IDC predicts Windows Phone will top Apple's iOS in market share by 2015

Posted:
in iPhone edited January 2014
A new forecast of the global smartphone platform market from research firm IDC has predicted that Microsoft's Windows Phone platform will see a resurgence in the next four years, overtaking Apple's iOS platform which powers the iPhone.



IDC on Tuesday revealed its prediction that the worldwide smartphone market will grow 49.2 percent in 2011, with more than 450 million smartphones shipped. That would be a major increase from the 303.4 million units shipped in 2010.



IDC sees Apple's iOS taking 15.7 percent of global smartphone operating system market shipments in 2011. That would place Apple's platform which powers the iPhone in third place, behind market leader Android, with 39.5 percent, and Symbian, with 20.9 percent.



But despite the tremendous growth of the iPhone since it was introduced in 2007, IDC sees Apple's platform share actually dipping in global share by 2015 to 15.3 percent. Perhaps most surprising is the firm's prediction that Windows Phone 7 and Windows Mobile will grow to 20.9 percent of the market by 2015.



Growth of the multi-device Windows Phone platform is expected to be driven by Nokia's decision to adopt Microsoft's platform on its future mobile devices. Microsoft is said to be paying billions of dollars to Nokia in their arrangement.



"Up until the launch of Windows Phone 7 last year, Microsoft has steadily lost market share while other operating systems have brought forth new and appealing experiences," said Ramon Llamas, senior research analyst with IDC's Mobile Devices Technology and Trends team. "The new alliance brings together Nokia's hardware capabilities and Windows Phone's differentiated platform. We expect the first devices to launch in 2012. By 2015, IDC expects Windows Phone to be number 2 operating system worldwide behind Android."







Accordingly, IDC sees the share of Nokia's once-dominant Symbian platform dropping significantly by 2015. In the next four years, IDC sees Symbian representing just 0.2 percent of shipments.



IDC sees the smartphone market growing more than four times faster than the overall mobile phone market in the coming years. However, in the firm's projections, smartphones will not see market growth in 2011 as strong as it was in 2010.



"Android is poised to take over as the leading smartphone operating system in 2011 after racing into the number 2 position in 2010," Llamas said. "For the vendors who made Android the cornerstone of their smartphone strategies, 2010 was the coming-out party. This year will see a coronation party as these same vendors broaden and deepen their portfolios to reach more customers, particularly first-time smartphone users."



Earlier this year, IDC tracking found Apple to be the No. 2 global vendor of smartphones in terms of hardware sales. It found that Apple represented 16.1 percent of the smartphone market, trailing behind only Nokia, which represented an estimated 28 percent of hardware shipments in the fourth quarter of 2010.
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Comments

  • pkstreetpkstreet Posts: 21member
    ? really ??? I think it's time for me to get a job as an analyst...
  • stevetimstevetim Posts: 482member
    if nokia remains relevant this may be true, but that is a big if.



    all indications is that Nokia market share will crash and burn.



    But if they get the microsoft OS on their future cheap and smart phones, this is possible, but not likely.
  • mebbertmebbert Posts: 56member
    All I can think is "wow"! Either this guy knows something, or M$ paid him some money. There is no basis for such a claim.
  • drobforeverdrobforever Posts: 400member
    Isn't it too early of a day for a joke like this?
  • snailersnailer Posts: 36member
    Or M$ and Nokia will both be done.
  • xian zhu xuandexian zhu xuande Posts: 801member
    What an inane interpretation of data...
  • sflocalsflocal Posts: 3,289member
    Well... if they are discussing market share in terms of what Android has done, then it's theoretically possible providing Nokia puts it on all their bargain-basement phones and the carriers essentially give the phones away.



    However, when it comes to actually making money on those phones, me think Apple/iOS will still have everyone else gasping for air.



    I don't care how awesome the software is if it is coupled with horrible/cheap hardware that ruins the entire experience. I think the joe-consumer is finally beginning to realize that.
  • paul94544paul94544 Posts: 1,027member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Xian Zhu Xuande View Post


    What an inane interpretation of data...



    It might be a good idea to explain why otherwise you have very little credibility. You must give valid reasons.
  • ilogicilogic Posts: 298member
    A tad early on the April Fools.
  • charlitunacharlituna Posts: 7,056member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by pkstreet View Post


    ? really ??? I think it's time for me to get a job as an analyst...



    Actually the numbers may not be off the mark. Remember they are looking at this in terms of operating systems and Windows and Android are open for anyone to license while iOs is not.



    So basically they are talking about an OS tied to a single device holding steady to perhaps dropping less than a percent while the other systems have to hit multiple hardware attempts to duke it out for the rest of the market.



    In terms of hardware, the iPhone could still rise up as the best selling hardware. Perhaps by a sizable margin



    And remember that not having a huge chunk of the market can be a good place re: antitrust and other legal issues. Apple may be very happy with a mere 15% if it means no one can sue and make the open the OS for licensing. Especially if that cut is bringing on money hand over fist with 100 of millions of iPhones being sold and billions of apps being bought.
  • hill60hill60 Posts: 6,949member
    Assuming that the people buying Symbian phones today from Nokia will switch to buying Windows phones from Nokia as is evident from just swapping the numbers in the table.



    Nokia came out yesterday with a statement they still fully intend to support Symbian.
  • guch20guch20 Posts: 173member
    They need a Sprint iPhone for us idiots who are stuck with Sprint because we like the Unlimited plan. I don't want an Android phone (I have enough risk of viruses with my PC), and Windows Phone 7 is boring and dated already and has very few apps.



    But I'm due to upgrade in July. If Apple doesn't do something quick, I'll be stuck adding either to Google's or Microsoft's numbers.
  • applestudapplestud Posts: 367member
    This may happen, or it may not. Who knows. One thing is for sure: Apple will continue to inhale the vast majority of industry profits. And if that comes with smaller market share, Steve Jobs & Co. are perfectly fine with that.
  • quinneyquinney Posts: 2,379member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


    "Android is poised to take over as the leading smartphone operating system in 2011 after racing into the number 2 position in 2010," Llamas said. "For the vendors who made Android the cornerstone of their smartphone strategies, 2010 was the coming-out party. This year will see a coronation party as these same vendors broaden and deepen their portfolios to reach more customers, particularly first-time smartphone users."



    Apparently IDC does not believe Apple will broaden or deepen its phone portfolio between now and 2015.
  • applestudapplestud Posts: 367member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by charlituna View Post




    And remember that not having a huge chunk of the market can be a good place re: antitrust and other legal issues. Apple may be very happy with a mere 15% if it means no one can sue and make the open the OS for licensing. Especially if that cut is bringing on money hand over fist with 100 of millions of iPhones being sold and billions of apps being bought.



    Exactly. Apple is just gonna keep "doing their thing," which means making the best devices they can possibly make. The rest of the market can do whatever the hell they want.
  • crtaylorcrtaylor Posts: 79member
    I don't care what this guy says. There is a reason why Apple is hardcore and its competitor is nick-named Windoze!
  • nasseraenasserae Posts: 3,118member
    This must be a joke!



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Paul94544 View Post


    It might be a good idea to explain why otherwise you have very little credibility. You must give valid reasons.



    I will give you one main reason.. No one is buying Windows phones now.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by charlituna View Post


    Actually the numbers may not be off the mark. Remember they are looking at this in terms of operating systems and Windows and Android are open for anyone to license while iOs is not.



    MS can license their Windows Phone OS to as many as they want. Their market share will go no where if no one is buying them. Right now, no one is buying WP7 phones.
  • hardynhhardynh Posts: 20member
    LOL, IDC is always so funny.
  • sockrolidsockrolid Posts: 2,431member
    Oops, did I type IDG instead of IDC?



    Yes I did. Because IDG (International Data Group), is the parent company of IDC (International Data Corporation.) Yup. *That* IDG. The very same IDG that publishes Macworld magazine and runs the Macworld Conference & Expo.



    And yes, that would be the Macworld conference that Apple no longer bothers to attend. Apple and IDG's relationship went sour when IDG moved the summer Macworld from NYC back to Boston in 2005. Apple quit going to the summer Macworld. And Apple dumped IDG entirely when they announced that they wouldn't even attend MWSF any more.



    Sour grapes? Probably not, but it really seems like industry analysts are acting more and more like bloggers. Publishing link-bait and basking in the glory.
  • stephenla818stephenla818 Posts: 1member
    Is it getting cold in here? I think Hell may have just frozen over.
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