Bird flu
I had a very very bad night after an official medecine conference sponsorised by the health ministery last evening.
Basically, they told us, that in the next four years, the virus of the bird flu will mutate and will give a huge pandemia like the one we faced with the spanish flu who killed 50-100 millions people.
This pandemia will not be based upon the H5N1 variant, but the US governement already buyed plenty of H5N1 vaccinations.
Most occidental countries have stored plenty of treatement. For example france has a stock of 30 milions of treatements (300 millions pills) and stored one billion surgical mask.
That means the risk is serious
Currently the flu in asia kill 50% of the people contaminated : it's a 50 % lethality.
But we don't know the lethality, nor the symptoms of a new variant adapted to the human transmission (the current H5N1 is not enough adapted to human physiology)
Let's hope that it won't be as much lethal, or it will be a huge disaster.
The pendemia will last 12 weeks, and will stop all economic activities.
This seems very serious.
That's said, I have always thinked that the bird flu was serious but I am pissed after one of the guy who made the conference ( a MD not directly affiliated to the health minestery). I didn't appreciate much comments like : after the black pest, there was a century of wealth, or for regulating demographia, an epidemia is better than war, because it don't generate angryness
The bird flu is a serious threat, but I refuse the catastrophism of such people who predict big disaster. I hope that if the virus mutate, people will do whatever to confine the problem and solve it.
Sorry for the end, but I had a very bad night
Basically, they told us, that in the next four years, the virus of the bird flu will mutate and will give a huge pandemia like the one we faced with the spanish flu who killed 50-100 millions people.
This pandemia will not be based upon the H5N1 variant, but the US governement already buyed plenty of H5N1 vaccinations.
Most occidental countries have stored plenty of treatement. For example france has a stock of 30 milions of treatements (300 millions pills) and stored one billion surgical mask.
That means the risk is serious
Currently the flu in asia kill 50% of the people contaminated : it's a 50 % lethality.
But we don't know the lethality, nor the symptoms of a new variant adapted to the human transmission (the current H5N1 is not enough adapted to human physiology)
Let's hope that it won't be as much lethal, or it will be a huge disaster.
The pendemia will last 12 weeks, and will stop all economic activities.
This seems very serious.
That's said, I have always thinked that the bird flu was serious but I am pissed after one of the guy who made the conference ( a MD not directly affiliated to the health minestery). I didn't appreciate much comments like : after the black pest, there was a century of wealth, or for regulating demographia, an epidemia is better than war, because it don't generate angryness
The bird flu is a serious threat, but I refuse the catastrophism of such people who predict big disaster. I hope that if the virus mutate, people will do whatever to confine the problem and solve it.
Sorry for the end, but I had a very bad night
Comments
I had a very very bad night after an official medecine conference sponsorised by the health ministery last evening.
Basically, they told us, that in the next four years, the virus of the bird flu will mutate and will give a huge pandemia like the one we faced with the spanish flu who killed 50-100 millions people.
This pandemia will not be based upon the H5N1 variant, but the US governement already buyed plenty of H5N1 vaccinations.
Most occidental countries have stored plenty of treatement. For example france has a stock of 30 milions of treatements (300 millions pills) and stored one billion surgical mask.
That means the risk is serious
Currently the flu in asia kill 50% of the people contaminated : it's a 50 % lethality.
But we don't know the lethality, nor the symptoms of a new variant adapted to the human transmission (the current H5N1 is not enough adapted to human physiology)
Let's hope that it won't be as much lethal, or it will be a huge disaster.
The pendemia will last 12 weeks, and will stop all economic activities.
This seems very serious.
That's said, I have always thinked that the bird flu was serious but I am pissed after one of the guy who made the conference ( a MD not directly affiliated to the health minestery). I didn't appreciate much comments like : after the black pest, there was a century of wealth, or for regulating demographia, an epidemia is better than war, because it don't generate angryness
The bird flu is a serious threat, but I refuse the catastrophism of such people who predict big disaster. I hope that if the virus mutate, people will do whatever to confine the problem and solve it.
Sorry for the end, but I had a very bad night
Wow. This is bad. Americans better read up on the National Security Directive 51. This directive enables the administration to consolidate power in response to a "Catastrophic Emergency." Terrorism (nuke attack for example) is the main reason for this, but natural disasters and pandemics also fit the bill.
It could all be well and good. Because there would be chaos and the need for order. It allows the President to organize other branches of government to preserve the constitutional framework. It allows a "National Continuity Coordinator" to set succession orders and "emergency delegation of authority."
Let me see...and I might be interpreting this wrong, but it seems as if some midlevel bureaucratic hack has just been given the responsibility to reorganize our government in case of a catastrophic emergency.
Not the congress, not the courts, not the 25th Amendment.
Washington Post has more on this directive and Bush's altering of it.
Putting the take-over by the National Guard or Blackwater and the dictatorship scenarios aside...how prepared are we (The USA) for this pandemic?
I'm not really sure how much there is that we can do to fix this situation. It's not that I hold human life in contempt, but sometimes you have to sit back and realize that you can't control everything.
Personally, I'd still rather put money in to nuclear fusion research than pandemic abatement, if I had to pick between one or ther other.
powerdoc, not to insult your use of statistics but the fact is that we do not know the lethality of the virus since we really DON'T have good numbers on the number infected. We only have numbers on the people who are hospitalized.
You are right.
There is probabily a majoration here. Some people just stayed at home, curing themselves without any help. But we should not espect miracles here.
Spline model : absolutely, we can control everything, and we don't know everything. We don't know when there will be a major pandemia, and it's not a reason to seat back and wait for the end of the world.
Wow. This is bad. Americans better read up on the National Security Directive 51. This directive enables the administration to consolidate power in response to a "Catastrophic Emergency." Terrorism (nuke attack for example) is the main reason for this, but natural disasters and pandemics also fit the bill.
It could all be well and good. Because there would be chaos and the need for order. It allows the President to organize other branches of government to preserve the constitutional framework. It allows a "National Continuity Coordinator" to set succession orders and "emergency delegation of authority."
Let me see...and I might be interpreting this wrong, but it seems as if some midlevel bureaucratic hack has just been given the responsibility to reorganize our government in case of a catastrophic emergency.
Not the congress, not the courts, not the 25th Amendment.
Washington Post has more on this directive and Bush's altering of it.
Putting the take-over by the National Guard or Blackwater and the dictatorship scenarios aside...how prepared are we (The USA) for this pandemic?
You have Stage 4 Bush Derangement Syndrome. This topic is not about him. Not yet. I'm sure someone will blame bird flu on the guy before the end of the day.
"The TB bacillus, a bug that has been pesky but totally treatable since the advent of antibiotics in the 1940s, has suddenly morphed into something virtually incurable. And the disease is spread not with a complex exchange of bodily fluids, like AIDS or Ebola, but simply by laughing, talking, coughing or breathing.
Feeding off a vulnerable population and a health system staggering under the challenge of the AIDS epidemic, XDR may already have spread from South Africa, creating the danger of an uncontrollable epidemic on the continent.
After Dr. Moll got the call from the lab, he started keeping track of patients with XDR. In a matter of days, it killed 52 out of 53 people who had it, most within two weeks of arriving at the hospital.
Almost all of them were diagnosed posthumously, because the TB killed them before the lab ever got the diagnostics finished.
'We're losing ground again, facing another untreatable condition," said Dr. Moll, a veteran of the fight with AIDS. "It's put us in a hopeless situation.'"
Blowback from antibiotics...We need to educate the general public about the proper usage and dangers of widespread antibiotic usage. Or, invest in designer gas masks...