The next ten years of Mac OS X

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  • braden99braden99 Posts: 45member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Corrections View Post


    The difference between Macs and WP7 is that while both have minority market share, the Macintosh platform is big enough and in the right places to support nearly 5 million +$1000, highly profitable computer unit sales per quarter for Apple. The Mac platform is also important enough to have substantial backing from nearly all major desktop OS developers. It also has an installed base of 60 million users.



    That's all very small compared to Windows PC makers in total (+1 billion installed base), but Macs are far more profitable that PC sales, so much so that Apple now makes more money than HP and Dell and Microsoft and is worth more, despite selling a fraction of their partial component units of the PC.



    Now look at WP7. You can say its a nice product, but that doesn't matter if it's not actually selling units. Microsoft's mobile market share was once nearly 15% or so. WM6 is still around 2-5% (and declining rapidly) while WP7 has barely achieved a 1% blip of smartphone sales, not enough to generate substantial profits for MS or its licensees. It's also not progressing as quickly as iOS (or even Android) and lacks the "mind share" of either, making it very unlikely that things are going to flip around and suddenly become a viable platform. It's far more likely to fade away like the Zune.



    Additionally, this is a story about Apple's next decade of Mac/iOS software. You think WP7 will be around in any form in three years? That's debatable. Apple is clearly set to own tablets, ultra books and PCs costing more than $900 for several years.



    So yeah, that's a pretty vast difference in the status quo and future prospects for the Mac OS and WP7. No amount of comparing unrelated percentages refutes that reality.



    As I?m not a shareholder, like most consumers, I'll judge the difference on profit alone, not share price, with Apple making US$ 25.922 billion, and Microsoft making US$ 23.15 billion in 2011 (Wikipedia), not such a vast difference after all.



    Windows Phone 7.5 is a new platform, but I highly doubt it is only one percent of the market, I'm sure I have seen higher statistics than that, assuming they are even accurate. I expect an improvement in market share this year, especially near the end of the year (with Apollo and superphones, and tango and low-end phones). I don't see Microsoft leaving the sector, it's to important. The Zune was a closed harwarde solution, that wouldn't allow Microsoft to build a true open platform, following their Windows business model. There is a growing 'mind share' of people who have positive experiences with WP7.5, and enjoy the fresh interface.



    "Apple is clearly set to own tablets, ultra books and PCs costing more than $900 for several years."

    Yeah probably true, no matter how good Windows 8 is. But the overall statement I initially stick to. I believe Mac OSX, and Windows Phone 7.5 deserve more market share, but that's not for me to decide.

    I believe the market for PC's that cost more than US $900 is larger than you think...A lot of gamers, enthusiats and business people still buy mid to high end systems
  • braden99braden99 Posts: 45member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Mario View Post


    Sabertooth is also extinct, because it wasn't fit to survive...



    Haha yeah true, unless we bring them back

    Though they still wouldn't be fit to survive in today's world.

    Probably not the best product name
  • hypoluxahypoluxa Posts: 565member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by hittrj01 View Post


    Unless there is a major reworking of the underlying architecture of the OS, I don't see a true Mac OS 11 in the near future. The idea of Mac OS X, much like its little brother iOS, is that it is basically the same platform from one version to the next, with added features and refinement as time moves on. Mac OS 11, IMO, would be a complete rethinking of how computer operating systems actually operate, and thus would validate Apple's decision to name it as such.



    I agree. I think Apple will continue using OS X 10.8, .9 etc...for a little while longer unless like stated above they completely rework the OS and UI etc. I'm quite happy with it. Haven't updated to Lion yet, as there are no huge features that I really need. SL is treating me fine. Ill wait and see what 10.8 brings though. Or if get a new Mac before then and Lion is installed, then that's cool too.
  • fyngyrzfyngyrz Posts: 61member
    I offer this alternate view:



    Read it and see what you think. Then watch what happens with Apple's IOS, OS X, iPad and iPod.



    --Ben
  • hypoluxahypoluxa Posts: 565member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by fyngyrz View Post


    I offer this alternate view:



    Read it and see what you think. Then watch what happens with Apple's IOS, OS X, iPad and iPod.



    --Ben



    Some good stuff in there I would bet that will happen, just makes sense. Multicore, bigger storage, faster ram use for sure, that's where we are headed obviously. The 3D stuff, I'm not so sure about. That still seems a ways out maybe, as I don't see a rationale for it (yet) IMO. But who knows.
  • bigpicsbigpics Posts: 1,284member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Braden99 View Post


    Well I’m not sure what word to use instead of tiny, the statistics aren't there to give me a clear picture, but I know for a fact that Microsoft have sold over 500 million copies of Windows 7 since release. 400 million Windows based PC's are predicted to ship this year. Why is large corporate purchases a bad thing, obviosuly these companies trust in Microsoft's quality products.



    Not much to do with trust or quality, tho' I'll admit MS has made some strides in both.



    However, the big factors are:

    -Inertia. We've done it this way, we're doing it this way, we will continue to do it this way.

    -Compatibility with company developed in-house apps (which only have to support one platform - and corps lack Apple developers in the first place).

    -IT's historically ingrained cultural animosity toward OS X.

    -Short-term focus on this quarter's bottom line driving the purchase of $4-600 computers, despite studies showing Apple's lower TCO (total cost of ownership) over a machine's useful lifetime.

    -Large corporate sales and support forces.

    -And one Apple-like trait: Simplicity in the IT operations if everything is either Win Server or Win. I.e., easier diagnosis, less iterations of updates, fewer versions of apps to write, etc.



    And on the consumer side, all the big box and multiplicity of other retail and web outlets. And many watching their own bottom lines and limited incomes looking for laptops under $500 or even $400. For which they may have existing apps as well.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by PaulMJohnson View Post


    I think you're possibly mistaking the USA with the World. One of of every four consumer computer purchases in the world is almost certainly not an Apple, plus the Corporate world accounts for huge numbers of PC purchases, which Windows still dominates.



    I'd love it if Apple really were 25% of computer sales, but it's just not the case.



    Remember that the definition of "computers" is currently up for grabs. If I can do productivity, e-mail, chat, photo and movie editing, web-surfing, cloud-sync, etc., etc. on a device, that's certainly "a computer."



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Corrections View Post


    The difference between Macs and WP7 is that while both have minority market share, the Macintosh platform is big enough and in the right places to support nearly 5 million +$1000, highly profitable computer unit sales per quarter for Apple....



    ..That's all very small compared to Windows PC makers in total (+1 billion installed base), but Macs are far more profitable that PC sales, so much so that Apple now makes more money than HP and Dell and Microsoft and is worth more, despite selling a fraction of their partial component units of the PC.



    Now look at WP7. You can say its a nice product, but that doesn't matter if it's not actually selling units. Microsoft's mobile market share was once nearly 15% or so. WM6 is still around 2-5% (and declining rapidly) while WP7 has barely achieved a 1% blip of smartphone sales, not enough to generate substantial profits for MS or its licensees. It's also not progressing as quickly as iOS (or even Android) and lacks the "mind share" of either, making it very unlikely that things are going to flip around and suddenly become a viable platform. It's far more likely to fade away like the Zune.



    Additionally, this is a story about Apple's next decade of Mac/iOS software. You think WP7 will be around in any form in three years? That's debatable. Apple is clearly set to own tablets, ultra books and PCs costing more than $900 for several years.



    So yeah, that's a pretty vast difference in the status quo and future prospects for the Mac OS and WP7. No amount of comparing unrelated percentages refutes that reality.



    I was wondering how long it would take for someone to toss Apple's 90% share of $1000+ computers against MS/Intel/and the bunch's churning out of endless vanilla low-end PC's



    Profit market share, momentum, buzz, status and growth combined are at least as important as market unit share, especially at the scale Apple's finally achieved, however, MS is still positioned to be a profitable and relevant company in many areas for a long time to come. If you follow them seriously (which is much less entertaining than following Apple, unless you have an Enterprise and IT jones), the breadth of their products and development efforts is actually impressive.



    More important they go back and forth but are showing an overall trend to work nicely with Apple products, and are moving towards supporting and writing apps for iOS. The computing world of the future will still be multi-vendor in key ways.



    Nor have they given up entirely on the consumer. Their partnership with Ford on "Sync" is one example - and your iDevice is somewhat supported on Sync. Everyone talks about the "living room being the last frontier," but the car cabin is another important ubiquitous environment for many 10's of millions. And MS has the lead here.



    Also, tablet penetration is small in world terms, and Smart Phones are still a maturing market. Once the whole WP 8 ecosystem is out there, I still think there's a chance for MS to grab some consumer phone share from Android and some business tablet and phone market share from Apple, they could yet be a player in parts of the mobile market. Better news yet for Mr. Softie, Ballmer won't be around forever.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Braden99 View Post


    What about sabretooth? The best logical follow up, and the coolest looking cat of all



    If OS X is getting simpler and more iOS-like, and all the PC's and other devices are getting smaller, Savannah and Abyssinian have a nice ring if we're not done with cats.



    And then, LoLz, we could go the world of fiction: Grizabella, Sylvester, Garfield......
  • mactacmactac Posts: 315member
    I'm not as concerned with what the OS will be like as I am the type of computers Apple will build that uses it.
  • braden99braden99 Posts: 45member
    "Not much to do with trust or quality, tho' I'll admit MS has made some strides in both."

    Trust and quality is a personal user's opinon, I have not cosulted a slew of IT managers to query them on the differences, nor have you, but the sale figures are clear.

    "Inertia. We've done it this way, we're doing it this way, we will continue to do it this way."

    The same could be said of iOS, in the face of strides made with Windows Phone 7.5 - again the sales are the only truth, the rest is speculation.



    I believe the market for PC's that cost more than US $900 is larger than you think...A lot of gamers, enthusiats, artists, and business people still buy mid to high end desktop systems for a variety of reasons.

    I for one have a high end PC, from a few months ago that was significatly cheaper, but more importantly faster than any available Mac (+$3000 NZ, and yes I looked at all Mac's at the time).
  • xsamplexxsamplex Posts: 214member
    Windows 8 rewrites the rule book. Frantic innovation ahead by both companies. Linux, not so much.
  • firefly7475firefly7475 Posts: 1,499member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Prof. Peabody View Post


    For the last three years at least, one out of every four consumer computer purchases has been a Mac.



    You could make that subset even smaller and say ten out of every ten Mac computer purchases has been a Mac!.



    That sounds even better!
  • capnbobcapnbob Posts: 375member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Braden99 View Post


    As I’m not a shareholder, like most consumers, I'll judge the difference on profit alone, not share price, with Apple making US$ 25.922 billion, and Microsoft making US$ 23.15 billion in 2011 (Wikipedia), not such a vast difference after all.



    Windows Phone 7.5 is a new platform, but I highly doubt it is only one percent of the market, I'm sure I have seen higher statistics than that, assuming they are even accurate. I expect an improvement in market share this year, especially near the end of the year (with Apollo and superphones, and tango and low-end phones). I don't see Microsoft leaving the sector, it's to important. The Zune was a closed harwarde solution, that wouldn't allow Microsoft to build a true open platform, following their Windows business model. There is a growing 'mind share' of people who have positive experiences with WP7.5, and enjoy the fresh interface.



    "Apple is clearly set to own tablets, ultra books and PCs costing more than $900 for several years."

    Yeah probably true, no matter how good Windows 8 is. But the overall statement I initially stick to. I believe Mac OSX, and Windows Phone 7.5 deserve more market share, but that's not for me to decide.

    I believe the market for PC's that cost more than US $900 is larger than you think...A lot of gamers, enthusiats and business people still buy mid to high end systems



    The wonderful thing about the Apple money making machine is that last year (to September) it made $25Bn, but next year, it will make about $43Bn (to the analyst consensus (which is almost always absurdly conservative). MS will still make about $25-26Bn.



    The >$1000 market is what it is. It includes gamers and trustafarian nerds and all the people who buy expensive machines. And Apple owns that market. Since the corporate PC market collapsed in value (we used to pay $3000 for our T42 Thinkpads, now <$850 for T420s), Apple's share of industry revenue just increases. You can sell 400M PCs but if the margins are 1-5% (1% for Lenovo, 5% for HP), then its not a great business is it? That is why no-one tracks the value of the industry, because it would be pretty sick reading (e.g. netbooks gutted ASPs for zero margin). Hence HP trying to ditch PCs (in the most incompetent way ever). IBM were well shot of them 5 years ago. Tracking unit sales alone is like tracking the increasing weight of an overweight person as some proxy for being healthy.



    Apple has picked its price points and competes exceptionally well at each and every one. Where is hasn't gone, it has not found a way to make its desired margins. Without going head to head with MS or Google (on unit volumes), it will this year grow by way more than Google's entire revenue and be about 2x the size of MS by revenue. As far as the business of Apple is concerned, nerd-wars about OS's, devices and specs is just jibber jabber amongst the technoliterate classes - an utter market irrelevance.
  • braden99braden99 Posts: 45member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by xSamplex View Post


    Windows 8 rewrites the rule book. Frantic innovation ahead by both companies. Linux, not so much.



    Agreed Windows 8 looks like it's going to be great



    However focusing only on released products for the moment, what I have a problem with, is the way consumers like to simplify clear market share lead, with the best product.

    If the quality of a product was equal to its sales, than Windows 7 would be a many times greater product than Mac OSX, which is clearly not the case. Similarly iOS would be potentially many tens of times better a product than Windows Phone 7.5.



    Platform advocates can argue about many specifics, that pull there platform ahead for specific features and ideas, but the truth is both platforms exhibit similar quality and level of innovation. Which brings to question why are Windows and iOS disproportionately popular? Actually someone mentioned the word earlier "Inertia"; I believe this phenomenon defines the landscape of technology. Windows is a great product, but does not deserve as much success, but inertia put them in their current position. Similarly Microsoft allowed Apple to create inertia, and didn't respond fast enough, now any forward momentum, has to compete with very strong inertia on Apple's side.
  • tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 39,900member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Firefly7475 View Post


    You could make that subset even smaller and say ten out of every ten Mac computer purchases has been a Mac!.



    That sounds even better!



    Are you implying the consumer market doesn't matter?
  • bwikbwik Posts: 534member
    It used to be exciting when Apple used to focus on, you know. Computing.
  • pik80pik80 Posts: 148member
    "Apple will also continue its efforts to simplify away complexities in the computing world such as the conventional file system"



    Thank goodness. Hopefully the Finder will be replaced with something more like HoudahSpot, Punakea, etc. Maybe Apple should put out a new app for managing documents on the Mac App Store and as it becomes more refined replace the Finder with the new program.
  • braden99braden99 Posts: 45member
    Quote:

    The wonderful thing about the Apple money making machine



    Yeah I get it, Apple swim around in all their money. It's funny when I see Microsoft bitter fans on this site, still using "$icrosoft" as if it is still relevant and witty.



    My relationship with a company is solely based on the quality of their products, as with most consumers. Apple is not better just because they make more money, that's ridiculous. Like saying Microsoft has always been better, when they were making more money than Apple.



    I don't see any statistics to back up the low share of $1000 machines (or "gamers and trustafarian nerds" as you like to call them, but I know a lot of people with expensive traditional desktops machines. For instance how would statistic creators know the true system value of every store bought, and custom built PC in New Zealand? They wouldn't...



    As for the margins PC makers make, that's got nothing to do with Microsoft. But I believe it's natural for there to be winners, losers, and complainers in this price war, but ultimately the markets not going anywhere. Proprietary Mac's are not going to take over anytime some
  • firefly7475firefly7475 Posts: 1,499member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Braden99 View Post


    As I?m not a shareholder, like most consumers, I'll judge the difference on profit alone, not share price, with Apple making US$ 25.922 billion, and Microsoft making US$ 23.15 billion in 2011 (Wikipedia), not such a vast difference after all.



    I don't really think it matters in the context of the point you're trying to make (i.e. that both OSX and WPx deserve more sales).



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Braden99 View Post


    Windows Phone 7.5 is a new platform, but I highly doubt it is only one percent of the market, I'm sure I have seen higher statistics than that, assuming they are even accurate.



    They are low. Maybe not as low as 1%, but it's somewhere around that mark.



    If you want to look at the positive side there are three platforms showing growth. iOS, Android and WP.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Braden99 View Post


    I expect an improvement in market share this year, especially near the end of the year (with Apollo and superphones, and tango and low-end phones).



    This bit... I just don't know.



    I think the OEM's have shown very little love for WPx and the hardware is lacking when compared to both Android and Apple. Nokia may be able to turn this around (the Lumia 800 is beautiful).



    The OS itself it fantastic. It's superior to iOS in a couple of areas and inferior in others, but it's better than Android, Bada, Symbian and BB OS, period.



    So one might think that even though WPx won't really touch iOS, it could potentially take a chunk out of Android sales.. but the problem with that is that the carriers don't like WPx at all.



    They love Blackberry (because there are still some businesses that request them) they love iOS (because heaps of people come into stores asking for iPhones) and they love Android (because they can load it up with their crapware) and comparatively WPx doesn't really offer them much.



    You add to that the potential reaction from the carriers to what Microsoft may do with Skype (like integrate it into the People/Messaging hub; for those who don't know about WPx that's like the way iMessage works with SMS in iOS) and you can see the real potential for WPx to be pushed out of the market, at least in the US.
  • braden99braden99 Posts: 45member
    Quote:

    I don't really think it matters in the context of the point you're trying to make (i.e. that both OSX and WPx deserve more sales).



    WP7 and MacOSX deserve more market share because they clearly are competitive products, irrespective of the companies total profit.
  • firefly7475firefly7475 Posts: 1,499member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post


    Are you implying the consumer market doesn't matter?



    Nope.



    I'm implying that if someone wants to make Mac sales sound better by picking a subset of the PC market, then the best subset is pick is the percentage of Mac sales.



    I think quoting education marketshare in the US sounds good and quoting the US consumer marketshare sounds better, but quoting Mac market share sounds the best by far.



    Nothing looks better than 100%. They could even make a pie chart.
  • firefly7475firefly7475 Posts: 1,499member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Braden99 View Post


    WP7 and MacOSX deserve more market share because they clearly are competitive products, irrespective of the companies total profit.



    Well... yeah. That was what I was saying!
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