An alternative argument for new iPhones at WWDC
A prominent blogger is firing back at a Wall Street analyst who predicted this week that Apple's upcoming developers conference won't see the introduction of new iPhones, offering a simple argument as to why the company may be compelled to introduce its new hardware at the start of the conference.
On Wednesday, Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster wrote that, "While some investors may be expecting Apple to launch redesigned iPhones at WWDC, we do not anticipate the launch in early June. Rather, we expect Apple to host a special event in late June or early July to launch a family of iPhones."
Responding to the assessment, which he called "goofy," Apple follower and Daring Fireball author John Gruber said the arrival of new iPhones at WWDC is "probably the easiest and most obvious Apple prediction of the year." He noted that last year's iPhone 3G made its debut at the conference so there's no reason to suggest this year will see anything different.
In addition, Gruber pointed to recent reports that have identified a built-in video camera and magnetometer (digital compass) as two new hardware-related features expected to turn up this year's iPhones. "[T]hat means new APIs, and if Apple wants to have WWDC sessions for the new hardware-specific APIs, they have to announce the hardware first," he said.
Apple earlier this week expanded its list of WWDC sessions, though a cursory review reveals nothing conspicuous about the existing lineup of iPhone labs or instructional presentations. Still, there's no shortage of other reasons why Apple is more likely to stick to recent tradition and clue its followers into its 2009 handset plans in early June.
For instance, the company has on average announced availability dates for its iPhones three to four weeks ahead of time so that it can funnel the necessary launch information and procedures to its partners around the world without extensive safeguards, and so that its customers have time to plan out their purchase and associated wireless contracts.
Apple is also expected to see more intense competition in the emerging smartphone space this year with Palm's touchscreen Pre device rumored for an introduction a day or so before the start of WWDC. It would be uncharacteristic of the company to allow a fledgeling rival to generate headlines weeks on end without revealing its own hand and stealing any thunder Palm may muster up, some argue.
Then there's the all-too-true argument waged by several AppleInsider forum members Wednesday that its imperative that Apple, at some point or other, demonstrate it can successfully launch a major new product like the third-generation iPhone without the charisma and showmanship that only Jobs can bring to the table.
"My gut feeling is that we’ve seen the last Steve Jobs keynote address," said Gruber. "I don’t think he’s leaving the company — and his medical leave has been scheduled to run through the end of June — but I wonder if he’s done as the company’s spokesman."
On Wednesday, Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster wrote that, "While some investors may be expecting Apple to launch redesigned iPhones at WWDC, we do not anticipate the launch in early June. Rather, we expect Apple to host a special event in late June or early July to launch a family of iPhones."
Responding to the assessment, which he called "goofy," Apple follower and Daring Fireball author John Gruber said the arrival of new iPhones at WWDC is "probably the easiest and most obvious Apple prediction of the year." He noted that last year's iPhone 3G made its debut at the conference so there's no reason to suggest this year will see anything different.
In addition, Gruber pointed to recent reports that have identified a built-in video camera and magnetometer (digital compass) as two new hardware-related features expected to turn up this year's iPhones. "[T]hat means new APIs, and if Apple wants to have WWDC sessions for the new hardware-specific APIs, they have to announce the hardware first," he said.
Apple earlier this week expanded its list of WWDC sessions, though a cursory review reveals nothing conspicuous about the existing lineup of iPhone labs or instructional presentations. Still, there's no shortage of other reasons why Apple is more likely to stick to recent tradition and clue its followers into its 2009 handset plans in early June.
For instance, the company has on average announced availability dates for its iPhones three to four weeks ahead of time so that it can funnel the necessary launch information and procedures to its partners around the world without extensive safeguards, and so that its customers have time to plan out their purchase and associated wireless contracts.
Apple is also expected to see more intense competition in the emerging smartphone space this year with Palm's touchscreen Pre device rumored for an introduction a day or so before the start of WWDC. It would be uncharacteristic of the company to allow a fledgeling rival to generate headlines weeks on end without revealing its own hand and stealing any thunder Palm may muster up, some argue.
Then there's the all-too-true argument waged by several AppleInsider forum members Wednesday that its imperative that Apple, at some point or other, demonstrate it can successfully launch a major new product like the third-generation iPhone without the charisma and showmanship that only Jobs can bring to the table.
"My gut feeling is that we’ve seen the last Steve Jobs keynote address," said Gruber. "I don’t think he’s leaving the company — and his medical leave has been scheduled to run through the end of June — but I wonder if he’s done as the company’s spokesman."
Comments
Can we please get the iPad announcement by the end of June? Netbooks are flying off shelves and Apple's new iPad would be great now. The iPhone has been getting a lot of negative publicity lately - jailbreaking for restricted Apps, AT&T's choke hold on 3G performance. An iPad, even if not available until 3rd or 4th quarter, would be a great announcement- cause a lot of buzz.
Because they always did.
Compelling!
The other thing is that if there is a family of devices coming it would be to big of a distraction at WWDC. Remember this meeting is focused on developers, they wouldn't appreciate a lost of focus for revved items. So again I see a device release only if it is significantly more capable than the current release hardware. Frankly I wouldn't be surprised if the iPhone revs get released the week before or after WWDC. Instead at WWDC we will see an iTablet.
Dave
Compelling!
Alas! We'll see to what extent...
- 2G users are coming out of first contract.
- OS 3.0 is arriving
- 3G stocks are being run low and sold at discount
- Shiller said before that June was the product cycle for iPhone
This analyst is getting paid to say stupid things. You don't have to be an expert to see from the above that something is going to happen in June iPhonewise.
Jobs may introduce a new Tablet later or the end of June when he is due back. That would seem to make sense to me. 3G iPhone launch was pretty lowbrow. Nothing much new in terms of wow-factor. Maybe Shiller and co. can do the same with the new model and let Steve do the new tablet if it arrives at the end of June.
1G iPhone was announced at MWSF 2007 and released in June 2007.
2G iPhone (3G) was announced at WWDC 2008 in June and released in July 2008.
That could very well mean the 3G iPhone would be announced at the end of June and be released in August.
But what about the idea of being able to move from one iPhone contract to the next? I got my iPhone 3G in September 2008 with a one-year Orange Switzerland contract in the hopes that I can get a third generation iPhone in September 2009, renewing my contract for another year. (My personal wishes of course don't mean anything to Apple here...)
That is my take, a minor iPhone update really has no reason to debut at WWDC. Now a tablet or a more capable iPhone is a different story altogether.
The other thing is that if there is a family of devices coming it would be to big of a distraction at WWDC. Remember this meeting is focused on developers, they wouldn't appreciate a lost of focus for revved items. So again I see a device release only if it is significantly more capable than the current release hardware. Frankly I wouldn't be surprised if the iPhone revs get released the week before or after WWDC. Instead at WWDC we will see an iTablet.
Dave
Actually, I think NOT announcing revved hardware at WWDC would be a much larger distraction, with everyone wondering if there's a problem. I think it would be a dark cloud over the entire conference. Announce it a week after? No way.
Announcing the new hardware won't distract developers from 3.0. Munster is bored and lonely.
I don't want to have to re-new my 2 year contract with my original iPhone if i plan on buying the next generation iPhone anyways.
If they are actually going to release the mythical tablet or netbook, then that would probably be where SJ makes his re-appearance. I agree with whoever said that they probably wouldn't release a new product line at WWDC because that would distract from iPhone 3.0 and Snow Leopard and wouldn't need special development if it runs plain OS X. A new iPhone, however, is coming without a doubt so why would they need a special event unless the 'kitchen sink' is something really groundbreaking that none of us can even imagine. Even still, I think they would want to discuss developing apps for that unicorn at the conference.
I would like to see the next generation of iPhones introduced before the end of June to coincide with the original iPhone contract which will be ending after June.
I don't want to have to re-new my 2 year contract with my original iPhone if i plan on buying the next generation iPhone anyways.
You wouldn't have to sign a new contract if you don't buy a new phone. You can go month to month until the new phone arrives.
I would like to see the next generation of iPhones introduced before the end of June to coincide with the original iPhone contract which will be ending after June.
I don't want to have to re-new my 2 year contract with my original iPhone if i plan on buying the next generation iPhone anyways.
If your original contract runs out, wouldn't you just pay month-to-month until the new iPhone comes out? The voice / data plan is not subsidized because you signed on for 2 yrs, just the hardware.
I would like to see the next generation of iPhones introduced before the end of June to coincide with the original iPhone contract which will be ending after June.
I don't want to have to re-new my 2 year contract with my original iPhone if i plan on buying the next generation iPhone anyways.
doesn't it just go month-to-month when the two years are over?
I would like to see the next generation of iPhones introduced before the end of June to coincide with the original iPhone contract which will be ending after June.
I don't want to have to re-new my 2 year contract with my original iPhone if i plan on buying the next generation iPhone anyways.
This is no concern. If the update comes after your contract ends, you'll just have to wait a bit to get a new iPhone: you're not obliged to re-sign a new contract as soon as your old one expires. For instance, I've been under contract only 5 of the last 8 years.
Edit: ya, what they said ^^