$900 MacBook would grow Apple's addressable market by 67%

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Comments

  • belunosbelunos Posts: 23member
    I think you all are reading too much into the current market situation concerning these announcements. The cheaper macbook rumor has been floating around before the Dow tanked last week, so assume Apple's decision to introduce a lower priced macbook has anything to do with their current stock value
  • digitalclipsdigitalclips Posts: 15,309member
    One of these days Steve will return to 'One more thing' and blow everyone's mind ... one day ...
  • banalltvbanalltv Posts: 238member
    An 800 $/? Macbook would almost make me feel guilty not buying it.., you know, just for e-mails and to PO the PC heads.
  • amorphamorph Posts: 7,112member
    Steve Jobs is widely claimed to be elitist, and in a sense he is. But as a product designer he has always tried to balance releasing products that satisfied his own aesthetic standards that were nevertheless within the reach of as many people as possible. "Apple as choice of the elite" was a necessary positioning strategy with the pricey, and then niche, Macintosh. NeXT machines had to be high-end or Steve would have broken his non-compete agreement with Apple. With the desktop war over, Apple needed a new computer. Now they have one in the iPhone, and the game is on again. Those of us who remember the Apple ][ and the original intentions of the Mac team are not surprised to see Apple gunning for mass popularity with the iPhone.



    While Wal-Mart is ruthlessly efficient, demanding of its suppliers, and responsible for a great deal of manufacturing moving to China as a result, Apple can hardly say they're on any kind of moral high ground, relatively speaking: Apple is ruthlessly efficient, demanding of its suppliers, and it has moved as much of its manufacturing as possible to China, with the rest going to Taiwan and Korea. The city-sized factory that makes iPods has been nicknamed "Mordor" by Apple employees. It's not pretty, even if the end products look pretty.



    As far as $800 notebooks go, Apple understands that hardware is part of the platform. There are certain minimum standards that they try to adhere to as broadly as possible (we can all think of exceptions, of course) so that the Mac experience is consistent, Apple's job as a system vendor is easier, and there is one maximally large market for the vast majority of hardware and software developers. They haven't targeted the cheap laptop market because there's no way to make a good laptop at those prices, and until recently there wasn't much point in trying because Macs were stuck in their niche. But you can believe that they've trying to figure it out since OS X stopped teething (at the latest). Apple's laptop growth is explosive, the platform is increasingly seen as a valid and appealing choice, and the numbers don't lie. If Apple produces a sub-$1k laptop ($999 doesn't count) that isn't fragile, bulky, prone to crashing or overheating, loud, slow, or otherwise plagued with the issues that plague cheap laptops they will own that market.
  • cameronjcameronj Posts: 2,357member
    Removed.
  • irelandireland Posts: 15,526member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post


    One of these days Steve will return to 'One more thing' and blow everyone's mind ... one day ...



    August/September 2009 - Mac touch



    One more bling...
  • irelandireland Posts: 15,526member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Fast Fred 1 View Post


    Wow..........$800 huh. I think the red bubble wrap is so cool.



    Yeah, it's Product Red Bubblewrap™
  • irelandireland Posts: 15,526member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Banalltv View Post


    An 800 $/€ Macbook would almost make me feel guilty not buying it.., you know, just for e-mails and to PO the PC heads.



    Judging by the new manufacturing process, a.k.a. the brick, and coming from working in that industry before I don't see how they'll have a chance of selling this for $800. I've seen all those pics, the whole top, keyboard tray and side walls is machined out of one solid piece of aluminum. I'd be frankly surprised to see a $899 price point. Unless Apple are in fact making the product themselves.



    Oppenheimer - "transition, cost" etc.



    The only way I see this being less than $950, is if in fact they are producing these things in their own smallish factory in Asia. At least that part of the product. Which is easily believable. I worked in a place which could make these out of aluminum, but the cost to get something like this made was astronomical. We're talking thousand$ per unit. Even at millions of units they still wouldn't be as cheap as Apple would need them to be in order to sell at these kinds of prices I don't think.
  • tbagginstbaggins Posts: 2,306member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Amorph View Post


    If Apple produces a sub-$1k laptop ($999 doesn't count)





    999 is < 1,000, last time I checked.



    But I agree with those who say that $800 would be surprising.





    ...
  • amorphamorph Posts: 7,112member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post


    999 is < 1,000, last time I checked.



    Technically, yes. Psychologically, maybe. But I have always assumed that sub-$1k means substantially less than $1,000. The sweet spot seems to be $800 from the people I talk to.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post


    But I agree with those who say that $800 would be surprising.



    It would be shocking. I think $900 is a better bet. I think $999 is even more likely. It would allow Apple to split that last crucial hair that gets them under $1k. But they'll still miss the sweet spot in that price range.
  • tenobelltenobell Posts: 7,014member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post


    ?

    WOW... I've been advocating that Apple go for marketshare and do a sub-$1000 notebook for AGES. And met with stiff disagreement at every turn most every time I said it.



    Now, alluva sudden, it's the conventional wisdom that Apple should do this???



    LOL, how times change. Guess I'm just ahead of my time.



    And it looks like I may be picking up one of these new MacBooks too, now that Steve has apparently stopped directly injecting overblown margins into his veins. Can't wait 'til the event tomorrow.



    ...



    If Apple does do this. I would believe it is because they have been able to get the cost of bulk component purchases and manufacturing down to where in the long run Apple will continue make their revenue margins. This is something Apple likely was not able to do in the past.



    Its likely Apple is able to do this because Nvidia wants its chipsets to gain respect and wide use. Apple promoting them in its notebooks is an excellent way to achieve such respect.
  • rolorolo Posts: 686member
    Here's what I think will be introduced tomorrow:



    New all aluminum MacBook, no plastic, traditional trackpad, same screen, LED backlight, no FireWire port. Apple will either include a USB-FireWire adapter or you can get your own. Faster FSB, much faster integrated graphics. A base price of $899 would increase sales.



    New aluminum MacBook Pro. New enclosure, similar to MacBook, with magnetic latch-less closure and MacBook-like keyboard. Same screen. Traditional trackpad. New hybrid-SLI graphics uses integrated graphics in low demand, low battery situations but uses dedicated discreet 9600M GPU at other times. They might even be able to share task load at times.



    MacBook Air could get the new nVidia chipset and a Penryn CPU. If so, that'd increase battery life while also increasing graphics performance.



    What I don't expect to see:



    Glass trackpad

    Two-tone plastic aluminum

    16x9 displays



    It'd be wonderful if Apple would make a MBP with a 16.4" 16x9 display but I tend to doubt that'll happen this time. If it were to happen, it'd obviate both the 15.4" and 17" displays.



    About the stock:



    My guess is that the new portables are priced into the stock now. As I'm writing this, AAPL continues to go up after hours, now at 110.85. There could be some selling on the news, starting around 1 PM ET. What often happens is an increase in the stock price in the morning followed by some selling in the afternoon. Of course, things could be different this time.
  • drackmeredrackmere Posts: 8member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Amorph View Post


    The city-sized factory that makes iPods has been nicknamed "Mordor" by Apple employees. It's not pretty, even if the end products look pretty.



    You know this for a fact? I had never heard that before, but then if that is the case, does that make SJ Sauron? Eeww.
  • solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Amorph View Post


    Technically, yes. Psychologically, maybe. But I have always assumed that sub-$1k means substantially less than $1,000. The sweet spot seems to be $800 from the people I talk to.



    It would be shocking. I think $900 is a better bet. I think $999 is even more likely. It would allow Apple to split that last crucial hair that gets them under $1k. But they'll still miss the sweet spot in that price range.



    I'd say it counts. It's only a $1, but then you add in Amazon's lowered prices and student discounts and you get it for even less, but as you mentioned, it's a psychological thing.



    $899 seems doable, but where are they gonna cut out $200 off the price of the current MacBook? As for the pundits clamoring for an $800 MacBook, which probably won't happen and will probably drop the stock tomorrow (not that it already won't drop after today's gain), I have to wonder where they are pulling these numbers from.



    My theory is...

    Since Apple has a 70% marketshare of ALL consumer PCs in the US, which is near the saturation point, so they have only three choices ahead of them...



    . . . .1) Move into the business sector (but that would mean making a whole new Apple division)

    . . . .2) Make a fervid move into other countries markets (which they are doing, but at a slow pace)

    . . . .3) Sell cheaper machines to attract more buyers



    Only the latter is Apple's show in for continuing to increase their marketshare. But they have to do it in a way so they are not just making cheap, commodity HW that has to be riddled with crapware in order to turn a buck.



    Also, Apple's year-over-year growth since moving to Intel has put certain strains on Intel's production. Unlike other vendors, like HP and Dell, who sll considerably more PCs than Apple, they do not use nearly as many of Intel's select, top-of-the-line processors. By offering a couple cheaper Macs both Intel and Apple are less rushed, while Apple still maintains significant growth.



    The only issue I see here is maintain profit margins. Do the more expensive Macs take the all on this or does Apple remove quintessential "Mac-like" features, such as FW400, 1" cases, and slot loading drives, but still offering Mac OS X?
  • asciiascii Posts: 5,363member
    Wow - a low price Mac just in time for the recession. Was it foresight, or just the reward for efficiency?
  • macd-to-deathmacd-to-death Posts: 15member
    They are not going to take out $200 in costs. They will let the price-cut eat into their profits, for the sake of putting price pressure on competitors. Over time, they expect to increase their gross sales, which will bring their profits back up, but this time with a greater domination of the laptop market.
  • spinnerlysspinnerlys Posts: 218member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by NeilM View Post


    Well so much for the secular growth ? how about the religious growth?

    What if if there's no growth in tact and Apple remains no more tactful than at present?



    How about AppleInsider does even elementary proofreading?

    Nah, it'll never happen.



    From the Mac OS X build in dictionary:



    secular |ˈsekyələr|

    adjective



    1. denoting attitudes, activities, or other things that have no religious or spiritual basis : secular buildings | secular moral theory. Contrasted with sacred .



    2. Christian Church (of clergy) not subject to or bound by religious rule; not belonging to or living in a monastic or other order. Contrasted with regular .



    3. Astronomy of or denoting slow changes in the motion of the sun or planets.



    4. Economics (of a fluctuation or trend) occurring or persisting over an indefinitely long period : there is evidence that the slump is not cyclical but secular.



    5. occurring once every century or similarly long period (used esp. in reference to celebratory games in ancient Rome).
  • solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ascii View Post


    Wow - a low price Mac just in time for the recession. Was it foresight, or just the reward for efficiency?



    I think it has to do with the the saturation of their current market, which I detailed in a post above. I think the recession and Windows Vista is just a "fortunate" happenstance for Apple.





    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Macd-to-death View Post


    They are not going to take out $200 in costs. They will let the price-cut eat into their profits, for the sake of putting price pressure on competitors. Over time, they expect to increase their gross sales, which will bring their profits back up, but this time with a greater domination of the laptop market.



    Perhaps not $200, but they will reduce aspects, and perhaps build quality to a point that make the endeavor worthwhile. Apple is not know for being a loss-leader company, and I see no reason why they would start now. However, you do have a valid point in that once you get people onto a Mac it will harder to get them back to a Windows-based system.
  • kolchakkolchak Posts: 1,398member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by sflocal View Post


    they like to put themselves in the same places as any "luxury" brand such as Mercedes, BMW, B&O, etc. and do not want to "water down" their brand-image and risk being known as a "cheap" brand like Dell.



    Couple of problems there. It's widely known that B&O products are terrible. Interesting looks, but awful performance, ergonomics, user interface, etc. Apple may be perceived as overpriced, but only diehard Windows fans think Macs and/or OS X don't work well.



    There's also the oft-repeated matter of needing to be a luxury brand like Mercedes. Mercedes also makes and sells their A-Class in Europe, which runs about $30,000, hardly a premium vehicle. They're also the makers of the Smart car, which has finally made it to US shores starting at $12,000. Mercedes is not as exclusive as most Americans think.
  • icd-evilicd-evil Posts: 66member
    $949 seems like the realistic number.
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