Apple averaging 95 iPhone 3G sales per store, per day
After spending 25 hours observing sales of iPhones at Apple's national retail chain, investment bank Piper Jaffray now estimates the company is on track to announce a more than fourfold increase in sales of the handset during its fiscal fourth quarter.
"Our 25 hours of counting iPhone sales in Apple retail stores throughout the country lead us to believe Apple is on pace to beat our previous estimate of 4.1 million iPhones for the September quarter," analyst Gene Munster advised clients in a report Wednesday.
He now estimates that the electronics maker will sell at least 4.47 million iPhones in the quarter, compared to 1.12 million during the same three-month period last year. More specifically, he estimates that Apple sells an average of 95 iPhone 3Gs per day at each of its 188 U.S. retail stores, up from 21 phones per day during a similar check in August of 2007.
"We believe Apple will sell 1.78 million units at its U.S. retail stores, and 0.90 million phones at U.S. AT&T locations," Munster wrote. "Our estimate assumes each of the 2,200 AT&T stores will sell an average of 5 phones per day from the July 11th launch through the end of the September quarter."
The analyst had noted in a previous report that he believes the U.S. sales will account for only 53 percent of iPhones sold worldwide, leaving international sales of the handset to account for the remaining 1.79 million units that make up his fourth quarter estimate.
While demand for the iPhone 3G remains undoubtedly high, Munster's model factors in the likelihood that demand will decrease slightly in the weeks ahead. His firm's 25 hours of checks spanned two weeks, and he noted sales volume decreased about 10 percent during the second week.
Taking this into account, the analyst said his fourth quarter estimate assumes Apple retail stores will average 31 iPhone sales per day for the remaining 51 days in the quarter.
"We believe that our revision may be conservative and that Apple will meet our estimates," he wrote. "The August 22nd launch in additional countries should provide another catalyst to sales."
Munster's model assumed an average of 12 hours of sales per day based on 8 percent of the stores being high-traffic "flagship" locations and remaining 92 percent regular-sized outlets.
"Our 25 hours of counting iPhone sales in Apple retail stores throughout the country lead us to believe Apple is on pace to beat our previous estimate of 4.1 million iPhones for the September quarter," analyst Gene Munster advised clients in a report Wednesday.
He now estimates that the electronics maker will sell at least 4.47 million iPhones in the quarter, compared to 1.12 million during the same three-month period last year. More specifically, he estimates that Apple sells an average of 95 iPhone 3Gs per day at each of its 188 U.S. retail stores, up from 21 phones per day during a similar check in August of 2007.
"We believe Apple will sell 1.78 million units at its U.S. retail stores, and 0.90 million phones at U.S. AT&T locations," Munster wrote. "Our estimate assumes each of the 2,200 AT&T stores will sell an average of 5 phones per day from the July 11th launch through the end of the September quarter."
The analyst had noted in a previous report that he believes the U.S. sales will account for only 53 percent of iPhones sold worldwide, leaving international sales of the handset to account for the remaining 1.79 million units that make up his fourth quarter estimate.
While demand for the iPhone 3G remains undoubtedly high, Munster's model factors in the likelihood that demand will decrease slightly in the weeks ahead. His firm's 25 hours of checks spanned two weeks, and he noted sales volume decreased about 10 percent during the second week.
Taking this into account, the analyst said his fourth quarter estimate assumes Apple retail stores will average 31 iPhone sales per day for the remaining 51 days in the quarter.
"We believe that our revision may be conservative and that Apple will meet our estimates," he wrote. "The August 22nd launch in additional countries should provide another catalyst to sales."
Munster's model assumed an average of 12 hours of sales per day based on 8 percent of the stores being high-traffic "flagship" locations and remaining 92 percent regular-sized outlets.
Comments
Apple store employees were also observed to be taking side bets on how long the "homeless-looking guy out in the mall" was going to make it.
Does this take into account the dozen or two more countries in which the iPhone 3G is being released a week from now?
That question is answered specifically in the article from the analyst's own mouth.
And if they had more than 95 phones per day in stock their average would be higher.
It does seem VERY suspect that there are still 2-3 hour waits for this device. There's one Apple store near LA that claims to sell out "every day" and yet every night they're 'all green' on the iPhone availability chart.
Anyone know what's really going on behind those big glass walls?
It does seem VERY suspect that there are still 2-3 hour waits for this device. There's one Apple store near LA that claims to sell out "every day" and yet every night they're 'all green' on the iPhone availability chart.
Anyone know what's really going on behind those big glass walls?
I asked this question last Friday to one of the salespeople in the store.
The problem isn't the number of phones available, she said. The problem was in the ordering and setting up the accounts, then the wait for the phones to be activated. She told me that even in a large store, such as the one we were in, here in NYC, down in the meatpacking district, they only had so many connections out that could register these phones, and only so many people to service the phone customers. I was told that people went for special training on the account setup and information. They had ten people in that store who did that, but that they weren't all on duty at once. I was also told that Apple was training more people all the time.
Hopefully, they will catch up soon.
My wife is going on line outside the store at 6 am tomorrow, so that when the store opens at eight, she can get in quickly, get the stub for the phones, and go to work (she volunteered to do that). At 5:30 I'll meet her there, and we will pick up the phones, and get the account worked out. This is for three phones. We were told, no problem. We were also told that the slowest days were Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, and not to even bother Friday and Saturday.
16GB black and I'm rather impressed.
nothing to add but my excitement really
That question is answered specifically in the article from the analyst's own mouth.
Kind of. The analyst does say, "The August 22nd launch in additional countries should provide another catalyst to sales." That doesn't really answer my question.
Kind of. The analyst does say, "The August 22nd launch in additional countries should provide another catalyst to sales." That doesn't really answer my question.
Yes, it does. It says, "No."
Unless you are wondering if the average is based specifically on whether the average is based on the total number of Apple stores that exist. That would only be possible if the study was conducted at every single Apple store. Instead, it would be an average of the Apple stores they have studied, thus they wouldn't be including Apple stores which aren't selling iPhones.
I asked this question last Friday to one of the salespeople in the store.
The problem isn't the number of phones available, she said. The problem was in the ordering and setting up the accounts, then the wait for the phones to be activated. She told me that even in a large store, such as the one we were in, here in NYC, down in the meatpacking district, they only had so many connections out that could register these phones, and only so many people to service the phone customers...
Her story would not apply to here in DC. Where days would pass without any phones being available, and some days only the white ones would be available. One time I remember waiting in a line of only 8 people, but they didn't have a ninth iPhone for me. So I ended-up pre-ordering one from an ATT store which took 8 days to arrive, and that was the 16gigs.
When checking online we have over 5 stores within a driving distance and sometimes only one or two would have phones available, and they would be available to the early bird shopper only. Their recommendation for me was to show-up at around 6:00am!! The mall opens at around 9:30am!
Maybe the inventory is better now, but the shortages I experienced were only two to three weeks ago.
I asked this question last Friday to one of the salespeople in the store.
The problem isn't the number of phones available, she said. The problem was in the ordering and setting up the accounts, then the wait for the phones to be activated. She told me that even in a large store, such as the one we were in, here in NYC, down in the meatpacking district, they only had so many connections out that could register these phones, and only so many people to service the phone customers. I was told that people went for special training on the account setup and information. They had ten people in that store who did that, but that they weren't all on duty at once. I was also told that Apple was training more people all the time.
Hopefully, they will catch up soon.
My wife is going on line outside the store at 6 am tomorrow, so that when the store opens at eight, she can get in quickly, get the stub for the phones, and go to work (she volunteered to do that). At 5:30 I'll meet her there, and we will pick up the phones, and get the account worked out. This is for three phones. We were told, no problem. We were also told that the slowest days were Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, and not to even bother Friday and Saturday.
God- if that's your experience at Apple, one can only wonder how long a Best Buy transaction will take? Two a day?
How nice of Apple to do all of AT&T's work.
How nice of Apple to do all of AT&T's work.
Ummm, I think it's actually the opposite. AT&T would like to sell more, they make more money when they sell them. Apple isn't supplying their stores with the phones. I bought mine at an Apple store, went to AT&T for a new SIM the same day (had trouble with porting my number at the Apple store.) The AT&T guy was pissed that his store had to order them and tell people to wait 7-10 days, while Apple stores were getting them in every night.
Also, I am on hold right now with AT&T and the lady just told me that Apple has loosened up a bit, but still have a very tight leash on what AT&T is allowed to help with on the tech support side of things. I am currently having trouble with voicemail, and she might have to direct me to Apple support for it. It is Apple whipping AT&T, not the other way around.
I just got a new iPhone because my radio was bad in the first one, which was a black 16gb week 29 build. This one is week 31, I hope it was just a one time problem. I read last night on the discussions boards on Apple's site that the problem is pretty big. Quite a few people in quite a few places have had the same problem of large numbers of dropped calls and terrible 3g reception. But that discussion is probably not relevant for this thread.
Suffice it to say Apple has tight control over what the carriers say and do with the iPhone.
give me a break.
Even doing one hour in front of 25 stores doesn't come close to measuring this.
this is me:
this is the guy who did this survey:
Ummm, I think it's actually the opposite. AT&T would like to sell more, they make more money when they sell them...
They do make money but not from the sale of the iPhone, instead it's from the contract. The iPhone still costs $500 however this time the customer pays Apple $200 and ATT pays Apple $300 for every iPhone sold in the US. This is why ATT will not allow any iPhone to be sold without a signed contract first, they do not want to lose. This wasn't the case with the original iPhone, you could buy it no differently than buying a mouse, no immediate contracts.