Apple's multi-touch technology seen spawning "mega-platform"
Financial experts at UBS Investment Research say they believe Apple Inc. is developing a "mega-platform" based around its recently introduced multi-touch display technology that will facilitate broad growth opportunities through an assortment of future products.
In a research note issued Tuesday, analyst Ben Reitzes encouraged his clients to look past the minute details of the initial iPhone and focus on the power that lies in the 'unannounced' multi-touch ecosystem that will eventually find its way into several products across the company's product portfolio.
"We believe this 'Mega-Platform' could help Apple become an 'open-ended' growth story once again with a logical chronology of new products for years to come," the analyst wrote.
Reitzes, who maintains a Buy rating on shares of the Cupertino-based company, said the firm is in a similar position with the multi-touch platform as it was in 2001-2003 when it launched its first iPods with the popular click wheels. "At that time," he explained, "it was perhaps irrelevant to focus on the details around the initial iPods ? things like capacity and the relatively high $399 price point."
The UBS analyst said he expects the new platform to become prevalent in each of the consumer electronics maker's major hardware products within 3-5 years, possibly sparking touchscreen Macs later this holiday season or sometime in 2008. Among his expectations are touch-screen iMacs, as well as "tablet-like" notebook devices that provide basic computing without the need for a keyboard or stylus if the user desires to keep the device closed.
"We also expect new touchscreen video iPods, more phones and possibly even TVs in the future," he added. "With regard to the iPhone, we expect Apple to have a full line of phones from $150 to $600 available for purchase at multiple retailers in several geographies within three years, just like it did for iPods."
Attempting to quantify the potential effect of the mega-platform, Reitzes estimated the resulting array of multi-touch devices could add about $1.00 -- $0.35 from iPhones, $0.30 from Macs, $0.06 from ultra-portables and $0.33 from iPods -- to Apple's annualized per-share earnings power at some point during fiscal 2009.
"This math does not even include the added benefits of improving retail profitability and catalyzing the services and accessories businesses like the iPod did," he told clients.
While Reitzes did not use Tuesday's research note to alter his Apple model, he noted that his current estimates of $3.20 per-share earnings on sales of $24.6 billion may prove to be conservative.
UBS maintains a $124 price target on shares of the company.
In a research note issued Tuesday, analyst Ben Reitzes encouraged his clients to look past the minute details of the initial iPhone and focus on the power that lies in the 'unannounced' multi-touch ecosystem that will eventually find its way into several products across the company's product portfolio.
"We believe this 'Mega-Platform' could help Apple become an 'open-ended' growth story once again with a logical chronology of new products for years to come," the analyst wrote.
Reitzes, who maintains a Buy rating on shares of the Cupertino-based company, said the firm is in a similar position with the multi-touch platform as it was in 2001-2003 when it launched its first iPods with the popular click wheels. "At that time," he explained, "it was perhaps irrelevant to focus on the details around the initial iPods ? things like capacity and the relatively high $399 price point."
The UBS analyst said he expects the new platform to become prevalent in each of the consumer electronics maker's major hardware products within 3-5 years, possibly sparking touchscreen Macs later this holiday season or sometime in 2008. Among his expectations are touch-screen iMacs, as well as "tablet-like" notebook devices that provide basic computing without the need for a keyboard or stylus if the user desires to keep the device closed.
"We also expect new touchscreen video iPods, more phones and possibly even TVs in the future," he added. "With regard to the iPhone, we expect Apple to have a full line of phones from $150 to $600 available for purchase at multiple retailers in several geographies within three years, just like it did for iPods."
Attempting to quantify the potential effect of the mega-platform, Reitzes estimated the resulting array of multi-touch devices could add about $1.00 -- $0.35 from iPhones, $0.30 from Macs, $0.06 from ultra-portables and $0.33 from iPods -- to Apple's annualized per-share earnings power at some point during fiscal 2009.
"This math does not even include the added benefits of improving retail profitability and catalyzing the services and accessories businesses like the iPod did," he told clients.
While Reitzes did not use Tuesday's research note to alter his Apple model, he noted that his current estimates of $3.20 per-share earnings on sales of $24.6 billion may prove to be conservative.
UBS maintains a $124 price target on shares of the company.
Comments
That is all.
Touch screen Macs - Noooooooooooooooo!
Anyone who gets their greasy fingers on my Mac's screen will feel the wrath of my shatterproof plastic ruler across their knuckles!
Touch screen Macs - Noooooooooooooooo!
I think we'll have to wait and see how they handle it with the iPhone. I hope they have some sort of smudge and scratch resistant coating.
Tablets, definitely. Portables.......... maybe, though that often has the same problem as desktops... reaching out in front of you. To make a touch-interactive UI really usable, the device has to be lightweight and easy to touch. I know it sounds stupid, but not all computers are easy to touch!
-Clive
Here's a good example if you're having trouble imagining Multi-Touch UI in OS X:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5JcSu7h-I40
I think we'll have to wait and see how they handle it with the iPhone. I hope they have some sort of smudge and scratch resistant coating.
I don't mind that on a phone. You can wipe them on your shirt easy enough. It's a little trickier with a 24" iMac.
Maybe they'll expand into OQO like devices (and I'd buy one in a heartbeat) but I think the analyst is somewhat off the mark with touchscreen iMacs.
Financial experts at UBS Investment Research say they believe Apple Inc. is developing a "mega-platform" based around its recently introduced multi-touch display technology that will facilitate broad growth opportunities through an assortment of future products.
Perhaps a few of us have not seen Jeff Han's presentation. http://www.ted.com/tedtalks/tedtalks....cfm?key=j_han
Its coming and it's Apple that is bringing it to us. Check out the keyboard. It doesn't mean that it will replace the mechanical today, but I do see a way to marry them both. Certainly, it appears that Apple just may re-invent the computer. Again.
Perhaps a few shares of Windex are also in order.
What do Financial Experts know about technology and usuability and so on. They are guessing that this technolgies will be used everywhere. I doubt it very much, it works in some applications where gestering is natural to do but applicate a technology wronging will kill it really fast.
That said, if anyone could find a way to make this tech useful in a larger device (I think it's great for ipods or a phone)
I think we'll have to wait and see how they handle it with the iPhone. I hope they have some sort of smudge and scratch resistant coating.
If people look closely at job's demo of the iphone you can see finger smudges arcoss the screen when he was using it. As far as I am aware there is no way to stop oils from your fingers from getting on the displace and building up over time.
Also, the mechanical feedback is really a great thing with keyboards and mouses. That's one reason why I (and I'm sure many of you) would never use the mighty mouse. I appreciate the audio and tactile feedback I get from distinct mouse buttons.
This is true, our generation was raised on tactile feeback, all the games and learning we all have done was based on this principle. In order for mutli-touch and visual feedback to be intuitive your whole learning experience has to be based on it. The younger generation could take serious advantage of this. It maybe less useful to the rest of us.
To be honest, I don't see an immediate need for this in desktop models. Who wants to reach across the desk for hours? What about people who use Macs for 8 hours a day at work? Not a good idea.
Tablets, definitely. Portables.......... maybe, though that often has the same problem as desktops... reaching out in front of you. To make a touch-interactive UI really usable, the device has to be lightweight and easy to touch. I know it sounds stupid, but not all computers are easy to touch!
What I envision is something like Jeff Han's approach where the screen is nearly flat on the desk but slanted a bit toward the user. So I agree in one sense, I don't see it working on a display that is vertical except for brief intervals. I want something like that, but not at the Cintiq's pricing, which is the closest commercial equivalent, but that isn't multi-touch.
"FingerWorks products need no on-screen contact to work. A FingerWorks keyboard senses the motion of fingers in the air, allowing users to "cut and paste" or zoom in and out with such simple gestures as "pinching" or "closing the lid of a jar."(1)
Further good reading: "iPhone and Jeff Han's Multi touch?
Yes, the iPhone uses Multi-touch technology. * FingerWorks has been bought by Apple in June 2006. * Jeff Han has NOT been hired by Apple to work on the iPhone There were rumors that Apple had tried (unsuccessfully) to hire Jeff at one point to work on the launch of the iphone. NY Times techie David Pogue even asked Steve Jobs about him on the day of the launch. Here's Jeff Hans' response on the iPhone: "The iPhone is absolutely gorgeous, and I've always said, if there ever were a company to bring this kind of technology to the consumer market, it's Apple. I just wish it were a bit bigger so I could really use both of my hands."(2)
As for that tactile feeling, perhaps a marrying of the Multi-touch technology with a single injection-moulded silicone keyboard such as the topside of a Indukey (3) could do.
1. http://www.delawareonline.com/apps/p...0357/-1/NEWS01
2. http://multi-touchscreen.com/
3. http://www.indukey.com/teaser/teaser/360/detail.html
P.S. For those of us who remember the uproar from the likes of IBM when the Mac was introduced in 1984. "The mouse is dead (or such)." Thank goodness, Steve didn't listen.
Other than that, how about an Apple universal remote that uses the multi-touch screen technology? The screen would change depending on whether you were using it with your Mac, AppleTV, iPod stereo or whatever, giving context sensitive visual controls for each device. Throw in support for select non-Apple products such as HDTVs and HD DVD/Blue Ray players, etc...
Also, the mechanical feedback is really a great thing with keyboards and mouses. That's one reason why I (and I'm sure many of you) would never use the mighty mouse. I appreciate the audio and tactile feedback I get from distinct mouse buttons.
Which is presumably why the mighty mouse has a speaker that emits clicks for the scroll wheel and the shell physically moves when you press on it with a nice positive click. In the older Pro Mice, they even came with adjustable click pressure.
Lifting your left finger to click the right 'button' seems to be the only thing some people don't quite get immediately but it soon becomes second nature IME.
I also switch off the side buttons. They're great most of the time but if you concentrate on drawing on Photoshop and the Dashboard suddenly appears because you've squeezed the mouse too hard it gets annoying quickly.
Try one someday for longer than the 15 minutes many people have attempted in an Apple Store.
I would be very, very interested in that. But it would have to include a pen, like the Wacom pen.
Apple still has inkwell built into OS X
Which is presumably why the mighty mouse has a speaker that emits clicks for the scroll wheel and the shell physically moves when you press on it with a nice positive click. In the older Pro Mice, they even came with adjustable click pressure.
Lifting your left finger to click the right 'button' seems to be the only thing some people don't quite get immediately but it soon becomes second nature IME.
I also switch off the side buttons. They're great most of the time but if you concentrate on drawing on Photoshop and the Dashboard suddenly appears because you've squeezed the mouse too hard it gets annoying quickly.
Try one someday for longer than the 15 minutes many people have attempted in an Apple Store.
I was actually refering to the lack of tactile feedback between the left and right mouse buttons. I don't move my fingers to right click, I just use the fingers that are already over there. The other big problem with the mouse is that it is too flat, and uncomfortable for me to hold.
To be honest, I don't see an immediate need for this in desktop models. Who wants to reach across the desk for hours? What about people who use Macs for 8 hours a day at work? Not a good idea.
Like your keyboard and mouse are going to suddenly break if you had a touchscreen? I don't think the boss is going to fall for that one, if you're looking for a disability check.