IDC: Kindle Fire to push iPad below 60% market share in Q4

Posted:
in iPad edited January 2014
Amazon's Kindle Fire tablet will take share away from Apple this quarter, cutting the iPad's share of the market to 59 percent, a new analysis claims.



Though Apple has regained ground from Android-based tablets in recent quarters, market research firm IDC believes the iPad's share of the market will slide in the December quarter due to gains from low-end tablets from Amazon and Barnes & Noble. The firm estimated that the iPad held on to a 61.5 percent worldwide market share in the third quarter, while expecting that number to dip below the 60 percent mark next quarter.



According to IDC, HP jumped up to second place in the tablet market in the third quarter, capturing a quick 5 percent share. Its presence was short-lived, though since the PC maker cleared out inventory after deciding to cancel the device just months after its release. Samsung came in third with a 5.6 percent share of the tablet market. Barnes & Noble's Nook Color took the fourth spot with 4.5 percent and Asus came in fifth with 4 percent share.



Google's Android OS saw a dip in total market share in the third quarter, down to 32.4 percent from 33.2 percent in the second quarter, but IDC sees Kindle Fire sales driving the platform past the 40 percent mark in the December quarter.



"Amazon and Barnes & Noble are shaking up the media tablet market, and their success helps prove that there is an appetite for media tablets beyond Apple's iPad," said IDC's Tom Mainelli, research director, Mobile Connected Devices.



A number of analysts have begun revising their iPad estimates on the assumption that Apple's tablet growth will be impacted by the Kindle Fire. Canaccord Genuity recently cut its iPad forecast by one million units in light of the Fire's strong launch. Amazon revealed on Thursday that it had sold millions of the device, which has been the online retailer's best-selling product for weeks now.



Mainelli does believe, however, that Apple is still set to have its best quarter ever during the period. According to him, Apple will also make gains with its iPad in the enterprise and education markets in 2012.



IDC analyst Jennifer Song viewed Apple's head start on tablet-specific apps, future iPad versions and expanding retail presence in Asia as helping the company to maintain its "global leadership," but she predicted Android will gain on its competitor in the near future.



"An improving Android OS experience and lower competitor pricing in an environment with worldwide economic concerns should help Android to increase its market share," she said.
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Comments

  • mac.worldmac.world Posts: 340member
    It baffles me how POS tablets and ereaders using Android or forks of Android sitting on store shelves account for "market share".



    So if Microsoft threw together some piece of plastic that had Windows 7 on it and stored 100 million of them in a warehouse, but sold 100,000 of them, they'd have 50% market share?
  • esummersesummers Posts: 871member
    I guess if we are calling the Kindle FIre a tablet, we might as well call the iPhone and iPod Touch tablets too. The Kindle Fire is just an oversized non-tablet Android device right? It isn't running Ice Cream Sandwich after all. It is just running the small form factor operating system.
  • mdriftmeyermdriftmeyer Posts: 6,799member
    The amount of stock manipulation as if it's ``competition'' that has yet to impact sales is getting real old.



    Wall Street continues to begrudgingly despise Apple.
  • sflocalsflocal Posts: 3,383member
    Nice spin on words. The Fire is essentially going to decimate the Android tablet market, which is already filled with cheap junk. The Fire is among its own kind.



    The iPad market will continue to hum along. It's the gold-standard. Kindle owners will some day want to upgrade to a more usable product and will see the value that the iPad has.



    I'm just aching to see the wasteland that hopefully will develop quickly to put all the other POS tablet makers out of business.
  • red oakred oak Posts: 522member
    I would argue that the Fire is so modified that should not be considered Android. Amazon took the core Android code and completely re-written the UI layer and in turn removed all the Google services. Google makes ~ $0 from Fire sales



    The jury is out if selling the Fire at a lose is a sustainable strategy. Amazon is likely losing $30 to $40 for every Fire sold at retail stores
  • michael scripmichael scrip Posts: 1,847member
    Does "market share" describe only the about the amount of tablets sold in a single quarter?



    Let's not forget there are already 40 million iPads in people's hands right now... (plus another 15 million to be sold this Holiday quarter)
  • drdoppiodrdoppio Posts: 1,132member
    And, if people would base their purchases solely on quality and features, next quarter should belong to the Asus Transformer Prime instead. However, inertia and price will likely cause the current best sellers to keep their positions.



    I wonder what will happen when Amazon starts selling the Kindle Fire internationally...
  • bodypainterbodypainter Posts: 76member
    The problem is easy to solve: apple should rename the ipod touch to ipad mini. It acually has a similar 'inside' anyway. Then the sales of both mega-sellers count together.



    Kindle fire will be very sucessful, because it's the ultimate kindle for many - and they sold many kindles so far. But the ipad is far more than a kindle.
  • maccherrymaccherry Posts: 924member
    BS story.
  • nairbnairb Posts: 253member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Red Oak View Post


    I would argue that the Fire is so modified that should not be considered Android. Amazon took the core Android code and completely re-written the UI layer and in turn removed all the Google services. Google makes ~ $0 from Fire sales



    The jury is out if selling the Fire at a lose is a sustainable strategy. Amazon is likely losing $30 to $40 for every Fire sold at retail stores



    There are more recent figures on Fire costs which is estimated to be around $200 per device to make. So they are probably losing $1 per device. Amazon only need to sell three songs or half a book to make that up.



    But you are right about Fire not being real android. I think it should be classed as a breakaway and figures kept seperately for both OSes.
  • sipsip Posts: 210member
    iPad isn't part of the "tablet market" -- it's in a market of its own called the iPad market where it has 100% domination.



    The Kindle Fire isn't a tablet either -- it is an Amazon Shopping device and should have been named "Amazon Mall" or something.



    The Kindle Fire is apparently experiencing good sales but also a high return rate -- at what point do these returns get deducted from original sales figures?



    Lumped in with the "tablet market", Apple earns the highest revenue from iPad sales -- how are sales of Amazon's Fire going to be accounted for, given that most in the industry believe it is being sold below cost? For example, if someone buys something using the Fire, will a certain percentage of that sale be attributed to the use of the Fire, say $0.05 for each $ spend? Or will Amazon take a hit every year just to get the Fire out there? Or be forced to raise the price at some point in the near future?
  • asciiascii Posts: 5,363member
    I think it's too new to make predictions like that, but let's see.



    Apple are doing the hard yards necessary to keep iOS in front, such as content details on the legal side and hi-dpi displays and Siri on the tech side. They are not shying away from hard problems, which I think bodes well for the long termness of the iDevices.
  • nvidia2008nvidia2008 Posts: 9,262member
    If the Kindle is classified as a tablet then the iPad is classified as a PC.



    I'm fine with Kindle being a tablet, and iPad being a tablet. But iPad is also a PC. End of story.



    Click Like if you agree (oh, wait...)



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by sip View Post


    iPad isn't part of the "tablet market" -- it's in a market of its own called the iPad market where it has 100% domination.



    The Kindle Fire isn't a tablet either -- it is an Amazon Shopping device and should have been named "Amazon Mall" or something.



    The Kindle Fire is apparently experiencing good sales but also a high return rate -- at what point do these returns get deducted from original sales figures?



    Lumped in with the "tablet market", Apple earns the highest revenue from iPad sales -- how are sales of Amazon's Fire going to be accounted for, given that most in the industry believe it is being sold below cost? For example, if someone buys something using the Fire, will a certain percentage of that sale be attributed to the use of the Fire, say $0.05 for each $ spend? Or will Amazon take a hit every year just to get the Fire out there? Or be forced to raise the price at some point in the near future?



  • michael scripmichael scrip Posts: 1,847member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Nairb View Post


    There are more recent figures on Fire costs which is estimated to be around $200 per device to make. So they are probably losing $1 per device. Amazon only need to sell three songs or half a book to make that up.



    But you are right about Fire not being real android. I think it should be classed as a breakaway and figures kept seperately for both OSes.



    Yeah... if Amazon sells a few songs or books... that gets them back up to ZERO.



    Apps, books and music simply aren't big profit makers.



    I guess they are counting on people paying $80 a year for Prime... and ordering all their things from Amazon.



    That's been Amazon's deal all along... they sell other people's stuff to make a tiny profit.



    If you buy a Sony TV from Amazon... Sony gets most of that money...



    But Prime can't be a big money-maker either. Amazon is footing the bill for all that "free" shipping you get. Plus all the licensing fees they must be paying for all that "free" content you get with Amazon Prime.



    I guess they'll make it up in volume!
  • mobiusstripmobiusstrip Posts: 12member
    This is what happens when you take a handheld Unix computer and cripple it so obscenely that a dinky E-reader can compete with it.



    Apple is getting what it deserves, for idiotically hampering developers from doing most of what you'd expect an $800 portable computer to do. You know, crazy things like legitimate I/O, syncing data between apps and counterpart apps on the computer, proper Bluetooth support, access to the dock port...



    Apple doesn't learn. They witnessed the demise of DRM, but learned nothing from it. When the stupidest executives on the planet (record-company execs) can learn something like that, you're a total disgrace if you keep pursuing anti-customer and anti-developer policies the way Apple does.



    Apple has always stuck its head in the sand and pretended not to know what it needs to do to compete. Well, it's time to pull your head out of your ass, Apple.
  • 2oh12oh1 Posts: 474member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by sflocal View Post


    The Fire is essentially going to decimate the Android tablet market, which is already filled with cheap junk. The Fire is among its own kind.



    I agree. How can Android tablets compete with an Amazon tablet sold below cost? To get anywhere even close in price, they're going to have to be REALLY low quality.
  • tubbyteetubbytee Posts: 68member
    it will be interesting to see what the numbers for kindle will look like then. and please stop calling it a tablet. an archos media player has more functionality.
  • xsamplexxsamplex Posts: 214member
    With personal computers, Apple decided on exclusivity and price over market share, and Windows won the war. Hopefully (at least for them) they will not let the same thing happen with tablets. Should Amazon come out with a 10" fire for $350, does Apple respond? Or do they stubbornly stick with the high price for high quality model and watch the majority of buyers go for value?
  • fuwafuwafuwafuwa Posts: 163member
    We should add new category, NetTablet for cheap disposable Android tablet.
  • jontepontejonteponte Posts: 57member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Michael Scrip View Post


    Yeah... if Amazon sells a few songs or books... that gets them back up to ZERO.



    Apps, books and music simply aren't big profit makers.



    I guess they are counting on people paying $80 a year for Prime... and ordering all their things from Amazon.



    That's been Amazon's deal all along... they sell other people's stuff to make a tiny profit.



    If you buy a Sony TV from Amazon... Sony gets most of that money...



    But Prime can't be a big money-maker either. Amazon is footing the bill for all that "free" shipping you get. Plus all the licensing fees they must be paying for all that "free" content you get with Amazon Prime.



    I guess they'll make it up in volume!



    It's much worse. Total bill of materials for the Fire is slightly higher than they sell for but that is only what they cost to MAKE. Then there are additional costs of marketing. packaging distribution and so on... Probably at least another $50. On top of that Amazon have razor thin margins on most of what they sell. The turnover is in the billions but the profit is only millions (single digit margins) so to start making money of of the fire they would have to sell content for hundreds of dollars to just break eaven. Someone has done the numbers and i think it was around $1250 or so...



    If they want to make what Apple is making just on the iPad *hardware* (no content) they would need to add another $150 to that. Making the revenue they would have to make per Fire something around $5000.



    Makes Apples current strategy look a bit more attractive right?



    And remember, this is without any content revenue on the iPad.
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