Strong sales of iPhone 4S a precursor to 'monster' launch of redesigned 'iPhone 5'

Posted:
in iPhone edited January 2014


With iPhone sales over the holiday quarter expected to exceed 30 million, despite the fact that the iPhone 4S features the same form factor as its predecessor, one analyst believes the launch of a completely redesigned next-generation iPhone later this year will be a "monster."



Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray sent a note to investors on Wednesday, in which he increased his projected iPhone sales for the just-concluded December quarter from 26 million to 30 million. He said that total remains conservative, as the latest domestic data from the NPD Group suggests sales could be as high as 34 million in the quarter.



But record setting iPhone sales aren't the biggest story for Apple, in Munster's eyes. Instead, he's looking toward the future, with a redesigned next-generation redesigned iPhone, which he believes is going to accelerate Apple's growth even further than the current iPhone 4S.



"If Apple sells 30 (million)-plus iPhones in Dec., with no new form factor, up from 17.1m in Sept., it would be evidence supporting our survey work indicating that 94% of iPhone users plan to upgrade to a new iPhone," Munster wrote. "This theme suggests iPhone 5, which we are expecting in Aug. with a new form factor, will be a monster upgrade."



Munster believes the iPhone will represent 48 percent of Apple's sales in the December quarter. Official earnings will be revealed by Apple after markets close on Tuesday, Jan. 24.



As for the iPad, Munster sees the touchscreen tablet taking up 21 percent of Apple's total sales, with 13.5 million units sold in the quarter. He said informal checks during the holiday shopping season showed iPad demand was up 68 percent year over year from similar checks performed in 2010. He believes Apple will launch a third-generation iPad in April.



Finally, Munster has forecast the Mac will account for 17 percent of Apple's sales in the December quarter. His estimates call for Apple to have sold 5.2 million units in the quarter, an increase of 25 percent year over year.











If his projections prove accurate, it would be a record quarter for all three of Apple's major product categories. Previous bests for the iPad and Mac came last quarter with sales of 11.2 million and 4.9 million, respectively, while the iPhone record was set in the June quarter with sales of 20.34 million handsets.



Piper Jaffray has maintained its "overweight" rating for AAPL stock, and reiterated that it is the firm's top pick for 2012 with a price target of $607. He believes Apple's revenue for the December quarter will be $40.19 billion, good for $10.50 earnings per share.

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Comments

  • tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 40,525member




    Yes, yes, redesign, yes, yes, 5" screen. Yes, yes, LTE. Yes, yes, wider, thinner, and with an aluminum back; let's get this all out of the way.



    Gotta space these threads out, guys. We have until October until it happens…



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


    …AAPL stock… … [has] a price target of $607.



    My target is $370 after the earnings call, but that's me.



    Quote:

    He believes Apple's revenue for the December quarter will be $40.19 billion, good for $10.50 earnings per share.



    Oh, great. Now I have to assume it'll go to $350…
  • irelandireland Posts: 15,718member
    3.7" screen. Same resolution. Same basic physical width of device.



    Happy shareholder : )
  • 29922992 Posts: 202member
    smack that: already got my 4S, so I'll let the rest of the world to wait&go for 5.
  • wizard69wizard69 Posts: 11,760member
    I'm really tired of the guys that write articles claiming that iPhone 4s is the same design as the 4. It is just plain ignorance folks and frankly Apple insider can do better. The phone has all of the following new: antenna, battery, processor, base band chips, GPS system, effectively all new electronics.



    As to a flat panel, how much innovation does one expect there? A little bigger a little smaller, a little brighter or a little darker, all nice to contemplate but they are not something that is as compelling as a the other new capabilities.



    As to iPhone 5 sorry guys but don't get wound up in the hype, it is a phone that sits in your pocket next to your best friend. Apple has already done the major moves to deliver innovation in this field, the rest is incremental improvements. And yes a larger screen is an incremental improvement.



    Really I don't understand why so many get so wrapped up in their cell phones. It is nothing more than a tool and frankly iPad beats it hands down in many ways. Gotta believe many have something missing in their personal life.
  • mjtomlinmjtomlin Posts: 1,559member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by 2992 View Post


    smack that: already got my 4S, so I'll let the rest of the world to wait&go for 5.



    Ditto. My skip generation as well.
  • island hermitisland hermit Posts: 6,217member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post




    Gotta space these threads out, guys. We have until October until it happens…



    I say Apple is back to the June announcement / July release. I often wonder if Apple waited until October for the 4S release so as to not have it on the market for long as Apple's top phone.



    2nd fiscal quarter announcement in April might tell us what to expect.



    I'd guess that Apple would want to get the full impact of a redesigned iPhone. Why bother with one monster quarter in 2012 when you could easily have two.



    We'll see.
  • tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 40,525member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by 2992 View Post


    ?5?



  • mickeymantlemickeymantle Posts: 94member
    the next time you'll see Apple's stock price at $370 is after a 2:1 stock split
  • menithingsmenithings Posts: 68member
  • crowleycrowley Posts: 4,632member
    I think it's possible and not altogether unlikely that the next iPhone will largely stick with the same form factor. I don't think Apple are in the habit of changing things for changes sake, and the design of the 4 and 4S still stands out head and shoulders above the market. There is no rule that says Apple changes the external design every two years.



    Bigger screen, different, but not better.

    Aluminium back, different, but not better.

    Any of the other stuff that routinely gets thrown out in the rumour wash, different, but not better.
  • solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Ireland View Post


    3.7" screen. Same resolution. Same basic physical width of device.



    Happy shareholder : )

    3.5" 3:2 = 5.65" sq

    3.7" 3:2 = 6.32" sq (11.8% more area)

    4.0" 3:2 = 7.69" sq (36.1% more area)

    Is 11% really worth wreaking havoc for Apple and 3rd-party devs?
  • dr millmossdr millmoss Posts: 5,403member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Crowley View Post


    I think it's possible and not altogether unlikely that the next iPhone will largely stick with the same form factor. I don't think Apple are in the habit of changing things for changes sake, and the design of the 4 and 4S still stands out head and shoulders above the market. There is no rule that says Apple changes the external design every two years.



    Bigger screen, different, but not better.

    Aluminium back, different, but not better.

    Any of the other stuff that routinely gets thrown out in the rumour wash, different, but not better.



    I agree, but in the consumer market, "different" often correlates to "better." Designs get changed because they've been around for a long time and look tired. A few live on to become "classics," but very few.
  • jsyedinakjsyedinak Posts: 34member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post


    I agree, but in the consumer market, "different" often correlates to "better." Designs get changed because they've been around for a long time and look tired. A few live on to become "classics," but very few.



    I agree that I think they need a refreshed look. I would personally like to see a thinner and bigger form-factor, though I don't want to spark a big debate here on this since I am sure its been hashed around many many many times before the 4S was released.
  • tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 40,525member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post


    Is 11% really worth wrecking havoc for Apple and 3rd-party devs?



    He specifically said to keep the resolution the same. I'm not sure it would affect much.



    What I don't understand is why people aren't just doing everything in VECTOR to begin with.



    Scribblenauts. On the DS. Great game. But on the iOS version? Everything is now vector based. It looks WONDERFUL and translates beautifully from the iPhone to the iPad.
  • jungmarkjungmark Posts: 6,163member
    The iphone 4S is barely 3 months old!
  • jpellinojpellino Posts: 563member
    Does anyone track if these analysts are accurate after the future actually happens?
  • solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post


    He specifically said to keep the resolution the same.



    Hence my comment on dimensions.



    Quote:

    What I don't understand is why people aren't just doing everything in VECTOR to begin with.



    Scribblenauts. On the DS. Great game. But on the iOS version? Everything is now vector based. It looks WONDERFUL and translates beautifully from the iPhone to the iPad.



    As Apple found when trying to add Resolution Independence a long time ago back in Tiger (maybe sooner) making everything distance vector simply isn't the most efficient way to use system resources. You can look at Mac OS and iOS icons to see different resolutions being used.
  • tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 40,525member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post


    Hence my comment on dimensions.



    Well? yes, but I don't see how it 'wreaks havoc' when nothing changes. I'm sure I'm missing something here.
  • solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post


    Well? yes, but I don't see how it 'wreaks havoc' when nothing changes. I'm sure I'm missing something here.



    It all changes. Apple wasn't even satisfied with Helvetica on iOS for the iPhone 4 with the 960x640 display that they used Helvetica Neue. And that was only doubling the resolution but keeping the dimensions the same. If you go with a larger size they will tweak it to make it ideal for that larger size. Older apps will look alight, and certainly better than what you see on Android, but they will update Xcode so you can idealize your app for the new dimensions.
  • applezillaapplezilla Posts: 941member
    Skipped 3G S for 4.



    Skipping 4S for 5.



    And duh, 'analysts.'
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