IDC: Kindle Fire to push iPad below 60% market share in Q4

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  • bestkeptsecretbestkeptsecret Posts: 1,368member
    Considering the fact that Amazon is a publicly traded company, do they have a legal obligation to declare to investors how much money is made from each stream? Can they simply say that they made an overall profit of $x or do they have to declare the money made from their tablet sales and other sales?



    If they do declare their profits/ losses based on tablets then there may a better idea as to how many are sold. At the same time, they would not subtract a sale if there was a return, so how does that figure out?
  • michael scripmichael scrip Posts: 1,830member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Jonteponte View Post


    It's much worse. Total bill of materials for the Fire is slightly higher than they sell for but that is only what they cost to MAKE. Then there are additional costs of marketing. packaging distribution and so on... Probably at least another $50. On top of that Amazon have razor thin margins on most of what they sell. The turnover is in the billions but the profit is only millions (single digit margins) so to start making money of of the fire they would have to sell content for hundreds of dollars to just break eaven. Someone has done the numbers and i think it was around $1250 or so...



    If they want to make what Apple is making just on the iPad *hardware* (no content) they would need to add another $150 to that. Making the revenue they would have to make per Fire something around $5000.



    Makes Apples current strategy look a bit more attractive right?



    And remember, this is without any content revenue on the iPad.



    So true.



    Amazon and Apple definitely have different strategies with regards to tablets.



    Amazon sells the Kindle Fire at a loss... and the only profit they (hope to) get is from apps, music, videos, books, etc.



    While Apple sells the iPad at a decent profit... and gets additional money from apps, music, videos, books, etc.



    Surely someone at Amazon has thought this through



    But hey... Amazon has always been the king of high-volume, low-margin sales.
  • michael scripmichael scrip Posts: 1,830member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by BestKeptSecret View Post


    Considering the fact that Amazon is a publicly traded company, do they have a legal obligation to declare to investors how much money is made from each stream? Can they simply say that they made an overall profit of $x or do they have to declare the money made from their tablet sales and other sales?



    If they do declare their profits/ losses based on tablets then there may a better idea as to how many are sold. At the same time, they would not subtract a sale if there was a return, so how does that figure out?



    Amazon has kept quiet about e-ink Kindle sales for years.



    Who knows if they will start talking now.



    Someday the plan of losing money on the hardware with the hopes of making it up in content might backfire on them.



    Turns out... most people don't pay for stuff. People might just use their Kindle Fire for web browsing.... for free. Whoops.



    Amazon might have to disclose their financials if they ever get in trouble.
  • lkrupplkrupp Posts: 3,657member
    As with the iPhone the iPad may indeed lose market share yet continue to see wild growth in sales. Somehow lack of market share translates to declining sales and failure in the minds of some people. This is not the case for iOS devices of course, but the mindset is there apparently. And market share does not appear to be encouraging developers to flock to Android according to recent reports, Eric Schmidt's RDF not withstanding. The accepted importance of market share by the pundits has never seemed to apply to Apple but the "Apple is falling behind" mantra, even in the face of double digit sales growth, is out there for investors to chew on.



    I don't understand this. Do any of you?
  • morkymorky Posts: 164member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by MobiusStrip View Post


    Apple doesn't learn. They witnessed the demise of DRM, but learned nothing from it.



    Just that one sentence is proof you don't know anything about Apple or even their recent history. The end of DRM in music was pushed for by Apple, beginning with Jobs' open letter on DRM in 2007. EMI then let the way with DRM-free music on the iTunes store. The rest of the music industry then tried to give Amazon a leg up by offering DRM-free music to them before Apple, but the tactic failed and Apple got DRM-free access within a year.



    You'd still be downloading sabotaged MP3s on BearShare if not for Apple getting the music industry to wake up.
  • gatorguygatorguy Posts: 14,138member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Michael Scrip View Post


    Amazon has kept quiet about e-ink Kindle sales for years.



    Who knows if they will start talking now.



    Tho not breaking it down by specific model, Amazon did offer a press release a couple days back bragging of over one million kindle devices sold per week since the Fire was released.
  • morkymorky Posts: 164member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by xSamplex View Post


    With personal computers, Apple decided on exclusivity and price over market share, and Windows won the war. Hopefully (at least for them) they will not let the same thing happen with tablets. Should Amazon come out with a 10" fire for $350, does Apple respond? Or do they stubbornly stick with the high price for high quality model and watch the majority of buyers go for value?



    They only won the war if you think the war lasted just 15 years. History is long. Even in corporate IT, Windows is losing its grip. As more business apps go HTML5 for their interfaces, platform lock-in will continue to fade. I'm not even saying that Apple wins that battle in the long, long term, but Windows certainly hasn't won the war.
  • conrailconrail Posts: 489member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Michael Scrip View Post


    That's been Amazon's deal all along... they sell other people's stuff to make a tiny profit.



    If you buy a Sony TV from Amazon... Sony gets most of that money...



    But Prime can't be a big money-maker either. Amazon is footing the bill for all that "free" shipping you get. Plus all the licensing fees they must be paying for all that "free" content you get with Amazon Prime.



    I guess they'll make it up in volume!



    You know, Amazon is a retailer, and that's pretty much how retail works. Margins are often razor thin.



    As for Prime, I suspect it's kinda like a gym membership. For every person who uses the service daily, there are 5 who use it once and forget about it.
  • jragostajragosta Posts: 10,473member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Nairb View Post


    There are more recent figures on Fire costs which is estimated to be around $200 per device to make. So they are probably losing $1 per device. Amazon only need to sell three songs or half a book to make that up.



    I really wish people would stop posting incorrect information - and learn something about business finances before posting at all.



    The figures you're referring to say that the bill of materials is $200. That does not include any other costs - packaging, shipping, quality costs, rework costs, assembly labor, plant overhead, miscellaneous materials (tape, solder, connectors, etc), tech support costs, license fees. Those costs probably add at least $50 a unit.



    In addition, there are all the indirect costs that have to be amortized over the number of units sold. The cost to modify Android. Design costs. Marketing costs. Sales costs. Management overhead.



    From the revenue side, they don't get to count the entire cost of the songs or books they sell. First 70% goes to the author, so Amazon only keeps 30%. From that 30%, they need to pay for the infrastructure to handle the electronic distribution. What is left is gross margin which can be applied to subsidize the Fire sale. For Apple, the profit on iTunes sales is close to zero. Let's assume that Amazon is more efficient than Apple in this regard, but it is unlikely that they can apply more than 10% of the sale price toward the subsidy. So if they lose $50 per unit (to be conservative), they need $500 in media sales JUST TO BREAK EVEN.



    And break even isn't the point. They could break even by not doing anything. Most companies expect to make a profit - which would typically require a net gross margin in the 15-30% range. So they really have to sell a couple thousand dollars worth of media per Fire to make a decent return.



    Amazon needs to sell a lot more than 3 songs or books to make that.
  • gatorguygatorguy Posts: 14,138member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by jragosta View Post


    I really wish people would stop posting incorrect information - and learn something about business finances before posting at all..



    Trying to guess what Amazon actually paid for each Fire doesn't make that figure a fact.



    Did Amazon get a big discount since they were willing to use the old basic Playbook platform instead of starting from scratch? Is the iSuppli component pricing verified/adjusted based on quantities purchased for a particular device build? How much profit does Amazon see from a typical e-book purchase? Is it more or less percentage-wise than what they realize from hard products? Is Amazon getting related advertising revenue from clicks in their Silk browser? Is Amazon better at controlling packaging/handling costs than Apple or getting better shipping terms? Is Amazon getting a better hardware deal because they were willing to pay upfront? Do they get a more favorable price because of volume commitments, just as some here claim Apple does? Even the build estimates from various sources swing nearly 40% from either extreme ($150 to around $210, and there may even be higher ones). Which ones are somewhat accurate?



    If you don't know the factual answers to most of those questions, then you're making your best educated estimate whether Amazon is making a profit or losing a boatload every time they sell one. Stating as a fact that Amazon is losing at least x-number of dollars on hardware, or needs to sell x-volume of content to break even is all good guessing at best.
  • nvidia2008nvidia2008 Posts: 9,262member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by MobiusStrip View Post


    This is what happens when you take a handheld Unix computer and cripple it so obscenely that a dinky E-reader can compete with it.



    Apple is getting what it deserves, for idiotically hampering developers from doing most of what you'd expect an $800 portable computer to do. You know, crazy things like legitimate I/O, syncing data between apps and counterpart apps on the computer, proper Bluetooth support, access to the dock port...



    Apple doesn't learn. They witnessed the demise of DRM, but learned nothing from it. When the stupidest executives on the planet (record-company execs) can learn something like that, you're a total disgrace if you keep pursuing anti-customer and anti-developer policies the way Apple does.



    Apple has always stuck its head in the sand and pretended not to know what it needs to do to compete. Well, it's time to pull your head out of your ass, Apple.



    Heh. This is what happens when you take a handheld Unix computer (i.e., one of the most rock-solid operating systems ever made, without the IP encumbrance of Java) and make it easy to use for the masses. This is what happens when "IT" becomes "I" and what "I" want to do with it, not some geek telling me I should install this or tweak that or scan something unintelligible. Where doing something doesn't mean having to "call IT" or "check with my computer guy".



    Legitimate I/O? That's called cloud storage. Otherwise even if you don't use the cloud there's plenty of wired and wireless transfer options. USB thumb drives seem positively ancient now. USB drives are now the equivalent of when 5.25" floppies went bye-bye. Syncing data between apps? Again, cloud and Dropbox, wireless iTunes, Airplay, etc. Dock port? Nice for charging. For everything else, well, that's what Macs are for, not iPads. Not at this stage, but stay tuned.



    There are some things you no longer need a Mac to do. The list grows day by day.



    Apple learnt a lot. They are significantly responsible FOR the demise of DRM. iTunes Match will essentially grant a amnesty for massive amounts of pirated music. There's literally no other major tech company out there that has been as pro-customer and pro-developer as Apple. Just wait for the Siri API to open up.



    Apple knows what it needs to do to compete, and that is to make products and software that works well within a controlled but not ridiculously-confied system.



    Guess who's anti-customer? Try playing back YouTube on Xbox360's latest updates. Firstly, it took years to get YouTube on your console. Secondly, you need to PAY ie. Xbox Live GOLD. Still, Xbox360 gaming is light years beyond trying to game on a PC nowadays.
  • mactacmactac Posts: 313member
    My wife works in education as an instructional coach (helping teachers be better is the simplest way to describe her job). The district is considering buying them iPads. My wife says that the iPad is overkill for their needs.



    If you know you aren't going to need and use all the features of the iPad and you are looking to control expenditures then one of those other tablet like devices might be the correct choice.



    Kind of like why buy a car that can go 200 mph when you know you are only going to drive 75?



    Of course some of the people want the iPad just because it is the coolest thing out there. Even though they don't make sense in this instance. These are the type of people you don't want in charge of spending the taxpayer money the district runs on.
  • sdw2001sdw2001 Posts: 16,121member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by MacTac View Post


    My wife works in education as an instructional coach (helping teachers be better is the simplest way to describe her job). The district is considering buying them iPads. My wife says that the iPad is overkill for their needs.



    If you know you aren't going to need and use all the features of the iPad and you are looking to control expenditures then one of those other tablet like devices might be the correct choice.



    Kind of like why buy a car that can go 200 mph when you know you are only going to drive 75?



    Of course some of the people want the iPad just because it is the coolest thing out there. Even though they don't make sense in this instance. These are the type of people you don't want in charge of spending the taxpayer money the district runs on.



    You clearly have no idea what you're talking about.
  • digitalclipsdigitalclips Posts: 15,032member
    As others have said ... what the heck have Kindle Fire sales got to do with iPad 2 sales figures. They are not in the same product category and if they are then so are iPhones and iPods. Just silliness for the sake of attention grabbing headlines. You might as well have a report stating that world wide sales of bicycles are pushing BMW motorbike sales lower on a graph somewhere.
  • digitalclipsdigitalclips Posts: 15,032member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SDW2001 View Post


    You clearly have no idea what you're talking about.



    Worse that him not knowing what he is talking about, his wife is clearly a useless teacher with zero understanding of the potential of a interactive system such as the iPad offers for education. She is limiting the concept to an alternative for a reading device. Sad, very sad such people are allowed near children.
  • fecklesstechguyfecklesstechguy Posts: 501member
    Analysts have forever been obtuse about technology. If it looks like a PC and acts like a PC then it must be a PC, even if its primary purpose is to make toast.



    Likewise, the Fire is functionally an enhanced e-reader in a tablet format. The lockdown of function, the tethering of services means it is not the same class of device as the iPad (or the TouchPad, or the Xoom, Transformer, Iconia, Archos 101 or Thrive for that matter). Comparisons serve no purpose but to point out that significant difference - except to those completely baffled by the superficial resemblance.
  • focherfocher Posts: 496member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by MobiusStrip View Post


    This is what happens when you take a handheld Unix computer and cripple it so obscenely that a dinky E-reader can compete with it.



    Apple is getting what it deserves, for idiotically hampering developers from doing most of what you'd expect an $800 portable computer to do. You know, crazy things like legitimate I/O, syncing data between apps and counterpart apps on the computer, proper Bluetooth support, access to the dock port...



    Apple doesn't learn. They witnessed the demise of DRM, but learned nothing from it. When the stupidest executives on the planet (record-company execs) can learn something like that, you're a total disgrace if you keep pursuing anti-customer and anti-developer policies the way Apple does.



    Apple has always stuck its head in the sand and pretended not to know what it needs to do to compete. Well, it's time to pull your head out of your ass, Apple.



    Three things.



    1. The Kindle Fire is also a handheld Unix device.

    2. The paradigm in the smartphone tablet space is universally the same - locked down controlled access to the hardware and in the software layer. One can argue the pros and cons of that approach, but it's not an Apple specific approach.

    3. Your armchair management aside, I think there's quite a consensus that Apple knows how to compete ... and has succeeded quite well at it.



    Apple solved its market share problem quite a few years ago. They decided it was more important to secure revenue and profits instead of market share. If market share follows (which it increasingly seems to do) then so be it.
  • conradjoeconradjoe Posts: 1,887member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Mac.World View Post


    So if Microsoft threw together some piece of plastic that had Windows 7 on it and stored 100 million of them in a warehouse, but sold 100,000 of them, they'd have 50% market share?



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by esummers View Post


    I guess if we are calling the Kindle FIre a tablet, we might as well call the iPhone and iPod Touch tablets too.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Red Oak View Post


    I would argue that the Fire is so modified that should not be considered Android.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by maccherry View Post


    BS story.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by sip View Post


    iPad isn't part of the "tablet market" -- it's in a market of its own called the iPad market where it has 100% domination.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post


    As others have said ... what the heck have Kindle Fire sales got to do with iPad 2 sales figures. They are not in the same product category and if they are then so are iPhones and iPods.







    I love this place. Especially when facts are mentioned. Facts are to be spun here, and not accepted.
  • focherfocher Posts: 496member
    The problem with these types of predictions is that they ignore Apple's historical approach. There is a strong possibility Apple will follow the strategy the followed in the iPhone segment, which is to continue with prior generation versions at lower price points. Imagine an iPad 2 at $250 or $299. It makes consideration of a Nook or Kindle Fire even more unlikely.
  • herbapouherbapou Posts: 2,172member
    Since Amazon is selling just over 1 million per week in the US alone, when they go internationnal they will probably sell more Kindle than Apple is selling ipads.



    But I just dont get there business model: folks are buying it because its very cheap and I am not sure they are the kind of people who will spend a lot in the ecosystem. Apple has a client base that spends a lot, on top of this Apple is taking a 30% cut and Itunes sales only returns about 8 billions per year out of 100+ billions in revenu.



    The Amazon stock is trading at 100 P/E. Do not touch that thing, its going to crash at some point just like netflix.



    One thing is sure, people dont want to pay prices that are almost the same of the ipad for an android tablet. On the other hand, there is an hunger for cheap tablets sold buy "known" manufacturers.
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