Study: iPhone already nibbling away at Motorola's market lead
Although it's been on the shelf for just three months, the impact of iPhone is clearly being felt by rival phone manufacturers, according to a new study which claims that Apple's cell phone market share is already on the rise at the expense of Motorola.
Cell Phone Manufacturers
Completed earlier this month, ChangeWave's latest consumer cell phone survey of 3,654 of its alliance members focused primarily on key market share changes among the major U.S. cell phone manufacturers and service providers.
The study found that while Motorola still manages to maintain the top spot in terms of current market share (30 percent), it has fallen 1-point since the firm's July survey to its lowest level in more than a year. For its part, Samsung (15 percent) remains in second, unchanged from previously.
Customer Satisfaction
"One of the most striking findings for Apple is the iPhoneÂ?s outstanding customer satisfaction rating," ChangeWave reported. "An impressive 82 percent of iPhone owners reported being Very Satisfied with their purchase, up 5-points since our previous survey in July -- by far the highest rating of any manufacturer."
The only other company with a rating above 50 percent was Research-in-Motion (RIM). And at the other end of the spectrum, Motorola was next to last among cellular manufacturers when it came to customer satisfaction, with Sony/Ericsson at rock bottom.
Future Share
"Most importantly, itÂ?s when we asked respondents about their planned future cell phone purchases that the iPhone marketplace transformation becomes fully apparent," ChangeWave said.
Again, an significant 16 percent of respondents who plan to purchase a cell phone in the next 6 months say theyÂ?ll buy an iPhone, placing Apple at the top among all manufacturers. Moreover, while the number of European and Canadian respondents wasnÂ?t large enough to draw final conclusions, the iPhone appears set for a stellar debut when it launches in the coming months in Europe and Canada, the firm added.
Meanwhile, Motorola planned purchases (15 percent; up 1-pt) -- after a long and horrendous slide -- appear to be bottoming for the first time in a year. Indeed, ChangeWave surveys throughout 2007 have shown Motorola to be the manufacturer hurt most by the iPhone.
"Tough times still lie ahead for the company," the firm wrote in its report.
The chart below illustrates MotorolaÂ?s dramatic rise and fall over the last 2+ years in terms of planned purchases.Â* Tellingly, the decline first became apparent in ChangeWave's January 2007 survey conducted immediately after Apple's original iPhone announcement.
At the same time, Nokia (13 percent) has jumped 3-points since the July survey and, conversely, LG (4 percent) and Palm (2 percent) have each fallen 2-points.
Cellular Service Providers
Concurrently, the tug-of-war between Verizon and AT&T continues in the cellular service providers market, ChangeWave said.
In terms of actual market share, both Verizon (30 percent) and AT&T (29 percent) have each gained 1-point since the firm's previous survey in July.Â* For AT&T, this is the third survey in a row that theyÂ?ve racked up a 1-pt gain.
Mired far behind in third place, Sprint/Nextel (12 percent) showed no signs of a turnaround from its downward slide.
After the initial wave of excitement for the iPhone, future demand for AT&T -- while still historically high -- is returning to more normal levels, according to the report.
Among respondents who plan to switch carriers over the next six months, a total of 23 percent said theyÂ?ll go with AT&T -- a full 7-points lower than in the July survey.
Verizon, on the other hand, appears to have halted the downward slide in planned purchases that began immediately after Apple's iPhone announcement back in January. All told, they have increased their share of planned purchases 2-points to 21 percent, and significantly narrowed their gap with chief competitor AT&T, according to the latest survey.
HereÂ?s another look at the roller-coaster slugfest in planned purchases between Verizon and AT&T over the last 2+ years:
Importantly, ChangeWave said, Verizon customers continue to give their company the highest satisfaction rankings in the industry -- even as lower satisfaction ratings continue to be a problem for AT&T. The firm also note that previous surveys have identified the speed of AT&TÂ?s network as the top complaint among iPhone users.
Going forward, Sprint barely registers in planned purchases, garnering a minuscule 3 percent.
Fiber Optic Services Â? Verizon vs. AT&T
In somewhat related findings by the study, a total of 34 percent of respondents said theyÂ?re likely to sign up for VerizonÂ?s FiOS internet service if it becomes available in their area -- including 12 percent who say they are Very Likely. Another 39 percent said theyÂ?re likely to sign up for Verizon FiOS TV.
Regarding AT&TÂ?s U-verse Internet and TV service, one-in-three respondents (32 percent) said theyÂ?re likely to sign up if it becomes available in their area -- including 8 percent who said they are Very Likely.
Triple-Play Penetration Â? Current Market
Meanwhile, Comcast (24 percent) remains the industry leader among respondents who currently pay for a Â?triple-playÂ? service -- but it has lost 3-points since ChangeWave's previous survey on the subject in April. Both AT&T (16 percent; up 3-pts) and Verizon (15 percent; up 6-pts) have experienced big gains during this time period.
AT&T (28 percent; up 6-pts) is also looking strong among those who plan to sign up for a Â?triple-playÂ? subscription in the next 90 days. Verizon (26 percent; down 3-pts) and Comcast (23 percent; down 2-pts) have fallen to second and third respectively.
"We note that Time Warner (4 percent; down 5-pts) remains on a steep decline in terms of planned triple play purchases," ChangeWave said.
Cell Phone Manufacturers
Completed earlier this month, ChangeWave's latest consumer cell phone survey of 3,654 of its alliance members focused primarily on key market share changes among the major U.S. cell phone manufacturers and service providers.
The study found that while Motorola still manages to maintain the top spot in terms of current market share (30 percent), it has fallen 1-point since the firm's July survey to its lowest level in more than a year. For its part, Samsung (15 percent) remains in second, unchanged from previously.
Customer Satisfaction
"One of the most striking findings for Apple is the iPhoneÂ?s outstanding customer satisfaction rating," ChangeWave reported. "An impressive 82 percent of iPhone owners reported being Very Satisfied with their purchase, up 5-points since our previous survey in July -- by far the highest rating of any manufacturer."
The only other company with a rating above 50 percent was Research-in-Motion (RIM). And at the other end of the spectrum, Motorola was next to last among cellular manufacturers when it came to customer satisfaction, with Sony/Ericsson at rock bottom.
Future Share
"Most importantly, itÂ?s when we asked respondents about their planned future cell phone purchases that the iPhone marketplace transformation becomes fully apparent," ChangeWave said.
Again, an significant 16 percent of respondents who plan to purchase a cell phone in the next 6 months say theyÂ?ll buy an iPhone, placing Apple at the top among all manufacturers. Moreover, while the number of European and Canadian respondents wasnÂ?t large enough to draw final conclusions, the iPhone appears set for a stellar debut when it launches in the coming months in Europe and Canada, the firm added.
Meanwhile, Motorola planned purchases (15 percent; up 1-pt) -- after a long and horrendous slide -- appear to be bottoming for the first time in a year. Indeed, ChangeWave surveys throughout 2007 have shown Motorola to be the manufacturer hurt most by the iPhone.
"Tough times still lie ahead for the company," the firm wrote in its report.
The chart below illustrates MotorolaÂ?s dramatic rise and fall over the last 2+ years in terms of planned purchases.Â* Tellingly, the decline first became apparent in ChangeWave's January 2007 survey conducted immediately after Apple's original iPhone announcement.
At the same time, Nokia (13 percent) has jumped 3-points since the July survey and, conversely, LG (4 percent) and Palm (2 percent) have each fallen 2-points.
Cellular Service Providers
Concurrently, the tug-of-war between Verizon and AT&T continues in the cellular service providers market, ChangeWave said.
In terms of actual market share, both Verizon (30 percent) and AT&T (29 percent) have each gained 1-point since the firm's previous survey in July.Â* For AT&T, this is the third survey in a row that theyÂ?ve racked up a 1-pt gain.
Mired far behind in third place, Sprint/Nextel (12 percent) showed no signs of a turnaround from its downward slide.
After the initial wave of excitement for the iPhone, future demand for AT&T -- while still historically high -- is returning to more normal levels, according to the report.
Among respondents who plan to switch carriers over the next six months, a total of 23 percent said theyÂ?ll go with AT&T -- a full 7-points lower than in the July survey.
Verizon, on the other hand, appears to have halted the downward slide in planned purchases that began immediately after Apple's iPhone announcement back in January. All told, they have increased their share of planned purchases 2-points to 21 percent, and significantly narrowed their gap with chief competitor AT&T, according to the latest survey.
HereÂ?s another look at the roller-coaster slugfest in planned purchases between Verizon and AT&T over the last 2+ years:
Importantly, ChangeWave said, Verizon customers continue to give their company the highest satisfaction rankings in the industry -- even as lower satisfaction ratings continue to be a problem for AT&T. The firm also note that previous surveys have identified the speed of AT&TÂ?s network as the top complaint among iPhone users.
Going forward, Sprint barely registers in planned purchases, garnering a minuscule 3 percent.
Fiber Optic Services Â? Verizon vs. AT&T
In somewhat related findings by the study, a total of 34 percent of respondents said theyÂ?re likely to sign up for VerizonÂ?s FiOS internet service if it becomes available in their area -- including 12 percent who say they are Very Likely. Another 39 percent said theyÂ?re likely to sign up for Verizon FiOS TV.
Regarding AT&TÂ?s U-verse Internet and TV service, one-in-three respondents (32 percent) said theyÂ?re likely to sign up if it becomes available in their area -- including 8 percent who said they are Very Likely.
Triple-Play Penetration Â? Current Market
Meanwhile, Comcast (24 percent) remains the industry leader among respondents who currently pay for a Â?triple-playÂ? service -- but it has lost 3-points since ChangeWave's previous survey on the subject in April. Both AT&T (16 percent; up 3-pts) and Verizon (15 percent; up 6-pts) have experienced big gains during this time period.
AT&T (28 percent; up 6-pts) is also looking strong among those who plan to sign up for a Â?triple-playÂ? subscription in the next 90 days. Verizon (26 percent; down 3-pts) and Comcast (23 percent; down 2-pts) have fallen to second and third respectively.
"We note that Time Warner (4 percent; down 5-pts) remains on a steep decline in terms of planned triple play purchases," ChangeWave said.
Comments
I think the headline is a bit much. I think that Motorola was fading away anyway, they haven't had anything fresh lately anyway, their high profile stuff was just rehashes. I think it's hard to prove causality when it is may very well be just a coincidence.
You're the second person to mention this, so I tweaked it a bit. But it is still inline with what ChangeWave claims their study reveals. We're still attributing the notion to the study.
Thanks a bunch for your feedback,
K
Here's a message to Sony Ericsson, if you actually spent more than 2 months developing a phone and then 'dumping' into the market then maybe they might be a bit more 'usable'.
Like computers, I think we all do better with phones when we can buy the hardware and software from the same vendor. As long as the platform is open to third party apps!
You're the second person to mention this, so I tweaked it a bit. But it is still inline with what ChangeWave claims their study reveals. We're still attributing the notion to the study.
Thanks a bunch for your feedback,
Fair enough, I suppose. But the last indication is that iPhone is like a single digit portion of the US phone market, like 1%, so I think it's implausible to say that iPhone is responsible for any more than half a point of Moto's 15-point loss. The iPhone is a mosquito bite in comparison to what the other phone makers are taking off Moto's soon-to-be carcass unless Moto pulls another rabbit out of the hat.
Fair enough, I suppose. But the last indication is that iPhone is like a single digit portion of the US phone market, like 1%, so I think it's implausible to say that iPhone is responsible for Moto's 15-point loss. The iPhone is a mosquito bite.
It attributes a 1 percent gain for iPhone to a 1 percent decline to Mot...
Best,
K
Interesting how companies that have been in the mobile phone biz for years or even a decade are getting crushed by a company that had zero prior experience.
Like the iPod that changed the Music biz the iPhone is going to change the Phone Biz it is just a matter of time.
As far as the "iPhone already nibbling away" after being "on the shelf for just three months", I hate to say it but most of the hype (except for more international introductions) is already out the door. Apple will likely continue to gain some marketshare, but if, as some of these stories seem to imply, you're looking for these other manufacturers Motorola, Nokia, etc. to suddenly implode because of Apple, that moment has just about set (baring some radically new device introduction from Apple).
Interesting how companies that have been in the mobile phone biz for years or even a decade are getting crushed by a company that had zero prior experience.
Apple isn't crushing anybody... Motorola sells in the ballpark of 200 million handsets worldwide each year, Apple is just trying to sell 10 million in 2008. Put it in perspective.
What is true is that Motorola is in deep trouble, and most of it is self-inflicted. They have truly lousy quality control, especially in software, and their build quality is often suspect as well. Motorola's name has become synonymous with 'garbage' among a lot of cellular sales reps, who will actively steer customers away from Moto products, simply 'cuz they don't want to have to hear said customer yell at them when they have to bring their malfunctioning Moto handset in for a repair or exchange a couple of weeks later. And you really can't blame 'em.
Moto should have faced its Judgement Day a long time ago, and either changed its ways or died/got bought out, but they got lucky back in '04 with the RAZR, a huge hit that masked many deep-seated problems with the company.
But the RAZR franchise has been milked nearly dry by now, and their new RAZR2 is not going to be anything like the game-changer the original RAZR was, simply 'cuz it brings very little that's new or uncopied to the table. It'll sell decently, but not enough to rescue Moto from its internal issues.
The iPhone helps highlight Moto's weaknesses, but it did not cause them.
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It attributes a 1 percent gain for iPhone to a 1 percent decline to Mot...
If that's what they are saying, I think that's a suspect conclusion on their part. MOTO had a third of the market by volume a year ago, or a sixth now, and Apple only mostly away sales from MOTO and almost none from anyone else?
You have to stay sharp in business.
"An impressive 82 percent of iPhone owners reported being Very Satisfied with their purchase, up 5-points since our previous survey in July -- by far the highest rating of any manufacturer."
Can we save this for those who think there are a significant number of iPhone users who are angry that the iPhone cannot do this or that.
Apple isn't crushing anybody... Motorola sells in the ballpark of 200 million handsets worldwide each year, Apple is just trying to sell 10 million in 2008. Put it in perspective.
I terms of user satisfaction is what I meant. The context of my reply was clear before the article got updated to include other statistics. The original AI article showed a graph of user satisfaction where Apple was dominating with 80+% and the next up was RIM 'berries at 50% without any other graphs.
In that context, Apple is crushing *everyone*!
Sony/Ericsson used to make good phones. I had the S/E T630 for 2 years, love it. However, I picked up an unlocked Motorola RAZR V3 and returned it right way, the UI was horrible and the whole experience was pretty bad as well.
Can we save this for those who think there are a significant number of iPhone users who are angry that the iPhone cannot do this or that.
What about ppl who would buy the iPhone, but don't because it cannot do this or that (meaning, 3G, GPS, MMS, voice-dialing, etc.)? Those folks wouldn't be counted in the stats.
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What about ppl who would buy the iPhone, but don't because it cannot do this or that (meaning, 3G, GPS, MMS, voice-dialing, etc.)? Those folks wouldn't be counted in the stats.
That would explain why they aren't considered "customers" and why their opinion doesn't count. People that can't justify canceling their present cellular plans, people that can't afford the device, etc., they're all perfectly valid people but their opinion about the device is meaningless, sort of how my opinion about Mossberg shotguns or a 1990 "Vino-thèque" - I don't own a gun, I drink beer, not wine, and so, I am not in the demographic those products are positioned to attract.
For those products, I don't count. If I were to go off on the shot pattern sucking for the shotgun or how it was too expensive, if I were to describe the bouquet of the wine as "intolerable" and "pretensious" it would all be irrelevant. People that ARE in that demographic would rightfully view my criticism of those products as the behavior of a boor.
Same as the people who would buy the iPhone except for this or that. They don't count. The iPhone isn't for everybody, it was never designed to be for everybody, and Apple has already stated that they will consider the product a success if they can garner 1% of the market with the iPhone product line.