I wrote "Elsewhere in the world, particularly the far east, more songs are sold via mobile phone than by the iPod/ITMS."
Elsewhere != 'rest of the world'
There's plenty of countries where iTunes doesn't exist.
That's just the French and possibly the Italians they seem to have unique ways of interpreting EC directives that they can bend to their own protectionist ends. Elsewhere you'll find most countries are a lot more cooperative with fellow member nations. Some, like the UK also roll over on our back to America, China and Japan even if it's not in our interest.
In Europe it's never been the case that calls were more expensive than texting. Calls are typically 20-30p a minute, Text's are 10-12p but you almost always get free minutes and free texts and you can say a lot in a minute. We just like texting. There's situations where you can't use a voice call that texting wins out in. I've 1000 free minutes a month on my phone and 400 text free plus periods where calls are entirely free regardless. I still send around 200-300 texts a month. My servers send me at least 2 a day. My Bank sends me 1 a day per account. Every TV news program that allows comment has a semi permanent 'Text your news to 811088' or whatever on the bottom of it. I pay my bills via Text messages. Some people even VOTE via text message.
Get it yet? Texting isn't going away.
Not really, this is a thread about phones yes? Seems this is the conversation?
My contention being that if your attitude to what we do in Europe is prevalent in Apple's design decisions then an Apple phone will fly off the shelves like a lead turd in Europe.
Individual member states can charge what they want but there are laws which state they have to offer their products to any EC resident at the same prices. That's why at one point us Brits used to buy our cars from Holland as they had cheaper taxes at the time. Each member state has it's own tax laws - they aren't homogenised across the whole of the EC.
There are no laws in Germany dictating prices. That's illegal. As I said there are laws specifically in place that STOP them doing that. They have higher taxes, that's all. In the USA you have lower taxes, less social provision and higher deficits.
Our posts here are getting to be a bit long for me., so I'm going to reply in one area, in an abbreviated form.
We were talking about songs sold in the US, so elsewhere, as you stated it, certainly looked to mean everywhere else, as you have noticed here in this post that iTunes is only available in certain areas of the world. Where iTunes is not available, it doesn't count, because we can't say anything about what would happen if iTunes did appear, except to relate it to what has happened elsewhere when iTunes did appear. In those places, iTunes continues to gather a greater percentage of songs sold as time goes on. And again, remember that "songs" in the case of the cell companies, continues to include snippits used for ringtones, which accounts for the vast majority of so-called song downloads through those phone companies, and are not really songs as we mean it to be.
France does what it does, but we have the Scandinavians also trying to do absurd things as well here, so who knows?
i;m not sure what you are trying to say about texting. You disagree, saying that texting is NOT less expensive, then you give figures to show that it is a LOT less expensive.
You may love texting, but despite your examples, it doesn't mean that it may not go away. You would have to show examples of user age groups. All I can say is that it is losing popularity here, and where it started, in Japan, amongst younger users who will make up the next group of subscribers. I'd be curious to see what is happening in Eastern Europe, and other areas of the far East.
There is no reason why Apple should even be interested in providing a phone for Europe. I certainly don't see any good reasons why. Maybe in the future, after they are established here. But, a worldwide introduction just seems to be too complex an affair when starting out in an industry that they have no experience with. If they do come out with a virtual network here, they could easily be raking in 3 to 5 billion a year, without even looking at Europe.
Maybe, living in England, you don't pay attention to it, but it doesn't work quite the way you think it does. As you are not part of the Euro currency group, you are not required to pay attention to their rules. But, from what I've read in the financial journals, pricing in the Eurozone must correspond to the concept of economic pricing. That is, prices for an item in Spain will be less than they are in Italy, which will, in turn, be less than the price in France, and in France, less than in Germany.
This has nothing to do with individual laws in Germany, or anywhere else. It is a regulation from Brussels.
As I said, you are not required to be part of that, because you are not part of the Eurozone?yet.
And, yes, the tax laws are another pain, and does break up the market. That's why there have been scandles with people, and companies trying to by bug ticket items in countries that charge less, and then smuggling them back to France and Germany. Auto's are the big problem there.
It's the usual case of something being obvious only AFTER someone else says it.
of course not mel. with the wu it's different. the wuman rehashes all the stuff macgeeks dream and bleed about in rumor forums and then he predicts 100 different things in his "special reports". big analysis. come on. apple cell phone. how many years have we been talking about that. of course it might be ready for production. it's been years. what else could it be? either that or it doesn't exist. either way he wins. if it doesn't come out, he'll just make another research note saying that production problems came up and that it was delayed.
of course not mel. with the wu it's different. the wuman rehashes all the stuff macgeeks dream and bleed about in rumor forums and then he predicts 100 different things in his "special reports". big analysis. come on. apple cell phone. how many years have we been talking about that. of course it might be ready for production. it's been years. what else could it be? either that or it doesn't exist. either way he wins. if it doesn't come out, he'll just make another research note saying that production problems came up and that it was delayed.
Makes me wonder how much Wu is wurth... er, worth.
We were talking about songs sold in the US, so elsewhere, as you stated it, certainly looked to mean everywhere else,
No. Elsewhere as in other countries, not elsewhere as in 'everywhere else added up in total'.
I've quoted you two sets of figures now for individual countries, not 'everywhere else other than the US'.
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross
as you have noticed here in this post that iTunes is only available in certain areas of the world. Where iTunes is not available, it doesn't count, because we can't say anything about what would happen if iTunes did appear, except to relate it to what has happened elsewhere when iTunes did appear.
That is a strawman.
If Apple wants to sell phones then they need to do it regardless of the country having an iTunes store. Most people don't buy iPods to buy songs from an iTunes store.
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross
In those places, iTunes continues to gather a greater percentage of songs sold as time goes on. And again, remember that "songs" in the case of the cell companies, continues to include snippits used for ringtones, which accounts for the vast majority of so-called song downloads through those phone companies, and are not really songs as we mean it to be.
The figures I quoted for the UK show songs sold through mobile phones increasing market share from 7% to 20% of the charts by the end of this year. They are not ringtones. Ringtones are not eligible for the charts. iTunes accounts for about 50% of the market here. It will continue to fall in market share.
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross
France does what it does, but we have the Scandinavians also trying to do absurd things as well here, so who knows?
I imagine the whole of Europe will follow at some point. The problem is the technology is moving quicker than the legislators. It's not so absurd an idea. DRM is counter consumer and Europe has much stronger laws about protecting the consumer than America. Apple (and Microsofts) ability to change the rules of their DRM after purchase is against the law in some Scandinavian countries and also in Denmark. It's probably illegal in others too.
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross
i;m not sure what you are trying to say about texting. You disagree, saying that texting is NOT less expensive, then you give figures to show that it is a LOT less expensive.
No I did not. I said Price of text = 10p. Price of 1 minute voice = 20-30p. You get a lot more for 20-30p. 160 characters v 1 minute of voice. It's irrelevant though, they're used differently and I gave you lots of examples why they are used instead of voice. Price isn't important.
You may love texting, but despite your examples, it doesn't mean that it may not go away. You would have to show examples of user age groups. All I can say is that it is losing popularity here, and where it started, in Japan, amongst younger users who will make up the next group of subscribers. I'd be curious to see what is happening in Eastern Europe, and other areas of the far East.
Ugh. Again - I quoted American stats from 'MobileYouth' showing texting increasing over 50% but you say it's losing popularity?
There is no reason why Apple should even be interested in providing a phone for Europe. I certainly don't see any good reasons why.
No, you wouldn't see a future in a market which has ONE phone standard and is bigger than the USA.
Last Quarter 41.4 million phones were sold in Western Europe. 42.5 million to Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa. 38.6 million were sold in the USA/Canada of which about half don't work in Europe at all so depending on which standard Apple picks it will have half the market in the USA it would have in Western Europe alone.
Maybe in the future, after they are established here. But, a worldwide introduction just seems to be too complex an affair when starting out in an industry that they have no experience with.
A European release would be a load easier than a domestic US release as they've only one technology to contend with and a much greater acceptance of technology in phones than the USA.
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross
If they do come out with a virtual network here, they could easily be raking in 3 to 5 billion a year, without even looking at Europe.
Unlikely. Virgin Mobile only managed £276 million in revenue in the UK for the first half of this year. I couldn't find USA numbers. Yet you reckon Apple can do 5 billion in the USA alone, without all the European data lead services that are unpopular in the US, with a limited number of phones and no experience?
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross
Maybe, living in England, you don't pay attention to it, but it doesn't work quite the way you think it does. As you are not part of the Euro currency group, you are not required to pay attention to their rules.
Yes we are. I've been Director of two companies here and wrote software specifically for European Monetary Union for the Bank of England. I pay attention. You have to as even before the Euro there were rules as to selling to other EC members.
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross
But, from what I've read in the financial journals, pricing in the Eurozone must correspond to the concept of economic pricing. That is, prices for an item in Spain will be less than they are in Italy, which will, in turn, be less than the price in France, and in France, less than in Germany.
This has nothing to do with individual laws in Germany, or anywhere else. It is a regulation from Brussels.
No. That's not right. The Euro-zone works through tieing together effective exchange rates between it's members. The EU central bank measures certain cost indicators such as labour costs and inflation for each member and levies fines on those that step outside the bands imposed. Each member state is allowed to price it's goods how it wants but the Euro restrictions tend to hold down massive deviations as the bands are relatively tight. Just because a pickle in Germany is ?4, doesn't mean it has to be ?4 in Spain. If it was the equivalent of ?2 before the Euro they can still price it ?2. The Euro zone works on macro economics, not micro.
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross
As I said, you are not required to be part of that, because you are not part of the Eurozone?yet.
The UK isn't a member of the Euro-zone but we are a member of EMU, just not the last bit - the single currency. If as a company I want to sell to the rest of Europe then the first two stages of requirements in EMU still apply. I also have to provide prices in Euros.
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross
And, yes, the tax laws are another pain, and does break up the market.
No, they don't. Taxes apply in the member state in which you purchase the goods. It's dead simple. If as a company you are VAT registered, you can claim back VAT from member states just as easily as your own through an agreement set out in the 90s. You provide the company you're buying from or selling to your registration number. They do their returns, I do mine and it's all worked out by the two governments.
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross
That's why there have been scandles with people, and companies trying to by bug ticket items in countries that charge less, and then smuggling them back to France and Germany. Auto's are the big problem there.
No. It's perfectly legal to buy goods in any other member state. That was the whole point of European Monetary Union and the single market. It's not smuggling. Have you never been through a European airport terminal and wondered why there's two customs channels - one for European nationals and one for the rest? Guess why. That's right, so we can walk through customs without having to declare anything.
It's also why Apple is on dubious grounds with it's iTunes store which doesn't let me, for instance, buy from the German store.
of course not mel. with the wu it's different. the wuman rehashes all the stuff macgeeks dream and bleed about in rumor forums and then he predicts 100 different things in his "special reports". big analysis. come on. apple cell phone. how many years have we been talking about that. of course it might be ready for production. it's been years. what else could it be? either that or it doesn't exist. either way he wins. if it doesn't come out, he'll just make another research note saying that production problems came up and that it was delayed.
The difference though, is that we cover hundreds of topics, many veering from the sane. And that's all in fun. Sometimes some of us even say something that makes sense!
But there is a world of difference between saying what we wish to be true, and what is possible at that time. I was talking about Apple making a phone several years ago. So what? It means nothing. But these guys do the footwork. It isn't that they are predicting like we are, out of our hopes. They are saying what they think Apple is doing, not what they hope Apple is doing.
That's very different. They say what they do, because they have sources that tell them things that we have no reasonable way of finding out on our own. If a company that makes iPods for Apple starts to order large amounts of parts from several suppliers that are used in iPod -like devices, they can assume that the company is going to make iPod-like devices. This can be a couple of months before production begins. If they order large amounts of 4 and 8 GB flash chips, it can be assumed that Apple is making both a 4 and an 8 GB iPod-like device.
They base their reports on information like that. They usually get it right. But Apple may delay the introduction for reasons of their own, or even delay the manufacturing, if they change the design for some other reason. So they aren't always spot on.
But they aren't sitting in their chairs with their hands clasped behind their heads, and guessing. They have a tough job.
So, if what they say may coincide with what some of us say, it doesn't mean anything. Believe me, they don't scour the rumors sites looking for ideas.
Most people here, such as yourself, do know that, so I just wonder why all of the criticism.
No. Elsewhere as in other countries, not elsewhere as in 'everywhere else added up in total'.
I've quoted you two sets of figures now for individual countries, not 'everywhere else other than the US'.
That is a strawman.
If Apple wants to sell phones then they need to do it regardless of the country having an iTunes store. Most people don't buy iPods to buy songs from an iTunes store.
The figures I quoted for the UK show songs sold through mobile phones increasing market share from 7% to 20% of the charts by the end of this year. They are not ringtones. Ringtones are not eligible for the charts. iTunes accounts for about 50% of the market here. It will continue to fall in market share.
I imagine the whole of Europe will follow at some point. The problem is the technology is moving quicker than the legislators. It's not so absurd an idea. DRM is counter consumer and Europe has much stronger laws about protecting the consumer than America. Apple (and Microsofts) ability to change the rules of their DRM after purchase is against the law in some Scandinavian countries and also in Denmark. It's probably illegal in others too.
No I did not. I said Price of text = 10p. Price of 1 minute voice = 20-30p. You get a lot more for 20-30p. 160 characters v 1 minute of voice. It's irrelevant though, they're used differently and I gave you lots of examples why they are used instead of voice. Price isn't important.
No, you wouldn't see a future in a market which has ONE phone standard and is bigger than the USA.
Last Quarter 41.4 million phones were sold in Western Europe. 42.5 million to Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa. 38.6 million were sold in the USA/Canada of which about half don't work in Europe at all so depending on which standard Apple picks it will have half the market in the USA it would have in Western Europe alone.
A European release would be a load easier than a domestic US release as they've only one technology to contend with and a much greater acceptance of technology in phones than the USA.
Unlikely. Virgin Mobile only managed £276 million in revenue in the UK for the first half of this year. I couldn't find USA numbers. Yet you reckon Apple can do 5 billion in the USA alone, without all the European data lead services that are unpopular in the US, with a limited number of phones and no experience?
Yes we are. I've been Director of two companies here and wrote software specifically for European Monetary Union for the Bank of England. I pay attention. You have to as even before the Euro there were rules as to selling to other EC members.
No. That's not right. The Euro-zone works through tieing together effective exchange rates between it's members. The EU central bank measures certain cost indicators such as labour costs and inflation for each member and levies fines on those that step outside the bands imposed. Each member state is allowed to price it's goods how it wants but the Euro restrictions tend to hold down massive deviations as the bands are relatively tight. Just because a pickle in Germany is ?4, doesn't mean it has to be ?4 in Spain. If it was the equivalent of ?2 before the Euro they can still price it ?2. The Euro zone works on macro economics, not micro.
The UK isn't a member of the Euro-zone but we are a member of EMU, just not the last bit - the single currency. If as a company I want to sell to the rest of Europe then the first two stages of requirements in EMU still apply. I also have to provide prices in Euros.
No, they don't. Taxes apply in the member state in which you purchase the goods. It's dead simple. If as a company you are VAT registered, you can claim back VAT from member states just as easily as your own through an agreement set out in the 90s. You provide the company you're buying from or selling to your registration number. They do their returns, I do mine and it's all worked out by the two governments.
No. It's perfectly legal to buy goods in any other member state. That was the whole point of European Monetary Union and the single market. It's not smuggling. Have you never been through a European airport terminal and wondered why there's two customs channels - one for European nationals and one for the rest? Guess why. That's right, so we can walk through customs without having to declare anything.
It's also why Apple is on dubious grounds with it's iTunes store which doesn't let me, for instance, buy from the German store.
I have no idea what you are trying to show me with those articles. None of them back up anything you have said. Some don't even directly address the issues. Information from 2004 is much too outdated to be of much use. A prediction made on that data must be suplimented by more recent information. Not every predicted trend has shown to be correct. And my own experience tells me that it won't be.
And, again, texting is much cheaper on most places than voice calls, even the articles show that. Price is the main reason why texting is so popular where it is popular.
Yes, I know that ou compared text messagw wit a minute voice rate. But, that's correct! And is shows why texting is cheaper. People who text spend less time doing it than tyalking on the phone. That's in addition to it being cheaper by itself. Per call.
and, yes, in Japan, customers have been resisting, feircely, 3G services that have been foisted upon them. Thewy don't want to spend the extra money. But, as they noted, texting revenue is falling too. In Japan it seems that that revenue is going lower while texting email is still popular. But, then again, it's much cheaper.
We also don't know just what they mean by "other" mobile content in the other article. Tv over cell is very popular in Japan, and they could mean that as well.
Insofar as sales in markets other than North America (including Canada, of course), Western Europe, and Japan go, it really isn't in the equation. As we know, and the last article points out, other markets are looking for low cost phones. Apple won't be addressing that. They will likely be looking to cherry pick the top of the market. Japan is a tough nut, but Apple could look there. The same thing is true of W Europe. I'm not saying that Apple will never go there, but it isn't correct to think that Apple can divert energy to more than one market at a time. It's more important to work the home market first. After that is established, they can move out.
The point About Virgin, which is doing pretty well over here, is that Apple won't have to deal with the various phone companies. Where the big companies have between 40 million to 70 million subscribers apiece here, Apple could gather from that large market, several million customers. Apple users will be a big source. iPod users will be a bigger source. I can see Apple getting a good 3 million subscribers after a couple of years. If they play their cards right, they could get more. At an average of $50 a month, that surely adds up.
They tying together of exchange rates with different economic indicators is just what I said, but with detail I didn't bother to add. This ends up with different pricing across the continent. Again, what I said. I don't understand why you disagree.
I understand that as a company, you would have to understand, and apply the Euro rules. We have to do that from here as well, when we sell into that market.
I'm afraid that the smuggling is true though. You aren't supposed to buy a Mercedes in Spain, for example, at those rates, and then bring it back into Germany.
I was speaking of the consumer. I realise that YOU understand.
Yes, I've been through the customs. I much prefer customs in England. They seem to be friendlier.
The difference though, is that we cover hundreds of topics, many veering from the sane. And that's all in fun. Sometimes some of us even say something that makes sense!
But there is a world of difference between saying what we wish to be true, and what is possible at that time. I was talking about Apple making a phone several years ago. So what? It means nothing. But these guys do the footwork. It isn't that they are predicting like we are, out of our hopes. They are saying what they think Apple is doing, not what they hope Apple is doing.
That's very different. They say what they do, because they have sources that tell them things that we have no reasonable way of finding out on our own. If a company that makes iPods for Apple starts to order large amounts of parts from several suppliers that are used in iPod -like devices, they can assume that the company is going to make iPod-like devices. This can be a couple of months before production begins. If they order large amounts of 4 and 8 GB flash chips, it can be assumed that Apple is making both a 4 and an 8 GB iPod-like device.
They base their reports on information like that. They usually get it right. But Apple may delay the introduction for reasons of their own, or even delay the manufacturing, if they change the design for some other reason. So they aren't always spot on.
But they aren't sitting in their chairs with their hands clasped behind their heads, and guessing. They have a tough job.
So, if what they say may coincide with what some of us say, it doesn't mean anything. Believe me, they don't scour the rumors sites looking for ideas.
Most people here, such as yourself, do know that, so I just wonder why all of the criticism.
well, yes. i'm getting you. that makes a lot of sense.
maybe my criticism towards Wu comes because i just feel he repeats too much of the same stuff we read here all the time. so it makes me wonder about his sources. but of course, like you said, he probably has contacts in the industry and it just coincides with the hundreds of topics discussed here and elsewhere.
the guy just rubs me the wrong way because, i don't know, i guess part of me wants to hear disparate, new rumors. get the iphone out already and hear new stuff. i'm getting impatient apple has taken way too long to release this thing.
i bet it'd be very funny for Steve Jobs and Co. if we were all wrong, and the iphone was never in their plans, and would never see the light of day.
well, yes. i'm getting you. that makes a lot of sense.
maybe my criticism towards Wu comes because i just feel he repeats too much of the same stuff we read here all the time. so it makes me wonder about his sources. but of course, like you said, he probably has contacts in the industry and it just coincides with the hundreds of topics discussed here and elsewhere.
the guy just rubs me the wrong way because, i don't know, i guess part of me wants to hear disparate, new rumors. get the iphone out already and hear new stuff. i'm getting impatient apple has taken way too long to release this thing.
i bet it'd be very funny for Steve Jobs and Co. if we were all wrong, and the iphone was never in their plans, and would never see the light of day.
Apple, like most manufacturing companies has many projects they are looking at. That's called research. If word gets out that they are researching something, people assume it WILL be a product. But, even if it does move to the development end of the R&D acronim, it doesn't mean it will be produced. They may just be interested in what they could come up with IF they wanted to. That's why reports of what they are doing can get screwed up as well.
Just like these patents. They do the research, and patent a good idea. They MAY use it, or not.
What a fuckwit you can be for the sake of it Melgross.
Absolutely everything you wrote in that last post was totally wrong. I spent a long time carefully researching those stats yet you just deny they are of significance because texting isn't popular with your daughter. Meh. I'm done. Stick your head up your arse and sing la-la-la if you want to.
What a fuckwit you can be for the sake of it Melgross.
Absolutely everything you wrote in that last post was totally wrong. I spent a long time carefully researching those stats yet you just deny they are of significance because texting isn't popular with your daughter. Meh. I'm done. Stick your head up your arse and sing la-la-la if you want to.
What a fuckwit you can be for the sake of it Melgross.
Absolutely everything you wrote in that last post was totally wrong. I spent a long time carefully researching those stats yet you just deny they are of significance because texting isn't popular with your daughter. Meh. I'm done. Stick your head up your arse and sing la-la-la if you want to.
Even Wu makes more sense than you do.
Ouch. Saying Wu makes more sense than Mel is a bigger insult than calling him a fuckwit
Someone's getting cranky ahead of the announcement...
Yeah. Everyone's deeply emotionally involved with the Sep 12 deal. So much so nobody has the cahones to even put one countdown post in the Official Countdown thread, besides me
There's 99.999% probability new iPods will be announced, so I am happy. I don't give a frack about movie downloads, iPhone, or iHome, AirMovies, or whatever else
Comments
But that's not what I actually wrote.
I wrote "Elsewhere in the world, particularly the far east, more songs are sold via mobile phone than by the iPod/ITMS."
Elsewhere != 'rest of the world'
There's plenty of countries where iTunes doesn't exist.
That's just the French and possibly the Italians they seem to have unique ways of interpreting EC directives that they can bend to their own protectionist ends. Elsewhere you'll find most countries are a lot more cooperative with fellow member nations. Some, like the UK also roll over on our back to America, China and Japan even if it's not in our interest.
In Europe it's never been the case that calls were more expensive than texting. Calls are typically 20-30p a minute, Text's are 10-12p but you almost always get free minutes and free texts and you can say a lot in a minute. We just like texting. There's situations where you can't use a voice call that texting wins out in. I've 1000 free minutes a month on my phone and 400 text free plus periods where calls are entirely free regardless. I still send around 200-300 texts a month. My servers send me at least 2 a day. My Bank sends me 1 a day per account. Every TV news program that allows comment has a semi permanent 'Text your news to 811088' or whatever on the bottom of it. I pay my bills via Text messages. Some people even VOTE via text message.
Get it yet? Texting isn't going away.
Not really, this is a thread about phones yes? Seems this is the conversation?
My contention being that if your attitude to what we do in Europe is prevalent in Apple's design decisions then an Apple phone will fly off the shelves like a lead turd in Europe.
Individual member states can charge what they want but there are laws which state they have to offer their products to any EC resident at the same prices. That's why at one point us Brits used to buy our cars from Holland as they had cheaper taxes at the time. Each member state has it's own tax laws - they aren't homogenised across the whole of the EC.
There are no laws in Germany dictating prices. That's illegal. As I said there are laws specifically in place that STOP them doing that. They have higher taxes, that's all. In the USA you have lower taxes, less social provision and higher deficits.
Our posts here are getting to be a bit long for me., so I'm going to reply in one area, in an abbreviated form.
We were talking about songs sold in the US, so elsewhere, as you stated it, certainly looked to mean everywhere else, as you have noticed here in this post that iTunes is only available in certain areas of the world. Where iTunes is not available, it doesn't count, because we can't say anything about what would happen if iTunes did appear, except to relate it to what has happened elsewhere when iTunes did appear. In those places, iTunes continues to gather a greater percentage of songs sold as time goes on. And again, remember that "songs" in the case of the cell companies, continues to include snippits used for ringtones, which accounts for the vast majority of so-called song downloads through those phone companies, and are not really songs as we mean it to be.
France does what it does, but we have the Scandinavians also trying to do absurd things as well here, so who knows?
i;m not sure what you are trying to say about texting. You disagree, saying that texting is NOT less expensive, then you give figures to show that it is a LOT less expensive.
You may love texting, but despite your examples, it doesn't mean that it may not go away. You would have to show examples of user age groups. All I can say is that it is losing popularity here, and where it started, in Japan, amongst younger users who will make up the next group of subscribers. I'd be curious to see what is happening in Eastern Europe, and other areas of the far East.
There is no reason why Apple should even be interested in providing a phone for Europe. I certainly don't see any good reasons why. Maybe in the future, after they are established here. But, a worldwide introduction just seems to be too complex an affair when starting out in an industry that they have no experience with. If they do come out with a virtual network here, they could easily be raking in 3 to 5 billion a year, without even looking at Europe.
Maybe, living in England, you don't pay attention to it, but it doesn't work quite the way you think it does. As you are not part of the Euro currency group, you are not required to pay attention to their rules. But, from what I've read in the financial journals, pricing in the Eurozone must correspond to the concept of economic pricing. That is, prices for an item in Spain will be less than they are in Italy, which will, in turn, be less than the price in France, and in France, less than in Germany.
This has nothing to do with individual laws in Germany, or anywhere else. It is a regulation from Brussels.
As I said, you are not required to be part of that, because you are not part of the Eurozone?yet.
And, yes, the tax laws are another pain, and does break up the market. That's why there have been scandles with people, and companies trying to by bug ticket items in countries that charge less, and then smuggling them back to France and Germany. Auto's are the big problem there.
It's the usual case of something being obvious only AFTER someone else says it.
of course not mel. with the wu it's different. the wuman rehashes all the stuff macgeeks dream and bleed about in rumor forums and then he predicts 100 different things in his "special reports". big analysis. come on. apple cell phone. how many years have we been talking about that. of course it might be ready for production. it's been years. what else could it be? either that or it doesn't exist. either way he wins. if it doesn't come out, he'll just make another research note saying that production problems came up and that it was delayed.
of course not mel. with the wu it's different. the wuman rehashes all the stuff macgeeks dream and bleed about in rumor forums and then he predicts 100 different things in his "special reports". big analysis. come on. apple cell phone. how many years have we been talking about that. of course it might be ready for production. it's been years. what else could it be? either that or it doesn't exist. either way he wins. if it doesn't come out, he'll just make another research note saying that production problems came up and that it was delayed.
Makes me wonder how much Wu is wurth... er, worth.
We were talking about songs sold in the US, so elsewhere, as you stated it, certainly looked to mean everywhere else,
No. Elsewhere as in other countries, not elsewhere as in 'everywhere else added up in total'.
I've quoted you two sets of figures now for individual countries, not 'everywhere else other than the US'.
as you have noticed here in this post that iTunes is only available in certain areas of the world. Where iTunes is not available, it doesn't count, because we can't say anything about what would happen if iTunes did appear, except to relate it to what has happened elsewhere when iTunes did appear.
That is a strawman.
If Apple wants to sell phones then they need to do it regardless of the country having an iTunes store. Most people don't buy iPods to buy songs from an iTunes store.
In those places, iTunes continues to gather a greater percentage of songs sold as time goes on. And again, remember that "songs" in the case of the cell companies, continues to include snippits used for ringtones, which accounts for the vast majority of so-called song downloads through those phone companies, and are not really songs as we mean it to be.
The figures I quoted for the UK show songs sold through mobile phones increasing market share from 7% to 20% of the charts by the end of this year. They are not ringtones. Ringtones are not eligible for the charts. iTunes accounts for about 50% of the market here. It will continue to fall in market share.
France does what it does, but we have the Scandinavians also trying to do absurd things as well here, so who knows?
I imagine the whole of Europe will follow at some point. The problem is the technology is moving quicker than the legislators. It's not so absurd an idea. DRM is counter consumer and Europe has much stronger laws about protecting the consumer than America. Apple (and Microsofts) ability to change the rules of their DRM after purchase is against the law in some Scandinavian countries and also in Denmark. It's probably illegal in others too.
i;m not sure what you are trying to say about texting. You disagree, saying that texting is NOT less expensive, then you give figures to show that it is a LOT less expensive.
No I did not. I said Price of text = 10p. Price of 1 minute voice = 20-30p. You get a lot more for 20-30p. 160 characters v 1 minute of voice. It's irrelevant though, they're used differently and I gave you lots of examples why they are used instead of voice. Price isn't important.
Try this CNN article - http://money.cnn.com/magazines/busin...2255/index.htm
"Why we don't get the (text) message"
You may love texting, but despite your examples, it doesn't mean that it may not go away. You would have to show examples of user age groups. All I can say is that it is losing popularity here, and where it started, in Japan, amongst younger users who will make up the next group of subscribers. I'd be curious to see what is happening in Eastern Europe, and other areas of the far East.
Ugh. Again - I quoted American stats from 'MobileYouth' showing texting increasing over 50% but you say it's losing popularity?
How about - http://www.analysys.com/default_acl....cle=2002&m=&n= which says SMS use will grow from 4.8% to 10% of phone company revenue between 2005-2010 in the USA.
In Japan, text messaging is proving more popular than voice. Revenue is taking a tumble because of it - http://www.mobilemonday.net/mm/story.php?story_id=4750
Data services in Japan are up 39% over last year - http://aorta.wordpress.com/2006/07/2...n-mobile-data/
There is no reason why Apple should even be interested in providing a phone for Europe. I certainly don't see any good reasons why.
No, you wouldn't see a future in a market which has ONE phone standard and is bigger than the USA.
Last Quarter 41.4 million phones were sold in Western Europe. 42.5 million to Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa. 38.6 million were sold in the USA/Canada of which about half don't work in Europe at all so depending on which standard Apple picks it will have half the market in the USA it would have in Western Europe alone.
http://www.cellular-news.com/story/19008.php
Maybe in the future, after they are established here. But, a worldwide introduction just seems to be too complex an affair when starting out in an industry that they have no experience with.
A European release would be a load easier than a domestic US release as they've only one technology to contend with and a much greater acceptance of technology in phones than the USA.
If they do come out with a virtual network here, they could easily be raking in 3 to 5 billion a year, without even looking at Europe.
Unlikely. Virgin Mobile only managed £276 million in revenue in the UK for the first half of this year. I couldn't find USA numbers. Yet you reckon Apple can do 5 billion in the USA alone, without all the European data lead services that are unpopular in the US, with a limited number of phones and no experience?
Maybe, living in England, you don't pay attention to it, but it doesn't work quite the way you think it does. As you are not part of the Euro currency group, you are not required to pay attention to their rules.
Yes we are. I've been Director of two companies here and wrote software specifically for European Monetary Union for the Bank of England. I pay attention. You have to as even before the Euro there were rules as to selling to other EC members.
But, from what I've read in the financial journals, pricing in the Eurozone must correspond to the concept of economic pricing. That is, prices for an item in Spain will be less than they are in Italy, which will, in turn, be less than the price in France, and in France, less than in Germany.
This has nothing to do with individual laws in Germany, or anywhere else. It is a regulation from Brussels.
No. That's not right. The Euro-zone works through tieing together effective exchange rates between it's members. The EU central bank measures certain cost indicators such as labour costs and inflation for each member and levies fines on those that step outside the bands imposed. Each member state is allowed to price it's goods how it wants but the Euro restrictions tend to hold down massive deviations as the bands are relatively tight. Just because a pickle in Germany is ?4, doesn't mean it has to be ?4 in Spain. If it was the equivalent of ?2 before the Euro they can still price it ?2. The Euro zone works on macro economics, not micro.
As I said, you are not required to be part of that, because you are not part of the Eurozone?yet.
The UK isn't a member of the Euro-zone but we are a member of EMU, just not the last bit - the single currency. If as a company I want to sell to the rest of Europe then the first two stages of requirements in EMU still apply. I also have to provide prices in Euros.
And, yes, the tax laws are another pain, and does break up the market.
No, they don't. Taxes apply in the member state in which you purchase the goods. It's dead simple. If as a company you are VAT registered, you can claim back VAT from member states just as easily as your own through an agreement set out in the 90s. You provide the company you're buying from or selling to your registration number. They do their returns, I do mine and it's all worked out by the two governments.
That's why there have been scandles with people, and companies trying to by bug ticket items in countries that charge less, and then smuggling them back to France and Germany. Auto's are the big problem there.
No. It's perfectly legal to buy goods in any other member state. That was the whole point of European Monetary Union and the single market. It's not smuggling. Have you never been through a European airport terminal and wondered why there's two customs channels - one for European nationals and one for the rest? Guess why. That's right, so we can walk through customs without having to declare anything.
It's also why Apple is on dubious grounds with it's iTunes store which doesn't let me, for instance, buy from the German store.
http://www.engadget.com/2006/09/08/t...-book-concept/
of course not mel. with the wu it's different. the wuman rehashes all the stuff macgeeks dream and bleed about in rumor forums and then he predicts 100 different things in his "special reports". big analysis. come on. apple cell phone. how many years have we been talking about that. of course it might be ready for production. it's been years. what else could it be? either that or it doesn't exist. either way he wins. if it doesn't come out, he'll just make another research note saying that production problems came up and that it was delayed.
The difference though, is that we cover hundreds of topics, many veering from the sane. And that's all in fun. Sometimes some of us even say something that makes sense!
But there is a world of difference between saying what we wish to be true, and what is possible at that time. I was talking about Apple making a phone several years ago. So what? It means nothing. But these guys do the footwork. It isn't that they are predicting like we are, out of our hopes. They are saying what they think Apple is doing, not what they hope Apple is doing.
That's very different. They say what they do, because they have sources that tell them things that we have no reasonable way of finding out on our own. If a company that makes iPods for Apple starts to order large amounts of parts from several suppliers that are used in iPod -like devices, they can assume that the company is going to make iPod-like devices. This can be a couple of months before production begins. If they order large amounts of 4 and 8 GB flash chips, it can be assumed that Apple is making both a 4 and an 8 GB iPod-like device.
They base their reports on information like that. They usually get it right. But Apple may delay the introduction for reasons of their own, or even delay the manufacturing, if they change the design for some other reason. So they aren't always spot on.
But they aren't sitting in their chairs with their hands clasped behind their heads, and guessing. They have a tough job.
So, if what they say may coincide with what some of us say, it doesn't mean anything. Believe me, they don't scour the rumors sites looking for ideas.
Most people here, such as yourself, do know that, so I just wonder why all of the criticism.
No. Elsewhere as in other countries, not elsewhere as in 'everywhere else added up in total'.
I've quoted you two sets of figures now for individual countries, not 'everywhere else other than the US'.
That is a strawman.
If Apple wants to sell phones then they need to do it regardless of the country having an iTunes store. Most people don't buy iPods to buy songs from an iTunes store.
The figures I quoted for the UK show songs sold through mobile phones increasing market share from 7% to 20% of the charts by the end of this year. They are not ringtones. Ringtones are not eligible for the charts. iTunes accounts for about 50% of the market here. It will continue to fall in market share.
I imagine the whole of Europe will follow at some point. The problem is the technology is moving quicker than the legislators. It's not so absurd an idea. DRM is counter consumer and Europe has much stronger laws about protecting the consumer than America. Apple (and Microsofts) ability to change the rules of their DRM after purchase is against the law in some Scandinavian countries and also in Denmark. It's probably illegal in others too.
No I did not. I said Price of text = 10p. Price of 1 minute voice = 20-30p. You get a lot more for 20-30p. 160 characters v 1 minute of voice. It's irrelevant though, they're used differently and I gave you lots of examples why they are used instead of voice. Price isn't important.
Try this CNN article - http://money.cnn.com/magazines/busin...2255/index.htm
"Why we don't get the (text) message"
Ugh. Again - I quoted American stats from 'MobileYouth' showing texting increasing over 50% but you say it's losing popularity?
How about - http://www.analysys.com/default_acl....cle=2002&m=&n= which says SMS use will grow from 4.8% to 10% of phone company revenue between 2005-2010 in the USA.
In Japan, text messaging is proving more popular than voice. Revenue is taking a tumble because of it - http://www.mobilemonday.net/mm/story.php?story_id=4750
Data services in Japan are up 39% over last year - http://aorta.wordpress.com/2006/07/2...n-mobile-data/
No, you wouldn't see a future in a market which has ONE phone standard and is bigger than the USA.
Last Quarter 41.4 million phones were sold in Western Europe. 42.5 million to Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa. 38.6 million were sold in the USA/Canada of which about half don't work in Europe at all so depending on which standard Apple picks it will have half the market in the USA it would have in Western Europe alone.
http://www.cellular-news.com/story/19008.php
A European release would be a load easier than a domestic US release as they've only one technology to contend with and a much greater acceptance of technology in phones than the USA.
Unlikely. Virgin Mobile only managed £276 million in revenue in the UK for the first half of this year. I couldn't find USA numbers. Yet you reckon Apple can do 5 billion in the USA alone, without all the European data lead services that are unpopular in the US, with a limited number of phones and no experience?
Yes we are. I've been Director of two companies here and wrote software specifically for European Monetary Union for the Bank of England. I pay attention. You have to as even before the Euro there were rules as to selling to other EC members.
No. That's not right. The Euro-zone works through tieing together effective exchange rates between it's members. The EU central bank measures certain cost indicators such as labour costs and inflation for each member and levies fines on those that step outside the bands imposed. Each member state is allowed to price it's goods how it wants but the Euro restrictions tend to hold down massive deviations as the bands are relatively tight. Just because a pickle in Germany is ?4, doesn't mean it has to be ?4 in Spain. If it was the equivalent of ?2 before the Euro they can still price it ?2. The Euro zone works on macro economics, not micro.
The UK isn't a member of the Euro-zone but we are a member of EMU, just not the last bit - the single currency. If as a company I want to sell to the rest of Europe then the first two stages of requirements in EMU still apply. I also have to provide prices in Euros.
No, they don't. Taxes apply in the member state in which you purchase the goods. It's dead simple. If as a company you are VAT registered, you can claim back VAT from member states just as easily as your own through an agreement set out in the 90s. You provide the company you're buying from or selling to your registration number. They do their returns, I do mine and it's all worked out by the two governments.
No. It's perfectly legal to buy goods in any other member state. That was the whole point of European Monetary Union and the single market. It's not smuggling. Have you never been through a European airport terminal and wondered why there's two customs channels - one for European nationals and one for the rest? Guess why. That's right, so we can walk through customs without having to declare anything.
It's also why Apple is on dubious grounds with it's iTunes store which doesn't let me, for instance, buy from the German store.
I have no idea what you are trying to show me with those articles. None of them back up anything you have said. Some don't even directly address the issues. Information from 2004 is much too outdated to be of much use. A prediction made on that data must be suplimented by more recent information. Not every predicted trend has shown to be correct. And my own experience tells me that it won't be.
And, again, texting is much cheaper on most places than voice calls, even the articles show that. Price is the main reason why texting is so popular where it is popular.
Yes, I know that ou compared text messagw wit a minute voice rate. But, that's correct! And is shows why texting is cheaper. People who text spend less time doing it than tyalking on the phone. That's in addition to it being cheaper by itself. Per call.
and, yes, in Japan, customers have been resisting, feircely, 3G services that have been foisted upon them. Thewy don't want to spend the extra money. But, as they noted, texting revenue is falling too. In Japan it seems that that revenue is going lower while texting email is still popular. But, then again, it's much cheaper.
We also don't know just what they mean by "other" mobile content in the other article. Tv over cell is very popular in Japan, and they could mean that as well.
Insofar as sales in markets other than North America (including Canada, of course), Western Europe, and Japan go, it really isn't in the equation. As we know, and the last article points out, other markets are looking for low cost phones. Apple won't be addressing that. They will likely be looking to cherry pick the top of the market. Japan is a tough nut, but Apple could look there. The same thing is true of W Europe. I'm not saying that Apple will never go there, but it isn't correct to think that Apple can divert energy to more than one market at a time. It's more important to work the home market first. After that is established, they can move out.
The point About Virgin, which is doing pretty well over here, is that Apple won't have to deal with the various phone companies. Where the big companies have between 40 million to 70 million subscribers apiece here, Apple could gather from that large market, several million customers. Apple users will be a big source. iPod users will be a bigger source. I can see Apple getting a good 3 million subscribers after a couple of years. If they play their cards right, they could get more. At an average of $50 a month, that surely adds up.
They tying together of exchange rates with different economic indicators is just what I said, but with detail I didn't bother to add. This ends up with different pricing across the continent. Again, what I said. I don't understand why you disagree.
I understand that as a company, you would have to understand, and apply the Euro rules. We have to do that from here as well, when we sell into that market.
I'm afraid that the smuggling is true though. You aren't supposed to buy a Mercedes in Spain, for example, at those rates, and then bring it back into Germany.
I was speaking of the consumer. I realise that YOU understand.
Yes, I've been through the customs. I much prefer customs in England. They seem to be friendlier.
The difference though, is that we cover hundreds of topics, many veering from the sane. And that's all in fun. Sometimes some of us even say something that makes sense!
But there is a world of difference between saying what we wish to be true, and what is possible at that time. I was talking about Apple making a phone several years ago. So what? It means nothing. But these guys do the footwork. It isn't that they are predicting like we are, out of our hopes. They are saying what they think Apple is doing, not what they hope Apple is doing.
That's very different. They say what they do, because they have sources that tell them things that we have no reasonable way of finding out on our own. If a company that makes iPods for Apple starts to order large amounts of parts from several suppliers that are used in iPod -like devices, they can assume that the company is going to make iPod-like devices. This can be a couple of months before production begins. If they order large amounts of 4 and 8 GB flash chips, it can be assumed that Apple is making both a 4 and an 8 GB iPod-like device.
They base their reports on information like that. They usually get it right. But Apple may delay the introduction for reasons of their own, or even delay the manufacturing, if they change the design for some other reason. So they aren't always spot on.
But they aren't sitting in their chairs with their hands clasped behind their heads, and guessing. They have a tough job.
So, if what they say may coincide with what some of us say, it doesn't mean anything. Believe me, they don't scour the rumors sites looking for ideas.
Most people here, such as yourself, do know that, so I just wonder why all of the criticism.
well, yes. i'm getting you. that makes a lot of sense.
maybe my criticism towards Wu comes because i just feel he repeats too much of the same stuff we read here all the time. so it makes me wonder about his sources. but of course, like you said, he probably has contacts in the industry and it just coincides with the hundreds of topics discussed here and elsewhere.
the guy just rubs me the wrong way because, i don't know, i guess part of me wants to hear disparate, new rumors. get the iphone out already and hear new stuff. i'm getting impatient apple has taken way too long to release this thing.
i bet it'd be very funny for Steve Jobs and Co. if we were all wrong, and the iphone was never in their plans, and would never see the light of day.
well, yes. i'm getting you. that makes a lot of sense.
maybe my criticism towards Wu comes because i just feel he repeats too much of the same stuff we read here all the time. so it makes me wonder about his sources. but of course, like you said, he probably has contacts in the industry and it just coincides with the hundreds of topics discussed here and elsewhere.
the guy just rubs me the wrong way because, i don't know, i guess part of me wants to hear disparate, new rumors. get the iphone out already and hear new stuff. i'm getting impatient apple has taken way too long to release this thing.
i bet it'd be very funny for Steve Jobs and Co. if we were all wrong, and the iphone was never in their plans, and would never see the light of day.
Apple, like most manufacturing companies has many projects they are looking at. That's called research. If word gets out that they are researching something, people assume it WILL be a product. But, even if it does move to the development end of the R&D acronim, it doesn't mean it will be produced. They may just be interested in what they could come up with IF they wanted to. That's why reports of what they are doing can get screwed up as well.
Just like these patents. They do the research, and patent a good idea. They MAY use it, or not.
Remember Asteroid?
Absolutely everything you wrote in that last post was totally wrong. I spent a long time carefully researching those stats yet you just deny they are of significance because texting isn't popular with your daughter. Meh. I'm done. Stick your head up your arse and sing la-la-la if you want to.
Even Wu makes more sense than you do.
What a fuckwit you can be for the sake of it Melgross.
Absolutely everything you wrote in that last post was totally wrong. I spent a long time carefully researching those stats yet you just deny they are of significance because texting isn't popular with your daughter. Meh. I'm done. Stick your head up your arse and sing la-la-la if you want to.
Even Wu makes more sense than you do.
I didn't think you could be so childish.
I'm sorry you spent so much time on them.
What a fuckwit you can be for the sake of it Melgross.
Absolutely everything you wrote in that last post was totally wrong. I spent a long time carefully researching those stats yet you just deny they are of significance because texting isn't popular with your daughter. Meh. I'm done. Stick your head up your arse and sing la-la-la if you want to.
Even Wu makes more sense than you do.
Ouch. Saying Wu makes more sense than Mel is a bigger insult than calling him a fuckwit
Ouch. Saying Wu makes more sense than Mel is a bigger insult than calling him a fuckwit
I'm not quite sure how to take that.
I'm not quite sure how to take that.
I'd take it as aegisdesign really hates your ass.
Someone's getting cranky ahead of the announcement...
Yeah. Everyone's deeply emotionally involved with the Sep 12 deal. So much so nobody has the cahones to even put one countdown post in the Official Countdown thread, besides me
http://forums.appleinsider.com/showt...4&goto=newpost
People are scared to get hyped up coz' they're afraid if it's dissapointing they'll crash.
I'm looking forward to a new iPod though because it's my birthday (20th Sep) soon and my brother has asked me what I want
I'd take it as aegisdesign really hates your ass.
Well, I don't hate his.
Well, I don't hate his.
Unilateral ass hatred? That could be....destabilizing.