Symbian reports slow growth in the wake of the iPhone 3G launch
Earlier today, Symbian reported second quarter financial reports that outlined a significant slowdown in both growth and profits that signal an end to its rapid acceleration as the leader in smartphones worldwide and suggest tough times ahead for the iPhone competitor.
Symbian licenses the software that currently powers 7% of the world's phones but a leading 55% of all smartphones. Symbian is particularly strong in the home markets of its primary hardware partners Nokia and Sony Ericsson in Europe, and NTT DoCoMo in Japan.
However, Symbian has a weak and shrinking presence in the US, having slid from owning 25% of the North American market in 2004 to less than 5% today. Symbian's worldwide share has also tumbled recently, from a dominating 72.8% share in late 2006 to today's 55%, as reported in Symbian's online market data.
According to market research firm Strategy Analytics, phone sales in the first half of 2008 were up 15% and smartphones are up by 35% over last year. But Symbian's second quarter sales are only up 5% over 2007, despite the company's focus on the high growth smartphone market.
Symbian prepares for hurricane iPhone
Symbian's slow growth is a big change from last fall, when the company was seeing 50% annual growth, according to a report by Reuters. One factor in the cooling sales of Symbian phones has been the high profile anticipation of the iPhone 3G.
In the second quarter, Symbian sold 19.6 million phones, compared to Apple's scant 717,000 units. iPhone sales were up 265% over the previous year-ago quarter. Of course, Apple only sold 270,000 iPhones in the year-ago quarter because it had only been on sale for parts of three days.
At the same time, this year's second fiscal quarterly iPhone sales, cited for competitive reasons on Symbian's website, were down dramatically because of extremely constrained supplies of the original model in preparation for the iPhone 3G launch. Apple subsequently sold more iPhone 3Gs on its launch weekend than it sold in the second quarter of both years put together.
Nokia sets Symbian free
In its first full quarter, Apple claimed 27% of the US market, a level of success that sent Symbian partner Sony Ericsson scrambling to find a suitable competitor and ultimately into the arms of Microsoft's Windows Mobile with the planned (and still overdue) XPERA X1 phone.
Nokia bought up Linux smartphone vendor Trolltech, and has since offered $387 million to buy out its Symbian partners and turn the company into a foundation in order to release the Symbian OS as an open source project similar to Google's Android.
The bottom appears to be falling out of the smartphone OS software business, as Symbian's revenues fell 14% in the second quarter and Reuters noting that "average royalties per phone fell to $3.40 from $4.30."
Worldwide dominance cracked open
Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster has forecast sales of 4.47 million iPhone 3Gs for the current quarter, a figure he cited as conservative for not taking in to account the expanded launch of additional countries that began August 22.
That figure would put Apple's year over year growth at 400% over its first full quarter of sales, a particularly notable figure considering that its launch last year was regarded as spectacular at the time.
The difference this year is that Apple is selling the iPhone 3G on Symbian's turf worldwide. Other American companies have had little luck in breaking into Symbian's home field advantage, with both Windows Mobile and RIM's BlackBerry together accounting for nearly none of the Japanese market and less than 10% of the market in Europe, China, and other regions after years of trying (above), according to Canalys.
With sales of 4 million units, Apple would take a 12% share of the world all by itself in its first full quarter of worldwide sales.
Symbian licenses the software that currently powers 7% of the world's phones but a leading 55% of all smartphones. Symbian is particularly strong in the home markets of its primary hardware partners Nokia and Sony Ericsson in Europe, and NTT DoCoMo in Japan.
However, Symbian has a weak and shrinking presence in the US, having slid from owning 25% of the North American market in 2004 to less than 5% today. Symbian's worldwide share has also tumbled recently, from a dominating 72.8% share in late 2006 to today's 55%, as reported in Symbian's online market data.
According to market research firm Strategy Analytics, phone sales in the first half of 2008 were up 15% and smartphones are up by 35% over last year. But Symbian's second quarter sales are only up 5% over 2007, despite the company's focus on the high growth smartphone market.
Symbian prepares for hurricane iPhone
Symbian's slow growth is a big change from last fall, when the company was seeing 50% annual growth, according to a report by Reuters. One factor in the cooling sales of Symbian phones has been the high profile anticipation of the iPhone 3G.
In the second quarter, Symbian sold 19.6 million phones, compared to Apple's scant 717,000 units. iPhone sales were up 265% over the previous year-ago quarter. Of course, Apple only sold 270,000 iPhones in the year-ago quarter because it had only been on sale for parts of three days.
At the same time, this year's second fiscal quarterly iPhone sales, cited for competitive reasons on Symbian's website, were down dramatically because of extremely constrained supplies of the original model in preparation for the iPhone 3G launch. Apple subsequently sold more iPhone 3Gs on its launch weekend than it sold in the second quarter of both years put together.
Nokia sets Symbian free
In its first full quarter, Apple claimed 27% of the US market, a level of success that sent Symbian partner Sony Ericsson scrambling to find a suitable competitor and ultimately into the arms of Microsoft's Windows Mobile with the planned (and still overdue) XPERA X1 phone.
Nokia bought up Linux smartphone vendor Trolltech, and has since offered $387 million to buy out its Symbian partners and turn the company into a foundation in order to release the Symbian OS as an open source project similar to Google's Android.
The bottom appears to be falling out of the smartphone OS software business, as Symbian's revenues fell 14% in the second quarter and Reuters noting that "average royalties per phone fell to $3.40 from $4.30."
Worldwide dominance cracked open
Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster has forecast sales of 4.47 million iPhone 3Gs for the current quarter, a figure he cited as conservative for not taking in to account the expanded launch of additional countries that began August 22.
That figure would put Apple's year over year growth at 400% over its first full quarter of sales, a particularly notable figure considering that its launch last year was regarded as spectacular at the time.
The difference this year is that Apple is selling the iPhone 3G on Symbian's turf worldwide. Other American companies have had little luck in breaking into Symbian's home field advantage, with both Windows Mobile and RIM's BlackBerry together accounting for nearly none of the Japanese market and less than 10% of the market in Europe, China, and other regions after years of trying (above), according to Canalys.
With sales of 4 million units, Apple would take a 12% share of the world all by itself in its first full quarter of worldwide sales.
Comments
The problem for Symbian is that Nokia drive their sales. If Nokia don't release any new Symbian device then Symbian's bottom line takes a hit. That's what we saw in Q1 and that's what we're seeing again in Q2.
Nokia have released a few new Symbian devices in Q2 but the real big hitters - the N96 and Tube - are scheduled for the second half of the year.
And that fifth came out of Symbian's premium buyers, not their mass market bulk sales of simple phones.
Regardless of what Nokia does, smartphones are selling at around 35 million per quarter. Apple still grabbed more than 10% of that market and saw 400% growth over its launch. No way to blow that off, and Symbian is taking things pretty seriously / running scared.
If the Zune had grabbed 27% of the US market from Apple in its first quarter, and 12% of the world wide market in the first year, and sent the iPod down from from 75% to 55% market share, I doubt anyone could say "pfft, the new iPods are coming out later."
An "order of magnitude" is 10x. So if you're comparing iPhone sales before it went world wide during the period when there were no iPhones to buy, then yes. But if you compare iPhone 3G sales, when it actually was, you know, being sold, then no, Symbian does not sell 40 million phones per quarter. Apple appears to have grabbed a fifth of Symbian's worldwide smartphone market in its first attempt.
Er, second attempt or did the previous iPhone 2G not count as an attempt?
And it's a little rich quoting Symbian's actuals against an analyst's predictions.
Also, what is the point in showing graphs of market share and sales that stop at Q3 2007 in an article about Q2 2008 sales/share? Isn't that a little silly and undermining your argument?
The second graph showing percentages of each territory is also as much use as an iPhone camera in a dark room. It doesn't show the relative sizes of each market for smartphones giving the impression that each is the same size in total.
And that fifth came out of Symbian's premium buyers, not their mass market bulk sales of simple phones.
That's just nonsense. Apple's share of the worldwide market was almost entirely from US sales where Symbian phones aren't widely available so how can Apple's market share be at Symbian's expense?
Regardless of what Nokia does, smartphones are selling at around 35 million per quarter. Apple still grabbed more than 10% of that market and saw 400% growth over its launch. No way to blow that off, and Symbian is taking things pretty seriously / running scared.
I'm pretty sure they aren't. Nokia sold a squidillion phones last quarter. Selling more smartphones than anyone else by quite some margin isn't going to get them worried either.
They've plenty of time and their platform runs on much lower end hardware. If I were Nokia I'd be more worried about Google and Linux than Apple's boutique phones.
If the Zune had grabbed 27% of the US market from Apple in its first quarter, and 12% of the world wide market in the first year, and sent the iPod down from from 75% to 55% market share, I doubt anyone could say "pfft, the new iPods are coming out later."
Who the fuck cares about market share? I'll have well made, feature rich, bug free phone thanks. When Apple ships one, I'll buy one. That's why I use Macs, not their market share.
If the Zune had grabbed 27% of the US market from Apple in its first quarter, and 12% of the world wide market in the first year, and sent the iPod down from from 75% to 55% market share, I doubt anyone could say "pfft, the new iPods are coming out later."
Your math is wrong.
If Symbian's market share dropped 20%, that's 7 million phones that have 'gone missing'. With the iPhone projected at 4.5 million sales this quarter, even if every single iPhone buyer is a lost Symbian customer, there's still an unaccounted 2.5 million units. Considering that the virtually Symbian-free US is still Apple's strongest market and virtually iPhone-free China is Symbian's biggest market, it's clear that most of Symbian sales are being lost for reasons other than the iPhone.
If the trend continue, it is certain that the iPhone will easily surpass RIM's smartphone users within a year, and many of the other manufacturers as well.
Who the fuck cares about market share? I'll have well made, feature rich, bug free phone thanks. When Apple ships one, I'll buy one. That's why I use Macs, not their market share.
Shame you're missing out on the fun based on your idea of what's wrong with iPhones.
Ours (version one) with very heavy usage daily haven't exhibited any bugs we are aware of, and are feature rich beyond anything out there (Blackberry users often ask for demos and drool). My wife as a successful realtor cannot imagine life without hers. It is literally a Mac in her pocket. Her Mobile Me is syncing with her PC and Mac just fine for some reason (I say this as I read all the time it doesn't work).
Shame your missing out on the fun based on your idea of what's wrong with iPhones.
Ours (version one) with very heavy usage daily haven't exhibited any bugs we are aware of, and are feature rich beyond anything out there (Blackberry users often ask for demos and drool). My wife as a successful realtor cannot imagine life without hers. It is literally a Mac in her pocket. Her Mobile Me is syncing with her PC and Mac just fine for some reason (I say this as I read all the time it doesn't work).
This is also my experience with the 3G. I understand 2-3% of folks had connection problems that have been largely resolved. I even had an app crash on me once or twice, but just like a Mac the app goes away and the phone stays up. Rumors of 3G bugginess are greatly exaggerated, probably because it makes a good story that gets hits.
This is also my experience with the 3G. I understand 2-3% of folks had connection problems that have been largely resolved. I even had an app crash on me once or twice, but just like a Mac the app goes away and the phone stays up. Rumors of 3G bugginess are greatly exaggerated, probably because it makes a good story that gets hits.
So true. The Bugs are real, for sure, but their impact is minimal. Its really amazing that this is an Apple fan site as it seems to have been taken over to large part by those that don't see the BIG picture and only harp on the negative without putting it in context.
Are there people for which the Bugs are critical - of course and they shouldn't buy the iPhone, but as sales show, those are in the minority for now. Apple should, and probably will eventually, fix the Bugs and add additional 'missing' features but the real market feedback - sales - show they've made the right decisions so far.
So many phones have been sold so far in 2008? The link below says 8M measured by the IEMI numbers.
How dumb to these guys have to be to NOT understand the difference between phones manufactured and phones sold?
So many phones have been sold so far in 2008? The link below says 8M measured by the IEMI numbers.
It looks like the link is in reference to a blog linked to the article above. Where did the original statement come from?
It looks like the link is in reference to a blog linked to the article above. Where did the original statement come from?
Solipsism blew it when he said 8M sold as measured by IEMI numbers.
That isn't what IEMI numbers measure, and it's also not what the website said.
The website says how many have been manufactured in 2008 and THEY blew it.
Apple says how many 2G phones they SOLD in 2008, that's not how many are manufactured in 2008.
The IEMI number tells us how many 3G have been manufactured and you can pretty much deduce they have been done so in 2008.
So you can tell what Apple sold in 2G phones during 2008, and what the IEMI numbers say 3G were manufactured in 2008.
There is no place to know what was the total manufactured of both 2g and 3g in 2008.
And there is no place to know what was sold from going crazy logging IEMI numbers.
No offense, but let's all take a breath and be accurate.
You can't tell how many phones are sold from the IEMI numbers.
Not a bad game with one country selling and limited sales.
Doing so is less and less reliable with more an more outlets around the world holding stock, or stock in shipment from one place to another.
I wish people could tighten up the reporting a little.
We're always going to see some jumping to conclusions, when you start from statements that are not accurate, you end up jumping even further off the path when jumping to conclusions.
Solipsism blew it when he said 8M sold as measured by IEMI numbers.
My bad. I did mean to ask an open ended question as to how many iPhone could have been sold so far, but not imply that was the number. I've corrected my post.
How dumb to these guys have to be to NOT understand the difference between phones manufactured and phones sold?
Clearly. Every Apple and ATT store I know about has LOADS of iPhone just sitting on the shelves. Don't tell the people who show up at 6 AM still to buy the day's stock.
Duh....
My bad. I did mean to ask an open ended question as to how many iPhone could have been sold so far, but not imply that was the number. I've corrected my post.
No problem, now can we get the crew bragging to everyone about 2G manufactured during 2008 to correct it to note that many of the ones sold in 2008 could have been manufactured in 2007?
Clearly. Every Apple and ATT store I know about has LOADS of iPhone just sitting on the shelves. Don't tell the people who show up at 6 AM still to buy the day's stock.
Duh....
If each iPhone outlet EVERYWHERE IN THE WORLD, has 5 iphones as an average, it's a pretty big number.
If 20% of those outlets, which are selling phones very quickly, have 25 phones being shipped, that's a lot of phones.
When the only place you could get a phone was either AT&T or the limited number of Apple stores in the U.S. during mid-2007, that was a low number.
Now, you have Best-Buys, more Apple stores than in July of 2007, AT&T is carrying more inventory in the U.S. because they make more money on the data plan, you have zillions and zillions (as measured by IMEI numbers?) of places in zillions of countries that also carry a few in stock.
Add it up, it does matter.
A new IMEI number that shows up in the wild, representing a new high water mark could have several hundred thousand of it's siblings spread around or enroute.
You can't simply believe that phones are sold in sequentially based in IMEI numbers without any significant gap, you can't be THAT stupid......
Er, second attempt or did the previous iPhone 2G not count as an attempt?
And it's a little rich quoting Symbian's actuals against an analyst's predictions.
Also, what is the point in showing graphs of market share and sales that stop at Q3 2007 in an article about Q2 2008 sales/share? Isn't that a little silly and undermining your argument?
The second graph showing percentages of each territory is also as much use as an iPhone camera in a dark room. It doesn't show the relative sizes of each market for smartphones giving the impression that each is the same size in total.
That's just nonsense. Apple's share of the worldwide market was almost entirely from US sales where Symbian phones aren't widely available so how can Apple's market share be at Symbian's expense?
I'm pretty sure they aren't. Nokia sold a squidillion phones last quarter. Selling more smartphones than anyone else by quite some margin isn't going to get them worried either.
They've plenty of time and their platform runs on much lower end hardware. If I were Nokia I'd be more worried about Google and Linux than Apple's boutique phones.
Who the fuck cares about market share? I'll have well made, feature rich, bug free phone thanks. When Apple ships one, I'll buy one. That's why I use Macs, not their market share.
Symbian's smartphone's sales aren't rising with the market. That's clear. Even though you hate mrketshare numbers, that's too bad, because it does give up important information., and it's down to about 45% for smartphones.
That. of course, affects the actual numbers as well. It also tells us that many others don't agree with your accessment of the phones. I'm pretty sure that in a year, their marketshare will be 40%, or less. They've only done well with smartphones because there wasn't another compelling product out there. Not too many people really like phones with a lot of hard to bother with features. The iPods have proved that.
While Ballmer jumps up and down fuming " developers, developers, developers...", it's really "GUI, GUI, GUI..."
And that's one major area in which Apple wins consistently.
Those charts would show those Apple sections in almost all regions now. That would include all the regions in which Apple didn't compete in over the past year. That means a competitor that Nokia didn't have.
We'll see how it works out.
Solipsism blew it when he said 8M sold as measured by IEMI numbers.
That isn't what IEMI numbers measure, and it's also not what the website said.
The website says how many have been manufactured in 2008 and THEY blew it.
Apple says how many 2G phones they SOLD in 2008, that's not how many are manufactured in 2008.
The IEMI number tells us how many 3G have been manufactured and you can pretty much deduce they have been done so in 2008.
So you can tell what Apple sold in 2G phones during 2008, and what the IEMI numbers say 3G were manufactured in 2008.
There is no place to know what was the total manufactured of both 2g and 3g in 2008.
And there is no place to know what was sold from going crazy logging IEMI numbers.
No offense, but let's all take a breath and be accurate.
You can't tell how many phones are sold from the IEMI numbers.
Not a bad game with one country selling and limited sales.
Doing so is less and less reliable with more an more outlets around the world holding stock, or stock in shipment from one place to another.
I wish people could tighten up the reporting a little.
We're always going to see some jumping to conclusions, when you start from statements that are not accurate, you end up jumping even further off the path when jumping to conclusions.
So far, it's safe to say that newly manufactured phones get to retailers pretty quickly, and are out their doors and into the customers hands pretty quickly as well. I think it would be fair to assume that perhaps over 80%, or so of the manufactured phones are already sold.