'Unprecedented' demand for Apple's iPhone 5 exceeds iPhone 4 hype

Posted:
in iPhone edited January 2014
A new survey has found "unprecedented" demand for Apple's next iPhone, with 31 percent of respondents indicating they are likely to buy the anticipated handset.



The results of the RBC/ChangeWave survey were released Tuesday by analyst Mike Abramsky. The poll of 2,200 respondents taken between Aug. 2 and 10 found that pre-launch demand for the so-called "iPhone 5" exceeds that of the iPhone 4, as a similar poll conducted in 2010 found 25 percent of respondents would buy Apple's fourth-generation smartphone.



In all, 13 percent of respondents said in August 2011 that they are "very likely" to buy a fifth-generation iPhone, while 18 percent said they are "somewhat likely." That's even better than the 12 percent who were "very likely" and 13 percent "somewhat likely" to purchase an iPhone 4 in June of 2010.



Abramsky also pointed out what he believes will be a "significant" upgrade cycle, as the iPhone 4 is nearly 15 months old. The poll found that 66 percent of existing iPhone users are very or somewhat likely to buy the iPhone 5, which indicates Apple could see a large number of upgraders.



The survey also found strong demand for the next iPhone at carriers Sprint and T-Mobile, where more than 50 percent of subscribers said they are either significantly or somewhat more likely to buy the iPhone if available. Last month, The Wall Street Journal reported that Sprint would offer the iPhone 5 alongside AT&T and Verizon in October.



Because of the survey's indication that iPhone 5 demand is high, Abramsky has raised his estimated fiscal 2012 iPhone sales to 110 million, up from 105 million. He sees Apple selling 27 million iPhones in the first quarter of fiscal 2012 alone.



The survey also asked respondents about the iPad, and the results show utter dominance for Apple, with 85 percent of all tablet buyers planning to buy the iPad. That's up from 82 percent in February.







The survey data also shows strong back-to-school buying for the iPad 2, as 26 percent of respondents said they are very or somewhat likely to buy Apple's second-generation tablet. Accordingly, Abramsky has also increased his iPad sales estimate for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2011 to 12.5 million.



RBC Capital Markets sees Apple earning $110 billion in revenue in fiscal 2011, growing to $140 billion in revenue the following year, and $167 billion by fiscal 2013. It has a $500 price target for AAPL stock.
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Comments

  • hankx32hankx32 Posts: 121member
    A nice morning story to accompany my bowl of Cheerios. Go AAPL!!!
  • saareksaarek Posts: 974member
    This is the type of survey where ones response can only be something like "No Sh*t Sherlock"!



    There is a huge demand for the iPhone 5, just waiting on Apple to get their butts into gear and actually release it, the imminent release of the GM version of iOS pretty much confirms the October release date.



    Now we just need Apple to arrange a little presentation.......
  • mytdavemytdave Posts: 409member
    That's great. I'm in that boat too. Apple still needs to work to push that number farther north, including a renewed push to appeal to the younger crowds which are increasingly interested in Android devices - which are now considered the devices with the 'cool' factor.
  • airnerdairnerd Posts: 222member
    When everyone is used to a yearly refresh, and then have to wait longer there will be a lot of pent up demand. I sure hope AAPL doesn't get used to all this hype and start waiting longer between refreshes.
  • svnippsvnipp Posts: 430member
    Yeah. No surprise here. If nothing else just consider what a HUGE seller the iPhone 3GS was, and I'm sure that most of those iPhone owners, myself included, are definitely considering if not planning to buy the new iPhone 5. Add to that the comparative handful of people that will pay the early contract termination, plus the potentially huge number of Sprint customers and this should be a truly massive launch.
  • nofeernofeer Posts: 2,422member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by airnerd View Post


    When everyone is used to a yearly refresh, and then have to wait longer there will be a lot of pent up demand. I sure hope AAPL doesn't get used to all this hype and start waiting longer between refreshes.



    also more contracts become "available"
  • svnippsvnipp Posts: 430member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by airnerd View Post


    When everyone is used to a yearly refresh, and then have to wait longer there will be a lot of pent up demand. I sure hope AAPL doesn't get used to all this hype and start waiting longer between refreshes.



    I doubt it. I really think this is going to be the oddity in the release cycle. I think that Apple was just sliding the iPhone release cycle to match up with the iPod release cycle/event. Someone else made the comment on another thread about the iPhone being the BIG deal which will help to boost interest in the iPod media event.
  • tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 40,379member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mytdave View Post


    ?the younger crowds? ?are increasingly interested in Android devices?



    That's a complete falsehood.







    It's too early for this? Do you seriously believe that HTC guy?
  • cajuncajun Posts: 95member
    This can't be easy for AT&T... think of all those monthly contracts expiring (several months' worth now), and how much of an exodus there will be to Verizon, T-Mobile, and Sprint. This is the first opportunity that 3GS owners have to leave AT&T (and still be on the iPhone).
  • al_bundyal_bundy Posts: 1,525member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by airnerd View Post


    When everyone is used to a yearly refresh, and then have to wait longer there will be a lot of pent up demand. I sure hope AAPL doesn't get used to all this hype and start waiting longer between refreshes.



    i don't know what kind of deal apple and AT&T worked out last year, but a lot of people probably weren't due for an upgrade until now. i bought my wife a 4 in august of last year and only in the last two weeks did her upgrade status change to fully subsidized again
  • galaxytabgalaxytab Posts: 122member
    The bigger the hype, the harder the fail.
  • rothgarrrothgarr Posts: 58member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mytdave View Post


    That's great. I'm in that boat too. Apple still needs to work to push that number farther north, including a renewed push to appeal to the younger crowds which are increasingly interested in Android devices - which are now considered the devices with the 'cool' factor.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post


    That's a complete falsehood.







    It's too early for this… Do you seriously believe that HTC guy?



    Exactly. There was nothing scientific about that guy's "findings". His whole story could even have been made up.



    If anything, college students and younger might choose an Android over an iPhone but because you can get a number of Android-based smartphones for under $50 -- that's appealing to a student on a tight budget.
  • proximityeffectproximityeffect Posts: 183member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by GalaxyTab View Post


    The bigger the hype, the harder the fail.





    Your name choice certainly testifies to that!
  • matrix07matrix07 Posts: 1,993member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by GalaxyTab View Post


    The bigger the hype, the harder the fail.



    I know you pray for it every night.
  • bryanlbryanl Posts: 67member
    AppleInsider sure seems to love the quoted word headlines. Maybe they'll 'enjoy' this post.
  • ajitmdajitmd Posts: 365member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


    A new survey has found "unprecedented" demand for Apple's next iPhone, with 31 percent of respondents indicating they are likely to buy the anticipated handset.



    The results of the RBC/ChangeWave survey were released Tuesday by analyst Mike Abramsky. The poll of 2,200 respondents taken between Aug. 2 and 10 found that pre-launch demand for the so-called "iPhone 5" exceeds that of the iPhone 4, as a similar poll conducted in 2010 found 25 percent of respondents would buy Apple's fourth-generation smartphone.



    In all, 13 percent of respondents said in August 2011 that they are "very likely" to buy a fifth-generation iPhone, while 18 percent said they are "somewhat likely." That's even better than the 12 percent who were "very likely" and 13 percent "somewhat likely" to purchase an iPhone 4 in June of 2010.



    Abramsky also pointed out what he believes will be a "significant" upgrade cycle, as the iPhone 4 is nearly 15 months old. The poll found that 66 percent of existing iPhone users are very or somewhat likely to buy the iPhone 5, which indicates Apple could see a large number of upgraders.



    The survey also found strong demand for the next iPhone at carriers Sprint and T-Mobile, where more than 50 percent of subscribers said they are either significantly or somewhat more likely to buy the iPhone if available. Last month, The Wall Street Journal reported that Sprint would offer the iPhone 5 alongside AT&T and Verizon in October.



    Because of the survey's indication that iPhone 5 demand is high, Abramsky has raised his estimated fiscal 2012 iPhone sales to 110 million, up from 105 million. He sees Apple selling 27 million iPhones in the first quarter of fiscal 2012 alone.



    The survey also asked respondents about the iPad, and the results show utter dominance for Apple, with 85 percent of all tablet buyers planning to buy the iPad. That's up from 82 percent in February.







    The survey data also shows strong back-to-school buying for the iPad 2, as 26 percent of respondents said they are very or somewhat likely to buy Apple's second-generation tablet. Accordingly, Abramsky has also increased his iPad sales estimate for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2011 to 12.5 million.



    RBC Capital Markets sees Apple earning $110 billion in revenue in fiscal 2011, growing to $140 billion in revenue the following year, and $167 billion by fiscal 2013. It has a $500 price target for AAPL stock.



    The big elephant is the Chinese market. If the iPhone5 uses the QCOM 3G/CDMA world chip set, then China Unicom and China Telecom could deploy the the new iPhone. Besides the contract terms, the limiting factor is the production capacity. No word of the TD-SCDMA iPhone or the 600M subs China Mobile network. I suspect all this will happen in 2012 and lead to sustainable growth.
  • nealgnealg Posts: 132member
    As an Apple shareholder, it doesn't matter if the iPhone is considered "cool". As long as the sell through is hot, that is all that matters.

    Nuff said
  • cvaldes1831cvaldes1831 Posts: 1,832member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AjitMD View Post


    The big elephant is the Chinese market. If the iPhone5 uses the QCOM 3G/CDMA world chip set, then China Unicom and China Telecom could deploy the the new iPhone



    China Unicom has been an official iPhone carrier for a couple of years.
  • doggonedoggone Posts: 103member
    Count me in. My 2 year contact is up. All of us who bought the 3GS and haven't upgraded yet are waiting for the iP5 to come out.
  • cvaldes1831cvaldes1831 Posts: 1,832member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by airnerd View Post


    When everyone is used to a yearly refresh, and then have to wait longer there will be a lot of pent up demand. I sure hope AAPL doesn't get used to all this hype and start waiting longer between refreshes.



    Nah, iPhone sales are on the increase, meaning they are attracting new business. That's why the last quarter, they sold a record 20 million iPhones: new customers.



    Same deal with Macs. Sales to first-time buyers is a major driver of growth. Something like half of the Mac sales in bricks-and-mortar Apple Stores are to first-time Mac buyers.



    When Apple releases their fifth-generation iPhone, a lot of those buyers will be new.



    Go read Apple's SEC filings, the sales numbers are there.
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