Apple closes at record high, confounding advice to sell at iPad launch

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Comments

  • digitalclipsdigitalclips Posts: 15,569member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Bageljoey View Post


    I hate to admit it, but I sold at $542 before the announcement. I didn't have a fortune in but i was long for 4 years and figured I should lock in some nice gain and wait for the illogical correction that always seems to happen when things are going well.

    I felt like a genius for about 26 hours! Now I'm like the kid at the playground sitting by himself watching all the other kids play a game...



    You could get back in, eat the loss and enjoy the ride to $1,000.
  • bageljoeybageljoey Posts: 1,719member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by quinney View Post


    Next time think about not buying or selling 100% of a position at once.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cvaldes1831 View Post


    Your blunder is that you sold it all. You should have sold half, kept half to hedge your bets.




    Quote:
    Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post


    You could get back in, eat the loss and enjoy the ride to $1,000.



    The three wise men!



    Of course, you are all right. Problem is, this started as "play around money" and AAPL annoyingly made it real money. I have house projects coming on line and expect to need this money this summer. Although I am still long on Apple (in theory now), no one knows what it will do day-to-day or even month-to-month. (Remember the annoying drop at the end of 2008 despite fantastic fundamentals?)

    I decided to lock in money that I was beginning to count on figuring that it had been on a good run and was likely to plateau for a bit--if not drop. HA! We all know how that turned out (up another 6 in pre-market today).

    I don't even know why I am still talking. I guess I'm trying to convince myself that there was a rational basis for throwing away $3K (and counting)...
  • hill60hill60 Posts: 6,965member
    Seventeen Dells.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


    Apple's market cap (the value of all outstanding shares in the company) is now greater than the market cap of Google, HP, RIM and Microsoft combined.



  • bandman999bandman999 Posts: 24member
    Giving stock advice based on perceived historical trends is like giving advice on roulette because "with this many blacks in a row, the next one is sure to be a red."



    As usual, in both cases, the party should stick to understanding the fundamentals and make their decisions based on that.
  • jragostajragosta Posts: 10,473member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Bandman999 View Post


    Giving stock advice based on perceived historical trends is like giving advice on roulette because "with this many blacks in a row, the next one is sure to be a red."



    Sure. But if you say it enough times, you'll eventually be right. And hen you can crow about your great 'prediction'.
  • huntercrhuntercr Posts: 140member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cws View Post


    The Motley Fool is just that: a motley fool. The value of APPL stock will rise or fall based on its earnings, not because some bozo at the Motley Fool wants to say something provocative in an attempt to drive traffic to his website. As anyone with half a brain can see upon looking at the facts, it is virtually certain that Apple will sell substantially more iPads, iPhones and Macs in each of the next 2 to 3 years. This will drive a dramatic increase in earnings, and because the P/E ratio of APPL stock remains at a ludicrously low level, the stock price can only go up.



    The problem with Motley Fool over the years is that it grew too fast once they introduced their fantasy market thing (CAPS) they seem to have lost their way a bit. They were one of the few resources on the net that was actually educating the novice to intermediate investor instead of dazzling them with $.49 trades, and "level 99" options.



    The problem is that real investing education... is... boring... and playing fantasy stock market is more interesting to the average dummy. There are far fewer articles on there than there used to be. The don't even bother tracking their original portfolios anymore.



    I'm not sure if "they" don't understand Apple since Fool.com has a lot of contracted writers now. There's not exactly one vision like there used to be.



    I still read them occasionally, but I wish they would get back to their ( presumably less profitable, but wiser ) roots.



    For me as an Apple shareholder, I won't even think about selling until I start getting negative answers to these questions:



    - Are Apple's products clearly the market leader?

    - Does the public view them as extremely desired?

    - Are they able to consistently keep margins above 25%?

    - Are the verticals succeeding in the public's eye and gaining membership YOY? ( App store, itunes store, Apple TV )



    Then I also consider these questions:



    - Are there any emerging products that outperform Apple devices in the Enterprise? ( you might find this strange since Apple doesn't care about the enterprise, but it matters to me on long term growth )

    - Are there any major lawsuits that do not go in Apple's favor that will lock them out of a region?

    - Are there signs that Apple is going viewed as a monopoly by regulators?

    - Are there any major social trends that might affect Apple's perception among the public?
  • jjjamesonjjjameson Posts: 69member
    Apple is up another 12 dollars today. Man, the people who shorted Apple on the Motley Fool's advice must be seriously pissed.
  • lkrupplkrupp Posts: 4,207member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by BUSHMAN4 View Post


    Anal-ists (no spelling error) encouraging people to sell, based on what premise.



    A personal bias axe to grind? Or they haven't caught on to the fact that Apple doesn't play by Wall Street's rules. Of course Apple will fall from its pedestal someday. All companies do eventually. But Steve Jobs and Apple will go down in business history. Remember the "Toyota Way" craze that swept through American business? We are at the beginning of the "Apple Way" and anal-ists don't get it.
  • lkrupplkrupp Posts: 4,207member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by JJJameson View Post


    Apple is up another 12 dollars today. Man, the people who shorted Apple on the Motley Fool's advice must be seriously pissed.



    Maybe some of them will sue their financial advisers for dereliction of duty.
  • lkrupplkrupp Posts: 4,207member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by hill60 View Post


    Seventeen Dells.



    We haven't heard much out of Mike lately have we?
  • bill42bill42 Posts: 79member
    I am the opposite of a stock expert, but I have been an apple guy since my dad brought home a mac SE in 1986. Recently I noticed that the 50% of my rolled over 401k that I put in AAPL was doing great, while the other funds were doing nothing. So a few weeks ago doubled my shares to 300 by selling my other stocks and funds putting all of that IRA money into apple. Every day I sit here as my account gains about $2000 a day, thinking "Holy cow this is FUN!" and yet I know it is dangerous to have my entire IRA in one stock. I plan to sell half at 700 and keep the rest long term.

    I probably am better at guessing Apple's stock performance better than a Motley Fool.
  • blah64blah64 Posts: 767member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by huntercr View Post


    The problem is that real investing education... is... boring... and playing fantasy stock market is more interesting to the average dummy.

    ...

    For me as an Apple shareholder, I won't even think about selling until I start getting negative answers to these questions:



    - Are Apple's products clearly the market leader?

    - Does the public view them as extremely desired?

    - Are they able to consistently keep margins above 25%?

    - Are the verticals succeeding in the public's eye and gaining membership YOY? ( App store, itunes store, Apple TV )



    Then I also consider these questions:



    - Are there any emerging products that outperform Apple devices in the Enterprise? ( you might find this strange since Apple doesn't care about the enterprise, but it matters to me on long term growth )

    - Are there any major lawsuits that do not go in Apple's favor that will lock them out of a region?

    - Are there signs that Apple is going viewed as a monopoly by regulators?

    - Are there any major social trends that might affect Apple's perception among the public?



    Great post. Investing is not "exciting". If it's exciting, you're probably not investing, but gambling. There's nothing wrong with gambling (as long as it's your own money and you can afford to lose it), but people need to know the difference.



    Your points/questions are great, and resemble the kinds of questions I constantly keep in the back of my mind as I watch Apple and the overall markets. 1b and 2d are very similar, but generally good points. Other stuff off the top of my head:



    * What is happening with the overall world economy? This can be hedged out, but it's relevant.

    * What does the (likely) product pipeline look like? (growth in new product areas, like possible TV)

    * Investor sentiment. This is psychology as much as analysis, but significant. Not altogether separate from consumer sentiment, but different enough to consider separately.

    * Alternative investments; at the end of the day, where else would I park this money? Are there other equities with better potential? Maybe, but they seem higher risk to me. Could I pay off the mortgage? Sure, but that's investment money that's costing me less than 5%/yr, and I feel AAPL is a better investment right now. At the levels I'm at, much of it could be considered gambling, but I'm able to weather significant ups and downs without hardship.

    * Management. Over the past 5 years I would rate management as *stellar*. Currently, I think they are still excellent, with one of the strongest overall executive management teams in the world for a company of their size, although losing Ron Johnson sucks. Jobs' untimely death weighs on this, of course, but he has done an outstanding job of setting the company up to be successful for the next few years, barring some huge unforeseen event(s).



    Enterprise, which you mention, is huge. I think many people are underestimating the amount of potential growth in AAPL due to new adoption by enterprise. The iPad is making huge gains in those markets, much of it due to heavy iPhone use by executives and other leaders. Many IT leaders are big users of the MacBook/Pro lineups, thanks to the unix core and zillions of geeky open source tools. So because

    1) IT is far more accepting of Apple products now, and

    2) executives pushing for their own personal use of Apple products at work, and

    3) current relatively small market share in enterprise.

    there is huge potential here. Imagine if Apple could "just" gain an additional 10% of the enterprise market.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by bill42 View Post


    I am the opposite of a stock expert,

    ...

    So a few weeks ago doubled my shares to 300 by selling my other stocks and funds putting all of that IRA money into apple. Every day I sit here as my account gains about $2000 a day, thinking "Holy cow this is FUN!" and yet I know it is dangerous to have my entire IRA in one stock.



    This is the other side of the equation, and why I still worry. This attitude is reminiscent of the pre-2000 market. In the late 90s everyone and their brother (and sister and cousin and mom and dad) were putting money into the stock market because all their friends were doing it and making good money. Regardless of the fact they they know nothing of investing.



    This is not meant as an insult to bill42 as much as it is a reminder that when everyone has their money in the pot there's no new money to enter the game. We're not there yet, but when I start seeing lots of people who no nothing of investing putting their money in the market I'm going to start reducing my positions.



    In the meantime, everyone go buy AAPL!
  • sanjaybsanjayb Posts: 5member
    Bylund's writing makes me wonder what it takes to be a "top analyst" these days.



    BTW, the Hindi word for "d*ck" is "Lund". I'm not making this up.
  • sockrolidsockrolid Posts: 2,635member
    This classic Apple truism bit the dust long ago: "Apple products are all overpriced."



    Ultrabook manufacturers can only match MacBook Air prices at razor thin margins. Pad computer makers struggle to match iPad pricing and are forced to cut corners (7" screens, plastic enclosures, etc.) Apple has worked long and hard to improve their supply chain economy of scale and to bring down their production costs. They've relentlessly developed fundamental technologies like battery chemistry and chip design, and manufacturing processes like their computerized aluminum milling machines and Liquidmetal molding techniques. And they won't stop. Their costs will continue to drop, and their margins will stay up, as their retail prices continue to drop.



    This old chestnut is on its way out: "Buy AAPL on rumor, sell on news."



    As recently as last year, AAPL was heavily and successfully manipulated by shorters. Any time a stock rises as rapidly as AAPL has, the shorters wake up and gamble that the stock has peaked. And it is, after all, pure gambling. Exactly like rolling dice or playing roulette. Unless you manufacture some phony negative Apple news that panics major investors into selling. Imagine if you were able to bluff the dealer when you play blackjack, to make them fold. That would tip the odds in your favor a bit, wouldn't it?



    Well this year the scare tactics haven't worked. There's less uncertainty in Apple's future now. The #1 concern last year was Apple's stability post-Jobs. Who would run the company? Would that person be effective? Would Apple's products continue to have that unique appeal? All those questions have been answered.
  • godzillagodzilla Posts: 156member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cvaldes1831 View Post


    Naturally, you'll get dinged on the transaction fees, but at least you sold long in a year when capital gains are still relatively low.



    I have a question on this: IF they raise Capital Gains, when is a realistic timeframe that we can expect that to happen? Also, IF it happens, what happens to those who bought Stocks, and/or are Long before the change takes place? Would it (hopefully) only affect those who are buying Stocks AFTER the Capital Gain % change?
  • am8449am8449 Posts: 324member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by shard View Post


    I always believe that if an analyst is really good, he will be managing his own fund like Warren Buffett and be worth billions.



    The fact they are still writing for the masses and playing with their simulated portfolios says a lot.



    An interesting thought!
  • jragostajragosta Posts: 10,473member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Godzilla View Post


    I have a question on this: IF they raise Capital Gains, when is a realistic timeframe that we can expect that to happen? Also, IF it happens, what happens to those who bought Stocks, and/or are Long before the change takes place? Would it (hopefully) only affect those who are buying Stocks AFTER the Capital Gain % change?



    It's impossible to predict what a law that hasn't been passed (or even proposed) would say, but it is most likely that it would apply to all stocks whether purchased before or after the change in the law.
  • godzillagodzilla Posts: 156member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by jragosta View Post


    It's impossible to predict what a law that hasn't been passed (or even proposed) would say, but it is most likely that it would apply to all stocks whether purchased before or after the change in the law.



    Ah. Well, if not even proposed yet, even if it did happen, and wasn't typical fearful doomsday prediction stuff, I'm sure those who aren't yet Long, but are on the way to be within the next several months, would have a chance to Sell (and Buy back if they wanted) before it eventually might pass.
  • huntercrhuntercr Posts: 140member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Blah64 View Post


    Great post. Investing is not "exciting". If it's exciting, you're probably not investing, but gambling. There's nothing wrong with gambling (as long as it's your own money and you can afford to lose it), but people need to know the difference.



    Your points/questions are great, and resemble the kinds of questions I constantly keep in the back of my mind as I watch Apple and the overall markets. 1b and 2d are very similar, but generally good points. Other stuff off the top of my head:



    * What is happening with the overall world economy? This can be hedged out, but it's relevant.

    * What does the (likely) product pipeline look like? (growth in new product areas, like possible TV)

    * Investor sentiment. This is psychology as much as analysis, but significant. Not altogether separate from consumer sentiment, but different enough to consider separately.

    * Alternative investments; at the end of the day, where else would I park this money? Are there other equities with better potential? Maybe, but they seem higher risk to me. Could I pay off the mortgage? Sure, but that's investment money that's costing me less than 5%/yr, and I feel AAPL is a better investment right now. At the levels I'm at, much of it could be considered gambling, but I'm able to weather significant ups and downs without hardship.

    * Management. Over the past 5 years I would rate management as *stellar*. Currently, I think they are still excellent, with one of the strongest overall executive management teams in the world for a company of their size, although losing Ron Johnson sucks. Jobs' untimely death weighs on this, of course, but he has done an outstanding job of setting the company up to be successful for the next few years, barring some huge unforeseen event(s).



    Enterprise, which you mention, is huge. I think many people are underestimating the amount of potential growth in AAPL due to new adoption by enterprise. The iPad is making huge gains in those markets, much of it due to heavy iPhone use by executives and other leaders. Many IT leaders are big users of the MacBook/Pro lineups, thanks to the unix core and zillions of geeky open source tools. So because

    1) IT is far more accepting of Apple products now, and

    2) executives pushing for their own personal use of Apple products at work, and

    3) current relatively small market share in enterprise.

    there is huge potential here. Imagine if Apple could "just" gain an additional 10% of the enterprise market.







    This is the other side of the equation, and why I still worry. This attitude is reminiscent of the pre-2000 market. In the late 90s everyone and their brother (and sister and cousin and mom and dad) were putting money into the stock market because all their friends were doing it and making good money. Regardless of the fact they they know nothing of investing.



    This is not meant as an insult to bill42 as much as it is a reminder that when everyone has their money in the pot there's no new money to enter the game. We're not there yet, but when I start seeing lots of people who no nothing of investing putting their money in the market I'm going to start reducing my positions.



    In the meantime, everyone go buy AAPL!



    Excellent advice and commentary, Blah64. I agree 100%. I hope people realize that some careful thought and dispassionate examination of the facts is extremely important to not get carried away. Good luck to you and everyone who has invested in Apple!
  • jag_warriorjag_warrior Posts: 177member
    Excellent, well thought out post by Blah64.



    As for the "advice" offered by the Motley Fool site, that might have worked for a trader (hoping to exit a long position or go short). But even if it had been accurate, what did the writer see in Apple's fundamentals that would have made that trade work for the medium to long term?



    This reminds me of a (anti-Apple) poster on another site who realized that I was long AAPL, and proceeded to give me a hard time when it dipped down from the $350's to below $320 last year. I told him that I wasn't even thinking about selling (as nothing fundamentally had changed), and I was in fact buying some Aug calls. I suggested that he dig into his piggy bank and also buy some calls. He, of course, did not. And once he realized how much I made off that call purchase, he actually stopped posting on that site. I'm sure that wasn't the only reason he left. But after being there for almost 10 years, and never liking to be hit with an "I told you so", that appeared to be the final straw.



    I really like Apple's products. But I'm not married to the stock. If/when It breaks down, I'll sell. I see no reason to sell a stock that is continuing to rise. Sell the losers, keep the winners. Along the way, I may buy/sell puts or calls to protect myself. But no matter what, I'll still like their products - as I have since the mid 80's. But this is about generating the highest possible returns, not falling in love with a stock symbol.
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