I'm going to play devils advocate on this one... apart from the iPhone and iPad (and MAYBE the Notebook), are there REALLY any other RUNAWAY successes for Apple?
My point is - there's A LOT of expectations for Apple. And the tough thing about being the flavor of the month for consumers and Wall Street, is that unless you keep up the momentum, Apple's meteoric, almost overnight rise, can become an almost overnight free fall.
Apple going into TV is a BIG risk. A TV isn't a $200 phone or $500 iPad or even a $999 notebook pc. It's a $2000+ purchase that most people won't get in line for, get rid of in 2 years.
And given the UI/features found with AppleTV - adding AppleTV to an HDTV really isn't THAT exciting. Really, would you pay a $1000+ premium on a TV, when Apple sells a $99 accessory that allows you to do the same thing?
And if it adds Siri... so you can talk to a TV. Again, a $1000+ worthy feature?
Obviously I am making some assumptions. And again, I am playing devils advocate.
The iPhone is taking the majority of the mobile handset profits. The market for smartphones is still growing at a fast pace.
The iPad is a relatively new device and has few (if any real contenders) it is already disrupting the notebook market. Lots of room for growth, plus the margins might be bigger.
As for what is left of the notebook market, Apple only has a small share still, so lots of room for growth which is happening.
Yes, I agree that people don't usually throw out a TV after a few years, but that is exactly what they do with a $2000 Macbook Pro.
The way I see it, Apple is either dominating a growing market (iPhone/iPad), or is growing rapidly in established markets (macs). Lots and lots of room to grow, plus they're just getting started in China (and soon India?). However, I'm still weary on these predictions.
There are quite a number of aspirational clothing brands, there are at least 5 aspirational automobile brands, likewise with home appliances, maybe 4 for cameras. But there is only one aspirational computer and mobile device brand. Only Apple can get away with charging a luxury premium for their products, all the rest are competing on price among each other.
IMO, Apple is moving away from this strategy. The iPad was not introduced with a large premium; other brands are finding i difficult to match the low price.
The 3GS is given away for free.
There is basically no aspirational audience for the iPod. And the iPod was the turning point for the Apple brand, which went from niche to commodity within a few years after introduction.
The iPad is certainly a bigger financial hit for the same them frame than the iPhone. I think it could overtake the iPhone in revenue and profit in a couple years. I also think that in 5 years the iPad could potentially outsell all other PCs combined.
First off it's not about making 'us', it's about making BIG investors happy. We're talking stock price and business here, not end consumer.
Quote:
- iPod
iPod goes in the WAS category for earnings driver. Still a solid performer, It's essentially at a saturation point and isn't going to drive that much future growth, and be a leader for a $1000 stock price. You'd hate to stay a slow decline for the category going forward, but realistically that's what it is without some major deviation in future generations.
Quote:
- iPhone
- iPad
Naturally.
Quote:
- MacBook Air
Maybe, potentially. As of today not exactly just yet. Let's see what happens in the 13 and 15in space this year before calling it a home run yet.
Quote:
- Apple TV (to a slightly lesser extent)
A device made from leftover A5s? Definitely not.
Quote:
- Apple Retail Stores
- Apple online store
Corporate overhead? Expense? Not a Product? May be elegant and good marketing, but also not a $1000 stock driver.
The big one you're missing is iTunes. Otherwise it's going to take another future Home run product to break the next big level from here. What, When are the uncertainty factors.
Exactly man - that's what the fabois seem to miss...
The stock price right now is fixed to the CURRENT successes of the company and some growth in other markets. But for investors to plunk down 40% more to push $1000, Apple NEEDS to have one (if not two) solid products to excited about.
Apple HDTV will NOT be an immediate home run.
I'm not saying that because I am being a naysayer... but the consumer decision process for a $200 iPhone or $500 tablet IS MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH different from a $2999 HDTV. (Assuming a premium price on the TV for a 55" model). As an example... HDTV growth has stalled, for a number of reasons, but the biggest perhaps, is that most households already have one. And "upgrades" for TVs tend more toward replacement because of broken versus just an impulse buy. And if it is an impulse buy, the features have to be compelling enough for a reinvestment of $3000... which may be REALY tough as solid 55" HDTVs are half that price.
Competitors aren't snoozing either. Samsung has a new voice and gesture controlled TV rolling out. Kinect is coming to TV also. And content for TV isn't quite like music either.
. . . Apple fever is spreading like a wildfire around the world and we see no end in sight to this trend," he said.
In particular, White argues that Apple "remains the premiere play on the rise of the mobile Internet around the world" and stands well positioned to capitalize on the trend, especially in China where 3G subscriber rates are expected to swell to 230 million by year's end and make the country's mobile ecosystem "one of the wonders of the technology world."
Finally some sober realism from the analyst world. I like this kind of talk. It means you can still buy in.
Also, for those who don't see where the next big thing is coming from, don't forget wearable screens and wristphones/cameras. There's a long way to go.
I bought a few more shares just before close on Friday at around 599, and today AAPL takes off like a rocket ship!
Nice job grabbing shares on a dip like that, but I don't know that I'd call it taking off "like a rocket ship!".
A $14 move on a $45 stock is a blockbuster. A $14 move on a $600 stock is only 2%. Sure, its far better than staying flat or moving the other direction, but it's the equivalent of Microsoft move of 60 cents. No one notices that.
I'm going to play devils advocate on this one... apart from the iPhone and iPad (and MAYBE the Notebook), are there REALLY any other RUNAWAY successes for Apple?
My point is - there's A LOT of expectations for Apple. And the tough thing about being the flavor of the month for consumers and Wall Street, is that unless you keep up the momentum, Apple's meteoric, almost overnight rise, can become an almost overnight free fall.
Apple going into TV is a BIG risk. A TV isn't a $200 phone or $500 iPad or even a $999 notebook pc. It's a $2000+ purchase that most people won't get in line for, get rid of in 2 years.
And given the UI/features found with AppleTV - adding AppleTV to an HDTV really isn't THAT exciting. Really, would you pay a $1000+ premium on a TV, when Apple sells a $99 accessory that allows you to do the same thing?
And if it adds Siri... so you can talk to a TV. Again, a $1000+ worthy feature?
Obviously I am making some assumptions. And again, I am playing devils advocate.
Expect all possible options of how we use and how and where we get are tv shows/movies/games from ...expect a game changer not as a TV for shows/sports, but a centre piece in the house....cost and features should be expected for it to be game changer.
Exactly man - that's what the fabois seem to miss...
The stock price right now is fixed to the CURRENT successes of the company and some growth in other markets. But for investors to plunk down 40% more to push $1000, Apple NEEDS to have one (if not two) solid products to excited about.
Apple HDTV will NOT be an immediate home run.
I'm not saying that because I am being a naysayer... but the consumer decision process for a $200 iPhone or $500 tablet IS MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH different from a $2999 HDTV. (Assuming a premium price on the TV for a 55" model). As an example... HDTV growth has stalled, for a number of reasons, but the biggest perhaps, is that most households already have one. And "upgrades" for TVs tend more toward replacement because of broken versus just an impulse buy. And if it is an impulse buy, the features have to be compelling enough for a reinvestment of $3000... which may be REALY tough as solid 55" HDTVs are half that price.
Competitors aren't snoozing either. Samsung has a new voice and gesture controlled TV rolling out. Kinect is coming to TV also. And content for TV isn't quite like music either.
I see great potential, within the home, for the iPad to become the personal [individual] activity center -- where each individual has his own device for:
-- watching TV
-- watching Movies
-- basic computing
-- special needs
-- religious training
-- workshop and home improvement projects
-- security monitoring and home maintenance
-- installation and repair instruction and reference manuals
-- gardening activities
-- event planning
-- presentations and presentation creation
-- reading and library
-- doing work and homework
-- studying
-- courses, classes, speciality training
-- drill and practice
-- playing games (single or multiplayer)
-- communication (text, email, Skype, FaceTime)
-- activity monitoring and intercommunication
-- taking photos videos
-- creating/editing videos, montages
-- listening/watching music
-- creating music
-- research
-- storyboarding and prototyping ideas
-- collaboration, brainstorming
-- scheduling, calendar, reminders
-- personal care, exercise, health and diet
-- cooking, cooking instruction and recipes
-- itinerary and trip planning
-- shopping, product review, comparison and analysis
Then, as WiFi and high-speed cellular become ubiquitous and more affordable -- these activities will expand to outside the home -- and into the workplace.
In our home of 2 adults and 3 teenagers, each individual has had an iPad for over 1 year -- and at least one of us has done most (if not all) of the items listed above.
Nice job grabbing shares on a dip like that, but I don't know that I'd call it taking off "like a rocket ship!".
A $14 move on a $45 stock is a blockbuster. A $14 move on a $600 stock is only 2%. Sure, its far better than staying flat or moving the other direction, but it's the equivalent of Microsoft move of 60 cents. No one notices that.
Just keeping things real
Depends on how you are investing... a $550 Call with April expiration would have given you a 25% return; selling a $650 put would also give you similar return.
...and before anybody says that isn't investing, it is just gambling... it depends on what your intent is at option expiration. I've been lucky to have to sell a lot of puts this quarter to end up with some in-the-money to replace shares next month.
The iPad is certainly a bigger financial hit for the same them frame than the iPhone. I think it could overtake the iPhone in revenue and profit in a couple years. I also think that in 5 years the iPad could potentially outsell all other PCs combined.
iPad sale will explode through the roof when we can write on the screen. When that happen, bye bye PC for the majority of people.
No, not like that. Writing on screen Apple Style. Intuitive, natural and native support. Can be pen, pencil, brush, rubber with handwriting recognition as good as SIRI, and zero lag.
No, not like that. Writing on screen Apple Style. Intuitive, natural and native support. Can be pen, pencil, brush, rubber with handwriting recognition as good as SIRI, and zero lag.
There isn't much more 'intuitive or natural' (as you put it) magic to be had. At the root of it you will still need some type of capacitive type pen as long we as are using capacitive touch screens, which have been around for some time. Anything else is just software.
MacBook Air (already redefined the notebook market)
iCloud (run away success although not monetized)
Siri (potential not even close to being realized, think "Made for Siri")
Maps and Navigation (may help adoption rates in Automotive market?)
AppleTV (?)
Growth in China, India and Brazil.
I don't believe that a single product line will necessarily move Apple stock another 400 points. Instead, a combination of existing products, known but not-fully-realized products and emerging markets could move Apple Stock another 400 points.
Although I can't see any revolutionary changes Apple could implement in the Television market, I am not sure Apple needs to offer anything revolutionary. The television market is primed for disruptive forces as many people seem disturbed by the high-cost, low-quality offerings of subscription television.
How could apple potentially disrupt the television market? If Apple can replace multiple devices with a single device, AppleTV:
Retina Display with Siri controls
Entertainment Center (Genius cataloged with Ping integration to see what your friends are watching and television subscriptions via iTunes)
Game console (Game Center with high-quality iOS games)
"Home Center" (Calendar, Contacts, FaceTime, iMessage and "Made for AppleTV" home automation)
"Learning Center" (educational apps, iTunes U, Podcasts)
It is possible that only Apple is capable of producing high-quality displays (4k x 4k display) at an acceptable price point at this time
Comments
THIS.
I'm going to play devils advocate on this one... apart from the iPhone and iPad (and MAYBE the Notebook), are there REALLY any other RUNAWAY successes for Apple?
My point is - there's A LOT of expectations for Apple. And the tough thing about being the flavor of the month for consumers and Wall Street, is that unless you keep up the momentum, Apple's meteoric, almost overnight rise, can become an almost overnight free fall.
Apple going into TV is a BIG risk. A TV isn't a $200 phone or $500 iPad or even a $999 notebook pc. It's a $2000+ purchase that most people won't get in line for, get rid of in 2 years.
And given the UI/features found with AppleTV - adding AppleTV to an HDTV really isn't THAT exciting. Really, would you pay a $1000+ premium on a TV, when Apple sells a $99 accessory that allows you to do the same thing?
And if it adds Siri... so you can talk to a TV. Again, a $1000+ worthy feature?
Obviously I am making some assumptions. And again, I am playing devils advocate.
The iPhone is taking the majority of the mobile handset profits. The market for smartphones is still growing at a fast pace.
The iPad is a relatively new device and has few (if any real contenders) it is already disrupting the notebook market. Lots of room for growth, plus the margins might be bigger.
As for what is left of the notebook market, Apple only has a small share still, so lots of room for growth which is happening.
Yes, I agree that people don't usually throw out a TV after a few years, but that is exactly what they do with a $2000 Macbook Pro.
The way I see it, Apple is either dominating a growing market (iPhone/iPad), or is growing rapidly in established markets (macs). Lots and lots of room to grow, plus they're just getting started in China (and soon India?). However, I'm still weary on these predictions.
There are quite a number of aspirational clothing brands, there are at least 5 aspirational automobile brands, likewise with home appliances, maybe 4 for cameras. But there is only one aspirational computer and mobile device brand. Only Apple can get away with charging a luxury premium for their products, all the rest are competing on price among each other.
IMO, Apple is moving away from this strategy. The iPad was not introduced with a large premium; other brands are finding i difficult to match the low price.
The 3GS is given away for free.
There is basically no aspirational audience for the iPod. And the iPod was the turning point for the Apple brand, which went from niche to commodity within a few years after introduction.
Students learn much more on an iPad then from a book
The same was said about the CD-ROM. But they never caught on.
The jury is still out on the textbook/iPad question. As of now, there is no critical mass.
How many do they need to make you happy?
- iPod
- iPhone
- iPad
- MacBook Air
- Apple TV (to a slightly lesser extent)
- Apple Retail Stores
- Apple online store
The iPad is certainly a bigger financial hit for the same them frame than the iPhone. I think it could overtake the iPhone in revenue and profit in a couple years. I also think that in 5 years the iPad could potentially outsell all other PCs combined.
How many do they need to make you happy?
First off it's not about making 'us', it's about making BIG investors happy. We're talking stock price and business here, not end consumer.
- iPod
iPod goes in the WAS category for earnings driver. Still a solid performer, It's essentially at a saturation point and isn't going to drive that much future growth, and be a leader for a $1000 stock price. You'd hate to stay a slow decline for the category going forward, but realistically that's what it is without some major deviation in future generations.
- iPhone
- iPad
Naturally.
- MacBook Air
Maybe, potentially. As of today not exactly just yet. Let's see what happens in the 13 and 15in space this year before calling it a home run yet.
- Apple TV (to a slightly lesser extent)
A device made from leftover A5s? Definitely not.
- Apple Retail Stores
- Apple online store
Corporate overhead? Expense? Not a Product? May be elegant and good marketing, but also not a $1000 stock driver.
The big one you're missing is iTunes. Otherwise it's going to take another future Home run product to break the next big level from here. What, When are the uncertainty factors.
Exactly man - that's what the fabois seem to miss...
The stock price right now is fixed to the CURRENT successes of the company and some growth in other markets. But for investors to plunk down 40% more to push $1000, Apple NEEDS to have one (if not two) solid products to excited about.
Apple HDTV will NOT be an immediate home run.
I'm not saying that because I am being a naysayer... but the consumer decision process for a $200 iPhone or $500 tablet IS MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH different from a $2999 HDTV. (Assuming a premium price on the TV for a 55" model). As an example... HDTV growth has stalled, for a number of reasons, but the biggest perhaps, is that most households already have one. And "upgrades" for TVs tend more toward replacement because of broken versus just an impulse buy. And if it is an impulse buy, the features have to be compelling enough for a reinvestment of $3000... which may be REALY tough as solid 55" HDTVs are half that price.
Competitors aren't snoozing either. Samsung has a new voice and gesture controlled TV rolling out. Kinect is coming to TV also. And content for TV isn't quite like music either.
. . . Apple fever is spreading like a wildfire around the world and we see no end in sight to this trend," he said.
In particular, White argues that Apple "remains the premiere play on the rise of the mobile Internet around the world" and stands well positioned to capitalize on the trend, especially in China where 3G subscriber rates are expected to swell to 230 million by year's end and make the country's mobile ecosystem "one of the wonders of the technology world."
Finally some sober realism from the analyst world. I like this kind of talk. It means you can still buy in.
Also, for those who don't see where the next big thing is coming from, don't forget wearable screens and wristphones/cameras. There's a long way to go.
I bought a few more shares just before close on Friday at around 599, and today AAPL takes off like a rocket ship!
Nice job grabbing shares on a dip like that, but I don't know that I'd call it taking off "like a rocket ship!".
A $14 move on a $45 stock is a blockbuster. A $14 move on a $600 stock is only 2%. Sure, its far better than staying flat or moving the other direction, but it's the equivalent of Microsoft move of 60 cents. No one notices that.
Just keeping things real
THIS.
I'm going to play devils advocate on this one... apart from the iPhone and iPad (and MAYBE the Notebook), are there REALLY any other RUNAWAY successes for Apple?
My point is - there's A LOT of expectations for Apple. And the tough thing about being the flavor of the month for consumers and Wall Street, is that unless you keep up the momentum, Apple's meteoric, almost overnight rise, can become an almost overnight free fall.
Apple going into TV is a BIG risk. A TV isn't a $200 phone or $500 iPad or even a $999 notebook pc. It's a $2000+ purchase that most people won't get in line for, get rid of in 2 years.
And given the UI/features found with AppleTV - adding AppleTV to an HDTV really isn't THAT exciting. Really, would you pay a $1000+ premium on a TV, when Apple sells a $99 accessory that allows you to do the same thing?
And if it adds Siri... so you can talk to a TV. Again, a $1000+ worthy feature?
Obviously I am making some assumptions. And again, I am playing devils advocate.
Expect all possible options of how we use and how and where we get are tv shows/movies/games from ...expect a game changer not as a TV for shows/sports, but a centre piece in the house....cost and features should be expected for it to be game changer.
@thataveragejoe
Exactly man - that's what the fabois seem to miss...
The stock price right now is fixed to the CURRENT successes of the company and some growth in other markets. But for investors to plunk down 40% more to push $1000, Apple NEEDS to have one (if not two) solid products to excited about.
Apple HDTV will NOT be an immediate home run.
I'm not saying that because I am being a naysayer... but the consumer decision process for a $200 iPhone or $500 tablet IS MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH different from a $2999 HDTV. (Assuming a premium price on the TV for a 55" model). As an example... HDTV growth has stalled, for a number of reasons, but the biggest perhaps, is that most households already have one. And "upgrades" for TVs tend more toward replacement because of broken versus just an impulse buy. And if it is an impulse buy, the features have to be compelling enough for a reinvestment of $3000... which may be REALY tough as solid 55" HDTVs are half that price.
Competitors aren't snoozing either. Samsung has a new voice and gesture controlled TV rolling out. Kinect is coming to TV also. And content for TV isn't quite like music either.
I see great potential, within the home, for the iPad to become the personal [individual] activity center -- where each individual has his own device for:
-- watching TV
-- watching Movies
-- basic computing
-- special needs
-- religious training
-- workshop and home improvement projects
-- security monitoring and home maintenance
-- installation and repair instruction and reference manuals
-- gardening activities
-- event planning
-- presentations and presentation creation
-- reading and library
-- doing work and homework
-- studying
-- courses, classes, speciality training
-- drill and practice
-- playing games (single or multiplayer)
-- communication (text, email, Skype, FaceTime)
-- activity monitoring and intercommunication
-- taking photos videos
-- creating/editing videos, montages
-- listening/watching music
-- creating music
-- research
-- storyboarding and prototyping ideas
-- collaboration, brainstorming
-- scheduling, calendar, reminders
-- personal care, exercise, health and diet
-- cooking, cooking instruction and recipes
-- itinerary and trip planning
-- shopping, product review, comparison and analysis
-- buying
-- creative writing, drawing, painting, mechanical drawing, drafting, CAD
-- sharing with friends and family
Then, as WiFi and high-speed cellular become ubiquitous and more affordable -- these activities will expand to outside the home -- and into the workplace.
In our home of 2 adults and 3 teenagers, each individual has had an iPad for over 1 year -- and at least one of us has done most (if not all) of the items listed above.
And we ain't seen/done nothin' yet!
Nice job grabbing shares on a dip like that, but I don't know that I'd call it taking off "like a rocket ship!".
A $14 move on a $45 stock is a blockbuster. A $14 move on a $600 stock is only 2%. Sure, its far better than staying flat or moving the other direction, but it's the equivalent of Microsoft move of 60 cents. No one notices that.
Just keeping things real
Depends on how you are investing... a $550 Call with April expiration would have given you a 25% return; selling a $650 put would also give you similar return.
...and before anybody says that isn't investing, it is just gambling... it depends on what your intent is at option expiration. I've been lucky to have to sell a lot of puts this quarter to end up with some in-the-money to replace shares next month.
Steve, you created one fine company.
That is Steve's greatest legacy the company (people and mindset) that is Apple.
The iPad is certainly a bigger financial hit for the same them frame than the iPhone. I think it could overtake the iPhone in revenue and profit in a couple years. I also think that in 5 years the iPad could potentially outsell all other PCs combined.
iPad sale will explode through the roof when we can write on the screen. When that happen, bye bye PC for the majority of people.
iPad sale will explode through the roof when we can write on the screen. When that happen, bye bye PC for the majority of people.
You can write on the screen already:
http://store.griffintechnology.com/c...-colorstudiohd
You can write on the screen already:
http://store.griffintechnology.com/c...-colorstudiohd
No, not like that. Writing on screen Apple Style. Intuitive, natural and native support. Can be pen, pencil, brush, rubber with handwriting recognition as good as SIRI, and zero lag.
No, not like that. Writing on screen Apple Style. Intuitive, natural and native support. Can be pen, pencil, brush, rubber with handwriting recognition as good as SIRI, and zero lag.
There isn't much more 'intuitive or natural' (as you put it) magic to be had. At the root of it you will still need some type of capacitive type pen as long we as are using capacitive touch screens, which have been around for some time. Anything else is just software.
As far as blockbuster products and market drivers toward $1000 stock price: Growth in China, India and Brazil.
I don't believe that a single product line will necessarily move Apple stock another 400 points. Instead, a combination of existing products, known but not-fully-realized products and emerging markets could move Apple Stock another 400 points.
Although I can't see any revolutionary changes Apple could implement in the Television market, I am not sure Apple needs to offer anything revolutionary. The television market is primed for disruptive forces as many people seem disturbed by the high-cost, low-quality offerings of subscription television.
How could apple potentially disrupt the television market? If Apple can replace multiple devices with a single device, AppleTV:
It is possible that only Apple is capable of producing high-quality displays (4k x 4k display) at an acceptable price point at this time