JP Morgan: Ultrabooks unlikely to drive PC growth in 2012

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Comments

  • Reply 21 of 31
    I thought at one point the PC makers--specially Dell and HP--had declined to tue point that they were rebadging laptops from Taiwan as their own. Many years ago, there was in fact a Dell laptop was had optical bays that were interchangeable with an HP model because they were actually the same laptop under the label. The PC ultrabook won't happen until Intel can manufacture a reference design and allow the HPs and Acers of the world to rebadge it.
  • Reply 22 of 31
    hmmhmm Posts: 3,405member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post


    Some of those people have no shame. Once again, Apple innovates, and then a bunch of other no talent people blatantly copy Apple's designs.



    Who in their right mind would spend their precious money on some pathetic looking knockoff when they can get the original for a pretty cheap price? And to top it all off, they get the amazing and great OS X with it. Hell, if somebody wants to, they can even install Windows on their Mac, and have both OSes on their Mac, not that I would ever install Windows on any of my machines of course.



    And those no talent PC makers are finding out that it's not that easy to deliver on the price points that they were initially hoping for. It turns out that the Macbook Air is priced to be very affordable. Would somebody rather buy an original painting by Picasso or a painting by some drunken bum sitting on a street corner who copied one of Picasso's paintings if they both were similarly priced?



    If I ever saw anybody with one of those ultrabooks that looks like a Macbook Air ripoff, then I'd instantly know that that person has no taste, no style and no clue. I'd also question their overall intelligence and their decision making ability.



    I'm not sure what you get from trolling the side of Apple here. The Lenovo is pictured there next to the Air in bad light. If you accept the necessary evil of google and view some of their designs, yes they're going thinner, but they are creating their own designs. Lenovo shares only a couple things with the Air. They have similar densities and keyboards. The chiclet keyboard may be a necessary step to create a product that thin. Apple wouldn't have a case in suing them even if the look and feel garbage actually held up in court. If you're going to troll something as a knockoff, look at one of the others. Regarding OSX, damn it I wish Apple would fix their graphics drivers . I'd also like to see 10 bit displayport options, but that may never happen.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post


    If Apple can sue over the design rip offs for iPad why can't they do the same for the MBA designs?



    Look at how some of the look and feel suits played out. They didn't accomplish much. Anyway laptops in general share some common elements, but if you find a few photos of the Lenovo version, they're basically taking the same styling direction as the previous ideapads. The thinkpads look significantly different, but those have always been designed for rugged qualities. If you're only focused on what Apple is doing, everything else looks like a copy as you saw it first from Apple.
  • Reply 23 of 31
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by nagromme View Post


    "All of this market emulation of Apple is ironic, in our view, given the initial skepticism that the MacBook Air received.?



    As ever!



    1. Apple comes out with something never before seen, or makes it usable for the first time.



    2. Competitors denounce it. Trolls rush to agree.



    3. It succeeds wildly. Apple must have brainwashed people, because obviously Apple never makes anything actually worthwhile.



    4. Competitors copy it. Trolls now love it, but only without the Apple logo (nor Apple quality).



    Don't forget that the trolls now say that it was always obvious and that was the way the market was always going, which translates to Apple has never really innovated anything.
  • Reply 24 of 31
    shompashompa Posts: 343member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by PhilBoogie View Post


    Supposedly they do not get a subsidy because they don't have those 'Intel Inside' stickers on them. But when looking for a link I came up with something better: no one is getting Intel Money:



    Intel denies reports of ultrabook hardware subsidies (The Verge)



    Those stickers are fun.

    I bought a Sony Vaio a month ago.

    7 different stickers. From Intel,Nvidia,3Dvision, Genuine Microsoft and so on... Total crap including all crap ware inside the computer.
  • Reply 25 of 31
    sockrolidsockrolid Posts: 2,789member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


    [...] However, J.P. Morgan is doubtful that Intel's efforts will take. Moskowitz characterized Apple's MacBook Air as a one-of-a-kind success story that was highly unlikely to transfer to ultrabooks. [...]



    Bingo. Apple has transformed the MacBook Air from an overpriced, underpowered "executive laptop" niche special into their cheapest, best-selling consumer laptop. While maintaining healthy profit margins, radically increasing sales, and locking up consumer mindshare in the laptop space.



    And how did Apple do that? By relentlessly advancing manufacturing technology, by relentlessly polishing the user experience, and by relentlessly upgrading their infrastructure. In other words, Apple has worked on critical areas that none of the Wintel laptop makers are willing to spend a dime on.



    That's why Intel had to bribe them with $300 million to drag them along into the Ultrabook Initiative. And that's why the Ultrabook Initiative will ultimately fail. Because sprinkling money on the problem is only a short-term fix.
  • Reply 26 of 31
    shompashompa Posts: 343member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post


    Don't forget that the trolls now say that it was always obvious and that was the way the market was always going, which translates to Apple has never really innovated anything.



    And its not just one time.



    A couple of years ago Shuttle and SFF was big. All copies of the most beautiful computer of all time: G4Cube.

    ---



    I wish that some mole would report if Apple and Intel resigned their agreement.



    2005-6 they signed a 5 year agreement. Intel designs motherboards for Apple + CPU. Many times Apple got pre released CPUs. Then the problems between Intel and Apple started. Intel got crazy and stopped third party motherboard chipset for i7 CPUs.



    Apple demanded a Intel CPU without integrated Graphics. Intel refused. Apple was forced to use Core2duo way to long.



    The Mac Pro is another example. Apple had thunderbold MacPros in 2009. These have not been released. Apple don't want to pay Intel almost 2000K for 2 CPUs. In 2006 the "same" CPU costed 330 dollar. In 2006 Intel had competition from AMD. Not today = why Intel are insane crazy. Just look at the 10 core Intel that costs 4400 dollars.



    AMD is a non issue. They cant provide enough CPUs to Apple. That was the reason why Apple/AMDs negotiations broke down.



    Intel is lazy. After 2006 AMD have had zero CPUs to compete with Intel = Intel have not cranked up the speeds. 2006 Intel's fastest CPU was a quad core 2.66ghz. Today its a hexa core about 3.5 ghz. Intel have doubled performance in 5 years.



    ARM 2007 400mhz.

    ARM Q1 2012 Quad core 2.5ghz. That is about 17 times performance gain. The quod core ARM 15 would beat intels 1.5-1.7ghz that Macbook Air uses today. The main difference is that Intel wants 400 + dollars for CPU/motherboard. ARM SoC is about 25-30 dollars.



    Intel will be a niche manufacturer in a couple of years. X86 is biggest not because it was best of fastest. Only reason was that it was fast enough and cheap. ARM is now fast enough and cheap.
  • Reply 27 of 31
    hmmhmm Posts: 3,405member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SockRolid View Post


    Bingo. Apple has transformed the MacBook Air from an overpriced, underpowered "executive laptop" niche special into their cheapest, best-selling consumer laptop. While maintaining healthy profit margins, radically increasing sales, and locking up consumer mindshare in the laptop space.



    And how did Apple do that? By relentlessly advancing manufacturing technology, by relentlessly polishing the user experience, and by relentlessly upgrading their infrastructure. In other words, Apple has worked on critical areas that none of the Wintel laptop makers are willing to spend a dime on.



    That's why Intel had to bribe them with $300 million to drag them along into the Ultrabook Initiative. And that's why the Ultrabook Initiative will ultimately fail. Because sprinkling money on the problem is only a short-term fix.



    You can spin the original air as an executive laptop. I call it a beta test. It had way too many things wrong with it, which really didn't work at that price. It ran too hot on throttled versions of the cpus in use there, and the SSD version was extremely expensive. Of course part of that was due to the newness of the technology at that time. They really did turn that one around. I still don't agree that all ultrabooks are complete knockoffs. Yes Apple pioneered the form factor, but if you look at previous offerings from some of those manufacturers, many are using extensions of their own previous designs.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by shompa View Post


    And its not just one time.



    A couple of years ago Shuttle and SFF was big. All copies of the most beautiful computer of all time: G4Cube.

    ---



    I wish that some mole would report if Apple and Intel resigned their agreement.



    2005-6 they signed a 5 year agreement. Intel designs motherboards for Apple + CPU. Many times Apple got pre released CPUs. Then the problems between Intel and Apple started. Intel got crazy and stopped third party motherboard chipset for i7 CPUs.



    Apple demanded a Intel CPU without integrated Graphics. Intel refused. Apple was forced to use Core2duo way to long.



    The Mac Pro is another example. Apple had thunderbold MacPros in 2009. These have not been released. Apple don't want to pay Intel almost 2000K for 2 CPUs. In 2006 the "same" CPU costed 330 dollar. In 2006 Intel had competition from AMD. Not today = why Intel are insane crazy. Just look at the 10 core Intel that costs 4400 dollars.



    AMD is a non issue. They cant provide enough CPUs to Apple. That was the reason why Apple/AMDs negotiations broke down.



    Intel is lazy. After 2006 AMD have had zero CPUs to compete with Intel = Intel have not cranked up the speeds. 2006 Intel's fastest CPU was a quad core 2.66ghz. Today its a hexa core about 3.5 ghz. Intel have doubled performance in 5 years.



    ARM 2007 400mhz.

    ARM Q1 2012 Quad core 2.5ghz. That is about 17 times performance gain. The quod core ARM 15 would beat intels 1.5-1.7ghz that Macbook Air uses today. The main difference is that Intel wants 400 + dollars for CPU/motherboard. ARM SoC is about 25-30 dollars.



    Intel will be a niche manufacturer in a couple of years. X86 is biggest not because it was best of fastest. Only reason was that it was fast enough and cheap. ARM is now fast enough and cheap.



    Okay this is just completely wrong. You may not like it, but you're wrong on practically every detail in your post. Clock speed isn't the sole determining factor in speed. You can't compare clock speeds across different architectures. The quad core ARM can't touch the Air cpu. Where are you getting your information? Guess what, it's significantly slower than even a Core2 chip. Attempt to scale it upward toward this kind of performance and the incentive on power and longer battery life evaporates. Next thing is that they didn't have a five year agreement. Apple switched logic board manufacturers across machines before that period was up. If a contract was in place for that full duration, this would not have happened. If you're going to post up such a long rant, at least try to get some of your information right. Also the fast enough argument has been stated a billion times over the past decade. When a computer exists that can process text in real time, people start to say fast enough. It happens, but beyond that you're either trolling or completely ignorant.
  • Reply 28 of 31
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by tundraboy View Post


    The way their industry is structured, Windows PC manufacturers have no choice but to compete on price. Because they all run the same OS, they are all producing a basically generic product, and as in all generic products, competition is waged in pricing not features. So where is the profit generated in the WinPC market? The big monopoly profits are harvested by Microsoft of course who can set pretty much any price they want on Windows because the PC mfrs have no other alternative.



    I don't see why Apple should be pissed at Intel pushing ultrabooks. Apple doesn't generate enough business for Intel, why would Intel not seek to generate other sales avenues? And AMD? AMD doesn't have the R&D muscle to keep up with Intel, and if Apple wants to be in the technology vanguard, it has to stick with Intel.



    APU... graphics accelerating.... This is where AMD is and will keep on destroying Intel.



    Intel cannot make integrated graphics that even come close to AMD's. much less drivers (which does not matter that much with Apple i think).



    If trinity is right, than they could swap out the ULV cpu's in MBA's today, add in the trinity quad core APU's and use graphics acceleration to make it go a lot faster.



    P.S. Apple should just buy AMD, cheaper than ARM, and going for graphics acceleration...
  • Reply 29 of 31
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by nicolbolas View Post


    APU... graphics accelerating.... This is where AMD is and will keep on destroying Intel.



    Intel cannot make integrated graphics that even come close to AMD's. much less drivers (which does not matter that much with Apple i think).






    I think we may want to wait and see what Intel does with the 4000HD graphics in the Ivy Bridge processors, if the buzz is even halfway true, it will handily outperform anything AMD has out there.



    I think AMD is only ever going to truly be able to compete with Intel on price. Intel has so much more money and resources than AMD, that they are almost always going to be leaps and bounds ahead as far as technology.
  • Reply 30 of 31
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post


    I'd like to see where Apple ranks in profits for the PC industry and for unit marketshare over $1000. I bet it's higher than the previous measure. Those netbooks really killed the PC market not only in their ability to turn a profit but also consumer faith in those other PC vendors.



    Very good points. The large box makers were all too concerned with marketshare, while Apple was more concerned with profit per unit sold. And while the generic Windows based producers were trying to beat each other on price, to capture more share (netbooks), Apple sold "the experience". Rather than devaluing the product, and making it just another utilitarian appliance, Apple tries to give, at least the impression, that what you are purchasing is something more than just a generic box with a monitor attached.



    There will always be a market for cheap, utilitarian devices... especially in developing nations. But even there, as people move up the food chain, they typically want to disassociate themselves from Chevrolets and get a Mercedes. And as these former netbook makers are finding, once you have a rep for making cheap crap, it's not so easy to move into a premium space.



    Considering Apple's level of success at its current marketshare, it doesn't have to get to 20% to do well. Moving from 1.5 to 3 and then 3 to 6 are 100% gains. So as a shareholder (and new, happy iMac owner), I'm extremely pleased with the progress that Apple has made since the bad old days of the early-mid 90's. I think the company learned from that experience and will NOT repeat it.



    BTW, I watched my doctor struggle with his Windows 7 Dell today. It was quite sad. Maybe he'll take the small fortune I'll be paying him and buy an iMac.
  • Reply 31 of 31
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