Apple's second quarter Mac sales may beat estimates
With just two weeks left in Apple Inc.'s fiscal second quarter, a survey of specialist retailers indicate that Mac unit shipments may fall only slightly from the company's breakout December quarter.
Analysts at research and investment firm PiperJaffray recently spoke with twenty of Apple's premier resellers and found that 85 percent of those resellers expect Mac sales will decline only slightly from the company's breakout December quarter. Those resellers described a "slight decline" as an approximate 5 to 10 percent drop-off.
Meanwhile, the remaining 15 percent said they see sales coming in flat, or on par with the holiday quarter.
"Usually the month of February is dead for Macs, but this year we have not had a measurable slowdown from the holiday (Dec) quarter," one Apple Specialist told the firm. Another commented that they "have seen higher than predicted demand for Macs in the March quarter" and are expecting sales "to be above" their original internal estimates.
Gene Munster, a senior analyst with PiperJaffray, was pleased by the response from the resellers. He believes the resellers' comments indicate that Apple is likely to prove Street Mac estimates to be conservative for the March quarter.
"The MacBook is leading the way this quarter," the analyst told clients in a research note. "65 percent of resellers said MacBooks are selling better than other Macs."
As part of the survey, Apple Specialist resellers were also asked to comment on Apple's upcoming Leopard operating system overhaul and weigh any effect on current sales. Just over half of the resellers said they have witnessed some Leopard-related purchase delays that have had a slight negative impact on Macs, while the remainder said anticipation of the upcoming release is not having an impact on sales of Macs.
"Some of our higher end customers are waiting to buy a Mac until Leopard comes out, many are also waiting for [Adobe] Creative Suite 3.0," one reseller said.
The resellers polled by PiperJaffray also have high hopes for Apple TV, but believe the device will need to be more fully understood by consumers before it turns into a major contributor to their business.
"Almost all (95 percent) resellers in our sample said they expect AppleTV will have a minor impact on business in the near term (next 1-2 qrtrs), with Apple faithful buying in an initial surge and others spending some additional time figuring out what AppleTV is," Munster wrote in his note to clients.
"Ultimately, most Apple specialist stores are optimistic about the long-term prospects for AppleTV," the analyst continued, "but are aware that it may take some time for the product to find itself in the headlights of the average consumer."
Analysts at research and investment firm PiperJaffray recently spoke with twenty of Apple's premier resellers and found that 85 percent of those resellers expect Mac sales will decline only slightly from the company's breakout December quarter. Those resellers described a "slight decline" as an approximate 5 to 10 percent drop-off.
Meanwhile, the remaining 15 percent said they see sales coming in flat, or on par with the holiday quarter.
"Usually the month of February is dead for Macs, but this year we have not had a measurable slowdown from the holiday (Dec) quarter," one Apple Specialist told the firm. Another commented that they "have seen higher than predicted demand for Macs in the March quarter" and are expecting sales "to be above" their original internal estimates.
Gene Munster, a senior analyst with PiperJaffray, was pleased by the response from the resellers. He believes the resellers' comments indicate that Apple is likely to prove Street Mac estimates to be conservative for the March quarter.
"The MacBook is leading the way this quarter," the analyst told clients in a research note. "65 percent of resellers said MacBooks are selling better than other Macs."
As part of the survey, Apple Specialist resellers were also asked to comment on Apple's upcoming Leopard operating system overhaul and weigh any effect on current sales. Just over half of the resellers said they have witnessed some Leopard-related purchase delays that have had a slight negative impact on Macs, while the remainder said anticipation of the upcoming release is not having an impact on sales of Macs.
"Some of our higher end customers are waiting to buy a Mac until Leopard comes out, many are also waiting for [Adobe] Creative Suite 3.0," one reseller said.
The resellers polled by PiperJaffray also have high hopes for Apple TV, but believe the device will need to be more fully understood by consumers before it turns into a major contributor to their business.
"Almost all (95 percent) resellers in our sample said they expect AppleTV will have a minor impact on business in the near term (next 1-2 qrtrs), with Apple faithful buying in an initial surge and others spending some additional time figuring out what AppleTV is," Munster wrote in his note to clients.
"Ultimately, most Apple specialist stores are optimistic about the long-term prospects for AppleTV," the analyst continued, "but are aware that it may take some time for the product to find itself in the headlights of the average consumer."
Comments
Most Apple fans would wait for Leopard before buying a system. This means that a great deal of these sales are to new customers. This quarter is usually Apple's worst. For them to be slightly behind their strongest quarter (1st) says a great deal about the momentum into 3rd and 4th quarter once AppleTV and the iPhone combined with Leopard and new hardware truly make an impact.
Of course, it's a fallacy to assume that sales in the first calendar quarter are always lower. 3 of the last 6 years the first quarter of the year was higher unit shipments of Macs than the Christmas quarter. That's a 50/50 shot of being right.
This is great news. For Apple to be selling a healthy number of Macs while keeping iPods on track, once again confirms that the company is in a very good position.
Most Apple fans would wait for Leopard before buying a system. This means that a great deal of these sales are to new customers. This quarter is usually Apple's worst. For them to be slightly behind their strongest quarter (1st) says a great deal about the momentum into 3rd and 4th quarter once AppleTV and the iPhone combined with Leopard and new hardware truly make an impact.
Sorry, I don't buy that most apple fans would wait for Leopard. Apple fans are going to buy leopard regardless of when it appears. They aren't going to hold off buying a new computer just for an OS.
Then again, its also misguided to think alot of these are going to new mac buyers. Why wouldn't THEY wait for Leopard as well? Do they not care? Or will they care, and get really pissed when they find out that Apple offers no upgrade path to their new OS, regardless of when you purchased your mac?
There are other options you're not considering.
Maybe Mac users are buying macs still now because they either feel Leopard is too far away to matter.
Or they fear the reports of the current state of known bugs as a bad sign and figure not to want to waste the time tying their computer purchase to an unknown commodity (buying a mac with Leopard could preclude them from putting Tiger on there due to issues with their apps).
(BTW, if you're one of those people who believe the "public" seeds are a smoke screen and apple has the real deal solid OS working internally, that doesn't help us users, as we need the developers to be testing their software with Leopard, not just taking Apple's word that the OS is fine. As such, if Apple announces it for early April release, most pros aren't going to touch it until they're sure the developers have a chance to make sure their key apps are going to work with it).
Or that Mac users are looking at Leopard and going "Well, I'm sure it has some nice features, but there's nothing really there to warrant waiting for, let alone upgrading to" (which is where I fit in). Just like people saying the same of Vista.
BTW, I just got a new C2D MacBook Pro a couple of weeks ago. Didn't give the supposed Leopard release a moment's consideration on that one.
They always do it... and i can't belive that no one saw why they delayed apple tv.. thats because they dont need that extra money this quarter.. they have sold more then enough macbooks to make the analyst happy.. they're gonna add the apple tvs not sold this quarter to the other... well and then they can delay other product releases and thats quarters won.. and price share roaring up.
Absolutely not. For one, Apple TV is shipping today and it is in the same quarter being discussed. As for your other assertions, I gather that you aren't a business major.
Absolutely not. For one, Apple TV is shipping today and it is in the same quarter being discussed. As for your other assertions, I gather that you aren't a business major.
I know its being shipped today.. thats exactly what i was saying.. thats delaying the product lifecicle... i'm not a major.. but a wanne be hehehe.. i try to see things from different angles.
They always do it...
They usually do, but last quarter Mac sales did not beat analysts' estimates. The consensus was 1.75 million Macs.
Sorry, I don't buy that most apple fans would wait for Leopard. Apple fans are going to buy leopard regardless of when it appears. They aren't going to hold off buying a new computer just for an OS.
Whaa? I'm a big Apple fan, and if I was interested in upgrading this year I'd definitely hold off on doing so until Leopard is released.
Why pay an extra $129 that you don't have to, when Leopard is likely no more than 3 months away?
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I know its being shipped today.. thats exactly what i was saying.. thats delaying the product lifecicle... i'm not a major.. but a wanne be hehehe.. i try to see things from different angles.
So the AppleTV is finally shipping? Good, it's time for me to research HDTVs.
I'm suprised that the AppleTV hasn't replaced the iPhone as the "main" item on Apple's homepage, it certainly deserves it.
Whaa? I'm a big Apple fan, and if I was interested in upgrading this year I'd definitely hold off on doing so until Leopard is released.
Why pay an extra $129 that you don't have to, when Leopard is likely no more than 3 months away?
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Well, I needed a new computer, as my 3 year old iBook was definitely killing me, speed wise. And, like I said, so far there isn't anything about leopard that warrants my waiting. Maybe all that super-secret stuff, but who knows what that will be.
But even glancing at their leopard page, Apple's touts Time Machine (hmmm, already have a backup solution, but thanks), Mail (don't use it), Spotlight (oooh - is there a way yet to turn it off?), Dashboard (um, already got it), Spaces (if I wanted it, I could be doing it now with some shareware/freeware), and CoreAnimation (meaningless to all but programmers). What exactly is there in Leopard that makes it a must-have for people?
One other thing. I believe Apple's already made comments to imply that Leopard's going to be costing more than $130. My guess would be $150.
What exactly is there in Leopard that makes it a must-have for people?
Well, resolution-independence for one, though apps supporting it won't show up for awhile.
And the fact that every new version of OS X has been significantly faster than the one preceding it. Tiger's reasonably responsive, but could be faster still.
And if I'm getting Leopard for free with a new Mac, all the better. 8)
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But the most compelling reason you'll probably find is that applications are going to very rapidly switch to "10.5 and above" and throw out support for the older versions of the OS. The number of advantages for developers-- especially low-margin niche Mac developers-- for moving to Leopard-only are too big to ignore. So unless you just want to stick to the big names like Microsoft and Adobe, you'll probably end up buying Leopard to stay compatible.
Sorry, I don't buy that most apple fans would wait for Leopard. Apple fans are going to buy leopard regardless of when it appears. They aren't going to hold off buying a new computer just for an OS.
well i'm an apple fan, with an october 2003 1.33 ghz power book g4, and i'm waiting to finally upgrade it, but i will wait for leopard and all the good things that will take advantage of it
Where is the mid-range head less mac?
It's with the Powerbook G5...
Where is the mid-range head less mac?
As worldwide desktop shipments continue to slow, notebooks are expected to represent more than half of all client PCs by 2011, according to an IDC report released Tuesday.
Desktop shipments grew an anemic 2 percent to 138.3 million in 2006, while portables--a category that doesn't include handhelds--jumped 26.3 percent to 82.4 million, according to the report. Meanwhile, in the U.S. retail sales of notebooks surpassed desktops in 2005.
As worldwide desktop shipments continue to slow, notebooks are expected to represent more than half of all client PCs by 2011, according to an IDC report released Tuesday.
Desktop shipments grew an anemic 2 percent to 138.3 million in 2006, while portables--a category that doesn't include handhelds--jumped 26.3 percent to 82.4 million, according to the report. Meanwhile, in the U.S. retail sales of notebooks surpassed desktops in 2005.
And yet desktops still accounted for 40 percent of Mac sales. Hardly a small enough segment to ignore, eh?
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But the most compelling reason you'll probably find is that applications are going to very rapidly switch to "10.5 and above" and throw out support for the older versions of the OS. .
Adobe for one has said they ae NOT doing that. They will still support Tiger, and have no special tie ins to Leopard.
And yet desktops still accounted for 40 percent of Mac sales. Hardly a small enough segment to ignore, eh?
Its not being ignored just because they aren't doing what you think they should do.
Adobe for one has said they are NOT doing that. They will still support Tiger, and have no special tie ins to Leopard.
Yes to Adobe still supporting Tiger, but they & Apple are doing things to ensure Adobe apps perform better under Leopard, which is great.
http://www.appleinsider.com/article.php?id=2589
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