AmTech: iPhone to become fastest selling Apple product in history
While acknowledging that Apple Inc.'s iPhone is not without its assortment of initial flaws, analysts for American Technology Research say the multi-function handset is likely to become the fastest selling product in Apple's history, trumping even the iconic iPod nano.
"Our sources indicate that iPhone will likely become the fastest selling product in Apple's history and not to mention likely among the fastest (if not the fastest) in consumer electronics," analyst Shaw Wu informed clients in a research report published Monday. "We estimate sales of about 250,000 units in two days (up from our previous view of 50,000). The previous fastest seller was iPod nano, which sold about 1 million units in about 17 days meaning, about 59,000 units per day."
From a "big picture" standpoint, Wu said iPhone represents the start of a potential revolution in both PC and mobile electronics industries, given his view that the device is not just a classic old school product in that "it is landscape changing, being the first true convergence device that combines the best media player (widescreen video iPod), a near full-function web browser (Safari), e-mail/contacts/calendar, and a cellular phone."
Over the next 2-3 years, the analyst believes Apple has the potential to become a top selling "smart" phone vendor, which could leverage the mobile category into the mainstream just as the company did with the iPod and portable media players.
During Wu's tests, he was most impressed with the user interface (UI), Safari web browser (particularly on Wi-Fi), and widescreen video Pod. He advised clients that the handset "offers by far the best internet experience on a smart phone (where we find [it] most unusable) and the closest thing to surfing on a PC."
"For the UI, we find the 'pinch in' and 'pinch out' to zoom in and out particularly innovative and we also like the simplicity of a single 'home' button to press in case one gets lost," he wrote. "And finally, we agree with Apple that it is the best iPod ever, but we believe the relatively small 4 GB and 8 GB storage capacities and shorter mixed usage battery life will limit cannibalization of stand-alone iPods."
While the AmTech analyst remains upbeat on iPhone and its prospects, he admits the product isn't without flaws. In particular, he found the virtual keyboard somewhat difficult to use and likely to require some practice. Additionally, he said, the battery life could be better.
"In our extreme testing conditions (in which we were literally using the product non-stop given our excitement), we get battery life closer to 3 1/2 hours," Wu wrote. "We noticed web surfing uses up the most battery life. When we get to more normal use patterns, we envision charging the iPhone every 1-2 days, similar to other smart phones."
The analyst also found iPhone's $499 and $599 price points to be "somewhat steep" and suggests that Apple round out the handset line similar to what has been done with iPod and Macs -- with high-end, mid-range, and low-end offerings.
Wu was unsurprised with the mixed reactions thus far surrounding the iPhone's virtual keyboard. "As we have mentioned in previous notes, there is a learning curve," he explained. "We find the multi-touch interface radical and revolutionary, which reminds us of the original Apple mouse in 1984. Back then, the feedback was that it was a toy and why would anyone want to use a mouse and icons when text and a keyboard were better."
"We all know what happened to mice and icons since then," Wu added.
Given his analysis of current and future iPhone sales, the analyst on Monday raised his unit, average-selling-price, and margin assumptions regarding the device due to a favorable sales mix towards 8GB models. "We are now modeling 250,000 units for the June quarter (up from 50,000) meaning we estimate Apple sold 125,000 iPhones per day, the fastest selling product in Apple's history, beating the previous best of about 59,000 iPod nanos per day," he told clients.
For the 2007 calendar year, Wu is now modeling Apple to sell 2 million iPhones (up from 1 million) and for 2008, 7 million (up from 5 million). In addition, he believes the company's gross margin is benefiting from a favorable component environment and MacBook pro refresh.
For fiscal 2007, the analyst's model calls for $23.5 billion in revenue and $3.50 in earnings-per-share (from $23.3 billion and $3.45) and for fiscal 2008, $30.2 billion and $4.10 (from $30 billion and $4.00).
"For the June quarter, we are now modeling $5.3 billion in revenue and $0.73 in earnings-per-share (from $5.22 billion and $0.70)," he wrote.
Don't forget to check out AppleInsider's own in-depth iPhone review.
"Our sources indicate that iPhone will likely become the fastest selling product in Apple's history and not to mention likely among the fastest (if not the fastest) in consumer electronics," analyst Shaw Wu informed clients in a research report published Monday. "We estimate sales of about 250,000 units in two days (up from our previous view of 50,000). The previous fastest seller was iPod nano, which sold about 1 million units in about 17 days meaning, about 59,000 units per day."
From a "big picture" standpoint, Wu said iPhone represents the start of a potential revolution in both PC and mobile electronics industries, given his view that the device is not just a classic old school product in that "it is landscape changing, being the first true convergence device that combines the best media player (widescreen video iPod), a near full-function web browser (Safari), e-mail/contacts/calendar, and a cellular phone."
Over the next 2-3 years, the analyst believes Apple has the potential to become a top selling "smart" phone vendor, which could leverage the mobile category into the mainstream just as the company did with the iPod and portable media players.
During Wu's tests, he was most impressed with the user interface (UI), Safari web browser (particularly on Wi-Fi), and widescreen video Pod. He advised clients that the handset "offers by far the best internet experience on a smart phone (where we find [it] most unusable) and the closest thing to surfing on a PC."
"For the UI, we find the 'pinch in' and 'pinch out' to zoom in and out particularly innovative and we also like the simplicity of a single 'home' button to press in case one gets lost," he wrote. "And finally, we agree with Apple that it is the best iPod ever, but we believe the relatively small 4 GB and 8 GB storage capacities and shorter mixed usage battery life will limit cannibalization of stand-alone iPods."
While the AmTech analyst remains upbeat on iPhone and its prospects, he admits the product isn't without flaws. In particular, he found the virtual keyboard somewhat difficult to use and likely to require some practice. Additionally, he said, the battery life could be better.
"In our extreme testing conditions (in which we were literally using the product non-stop given our excitement), we get battery life closer to 3 1/2 hours," Wu wrote. "We noticed web surfing uses up the most battery life. When we get to more normal use patterns, we envision charging the iPhone every 1-2 days, similar to other smart phones."
The analyst also found iPhone's $499 and $599 price points to be "somewhat steep" and suggests that Apple round out the handset line similar to what has been done with iPod and Macs -- with high-end, mid-range, and low-end offerings.
Wu was unsurprised with the mixed reactions thus far surrounding the iPhone's virtual keyboard. "As we have mentioned in previous notes, there is a learning curve," he explained. "We find the multi-touch interface radical and revolutionary, which reminds us of the original Apple mouse in 1984. Back then, the feedback was that it was a toy and why would anyone want to use a mouse and icons when text and a keyboard were better."
"We all know what happened to mice and icons since then," Wu added.
Given his analysis of current and future iPhone sales, the analyst on Monday raised his unit, average-selling-price, and margin assumptions regarding the device due to a favorable sales mix towards 8GB models. "We are now modeling 250,000 units for the June quarter (up from 50,000) meaning we estimate Apple sold 125,000 iPhones per day, the fastest selling product in Apple's history, beating the previous best of about 59,000 iPod nanos per day," he told clients.
For the 2007 calendar year, Wu is now modeling Apple to sell 2 million iPhones (up from 1 million) and for 2008, 7 million (up from 5 million). In addition, he believes the company's gross margin is benefiting from a favorable component environment and MacBook pro refresh.
For fiscal 2007, the analyst's model calls for $23.5 billion in revenue and $3.50 in earnings-per-share (from $23.3 billion and $3.45) and for fiscal 2008, $30.2 billion and $4.10 (from $30 billion and $4.00).
"For the June quarter, we are now modeling $5.3 billion in revenue and $0.73 in earnings-per-share (from $5.22 billion and $0.70)," he wrote.
Don't forget to check out AppleInsider's own in-depth iPhone review.
Comments
(Good day to buy... down a dollar.)
(quote macnn)
Apple's sales of the iPhone have more than exceeded estimates, according to senior analyst Gene Munster of PiperJaffray. The research group's rough sales figure of about 500,000 units......... (end quote)
so who right?
(In my similarly subjective view) the virtual keyboard is simply brilliant -- indeed, far easier than anything I've seen or used on "smart"phones. As Mossberg pointed out, you just need to be a little patient with it, and go with the flow, that's all.
The "edit" magnifying glass feature, in particular, is sheer genius.
One missing feature (generic): I wish there was a way to select/cut/copy/paste text. Software update, Apple?
I used the iPhone keyboard, and it's nice, but to say it's better than any other smartphone's physical keyboard is just nonsense. A regular QWERTY keyboard is still king.
Are you challenging me to a type off?
I think it is better than a Qwerty keyboard. Aside from the obvious benefit of having a larger screen and a keyboard only when you need it, it is much easier to type with one hand. It is also adaptable and with some applications (maybe all after a software update) it can rotate with the phone to be used according to how you are using the phone.
I can certainly type as fast or faster than I could on my BB or old Treo. (I haven't timed it, but I will)
Are you challenging me to a type off?
I think it is better than a Qwerty keyboard. Aside from the obvious benefit of having a larger screen and a keyboard only when you need it, it is much easier to type with one hand. It is also adaptable and with some applications (maybe all after a software update) it can rotate with the phone to be used according to how you are using the phone.
I can certainly type as fast or faster than I could on my BB or old Treo. (I haven't timed it, but I will)
The guy who actually has the iPhone has had 5 people in his office all day wanting to play with his phone. Everyone leaves out saying, "I've got to get one of those."
I think I'll just have to be de-programmed from using my thumbs. I was amazed at how well I was able to type on the iPhone using one finger right from the start.
Wait until you try it with two thumbs/fingers then. I can fly on this keyboard, but I've never used a smartphone before so I don't have any habits to unlearn.
(Yes, I know various other phones cost more anyway.)
Clearly, people are not going to spend $499 on a PHONE (and media player, organizer, portable Internet, camera, maps, etc.)
No, they are not -- they are going to spend $599!
I used the iPhone keyboard, and it's nice, but to say it's better than any other smartphone's physical keyboard is just nonsense. A regular QWERTY keyboard is still king.
That may be up to the person. I can fly faster on the iPhone than my 8703e Blackberry. No contest.
http://www.macrumors.com/2007/07/02/...250000-525000/
Can't wait until we get the 3G version in Europe!
(quote macnn)
Apple's sales of the iPhone have more than exceeded estimates, according to senior analyst Gene Munster of PiperJaffray. The research group's rough sales figure of about 500,000 units......... (end quote)
so who right?
Who knows, sales estimates (over the weekend) are all over the map.
I think I'll just have to be de-programmed from using my thumbs. I was amazed at how well I was able to type on the iPhone using one finger right from the start.
The apple keyboard demo video claims that one should be proficient in two-thumb operation in a short time. I can't verify that though.
(quote macnn)
Apple's sales of the iPhone have more than exceeded estimates, according to senior analyst Gene Munster of PiperJaffray. The research group's rough sales figure of about 500,000 units......... (end quote)
When writing out quotes you can use a special little cahracter called a "quotation mark" for quoting text. On a US keyboard it's just left of the return but you have to hold down shift while depressing it or you'll register an apostrophe. I just thought you should know.
Looks like Steve's 'Third Leg' is performing well!
A half a million are comstantly touching Steve's third leg. I hope they washed their hands first.
Who knows, sales estimates (over the weekend) are all over the map.
Even if we go with the Wu low ball estimates why is the stock suffering today. That is at least a $150,000,000 in gross revenue this weekend alone. I hate the the stock market ever since the internet made it easy to trade. I can't predict a damn thing anymore!
Buy on the rumor, sell on the news... you know the drill.
Except all this is all still rumor..... with completely wild, wide-ranging estimates (250K - 700K!?).
The "news" will be when Apple and ATT announce what the actual first week of sales were. We will see a flurry of earning estimate revisions from these folks...
Job's interview actually convinced me somewhat on their choice to go with EDGE for the time being. Nonetheless, giving North American customers a choice between EDGE and HSDPA would make a certain amount of sense until AT&T's 3G network gets more widespread.
Ditto for any Canadian iPhone release; seeing as HSDPA is only available in the Greater Toronto area, Canucks will probably be better served with EDGE.
I predict that their press release will come out when they hit the 1 million mark. I predict that this will happen before this Friday at 6pm.
I concur. Hopefully we'll also get info on the number of new AT&T subscribers.