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Posts by Blastdoor

Some people might over-emphasize it, but diversification unambiguously has value. Putting a large proportion of one's savings into a single asset is highly risky. I expect Apple to do well, but I don't know with certainty that Apple will do well. There is risk.  It is possible to reduce risk by owning assets whose prices have a low correlation with one another. Trading some expected gains for lower risk make sense for people who have only one life to live. 
I've long wondered if this might be a big issue holding back Apple's stock price.    It's a real problem not just for hedge fund managers but for individual investors for whom AAPL represents a large share of their portfolio. I know it's an issue for me.    This creates an asymmetry between AAPL bulls and bears. The bulls would like to buy more, but they face this diversification constraint. The bears have no analogous constraint.    Perhaps the share buyback program...
This is a good reminder of the risks involved with operating in China. On the one hand it's a huge market which offers the potential for substantial profit growth. On the other hand, it's run by an authoritarian government lacking checks and balances, capable of quickly making capricious decisions that will pull the rug out from under any given company.    My guess is that Apple will capitulate if China ultimately moves forward with this kind of law. It's too hard to...
Maybe I'm out of "touch" (har har), but my impression it's a pretty small set of apps that are nearly identical between iOS and OS X. 
Does anybody know if is it almost exactly the same game on both platforms (aside from necessary UI differences)? Are there any noticeable graphical differences?
Apple's stock cannot seem to sustain a trailing P/E above 17. The whole "law of large numbers" / "regression to the mean" argument is just too deeply entrenched. Apple now exists outside of the range of data that analysts use to predict the future. Their statistical models keep insisting that Apple will regress to the mean. Every time Apple pushes higher, they become more firmly convinced that mean regression is right around the corner. I don't see this cycle ending. 
At this point, 1H 2015 really means Q2 2015 (calendar quarter, that is). 450k out of 5M is 9 percent. If about 75% of Macs are laptops, that means about 12 percent of Mac laptops sold in the quarter.    I actually think that's pretty reasonable. Remember that this is competing against the rest of the Mac lineup, which includes the 13" rMBP for the same price but a much stronger spec sheet (except, of course, for weight).    I'm sure there are some hard core road...
 There's an aspect of that kind of thinking that seems deeply flawed to me. Who introduces a $10,000 gold watch in April and then makes it obsolete in October? My guess --- NOBODY!  I don't know how Apple is going to balance the competing expectations of people coming from the luxury watch market and people coming from the smartphone market, but I just can't see them treating this product like another iPod or iPhone. Something has to give.  I've been thinking that it would...
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