2.5m AT&T iPhone users; Piper on WWDC Macs; 3G stock panic

Posted:
in iPhone edited January 2014
AT&T now counts more than 2.5 million iPhone users among its ranks. Also, analysts at Piper Jaffray give a 60 percent chance of Macs at WWDC; the New York Times has developed a new version of its Times Reader for the Mac; and a plunge in Apple stock value on Thursday was triggered by fears of an iPhone delay.



AT&T touts 2.5 million iPhone subscribers



AT&T can now lay claim to more than 2.5 million active iPhone subscribers, the carrier's chief financial officer Rick Lindner revealed Thursday.



Historically shy on details, the company also notes that the typical iPhone user on its network spends about $100 per month for service. This compares closely to fees spent for the BlackBerry Curve, he says, but nets AT&T more up front: where an iPhone sells for as much as $499, the Curve can be had for as little as $99 in the right conditions, Lindner says.



He notes, however, that pricing for an expected next-generation iPhone hasn't been set.



Piper: 60 percent shot at MacBook redesigns for WWDC



The 3G iPhone isn't the only likely star for WWDC, according to an investors' note from Piper Jaffray.



Senior analyst Gene Munster estimates that redesigned MacBooks, revealed first by AppleInsider, stand a 60 percent chance of an introduction at the developer conference in June. Those odds increase to 80 percent for a launch before the end of the summer, he adds.



The age of the systems' designs, combined with the looming education season, are both cited as support for the prediction.



In addition to Mac forecasts, Munster also echoes the most recent rumors and calls for a 3G iPhone announced at WWDC with availability by mid-June.



New York Times offers Times Reader for Mac



Readers interested in browsing the New York Times' back catalog from their Macs while offline now have access to a beta client of Times Reader for the platform.



The beta is free to try but requires the installation of Microsoft's cross-platform Silverlight plug-in; the final version is expected to require a paid Times subscription.



Brief Apple stock dive triggered by 3G delay rumor



If Apple's shareholders were wondering why their stock value plunged on Thursday, they may be surprised at the nature of the drop, according to a claim by Barron's.



Trader sources allege that the frantic sell-off was due to "rumors of a rumor" of a delay in the release of a 3G iPhone; shareholders were reacting to delays for a device that isn't confirmed yet, the report indicates.



Apple stocks promptly bounced back on Friday.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 188
    samabsamab Posts: 1,953member
    It took 4.75 months for AT&T to get 500K iphone activations.



    Extrapolate the numbers --- since Verizon launched the LG Voyager in mid Nov 2007, Verizon (which gets to keep all its Voyager customers becuase it's a CDMA phone) has outsold AT&T's iphone activation number.
  • Reply 2 of 188
    jensonbjensonb Posts: 532member
    Any hint of a Mac mini update at WWDC? I really want it to be then, since I'm buying one later that month. I don't want it to come in August like last year - I'm buying it in late June after my exams asa kind of celebration of freedom
  • Reply 3 of 188
    foo2foo2 Posts: 1,077member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


    Trader sources allege that the frantic sell-off was due to "rumors of a rumor" of a delay in the release of a 3G iPhone; shareholders were reacting to delays for a device that isn't confirmed yet, the report indicates.





    Scott Moritz strikes again? Or some of his old buddies like Jim "the Gamer" Kramer that are still at thestreet[Walkers].com?
  • Reply 4 of 188
    tenobelltenobell Posts: 7,014member
    Quote:

    Extrapolate the numbers --- since Verizon launched the LG Voyager in mid Nov 2007, Verizon (which gets to keep all its Voyager customers becuase it's a CDMA phone) has outsold AT&T's iphone activation number.



    You keep making this comparison which does not compare. Verizon does not sell the Voyager for $499, I doubt Verizon averages $100 per contract from it.
  • Reply 5 of 188
    samabsamab Posts: 1,953member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post


    You keep making this comparison which does not compare. Verizon does not sell the Voyager for $499, Verizon does not average $100 per contract from it.



    It does compare --- because AT&T's CFO is hinting at iphone subsidies in the future.



    http://techland.blogs.fortune.cnn.co...phone-subsidy/



    I can also say that even those iphone numbers were caused by the $200 price drop within 100 days of the launch.



    Secondly --- Verizon Wireless' ARPU is higher than AT&T Wireless. More subscribers at Verizon Wireless are taking the $99 unlimited voice minute plans. VZW can get more money from LG Voyager users having the Get It Now deck so they can buy Guitar Hero game for $12 or get a daily VZ Navigator usage for $3.



    That's the whole point, isn't it? Verizon charges $200 for a "iphone killer" and AT&T is hinting to drop the price of the iphone v2 to similar price levels.
  • Reply 6 of 188
    robin huberrobin huber Posts: 3,945member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


    New York Times offers Times Reader for Mac



    I need a special piece of software blessed by Microsoft to read text offline on my Mac? Can't I just copy and paste from the NYT web page, or read it from my Safari's cache?
  • Reply 7 of 188
    tenobelltenobell Posts: 7,014member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by samab View Post


    It does compare --- because AT&T's CFO is hinting at iphone subsidies in the future.



    That's in the future. Your example is from the past when the prices are different.





    Quote:

    I can also say that even those iphone numbers were caused by the $200 price drop within 100 days of the launch.



    Yes increasing sales was the whole point of the $200 price drop.



    Quote:

    Secondly --- Verizon Wireless' ARPU is higher than AT&T Wireless. More subscribers at Verizon Wireless are taking the $99 unlimited voice minute plans. VZW can get more money from LG Voyager users having the Get It Now deck so they can buy Guitar Hero game for $12 or get a daily VZ Navigator usage for $3.



    Essentially the crux of your whole argument is Verizon having a slightly higher ARPU than AT&T. This really has nothing directly to do with individual phones. The iPhone could have a higher ARPU than the Voyager.



    Verizon doesn't offer unlimited data for $99. I'm not sure what Guitar Hero has to do with any of this.



    Quote:

    That's the whole point, isn't it? Verizon charges $200 for a "iphone killer" and AT&T is hinting to drop the price of the iphone v2 to similar price levels.



    I'm not sure what this has to do with the fact that the iPhone is doing well for AT&T. Prices always go down over time.
  • Reply 8 of 188
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by samab View Post


    It took 4.75 months for AT&T to get 500K iphone activations.



    Extrapolate the numbers --- since Verizon launched the LG Voyager in mid Nov 2007, Verizon (which gets to keep all its Voyager customers becuase it's a CDMA phone) has outsold AT&T's iphone activation number.



    Extrapolate what numbers? If you post the sales numbers of Verizon's LG Voyager I will gladly extrapolate them.





    Quote:
    Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post


    Verizon doesn't offer unlimited data for $99.



    Nor for $59, which is what I pay.
  • Reply 9 of 188
    irelandireland Posts: 17,798member
    edit.
  • Reply 10 of 188
    samabsamab Posts: 1,953member
    1.1 million Voyagers from mid Nov 2007 to April 11 2008.



    http://english.etnews.co.kr/news/det...d=200804110002



    AT&T activated 900K in christmas quarter --- so 1/2 of that is 450K. AT&T activated 500K from Jan 1 2008 to third week of May 2008 --- so that's about 350-375K.
  • Reply 11 of 188
    samabsamab Posts: 1,953member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post


    That's in the future. Your example is from the past when the prices are different.



    Essentially the crux of your whole argument is Verizon having a slightly higher ARPU than AT&T. This really has nothing directly to do with individual phones. The iPhone could have a higher ARPU than the Voyager.



    I'm not sure what this has to do with the fact that the iPhone is doing well for AT&T. Prices always go down over time.



    How much higher is the ARPU --- when you take out the revenue share??? AT&T said the ARPU for the iphone is in the mid 90's but if the revenue share is $18 (Munster) --- then you are back to mid $70's.



    How is iphone doing well for AT&T --- when they refuse to give activation numbers now. Extrapolate the numbers and AT&T activated only 310-325K iphones in the first quarter.
  • Reply 12 of 188
    boogabooga Posts: 1,082member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by samab View Post


    1.1 million Voyagers from mid Nov 2007 to April 11 2008.



    http://english.etnews.co.kr/news/det...d=200804110002



    AT&T activated 900K in christmas quarter --- so 1/2 of that is 450K. AT&T activated 500K from Jan 1 2008 to third week of May 2008 --- so that's about 350-375K.



    So your assumption is that sales of the iPhone were the same in October as in December? And that there were no pre-orders available for the Voyager? It seems more reasonable to assume 2Q was even and take a percentage, but I'd say it's more fair to include all, or almost all, 900K iPhones from Q4 of last year. In any case, my guess is the iPhone would come out slightly ahead. Considering the price difference, that seems to show a huge preference for the iPhone.



    And that doesn't include any unlocked iPhones anywhere else, of course.
  • Reply 13 of 188
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


    Senior analyst Gene Munster estimates that redesigned MacBooks stand a ...80 percent for a launch before the end of the summer



    By the end of the summer Montevina will have been out for several months, the old MB design one of longest in Apple's history, and the odds are only 80%? Does he think most resources have been moved to the iPhone?
  • Reply 14 of 188
    samabsamab Posts: 1,953member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Booga View Post


    So your assumption is that sales of the iPhone were the same in October as in December? And that there were no pre-orders available for the Voyager? It seems more reasonable to assume 2Q was even and take a percentage, but I'd say it's more fair to include all, or almost all, 900K iPhones from Q4 of last year. In any case, my guess is the iPhone would come out slightly ahead. Considering the price difference, that seems to show a huge preference for the iPhone.



    And that doesn't include any unlocked iPhones anywhere else, of course.



    Just look at the math.



    It would take 725K iphones in the christmas quarter and 375K iphones in the first quarter --- just to break even with the LG Voyager.



    725K out of 900K iphones is 80% allotment for 1/2 a quarter.
  • Reply 15 of 188
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by samab View Post


    1.1 million Voyagers from mid Nov 2007 to April 11 2008.



    http://english.etnews.co.kr/news/det...d=200804110002



    AT&T activated 900K in christmas quarter --- so 1/2 of that is 450K. AT&T activated 500K from Jan 1 2008 to third week of May 2008 --- so that's about 350-375K.



    So method of taking sales from Verizon from the before the start of Black Friday, the start of shopping and than then taking the mean average of sales from AT&T when you know perfectly well that the sales after Thanksgiving up through the end of the year are well above of that prior to Thanksgiving is poor logic.



    Now, from a marketing POV it's acceptable to take two points because you are disclosing even though it's misleading. There is a reason that Verizon chose not to use the entire holiday quarter in their data.



    I am not saying that AT&T activations did beat Verizon's for the associated cmartphones but the the numbers you offer lead to flawed math. I assume you know why Black Friday is so aptly named. If you can supply equal dates then we'll have something to compare.
  • Reply 16 of 188
    samabsamab Posts: 1,953member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    So method of taking sales from Verizon from the before the start of Black Friday, the start of shopping and than then taking the mean average of sales from AT&T when you know perfectly well that the sales after Thanksgiving up through the end of the year are well above of that prior to Thanksgiving is poor logic.



    Now, from a marketing POV it's acceptable to take two points because you are disclosing even though it's misleading. There is a reason that Verizon chose not to use the entire holiday quarter in their data.



    I am not saying that AT&T activations did beat Verizon's for the associated cmartphones but the the numbers you offer lead to flawed math. I assume you know why Black Friday is so aptly named. If you can supply equal dates then we'll have something to compare.



    Not poor logic --- that's just the way it is because the Voyager was launched at that time. I am just using all the numbers that are available to us.



    For all we know --- the massive $200 price drop for the iphone in Sept makes it more likely that the black friday effect was less than other consumer electronics (i.e. sales in October for the iphone were "artificially" higher because of the Sept price drop).
  • Reply 17 of 188
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by samab View Post


    Not poor logic --- that's just the way it is because the Voyager was launched at that time. I am just using all the numbers that are available to us.



    For all we know --- the massive $200 price drop for the iphone in Sept makes it more likely that the black friday effect was less than other consumer electronics (i.e. sales in October for the iphone were "artificially" higher because of the Sept price drop).



    But is illogical because you know that fromm Thanksgiving to the end of the year sales are higher, but you don't take that into consideration at all. You are fudging the math to make your argument. This is fine for marketing, the way MS used very specific dates for Zune sales to show that it was the number #2 PMP for that time frame (unable to locate source).



    If you want to speculate that you think the LG Voyager activations were higher, that is fine, but to be a "mathamagician" only hurts your argument.
  • Reply 18 of 188
    samabsamab Posts: 1,953member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    But is illogical because you know that Thanksgiving to teh end of the year sales are higher, but you don't take that into consideration at all. You are fudging the math to make your argument. This is fine for marketing, the way MS used very specific dates for Zune sales to show that it was the number #2 PMP for that time frame (unable to locate source).



    If you want to speculate that you think the LG Voyager activations were higher, that is fine, but to be a "mathamagician" only hurts your argument.



    As I said earlier --- even if you account for the black friday effect --- it would take 80% of the Q4 amount to just break even with the Voyager.



    So the first 1/2 of the christmas quarter accounts for 20% of the 900K iphones and the second 1/2 of the christmas quarter accounts for 80% of the 900K iphones --- that's break even with the Voyager.



    That's a massive black friday effect just to break even with the Voyager.
  • Reply 19 of 188
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,510member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Foo2 View Post


    Scott Moritz strikes again? Or some of his old buddies like Jim "the Gamer" Kramer that are still at thestreet[Walkers].com?



    Nah. I was talking to my broker today. He confirms that the street was awash in this rumor. He said it was just a general feeling, but that it was gone today.



    This is why I've said that the rise in price due to a new phone was already in the stock price. If the stock keeps going back up, it may even drop after the announcement. The same thing for the new Macbooks. If people run the price up because of that, it will drop if the new machines aren't announced.



    By the way, most of this isn't rumors.



    A rumor is when someone says that they have some direct knowledge that something is going to happen, or is happening..



    Most of what we read is a logical extrapolation of what is known into a prediction of what will happen. It's very different.
  • Reply 20 of 188
    tenobelltenobell Posts: 7,014member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by samab View Post


    How much higher is the ARPU --- when you take out the revenue share??? AT&T said the ARPU for the iphone is in the mid 90's but if the revenue share is $18 (Munster) --- then you are back to mid $70's.



    Just in this article AT&T said the average is $100 with the cost of the unsubsidized phone.



    Quote:

    How is iphone doing well for AT&T --- when they refuse to give activation numbers now. Extrapolate the numbers and AT&T activated only 310-325K iphones in the first quarter.



    After we've gone around many time about this you still give no context as to why selling 325K is a low number for a phone that sells for $499 and averages $100 in service fees. What other phone is selling better at these prices? The LG Voyager doesn't count because the price is not comparable.
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