Haven't read all the posts, but even with Obama's poor performance in the first debate, he's still going to win, assuming he wins Florida.
My analysis says that Obama will get 304 electoral votes, well above the 270 he needs to win even if every toss-up state goes to Romney. Electoral-Vote.com claims Obama will get 319, but I'm not convinced of that yet.
Here's my analysis. Feel free to poke holes:
States with 18 or more electoral votes (CA, TX, FL,...