Apple's Best Buy play makes 12m iPhones "very conservative"
An agreement for Best Buy to start selling iPhones will help make already strong estimates for Apple's device sales seem all too modest, according to an investment note from Lehman Brothers.
Analyst Ben Reitzes determines that the large increase in the number of American distribution points that comes with the Best Buy initiative, combined with more than one million iPhones sold on the launch weekend alone, should result in Apple blowing past earlier predictions for the rest of calendar 2008.
"We believe our estimate of 3.8 million iPhones sold in Apple?s [September quarter] is very conservative," Reitzes says. "Furthermore, we believe that initial demand overseas is very strong and will get much stronger; we estimate at least 8.3 million iPhones could be sold in [the December quarter]," equating to 12.1 million of the new devices trading hands during the summer and fall combined.
The analyst notes that Apple has enjoyed the results of its rapidly expanding Best Buy presence with Macs and may be poised to expand the "halo" effect with iPhones on sale at the third-party chain, as customers buying iPhones come back to buy other Apple products.
The timing of Apple's retail expansion is also seen as fortunate given a much healthier iPhone supply starting from late July, though the researchers at Lehman don't anticipate the Cupertino, Calif.-based company's supply levels to keep up with demand before September. International demand may exacerbate the problem with over 20 countries set to offer the device on August 22nd.
These factors could also be enough to skew estimates for future years, Reitzes adds. Lehman now believes its prediction of 24.2 million iPhones sold in Apple's fiscal 2009 is just as conservative as for the next few months and could be similarly pessimistic through fiscal 2010.
Not every analyst shares this point of view. Although Reitzes believes iPhone sales at Best Buy and elsewhere should have a significant effect on Apple's cash flow, UBS Investment Research analyst Maynard Um notes that each Best Buy store would have to sell about 200 iPhones to move Apple's earnings per share by one cent. That's performance unlikely to occur so early into the retail expansion, he argues.
Even if true, the Lehman expert views the move as a "tipping point" that will get iPhones into more places and boost sales, and that it won't be alone: in addition to redesigned MacBook lines which match information provided to AppleInsider, he also expects multiple MacBook Air variants, new iPods, and the possibility of an ultraportable media and messaging device appearing in the next six months.
Analyst Ben Reitzes determines that the large increase in the number of American distribution points that comes with the Best Buy initiative, combined with more than one million iPhones sold on the launch weekend alone, should result in Apple blowing past earlier predictions for the rest of calendar 2008.
"We believe our estimate of 3.8 million iPhones sold in Apple?s [September quarter] is very conservative," Reitzes says. "Furthermore, we believe that initial demand overseas is very strong and will get much stronger; we estimate at least 8.3 million iPhones could be sold in [the December quarter]," equating to 12.1 million of the new devices trading hands during the summer and fall combined.
The analyst notes that Apple has enjoyed the results of its rapidly expanding Best Buy presence with Macs and may be poised to expand the "halo" effect with iPhones on sale at the third-party chain, as customers buying iPhones come back to buy other Apple products.
The timing of Apple's retail expansion is also seen as fortunate given a much healthier iPhone supply starting from late July, though the researchers at Lehman don't anticipate the Cupertino, Calif.-based company's supply levels to keep up with demand before September. International demand may exacerbate the problem with over 20 countries set to offer the device on August 22nd.
These factors could also be enough to skew estimates for future years, Reitzes adds. Lehman now believes its prediction of 24.2 million iPhones sold in Apple's fiscal 2009 is just as conservative as for the next few months and could be similarly pessimistic through fiscal 2010.
Not every analyst shares this point of view. Although Reitzes believes iPhone sales at Best Buy and elsewhere should have a significant effect on Apple's cash flow, UBS Investment Research analyst Maynard Um notes that each Best Buy store would have to sell about 200 iPhones to move Apple's earnings per share by one cent. That's performance unlikely to occur so early into the retail expansion, he argues.
Even if true, the Lehman expert views the move as a "tipping point" that will get iPhones into more places and boost sales, and that it won't be alone: in addition to redesigned MacBook lines which match information provided to AppleInsider, he also expects multiple MacBook Air variants, new iPods, and the possibility of an ultraportable media and messaging device appearing in the next six months.
Comments
worthless.
any monkey could have that prediciton. analists.
worthless.
I'd say he's a tad brighter than this douchebag.....
http://www.thestreet.com/video/10432....html#10432613
Multiple Air variants would be nice, like one with a smaller foot print. I miss my old 12".
Amen! Preach on Brother Merdhead!
I'd say he's a tad brighter than this douchebag.....
http://www.thestreet.com/video/10432....html#10432613
He said "I'd buy Dell before I'd buy Apple."
The big factor these toolbags keep willfully overlooking is the "tech" aspect of Apple. And that's just fine, because when the "experts" figure out that Apple is now more "Sony" than it is "Intel", there will be a run up in its stock like you can't imagine. Every day is a good day to buy Apple.
Anybody who says differently, even based on their financials, is effing wrong. Any Monkey can see that.
Multiple Air variants would be nice, like one with a smaller foot print. I miss my old 12".
Amen! Preach on Brother Merdhead!
I'd like to have one too, but it's only viable in the 4:3 ratio, which Apple won't go back to. Have you seen the widescreen notebooks that are 11" or 12"? They don't have enough screen height to be useful for reading documents. The 13" MB already as a shorter screen height than the 12" PB.
[CENTER]Diagonal...Ratio...Width...Height
PB 12"......4:3.....9.6"....7.2"
MB 13".....16:10...11.0"....6.9"[/CENTER]
I'd say he's a tad brighter than this douchebag.....
http://www.thestreet.com/video/10432....html#10432613
Um, the guy's point isn't that Apple isn't doing well. His point is that everybody knows this already so the news is priced into the stock. It's a fair point.
My personal opinion is that uncertainty about Job's health situation is dragging down on the stock. I didn't see much impact from the NYT article where Jobs talked to the journalist and said he was cancer free. Investors will believe it when they see it.
If Jobs shows up at the September event looking just slightly better than at WMDC, I think AAPL could go straight to $250 or higher, assuming the rest of the market isn't tanking at that time. If he doesn't show, or if he looks worse, then at best it will stay where it is, but more likely it will sink to below $150.
Apple must be aware of this, so the fact that they are planning an event at all is a positive sign.
After having used my new iPhone for the last couple of weeks, I can't really see the need for a larger form-factor device.
Well, you are you. Now, I'll admit I don't have an iPhone yet, but spending two weeks without a real computer is simply unthinkable to me. There are a ton of things you can't do on an iPhone-sized device.
Gimme a break and post something decent for a change on here already.
Well, you are you. Now, I'll admit I don't have an iPhone yet, but spending two weeks without a real computer is simply unthinkable to me. There are a ton of things you can't do on an iPhone-sized device.
It's not that he doesn't have a point, it's the arrogance with which he make HIS point....
and the stock is up $ 17 bucks since his "don't do it" call.
It seems that (notwithstanding the forum I am posting in) this has become a given.
It's an issue of "How can we ensure people can buy an iPhone?"
Oh, the fate of being popular!
Well, you are you. Now, I'll admit I don't have an iPhone yet, but spending two weeks without a real computer is simply unthinkable to me. There are a ton of things you can't do on an iPhone-sized device.
There is quite a bit that can be done with a device that small, but there is this matter of efficiency. That inefficiency doesn't matter so much for those that aren't heavy computer users, but it does make a difference to those that are. There are a lot of compromises needed just to make a device that small.
Good god Apple. You've got the eyes of the world and the world in your arms. blow off the ATT deal, sell the friggin' fones for $400 or $500 unlocked and just let the dough roll in... the locking customers into two years is just so baaaaad. I'd gladly pay $500 for a phone unlocked and choose my own friggin' carrier .... you got distribution and with T-Mobile, ATT and soon Verizon going GSM freedom should be the game... not prison.
Can you explain how you think would benefit Apple? BTW, there are no UTMS networks for T-Mobile. Sprint or Verizon.
I'd like to have one too, but it's only viable in the 4:3 ratio, which Apple won't go back to. Have you seen the widescreen notebooks that are 11" or 12"? They don't have enough screen height to be useful for reading documents. The 13" MB already as a shorter screen height than the 12" PB.
[CENTER]Diagonal...Ratio...Width...Height
PB 12"......4:3.....9.6"....7.2"
MB 13".....16:10...11.0"....6.9"[/CENTER]
That's why I'm waiting on an Aluminum MB to replace my 3.5 year old 12" PB
On a side note - I love the fact that iPhony (read: Instinct) is going to be side by side with the iPhone. How on God's green earth are you going to convince someone to buy the Instinct if they aren't already locked in with Sprint and AT&T has reception in the area??? Well, other than the Apple Haters of course but man - between the App Store and the WiFi and the soon to be released turn by turn navigation the instinct really provides no advantages at all...
That's why I'm waiting on an Aluminum MB to replace my 3.5 year old 12" PB
On a side note - I love the fact that iPhony (read: Instinct) is going to be side by side with the iPhone. How on God's green earth are you going to convince someone to buy the Instinct if they aren't already locked in with Sprint and AT&T has reception in the area??? Well, other than the Apple Haters of course but man - between the App Store and the WiFi and the soon to be released turn by turn navigation the instinct really provides no advantages at all...
TV Shows and a 3G battery life that slightly bests the iPhone's battery life for calls because CDMA2000 can use CDMA for calls while maintaining a CDMA connection for data and UMTS can't. But being on a Sprint network is the biggest draw and I've already recommended it to people that are on Sprint and being offered deals on plans and new handsets (they require a carrier lock in, of course). So far, it's the best "iPhone killer" )read: competitor) currently on the market I've seen, but that won't last long.
TV Shows and a 3G battery life that slightly bests the iPhone's battery life for calls because CDMA2000 can use CDMA for calls while maintaining a CDMA connection for data and UMTS can't. But being on a Sprint network is the biggest draw and I've already recommended it to people that are on Sprint and being offered deals on plans and new handsets (they require a carrier lock in, of course). So far, it's the best "iPhone killer" )read: competitor) currently on the market I've seen, but that won't last long.
I'd still tend to think that if you're not locked into a service provider and your salesman isn't slanted in either direction you'd end up with the iPhone. Of course the huge elephant in the room is how Anti- (or Pro) Apple are some of the employees at Best Buy? Especially the ones that don't have the built-in Apple Stores. There was a long standing belief amongst the people on here and on MR that the people at Best Buy would talk just about anybody out of a Mac and didn't know enough about Macs to even provide good information. I'm sure that's changed at all the stores that have those dedicated Apple sections but what about the hundreds that don't have the devoted Apple sections? Combine that with the fact that it's going to be sold by the cell phone employee and not the computer employee.
But still - in the end - I think this will be a huge catalyst in furthering iPhone growth because a lot of people go into Best Buy for a number of reasons and might just stop by to check out "what all the buzz is about" but I don't know of anyone that actually goes out of their way to go to an AT&T store just to check out a phone... At least that's my impression.