually, make a lot of sense as evidence of a phone. To assume this is what it is, we have to assume that Apple is extending an MP3 player to incorporate mobile phone technology, or else using MP3 player firmware as the basis of a cellphone operating system. Does anyone else not think that's slightly odd?
Gotta remember (or research) the history my friend...
The OS used in the iPod was obtained from ____?
The answer is of course PIXO.
Pixo a Cupertino based company that (imagine this) was founded by a long time but ex-Apple Employee and (in the beginning) was staffed by many other ex-Apple hires.
Guess what Pixo was involved in and I'll give you a HUGE hint, the answer is NOT A
A: MP3 Software
B: Enhanced VRML Porn
C: Cell Phone Software
Oh, but whatever deal Apple did make with Pixo it must have included access to the Pixo source (since Apple has since done it's own OS updates and has hired up more than a few ex-Pixo employees after the dotcom layoffs- or so I've read) and Pixo the company is now owned by Sun given Pixo's heavy involvement/expertise in Java on embedded systems.
D
But unlike them, I do think that iPhone exists and is coming soon. Not as a cellphone -that involves far too many different network types and a whole new way of selling devices. I think it will be an application on the iPod.
Think about it. Add A2DP and produce either a wired remote with a mic in it, or a wireless headset. If you store all your contacts in the AddressBook on your Mac, these are transferred to your iPod. Integrate all this, and you can make calls from your scroll wheel without taking the phone out of your pocket. I'd even go as far as betting the combination lock feature on the new iPods is Apple testing inputing numbers old-skool rotary phone style.
Just my 2c.
David
Originally posted by iMacfan
Integrate all this, and you can make calls from your scroll wheel without taking the phone out of your pocket. I'd even go as far as betting the combination lock feature on the new iPods is Apple testing inputing numbers old-skool rotary phone style.
I had the same thought.
Originally posted by iMacfan
Think about it. Add A2DP and produce either a wired remote with a mic in it, or a wireless headset. If you store all your contacts in the AddressBook on your Mac, these are transferred to your iPod. Integrate all this, and you can make calls from your scroll wheel without taking the phone out of your pocket. I'd even go as far as betting the combination lock feature on the new iPods is Apple testing inputing numbers old-skool rotary phone style.
Just my 2c.
David
Two things: 1. How do you see the numbers you're scrolling through with your in-line remote? 2. What about when you unplug your headphones? Did you ever hold your iPod to your hear? It's uncomfortable.
If Nokia can have great success with their implementation of WebKit for their smartphone browser, I imagine that Apple could do far better.
The only issue is text entry. Without a dedicated keyboard, is there any better solution that is low on the frustration scale? I can't really envision it, which would be a great innovation if Apple can.
Originally posted by mugwump
Wither Mac OS X Mobile?
If Nokia can have great success with their implementation of WebKit for their smartphone browser, I imagine that Apple could do far better.
The only issue is text entry. Without a dedicated keyboard, is there any better solution that is low on the frustration scale? I can't really envision it, which would be a great innovation if Apple can.
If they cannot implement a touch-screen that changes from a virtual click-wheel to a virtual keypad, then a real keypad is the only other practical alternative I can see.
(don't reply by just saying that Apple might see something you don't. If you think that, then make a suggestion)
Now, who could make a WiFi VoIP handset, I wonder ??
Maybe the same people that make the hippest, coolest music player ? The company that has the biggest online music store ? Or maybe the company that already has a strong VoIP/videoconferencing application ? Yeah - that one, the one with several billion dollars burning a hole in it's pocket....
I think you know who I mean
The time might not quite be right - yet - but when it is, and if Apple moves strongly, they could OWN mobile communications on this planet.
...and the mobile operators can kiss their extortionate call rates - and profits - goodbye !
(alternatively, they could do what Apple has traditionally done, and make a move now, before the time is ideal, and then spend several years waiting for the market to mature)
I think that the voip phone coupled with a traditional cell service a la MVNO would get them to market first and allow some interesting uses for the technology.
http://scobleizer.wordpress.com/2006...sta-ship-date/
To wit:
"I hope Microsoft takes the time to do this right.
If they don?t Apple will have far more market share at the end of 2007 than it will if Microsoft ships a great release.
Speaking of Apple, they are readying a dizzying amount of new products. I wish I could camp out at an Apple store during the World Wide Developer Conference on August 7th. I wish I could say more, but that?d get me sued by Steve Jobs and I don?t need that kind of heck right now."
http://www.engadget.com/2006/08/02/i...rty-bajillion/
Engadget have an interesting mockup of the iPhone - aka the iChat Mobile
http://www.engadget.com/2006/08/02/i...rty-bajillion/
It's got to be a fake. Apple would never put the camera on the back. The whole point of putting a camera on a phone would be to have face to face conversations.