I think most Mac user are still waiting for leopard to buy mac for upgrade.
Professional are waiting for more universal binary application such as the recent Maya, and app from adobe.
Geeks / Advanced Computer user now love mac due to the Vista Effect :P are either waiting for the Top Secret feature to be announced before they decide or waiting for Leopard as well.
Casual Gamer are waiting for either 3D Graphics Acceleration support with Parallel version 3 or PCI Express 2.0 with Virtualization support. Which happen to come out at about the same time so i am not sure if they are the same thing or not.
So generally i think Leopard will be the tricker moment for Mac sales "boom" LOL.
I think most Mac user are still waiting for leopard to buy mac for upgrade.
Professional are waiting for more universal binary application such as the recent Maya, and app from adobe.
Geeks / Advanced Computer user now love mac due to the Vista Effect :P are either waiting for the Top Secret feature to be announced before they decide or waiting for Leopard as well.
Casual Gamer are waiting for either 3D Graphics Acceleration support with Parallel version 3 or PCI Express 2.0 with Virtualization support. Which happen to come out at about the same time so i am not sure if they are the same thing or not.
So generally i think Leopard will be the tricker moment for Mac sales "boom" LOL.
I don't think that most consumers are waiting for Leopard.
I don't think that most consumers have even HEARD of Leopard.
As Apple is saying the phone call now, they expected this.
While I'm very happy about the overall numbers, I would have prefered to see more Mac sales, and less iPod sales.
There is NO increase in Mac sales over the last quarter, perhaps even a few less.
That's not good. It's well below estimates.
That could be one of the reasons why the after hours stock price hasn't jumped
Next quarters estimates don't thrill me either. Much lower that anyone expected, even with Apple's usual low numbers.
The estimates were around 1.8 million I think..... The numbers are stable but not the jump we all want to see.
Might be due to price competition slowing potential switchers. I've seen some really good deals at places like Costco that absolutely blow the the doors of an iBook for some really nice HP computers. There are also some clunkers from Dell that compete for the iBook buyers (I just purchased one for our company.. before I saw the HP's).
The Dell clunker was an Inspron 640m 14 inch wide screen, had stuff like 160GB 5400 RPM drive, 1GB ram, (1.6 Core 2 Duo), 8X CD/DVD Burner (double-layer DVD+R write capability), built in wireless, modem, 3 year On-site service, built in card reader, yadda, yadd, yadda.$1,300 after tax and shipping. (About $700 cheaper then the iBook would have been.
Wouldn't a 30% increase in Mac sales, year-over-year, mean doubling their market share in 3 years?
There is a paradigm shift that is in the wings with Parallels -- and the companies shipping Macs with it (and the beast) pre-configured. I think we are starting to see that shift. They're on the right track, in any case.
Well, good point. Enterprise, small business and terrific press Apple Mac 'mind share' is show some traction. In Edu'. Unit growth of 28% for Macs in Europe. Flat sales are not all doom and gloom. Like Mel', I'd hoped for 1.8 million-ish Macs for the quarter. Mac growth was pretty good 10% - 20% in Europe in certain countries.
I guess we have more stores, international stores to look forward to and that may boost European, international Mac unit sales.
Quote:
I don't know about "everybody," but my Mac Pro purchase is waiting until I see what's what with Leopard, Adobe CS3 and new displays (if any).
It's a factor. Leopard must the key inertia on Mac sales. It's made me keep my wallet shut.
As many were, I was hoping for something (announcements, hints, anything) at Macworld, but it didn't work out that way. So now I have put the purchase on the back burner and it is going to stay there until I see something from Apple.
CFO. On webcast is putting slight unit drop down to post Education sales. ie they have a strong edu market and had expected Q4 sales to go down. And that it had happened last year.
Backburner. I guess people are waiting for Leopard. Intel centric designs. And a more configurable product. Photoshop may be a factor in pro sales. Desktop sales may show a trend to go south vs Laptops. But I'm convinced Apple's desktop range isn't as strong as it should be a product 'MIX'.
They've re-iterated 'spring' ship date for Leopard.
Perhaps expansion of Best Buy pilots and expansion of Mac channel will all kick in as Mac mindshare grows.
If you're getting 3x market growth...sooner or later, sales, unit sales are going to surge.
I think most Mac user are still waiting for leopard to buy mac for upgrade.
Professional are waiting for more universal binary application such as the recent Maya, and app from adobe.
Geeks / Advanced Computer user now love mac due to the Vista Effect :P are either waiting for the Top Secret feature to be announced before they decide or waiting for Leopard as well.
Casual Gamer are waiting for either 3D Graphics Acceleration support with Parallel version 3 or PCI Express 2.0 with Virtualization support. Which happen to come out at about the same time so i am not sure if they are the same thing or not.
I think Leopard must be a factor. Whether all consumers are waiting for it is another thing. Clearly 'all of them' weren't.
But I think it probably slowed Mac sales. It's one of many factors that stopped Mac sales hitting 1.8 million.
Also, Vista. Consumers will wait and look at that before switching.
I also couldn't help but notice the 'cheap', 'it'll do', 'clunker' laptop wintel machines being flogged at PC World. And...
Apple has to compete.
I'm still confident Apple's laptop sales will head towards 1.4 million per quarter and 600k desktops should be doable. For a total of 2million.
They're still x3 growth. And intent to buy a Portable or Mac desktop...or it's momentum is still strong. 8 quarters of Macs out growing the market growth rate for PC sales?
Well, good point. Enterprise, small business and terrific press Apple Mac 'mind share' is show some traction. In Edu'. Unit growth of 28% for Macs in Europe. Flat sales are not all doom and gloom. Like Mel', I'd hoped for 1.8 million-ish Macs for the quarter. Mac growth was pretty good 10% - 20% in Europe in certain countries.
What I read about enterprise, ther is still not much to hope for there.
Quote:
I guess we have more stores, international stores to look forward to and that may boost European, international Mac unit sales.
True.
Quote:
CFO. On webcast is putting slight unit drop down to post Education sales. ie they have a strong edu market and had expected Q4 sales to go down. And that it had happened last year.
Yes, I'm listen to that. I don't remember the sales a year ago that quarter, but I don't remember the drop.
Quote:
Backburner. I guess people are waiting for Leopard. Intel centric designs. And a more configurable product. Photoshop may be a factor in pro sales. Desktop sales may show a trend to go south vs Laptops. But I'm convinced Apple's desktop range isn't as strong as it should be a product 'MIX'.
They've re-iterated 'spring' ship date for Leopard.
I really don't believe that sales are very dependent on Leopard. While the techies, those of us here, for example, will care, and MAY, wait, most people don't know about Leopard, even many Mac users!
Quote:
Perhaps expansion of Best Buy pilots and expansion of Mac channel will all kick in as Mac mindshare grows.
That's the idea.
Quote:
If you're getting 3x market growth...sooner or later, sales, unit sales are going to surge.
Lemon Bon Bon
That works the other way around. If market growth is 1% sales won't move much, even at 3 times that number.
But Apple just said that they were *thrilled* with Mac sales this quarter. They are being asked time and time again about it.
CFO. On webcast is putting slight unit drop down to post Education sales. ie they have a strong edu market and had expected Q4 sales to go down. And that it had happened last year.
I thought I'd remembered it being flat Q3 to Q4 at this time of year too.
And the reasons some people will be holding off is that they're waiting for Intel apps (Adobe CS, ex-Macromedia stuff, MS Office...), they're waiting for Leopard and they're waiting for Intel's new chips. There were hints at CES from some laptop manufacturers that the Santa Rosa chipset is already available to OEMs, just not announced yet. eg. http://www.engadget.com/2007/01/15/m...d-nvidia-nb8p/
Laptop sales have had a lot to do with Apple's unit sales growth over the last while. Trouble being, while Apple's MacBook pricing was reasonably in the ball park for a while, average PC laptop prices continue to drop. This has already pretty much happened for Apple on the desktop, laptops were supposed to be the salvation.
This is a real problem for Apple: they set a price point that they are loath to drop below, unless very slowly. They instead add features and value at their preset price points. In effect, they are declaring their prices as the buy-in point for a "quality" computer experience.
The problem being that when average prices keep falling in the PC world, it moves the perception of where the "quality" line is ever downward.
It's not like "the good" PCs are just sitting there at a given price point while manufacturers figure out how to make cheaper and cheaper ones at the bottom-- the entire pricing structure keeps dropping.
So that $1000 MacBook that looked competitive "for what you got" a year ago doesn't look quite so competitive now, and it will look even less competitive a year from now.
It's an artifact of Apple's narrow product matrix: other manufacturers can cycle older stuff downward through the ranks while they bring out new stuff. Apple doesn't have any "downward", which is fine if "downward" equals crap, but when "downward" equals last years Core2Duo laptop and more than enough computer to do anything you want, fast, then it becomes a disincentive powerful enough to negate any perceived advantages of the OS or ecology (AKA Halo effect).
Not that I'm saying that Apple is doomed, mind you, I'm just pointing out that growing market share is a tough nut to crack with all this going on. When PC laptops are selling at an average price of $500 (which they will, soon enough), and those laptops are fairly well specced (if ugly and not so nicely put together) convincing people that the $1000 consumer entry level Apple laptop is well worth the premium is an up-hill climb.
Well said Addabox. I have believed for the last couple of years now that Apple's product mix is too narrow. It's very frustrating because I believe they are so close to having the perfect line-up. They don't need anywhere near as many different products as their competitors have, but they need a few more than they have now.
It would seem that they are having trouble comprehending this isn't 1997 - 2001 anymore. The days of being close to the edge are over, Apple can afford to broaden their product range without fear of new models significantly cannibalising existing ones.
On the laptop front, they need more flexibility. Why is screen size tied to "horsepower"? Why is the minimum CPU a Core 2 Duo? Why do all of the laptops come with iSight? With Front Row? With Airport? With Bluetooth? If customers don't want these features, don't force them to buy them, allow them to remove the features and save some money. All models should be screen-size customisable, so you choose MacBook or MacBook Pro, then CPU speed, then 13", 15" or 17" widescreen, etc. etc. A single ultra-portable (neither MacBook nor MacBook Pro - MacBook Nano or Mini, perhaps) model wouldn't go amiss, either.
On the desktop side, yes, Apple should have an actual desktop computer that uses consumer-aimed desktop components at consumer prices. I.e., a mini-tower desktop that's much cheaper (and less capable) than the Mac Pro.
I'm still convinced that if Apple want Mac sales of 2+ million/quarter, changes along these lines are required.
Oh yeah, and advertising OS X wouldn't hurt, surely? I don't get why they don't take a leaf out of their own "aggressive marketing of iPod" book and apply it to OS X and Macs.
I think the one advantage Apple has is being down played. The fact that Apple makes more profit per sale than HP and Dell. A real advantage that will keep the company going.
There are a few factors that limit Apple's ability to sell computers. Not shipping with Windows is one obvious disadvantage. But I continue to read that the over all computer market is not growing as fast as it did 10 years ago. They heyday of the PC is about over. Dell and HP are left to fight over shrinking sales with shrinking prices.
The market clearly is shifting towards portable devices. Evidenced in shrinking desktop sales and increased laptop sales. Also in the emerging ultra mobile computer. I think this is what Steve meant when he made the Wayne Gretzky quote about looking for where the puck is going not on where its been. Fighting the PC market with low prices is the old fight, mobile computers are the future.
Apple plays down the iPhone being a ultra portable computer but clearly it is. I think Apple has much broader plans for the iPhone but wants to deflect attention away from that aspect. So when they reveal their broader plans everyone will be surprised.
Yes, I'm listen to that. I don't remember the sales a year ago that quarter, but I don't remember the drop.
Last year's sales were 1.236 million Macs in Q4 and 1.254 million Macs in Q1 (vs. 1.610 million Q4 and 1.606 million in Q1). You're talking about a growth of 1.4% versus a drop of 0.2%. Technically speaking, there was not a drop last year (in overall sales - may well have been one in EDU sales), but from a statistical standpoint it was basically flat. A difference is 1.6% is not very meaningful - it can easily be driven by factors like weather, overall consumer spending, the hardware refresh cycle throughout the quarter, etc. etc. The difference just happened to cross the threshold of zero, but there is really nothing magical about that.
So, for better or for worse, the Q4/Q1 pattern this year looks almost exactly like the Q4/Q1 pattern last year.
For those who were hoping for 2 million Macs - which would have meant a sustained quarterly growth rate of around 23% (129% annual growth rate!!!), sorry, something that dramatic just is not likely to happen in back-to-back quarters.
For those who were hoping for 2 million Macs - which would have meant a sustained quarterly growth rate of around 23% (129% annual growth rate!!!), sorry, something that dramatic just is not likely to happen in back-to-back quarters.
Actually, I was hoping for 200% annual growth.
and a mid-tower
and a $500 iBook
and the announcement that Apple was buying Adobe and releasing CS3 tomorrow
and iLife with full Office killing powers
and a kung-fu grip iMac
and...
enough.
Would it kill people to say "life is good. Apple is rocking..."?
Last year's sales were 1.236 million Macs in Q4 and 1.254 million Macs in Q1 (vs. 1.610 million Q4 and 1.606 million in Q1). You're talking about a growth of 1.4% versus a drop of 0.2%. Technically speaking, there was not a drop last year (in overall sales - may well have been one in EDU sales), but from a statistical standpoint it was basically flat. A difference is 1.6% is not very meaningful - it can easily be driven by factors like weather, overall consumer spending, the hardware refresh cycle throughout the quarter, etc. etc. The difference just happened to cross the threshold of zero, but there is really nothing magical about that.
So, for better or for worse, the Q4/Q1 pattern this year looks almost exactly like the Q4/Q1 pattern last year.
True dat. Seems like the July-September 'Back to School' quarter is under-appreciated, and every bit the equal of the October-December 'Holiday' quarter.
Still, I can't help but feel Apple should be doing better here. Profits are through the roof, so its time for $999 MacBooks, and perhaps a subnotebook as well.
Comments
Professional are waiting for more universal binary application such as the recent Maya, and app from adobe.
Geeks / Advanced Computer user now love mac due to the Vista Effect :P are either waiting for the Top Secret feature to be announced before they decide or waiting for Leopard as well.
Casual Gamer are waiting for either 3D Graphics Acceleration support with Parallel version 3 or PCI Express 2.0 with Virtualization support. Which happen to come out at about the same time so i am not sure if they are the same thing or not.
So generally i think Leopard will be the tricker moment for Mac sales "boom" LOL.
I think most Mac user are still waiting for leopard to buy mac for upgrade.
Professional are waiting for more universal binary application such as the recent Maya, and app from adobe.
Geeks / Advanced Computer user now love mac due to the Vista Effect :P are either waiting for the Top Secret feature to be announced before they decide or waiting for Leopard as well.
Casual Gamer are waiting for either 3D Graphics Acceleration support with Parallel version 3 or PCI Express 2.0 with Virtualization support. Which happen to come out at about the same time so i am not sure if they are the same thing or not.
So generally i think Leopard will be the tricker moment for Mac sales "boom" LOL.
I don't think that most consumers are waiting for Leopard.
I don't think that most consumers have even HEARD of Leopard.
As Apple is saying the phone call now, they expected this.
While I'm very happy about the overall numbers, I would have prefered to see more Mac sales, and less iPod sales.
There is NO increase in Mac sales over the last quarter, perhaps even a few less.
That's not good. It's well below estimates.
That could be one of the reasons why the after hours stock price hasn't jumped
Next quarters estimates don't thrill me either. Much lower that anyone expected, even with Apple's usual low numbers.
The estimates were around 1.8 million I think..... The numbers are stable but not the jump we all want to see.
Might be due to price competition slowing potential switchers. I've seen some really good deals at places like Costco that absolutely blow the the doors of an iBook for some really nice HP computers. There are also some clunkers from Dell that compete for the iBook buyers (I just purchased one for our company.. before I saw the HP's).
The Dell clunker was an Inspron 640m 14 inch wide screen, had stuff like 160GB 5400 RPM drive, 1GB ram, (1.6 Core 2 Duo), 8X CD/DVD Burner (double-layer DVD+R write capability), built in wireless, modem, 3 year On-site service, built in card reader, yadda, yadd, yadda.$1,300 after tax and shipping. (About $700 cheaper then the iBook would have been.
Wouldn't a 30% increase in Mac sales, year-over-year, mean doubling their market share in 3 years?
There is a paradigm shift that is in the wings with Parallels -- and the companies shipping Macs with it (and the beast) pre-configured. I think we are starting to see that shift. They're on the right track, in any case.
Well, good point. Enterprise, small business and terrific press Apple Mac 'mind share' is show some traction. In Edu'. Unit growth of 28% for Macs in Europe. Flat sales are not all doom and gloom. Like Mel', I'd hoped for 1.8 million-ish Macs for the quarter. Mac growth was pretty good 10% - 20% in Europe in certain countries.
I guess we have more stores, international stores to look forward to and that may boost European, international Mac unit sales.
I don't know about "everybody," but my Mac Pro purchase is waiting until I see what's what with Leopard, Adobe CS3 and new displays (if any).
It's a factor. Leopard must the key inertia on Mac sales. It's made me keep my wallet shut.
As many were, I was hoping for something (announcements, hints, anything) at Macworld, but it didn't work out that way. So now I have put the purchase on the back burner and it is going to stay there until I see something from Apple.
CFO. On webcast is putting slight unit drop down to post Education sales. ie they have a strong edu market and had expected Q4 sales to go down. And that it had happened last year.
Backburner. I guess people are waiting for Leopard. Intel centric designs. And a more configurable product. Photoshop may be a factor in pro sales. Desktop sales may show a trend to go south vs Laptops. But I'm convinced Apple's desktop range isn't as strong as it should be a product 'MIX'.
They've re-iterated 'spring' ship date for Leopard.
Perhaps expansion of Best Buy pilots and expansion of Mac channel will all kick in as Mac mindshare grows.
If you're getting 3x market growth...sooner or later, sales, unit sales are going to surge.
Lemon Bon Bon
I think most Mac user are still waiting for leopard to buy mac for upgrade.
Professional are waiting for more universal binary application such as the recent Maya, and app from adobe.
Geeks / Advanced Computer user now love mac due to the Vista Effect :P are either waiting for the Top Secret feature to be announced before they decide or waiting for Leopard as well.
Casual Gamer are waiting for either 3D Graphics Acceleration support with Parallel version 3 or PCI Express 2.0 with Virtualization support. Which happen to come out at about the same time so i am not sure if they are the same thing or not.
I think Leopard must be a factor. Whether all consumers are waiting for it is another thing. Clearly 'all of them' weren't.
But I think it probably slowed Mac sales. It's one of many factors that stopped Mac sales hitting 1.8 million.
Also, Vista. Consumers will wait and look at that before switching.
I also couldn't help but notice the 'cheap', 'it'll do', 'clunker' laptop wintel machines being flogged at PC World. And...
Apple has to compete.
I'm still confident Apple's laptop sales will head towards 1.4 million per quarter and 600k desktops should be doable. For a total of 2million.
They're still x3 growth. And intent to buy a Portable or Mac desktop...or it's momentum is still strong. 8 quarters of Macs out growing the market growth rate for PC sales?
Lemon Bon Bon
Well, good point. Enterprise, small business and terrific press Apple Mac 'mind share' is show some traction. In Edu'. Unit growth of 28% for Macs in Europe. Flat sales are not all doom and gloom. Like Mel', I'd hoped for 1.8 million-ish Macs for the quarter. Mac growth was pretty good 10% - 20% in Europe in certain countries.
What I read about enterprise, ther is still not much to hope for there.
I guess we have more stores, international stores to look forward to and that may boost European, international Mac unit sales.
True.
CFO. On webcast is putting slight unit drop down to post Education sales. ie they have a strong edu market and had expected Q4 sales to go down. And that it had happened last year.
Yes, I'm listen to that. I don't remember the sales a year ago that quarter, but I don't remember the drop.
Backburner. I guess people are waiting for Leopard. Intel centric designs. And a more configurable product. Photoshop may be a factor in pro sales. Desktop sales may show a trend to go south vs Laptops. But I'm convinced Apple's desktop range isn't as strong as it should be a product 'MIX'.
They've re-iterated 'spring' ship date for Leopard.
I really don't believe that sales are very dependent on Leopard. While the techies, those of us here, for example, will care, and MAY, wait, most people don't know about Leopard, even many Mac users!
Perhaps expansion of Best Buy pilots and expansion of Mac channel will all kick in as Mac mindshare grows.
That's the idea.
If you're getting 3x market growth...sooner or later, sales, unit sales are going to surge.
Lemon Bon Bon
That works the other way around. If market growth is 1% sales won't move much, even at 3 times that number.
But Apple just said that they were *thrilled* with Mac sales this quarter. They are being asked time and time again about it.
CFO. On webcast is putting slight unit drop down to post Education sales. ie they have a strong edu market and had expected Q4 sales to go down. And that it had happened last year.
I thought I'd remembered it being flat Q3 to Q4 at this time of year too.
And the reasons some people will be holding off is that they're waiting for Intel apps (Adobe CS, ex-Macromedia stuff, MS Office...), they're waiting for Leopard and they're waiting for Intel's new chips. There were hints at CES from some laptop manufacturers that the Santa Rosa chipset is already available to OEMs, just not announced yet. eg. http://www.engadget.com/2007/01/15/m...d-nvidia-nb8p/
iLife January refresh;
Apple:
We don't tell about, blah, blah..but keep tuned.
This is a real problem for Apple: they set a price point that they are loath to drop below, unless very slowly. They instead add features and value at their preset price points. In effect, they are declaring their prices as the buy-in point for a "quality" computer experience.
The problem being that when average prices keep falling in the PC world, it moves the perception of where the "quality" line is ever downward.
It's not like "the good" PCs are just sitting there at a given price point while manufacturers figure out how to make cheaper and cheaper ones at the bottom-- the entire pricing structure keeps dropping.
So that $1000 MacBook that looked competitive "for what you got" a year ago doesn't look quite so competitive now, and it will look even less competitive a year from now.
It's an artifact of Apple's narrow product matrix: other manufacturers can cycle older stuff downward through the ranks while they bring out new stuff. Apple doesn't have any "downward", which is fine if "downward" equals crap, but when "downward" equals last years Core2Duo laptop and more than enough computer to do anything you want, fast, then it becomes a disincentive powerful enough to negate any perceived advantages of the OS or ecology (AKA Halo effect).
Not that I'm saying that Apple is doomed, mind you, I'm just pointing out that growing market share is a tough nut to crack with all this going on. When PC laptops are selling at an average price of $500 (which they will, soon enough), and those laptops are fairly well specced (if ugly and not so nicely put together) convincing people that the $1000 consumer entry level Apple laptop is well worth the premium is an up-hill climb.
From the call:
iLife January refresh;
Yay! I do hope they're understating the changes there though by just calling it a refresh.
Yay! I do hope they're understating the changes there though by just calling it a refresh.
with Apple, there's always hope.
And Macbook Pro sales were VERY strong.
Call is over.
It was interesting. As usual, some of what they won't say is even more interesting than what they do say.
No word at all about Mac updates though.
It would seem that they are having trouble comprehending this isn't 1997 - 2001 anymore. The days of being close to the edge are over, Apple can afford to broaden their product range without fear of new models significantly cannibalising existing ones.
On the laptop front, they need more flexibility. Why is screen size tied to "horsepower"? Why is the minimum CPU a Core 2 Duo? Why do all of the laptops come with iSight? With Front Row? With Airport? With Bluetooth? If customers don't want these features, don't force them to buy them, allow them to remove the features and save some money. All models should be screen-size customisable, so you choose MacBook or MacBook Pro, then CPU speed, then 13", 15" or 17" widescreen, etc. etc. A single ultra-portable (neither MacBook nor MacBook Pro - MacBook Nano or Mini, perhaps) model wouldn't go amiss, either.
On the desktop side, yes, Apple should have an actual desktop computer that uses consumer-aimed desktop components at consumer prices. I.e., a mini-tower desktop that's much cheaper (and less capable) than the Mac Pro.
I'm still convinced that if Apple want Mac sales of 2+ million/quarter, changes along these lines are required.
Oh yeah, and advertising OS X wouldn't hurt, surely? I don't get why they don't take a leaf out of their own "aggressive marketing of iPod" book and apply it to OS X and Macs.
with Apple, there's always hope.
And Macbook Pro sales were VERY strong.
Call is over.
It was interesting. As usual, some of what they won't say is even more interesting than what they do say.
No word at all about Mac updates though.
Not only the MacBook Pro sales were strong.
It seems higher-end iMacs and (maybe Mac Pros) did good as well.
40k less Macs sold than the previous quarter.
But 9% more revenue than the previous quarter.
10% for the desktop Macs
8% for the portable Macs
linkie, scroll down the page.
There are a few factors that limit Apple's ability to sell computers. Not shipping with Windows is one obvious disadvantage. But I continue to read that the over all computer market is not growing as fast as it did 10 years ago. They heyday of the PC is about over. Dell and HP are left to fight over shrinking sales with shrinking prices.
The market clearly is shifting towards portable devices. Evidenced in shrinking desktop sales and increased laptop sales. Also in the emerging ultra mobile computer. I think this is what Steve meant when he made the Wayne Gretzky quote about looking for where the puck is going not on where its been. Fighting the PC market with low prices is the old fight, mobile computers are the future.
Apple plays down the iPhone being a ultra portable computer but clearly it is. I think Apple has much broader plans for the iPhone but wants to deflect attention away from that aspect. So when they reveal their broader plans everyone will be surprised.
demand for Macs. Some people are waiting for Apple software, some
people are waiting for non-Apple software, and some people are
waiting for new configurations which better meet their needs. I think
products will arrive which will relieve this pent-up demand during 2007,
and Mac sales will ramp steadily higher.
Regarding the AppleTV sales, it just proves once again that a product
which savvy tech people consider underfeatured and lame can look
mighty attractive to large numbers of consumers without particular
expectations.
While it is tempting to wish that Apple would just floor the accelerator
and produce everything all at once, I kind of like the way they roll out
products at a steady pace. Investors like companies who have smooth
earnings growth better than companies who have wild volatile earnings
cycles.
Yes, I'm listen to that. I don't remember the sales a year ago that quarter, but I don't remember the drop.
Last year's sales were 1.236 million Macs in Q4 and 1.254 million Macs in Q1 (vs. 1.610 million Q4 and 1.606 million in Q1). You're talking about a growth of 1.4% versus a drop of 0.2%. Technically speaking, there was not a drop last year (in overall sales - may well have been one in EDU sales), but from a statistical standpoint it was basically flat. A difference is 1.6% is not very meaningful - it can easily be driven by factors like weather, overall consumer spending, the hardware refresh cycle throughout the quarter, etc. etc. The difference just happened to cross the threshold of zero, but there is really nothing magical about that.
So, for better or for worse, the Q4/Q1 pattern this year looks almost exactly like the Q4/Q1 pattern last year.
For those who were hoping for 2 million Macs - which would have meant a sustained quarterly growth rate of around 23% (129% annual growth rate!!!), sorry, something that dramatic just is not likely to happen in back-to-back quarters.
For those who were hoping for 2 million Macs - which would have meant a sustained quarterly growth rate of around 23% (129% annual growth rate!!!), sorry, something that dramatic just is not likely to happen in back-to-back quarters.
Actually, I was hoping for 200% annual growth.
and a mid-tower
and a $500 iBook
and the announcement that Apple was buying Adobe and releasing CS3 tomorrow
and iLife with full Office killing powers
and a kung-fu grip iMac
and...
enough.
Would it kill people to say "life is good. Apple is rocking..."?
Last year's sales were 1.236 million Macs in Q4 and 1.254 million Macs in Q1 (vs. 1.610 million Q4 and 1.606 million in Q1). You're talking about a growth of 1.4% versus a drop of 0.2%. Technically speaking, there was not a drop last year (in overall sales - may well have been one in EDU sales), but from a statistical standpoint it was basically flat. A difference is 1.6% is not very meaningful - it can easily be driven by factors like weather, overall consumer spending, the hardware refresh cycle throughout the quarter, etc. etc. The difference just happened to cross the threshold of zero, but there is really nothing magical about that.
So, for better or for worse, the Q4/Q1 pattern this year looks almost exactly like the Q4/Q1 pattern last year.
True dat. Seems like the July-September 'Back to School' quarter is under-appreciated, and every bit the equal of the October-December 'Holiday' quarter.
Still, I can't help but feel Apple should be doing better here. Profits are through the roof, so its time for $999 MacBooks, and perhaps a subnotebook as well.
Never give Michael Dell an even break.
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