Slight changes in Mac share to deliver big impact on earnings
In its second report on the subject in as many days, investment bank PiperJaffray estimates that Apple will earn an incremental 27 cents per share for every half-percent of additional market share registered by its Mac computer line in 2007.
Earlier in the week, the financial firm reported that the Mac maker posted a 2.6 percent global share for the three-month period ending March, up from 2.5 percent during the December quarter and from 2.1 percent during the year-ago quarter.
"Street estimates currently assume Mac market share of 2.7 percent for 2007," analyst Gene Munster wrote in a followup report on Tuesday. "In our estimation, an increase in Mac market share to 3.5 percent for the year would lead to upside to Street 2007 earnings-per-share of $0.44 or 12.3 percent."
The analyst's market share sensitivity analysis mapped out successive scenarios. For example, if the Mac were able to secure a 4.0 percent share for 2007, per-share earnings would increase by $0.71. That figure would balloon to $1.24 should the Mac account for just 5 percent of PCs sold globally throughout the year.
"Strong Mac sales in Apple's March quarter enabled the company to gain share despite stronger than normal PC sales," Munster told clients. "With Apple heading into three quarters of significant product releases (iPhone, Leopard, new iPod) and the education buying season, we expect year-over-year market share gains to continue."
The PiperJaffray analyst noted that in over two years, the only quarter in which Macs saw a year-over-year market share decline was the first quarter of 2006, during the heart of the Intel transition.
"Apple announced the transition to Intel processors in June 2005, but did not ship the first Intel Macs until late January of 2005," he wrote. "And only the final quarter of the period between the announcement and the products shipping, calendar Q1'06, saw a year-over-year decline in Mac market share."
Munster maintains an "Outperform" rating on shares of Apple with a price target of $140 per share.
Earlier in the week, the financial firm reported that the Mac maker posted a 2.6 percent global share for the three-month period ending March, up from 2.5 percent during the December quarter and from 2.1 percent during the year-ago quarter.
"Street estimates currently assume Mac market share of 2.7 percent for 2007," analyst Gene Munster wrote in a followup report on Tuesday. "In our estimation, an increase in Mac market share to 3.5 percent for the year would lead to upside to Street 2007 earnings-per-share of $0.44 or 12.3 percent."
The analyst's market share sensitivity analysis mapped out successive scenarios. For example, if the Mac were able to secure a 4.0 percent share for 2007, per-share earnings would increase by $0.71. That figure would balloon to $1.24 should the Mac account for just 5 percent of PCs sold globally throughout the year.
"Strong Mac sales in Apple's March quarter enabled the company to gain share despite stronger than normal PC sales," Munster told clients. "With Apple heading into three quarters of significant product releases (iPhone, Leopard, new iPod) and the education buying season, we expect year-over-year market share gains to continue."
The PiperJaffray analyst noted that in over two years, the only quarter in which Macs saw a year-over-year market share decline was the first quarter of 2006, during the heart of the Intel transition.
"Apple announced the transition to Intel processors in June 2005, but did not ship the first Intel Macs until late January of 2005," he wrote. "And only the final quarter of the period between the announcement and the products shipping, calendar Q1'06, saw a year-over-year decline in Mac market share."
Munster maintains an "Outperform" rating on shares of Apple with a price target of $140 per share.
Comments
Apple announced the transition to Intel processors in June 2005, but did not ship the first Intel Macs until late January of 2005
My son's next computer will be a MB+, his daughter's slated for a MB, his in-laws now have a new iMac, and I've been supporting some friends who have also made the switch.
My son's next computer will be a MB+, his daughter's slated for a MB, his in-laws now have a new iMac, and I've been supporting some friends who have also made the switch.
I'm guessing you are the goto guy when it come to Mac questions, concerns, and problems. I am, and I'm looking forward to Leopard's new iChat. The ability to easily control another screen through iChat with no setup will save me a lot of trouble and help train new users through direct interaction. Leopard can't come fast enough for me.
I'm guessing you are the goto guy when it come to Mac questions, concerns, and problems. I am, and I'm looking forward to Leopard's new iChat. The ability to easily control another screen through iChat with no setup will save me a lot of trouble and help train new users through direct interaction. Leopard can't come fast enough for me.
Agreed, a lot of people give iChat a lot of flack and rail on it pretty heavily. But as far as the video capabilities of it go, it's really second to none. I can't think of a single application that can do what iChat does with video. I love 3 way video conferencing with my family. It rocks!
I suppose for people outside the US, it's not quite as convenient since it primarily supports AIM. What's the big Instant Messenger outside the US? MSN?
Agreed, a lot of people give iChat a lot of flack and rail on it pretty heavily. But as far as the video capabilities of it go, it's really second to none. I can't think of a single application that can do what iChat does with video. I love 3 way video conferencing with my family. It rocks!
I suppose for people outside the US, it's not quite as convenient since it primarily supports AIM. What's the big Instant Messenger outside the US? MSN?
I know Brasilians seem to mainly use MSN Live Messenger for IM and most people I know in Europe seem to use Skype. I, unfortunately, use GoogleTalk, AIm, MSN and Y! to keep tabs with all my peeps. That makes Adium my client of choice for most conversations.
Agreed, a lot of people give iChat a lot of flack and rail on it pretty heavily. But as far as the video capabilities of it go, it's really second to none. I can't think of a single application that can do what iChat does with video. I love 3 way video conferencing with my family. It rocks!
I suppose for people outside the US, it's not quite as convenient since it primarily supports AIM. What's the big Instant Messenger outside the US? MSN?
I don't use iChat. My G5 iMacs don't have cameras and I'm not much to look at anyway. I DO use AOL IM and prefer the simpler interface.
As to my being a 'go to' guy, it all depends. I know what I DON'T know, and usually can fine the answers to any questions on my own.
I know Brasilians seem to mainly use MSN Live Messenger for IM and most people I know in Europe seem to use Skype. I, unfortunately, use GoogleTalk, AIm, MSN and Y! to keep tabs with all my peeps. That makes Adium my client of choice for most conversations.
I don't know any peeps that aren't on AIM, so iChat is just fine for me. I'd like to see them add GoogleTalk, and Yahoo if possible, doesn't GoogleTalk work through Jabber? And MSN if that's possible, I don't see why it wouldn't be, if Adium can do it. The only reason not to is because it's a Microsoft product.
And it wouldn't be possible to add Skype support would it? Since that's an IM in a league of its own.
Of course, in all probability, they won't add *any* additional support, so there's not much point in talking about it.
Those are the ones I use when I run Vista on my Macbook Pro. On Mac OS X it is primarily Live Messenger (aMessenger or aMSN or something) and Skype.
IMO, what's happening is that old PC users that whined "I can't do my work at home" now are freed. The Intel Mac has removed the excuse. Curiously, the OS base CAN actually decrease for OSX, because when you add one XP or Vista AND add one OSX at the same time, the Mac's share actually declines.
4/96 = .041667
5/97 = .051546
I shoulda done the math!!
IMO, what's happening is that old PC users that whined "I can't do my work at home" now are freed. The Intel Mac has removed the excuse. Curiously, the OS base CAN actually decrease for OSX, because when you add one XP or Vista AND add one OSX at the same time, the Mac's share actually declines.
My son's next computer will be a MB+, his daughter's slated for a MB, his in-laws now have a new iMac, and I've been supporting some friends who have also made the switch.
What if the person was a former windows user? (Windows is unchanged and Apple takes another piece... or vice versa)
Also Apple needs to get off it's laurels, and get even more compelling software titles, GAMES (and have the sequels, and upgrades released simultaneous with Windows) or this dual boot capability will be a big waste or even more damaging than good.
Another thing that needs to be remedied is Apple's SLOW AS HELL 3D acceleration! They need to kick Intel in its collective seat on this. OS X needs to be FASTER THAN WINDOWS matching them in speed would be utter stupidity (they are the king of the ring and OS X needs to prove itself).
ARE YOU LISTENING APPLE????????????????????!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
-- and as long as yu're willing to LEARN, I'm willling to poke you in the eye.
*covers eyes*