Apple seen moving 2M iPads in 2010 before sales 'catalyst' emerges

Posted:
in Current Mac Hardware edited January 2014
Though it has great future potential, Apple's newly announced multitouch iPad will see a moderate sales start, and most purchases will be at the cost of iPod touch sales, a new analysis has projected.



In a note to investors issued Wednesday morning, analyst Charlie Wolf With Needham & Company said he believes Apple will sell two million iPads in fiscal 2010, with over half of those sales coming at the expense of the iPod touch. He expects another six million sales in 2011.



Wolf noted that the demand for iPods and iPhones did not accelerate until "the arrival of a catalyst" for each of the products. For the iPod, it was the opening of the iTunes Music Store and porting of the media suite to Windows in 2003. And for the iPhone, it was the release of the software development kit and opening of the App Store in 2008.



What the catalyst will be for the iPad, Wolf said, remains to be seen.



"The long-term trajectory of iPad sales is unlikely to be revealed in the first 18 months after its introduction this spring," he wrote. "If the analogy with the iPod and iPhone holds up, history suggests, then, that a hockey stick in sales is unlikely to occur before fiscal 2012, which is beyond our forecast period."



Wolf sees the iPad having the greatest chances of success in the education and healthcare markets. He envisions students accessing their texbooks via an iPad, and doctors and nurses carrying around a wealth of relevant information via the 1.5-pound device. One recent report suggested some hospitals were looking at the iPad as a potential tool, while major textbook publishers have signed with application developer ScrollMotion to adapt textbooks to an electronic format.



A more challenging market for Apple to crack is general business. But Wolf sees hope there, as the iPhone is currently being evaluated for deployment at most Fortune 200 companies. In addition, sources have told AppleInsider that Apple is targeting the iPad at business users with features designed to make it attractive for the enterprise market.



But the largest potential market for the iPad is home users, where it will likely target netbook users. With a starting price of $499, Wolf believes Apple will appeal to users who are interested in using a device solely to access the Internet.







With the iPad forecast to cut into iPod touch sales, its projected net revenue contribution to Apple is relatively small, with just 1.2 percent in 2010 and another 2.7 percent in 2011. Needham & Company has maintained earnings per share estimates of $12.85 in 2010 and $15.25 in 2011 with a price target of $235.
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Comments

  • appleciderapplecider Posts: 72member
    Those apps should sell quite a few of the pads even without Wolfe's "killer app".



    2 million a year I think is really low even just with today's apps.



    Time will tell.
  • object-xobject-x Posts: 42member
    I think they are grossly underestimating the impact of this device and it's entry level price point. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Apple sells close to 10 million in the first year. Nor do I think it will have a significant impact on iPod Touch sales either; those numbers will continue to increase. For the price of a MacBook Pro I'm going to be buying my family three right at the start. Even my 80 year old father is asking me about one.
  • ivan.rnn01ivan.rnn01 Posts: 1,822member
    Well, I believe this fits the topic.







    I've been sporting pretty nice siggy since weeks now.
  • nkhmnkhm Posts: 928member
    Another day, another opinion. Only time will tell.



    I don't see this eating significantly into iPod Touch sales - nor do Apple, or I don't think they'd have launched the device. The iPod Touch is primarily a portable music player and this is why most people buy it, which the iPad can never be used for - unless you've got very large pockets.



    I disagree that the iPhone and iPod touch didn't take off until the release of the SDK and App store. The iPod touch was simply a must-have upgrade to the iPod line, and the iPhone a cell-phone for the iPod generation. It didn't need a sales 'catalyst', but it must continue to evolve and innovate (or at least to seen to be innovating) in order to maintain or grow it's current market position.
  • mark2005mark2005 Posts: 1,158member
    Altho I think the iPad is revolutionary in its aims of selling an appliance to a different demographic, because multi-touch and Apps were already introduced and sampled on the iPhone/iPod touch and because of the Apple brand Halo factor, the iPad will not be as slow as either the iPod or iPhone out of the gate.



    So I think the iPad will sell well from its launch date, but another catalyst for the iPad will be iPad-specific Apps beyond iWork. That could be in March/April or sometime later; Apple hasn't said.
  • quadra 610quadra 610 Posts: 6,550member
    The iPad wil be flying off shelves. The kind of promotion it's getting already is absolutely crazy.



    And Hollywood's picked it up, thanks to Colbert and the Grammys. The iPad will be *the* device to have, no foolin.
  • steviet02steviet02 Posts: 592member
    The 5 people I questioned all said they weren't going to buy an iPad. So I don't think Apple will sell any units in 2010.
  • paxmanpaxman Posts: 4,080member
    I think they underestimate the appeal of the iPad. I imagine it will become the new home laptop. It may eat into all sorts of other sales but more than anything it will allow people to get a cheap home computer that truly is easy to use, and at a great price.I think it will become a 'new' addition more than it will cannibalize. I can even see people finding all sorts of dedicated uses for it such as a dedicated itunes / music / radio player, and as the storage capacity increases, also a video player. As a first computer for kids it is perfect, etc etc.
  • paxmanpaxman Posts: 4,080member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by steviet02 View Post


    The 5 people I questioned all said they weren't going to buy an iPad. So I don't think Apple will sell any units in 2010.



    Nah, I asked a guy I work with and he said he was getting one. So I think it'll sell really well.
  • digitalclipsdigitalclips Posts: 15,198member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Object-X View Post


    I think they are grossly underestimating the impact of this device and it's entry level price point. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Apple sells close to 10 million in the first year. Nor do I think it will have a significant impact on iPod Touch sales either; those numbers will continue to increase. For the price of a MacBook Pro I'm going to be buying my family three right at the start. Even my 80 year old father is asking me about one.



    Hey what's with the 'even', you think 80 is passed it? lol. My 86 year old father is standing by to order his he tells me. He has a new 27" iMac i7 but feels the iPad will be great when sitting in an arm chair or going to bed early to read.
  • digitalclipsdigitalclips Posts: 15,198member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by steviet02 View Post


    The 5 people I questioned all said they weren't going to buy an iPad. So I don't think Apple will sell any units in 2010.



    Wow, that is a good scientific study. You should become an analyst!
  • dreyfus2dreyfus2 Posts: 1,004member
    Anecdotal evidence: I polled my class of 31 students this Monday (they own 23 iPhones and 8 Android devices and netbooks/laptops now). All of them want to get one and 29 said they would order immediately without reconsidering it. Absolutely everybody I have met in the last week wants one and most said they will go for the 32 GB model with 3G... From what I see, this will sell like hotcakes. If they can make enough of them, I see 8-10 million in 2010. Easily.
  • BuffyzDeadBuffyzDead Posts: 228member
    WHY the iPad will be a HUGE SUCCESS and will truly change the way people use "mobile" computers.



    So many pundits, bloggers and ANALysts are really missing the elephant in the room.



    "Oh, it's just a big iPod Touch".

    "No one really needs this".

    "The market segment is not defined" .blah blah blah



    It's 100% the Operating System and the User Interface.



    Complete computer illiterate's will be able to pick one up and just use it.

    The iPhone and iPod installed base is just a small piece of the market.

    And when the Apps, specific to this platform take off, millions will be sold.

    Wait till you see the New Apple iPad commercials, showing off Apps.



    Fast forward to Jan 2012



    If Windows and Linux do not begin a complete re-write, from the ground-up, of what a "native touch operating system" IS (ex. iPhone OS), Apple will have a five year head-start on All other operating systems (as it pertains to "a true, intuitive, mature, simple, yet Powerful touch UI). I am no genius but I'll bet my house that what you see in this video will NEVER EVER succeed "touch-wise"....EVER!! (http://www.engadget.com/2010/02/01/e...t-strictly-me/)



    Android looks like it might be the only remaining competitor to Apple, OS-wise, but which company is even setup to deliver the the complete product?
  • dr millmossdr millmoss Posts: 5,403member
    Almost everything new (products, trends, etc.) follows the classic s-curve of adoption in three phases: early adopters, mass acceptance, saturation. So we're really not getting any insights from this analyst, he's just parroting the obvious.
  • illinisouthillinisouth Posts: 14member
    I saw a TV ad last night for a health care/pharma company that featured several doctors/nurses standing in hallways. Each and everyone one of them was clutching a legal pad, a chart, even one holding a laptop. I immediately saw all these repositories of information replaced by shiny iPads.
  • inklinginkling Posts: 731member
    Industry analysts seem to have a knack for getting it wrong, perhaps because so many of them seem to lack common sense. Would I buy a iPad instead of an iPod touch. Not very likely. I have a touch and it's a very different beast. It slips into my pocket and goes with me everywhere. I'm more likely to leave home having forgotten my cell phone than my trusty touch. I use my touch a lot traveling and out on walks to listen to podcasts. I can't imagine myself doing that with an iPad. I'd look silly.



    I'm thinking about getting an iPad late in 2010, but it won't be as a touch replacement. The beast is far too big to carry with me everywhere. In the short-term it won't replace anything except perhaps books. The work apps on my MacBook (such as Scrivener) don't yet exist on an iPad. In the long term, if enough writing/working apps migrate to the iPad, it still probably won't substitute for a laptop, it'll just delay how often I upgrade. And in the end, Apple will probably get more money out of me rather than less.
  • sandausandau Posts: 1,230member
    This thing will sell better than the 3M Ergo Audrey Internet Appliance! Guaranteed!



    I'm getting one. Perfect match for my 27" iMac. I sold my MBP last month knowing that (for me) having a notebook was no longer in my future with an iPad like device.





  • nkhmnkhm Posts: 928member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by steviet02 View Post


    The 5 people I questioned all said they weren't going to buy an iPad. So I don't think Apple will sell any units in 2010.



    Every technophobe, or household/low-level computer user (email, web, music only) that i've spoken to has said their getting one.



    I don't know an IT pro who has said "absolutely getting one", but I guess that's not where this device is aimed.



    I actually think demand will be so high we'll end up with delays and issues due to stock levels and suppliers matching demand.
  • hillstoneshillstones Posts: 1,490member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by BuffyzDead View Post


    Complete computer illiterate's will be able to pick one up and just use it.



    Really? Are you sure about that? You cannot use an iPad without already owning a Mac or PC computer, and having a WiFi network at home (people are not going to buy the 3G model to use solely at home). How do you expect to get anything into it without having a computer, and knowing how to operate said computer? How is a computer illiterate going to be able to get on the internet if they are too stupid to know how to set up a WiFi network to make it work? They might be able to tap a few icons, but they won't be able to do anything with it. Nice try.



    The iPad is NOT something that can replace a computer. Most iPhone and laptop owners will have no interest in the iPod Touch Grande. I would rather use a laptop and have a COMPLETE internet experience, without the hobbled iPad. Also, the iPad doesn't fit well as a family device since it does not offer multiple user login.
  • sandausandau Posts: 1,230member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by nkhm View Post




    I actually think demand will be so high we'll end up with delays and issues due to stock levels and suppliers matching demand.



    i completely agree with this statement. I think there will be shortages from day 1. Lines around the block at the Apple stores. Youtube unboxing frenzy, geeks swooning and fainting and the gnashing of teeth from those that couldn't get one.
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