HIs analysis seems a bit weird. I agree 5c will go EOL, but I see a moderately updated 5s to include NFC for ApplePay to be almost guaranteed. Wouldn't be surprised if we see it at WWDC. It's an easy addition to an existing design, they want everyone to use ApplePay, and there's still apparently a market for a 4" phone. Based on all of those factors I'd imagine they want to take non-ApplePay phones out of circulation as soon as possible.