Nearly half of prospective smartphone buyers to choose iPhone

[AppleInsider]

Even amid turbulent times, smartphone adoption continues to rise, with a new study revealing that nearly half of those consumers who plan to make a new smartphone purchase in the next three months will buy an iPhone.

A survey of over 4,000 respondents conducted by ChangeWave in the days immediately following the announcement of the iPhone 3GS found that more than 14% plan to purchase an integrated mobile device in the next 90 days -- the highest percentage ever recorded by the firm.

Of those who said they plan to make a purchase, a resounding 44% indicated that they plan to buy an iPhone, compared to 23% who said they'll buy a BlackBerry and 8% who indicated they'll choose a device made by Palm.

That's a 14 point jump for Apple since ChangeWave's last survey in March, which appears to have come directly at the expense of Research in Motion, whose BlackBerry demand fell by the same number of points. Meanwhile, purchase intentions for a device made by Palm doubled following the introduction of the Pre.

For Apple and its exclusive U.S. iPhone service provider AT&T, the news gets even better. Of those consumers who say they'll be buying an iPhone, more than 66% also said they'll be new to the platform, having never owned one of Apple's handset.

The survey also suggests that the surge in demand for iPhones isn't being driven by Apple's decision to continue marketing the previous-generation 8G iPhone 3G for just $99. Instead, over 86% of respondents planning to buy an iPhone said they'll choose one of the new 3GS models.



In terms of current market share, Research In Motion (41%) remains the market share leader among consumers – unchanged since ChangeWave's previous survey in March – with Apple (25%; up 1 point) now firmly in second place. Palm (7%) remains far behind in third place, but their market slide finally appears to be slowing, according to the market research firm, down just two points in the past six months compared to 5-points in the six months before that.



"Clearly, the Palm Pre is breathing new life into the company. Future demand appears strong, although the Palm brand name no longer commands the same presence it did back in its pioneer days," the firm said. "The far bigger story, however, is that of the iPhone 3GS. The new model release has resulted in a huge spike in demand for Apple going forward. Moreover, consumer plans for smart phone buying in the next 90 days are more than a third higher than they were a year ago."

Still, one-in-four consumers say the most important reason they’re not considering buying an Apple iPhone is because they don’t like the requirement that they'll have to use AT&T. Similarly, 16% say they won’t buy a Palm Pre because they’d have to use Sprint.

[ View this article at AppleInsider.com ]

[DocNo42]

Originally Posted by AppleInsider

The survey also suggests that the surge in demand for iPhones isn't being driven by Apple's decision to continue marketing the previous-generation 8G iPhone 3G for just $99. Instead, over 86% of respondents planning to buy an iPhone said they'll choose one of the new 3GS models.

So much for "the iPhone is too expensive and that's why people aren't buying it". It's more an issue of acceptance of smarphones in general.

The good news, for Apple (and AT&T!), is that when they do choose they overwhelmingly choose the iPhone.

[c4rlob]

I wonder how many of the 66%, that will be new to the iPhone platform, have owned any Apple product (laptop/desktop/iPod) before?

[mbaynham]

got my 3gs this morning. love it!

[teckstud]

I can vouch for dat! 4 days and the love grows daily.

[trumptman]

I love Apple as much as the next guy the reasoning in this survey is crap. It basically measures if people are interested in purchasing right after the release and no on way ties that interest to sell through.

Here is the graph since the automated slave cannot add them.



Hey, what a surprise, a bunch of people were interested June a year ago as well and then interested dropped off as Apple did nothing all year.

If anything this article shows a troubling trend for Apple. Last year at the peak of interest, 56% said they were interested in the then new iPhone 3G. This year at the peak of interest, that same number is only 44%. Both times of year all the Apple buzz manages to crater RIM interest but it is stuck at the same 23% number. The lowering of Apple peak interest correlates very strongly to the increase in Palm interest.

I'd be worried.

[teckstud]

Still, one-in-four consumers say the most important reason they’re not considering buying an Apple iPhone is because they don’t like the requirement that they'll have to use AT&T.

You know, you reach a point where you give in (AT&T) because the device at this point is unparalleled. The OS was always fantastic but paired with the new battery/camera/video tipped it over the edge for me.

[freeny]

Originally Posted by trumptman

I love Apple as much as the next guy the reasoning in this survey is crap. It basically measures if people are interested in purchasing right after the release and no on way ties that interest to sell through.

Here is the graph since the automated slave cannot add them.



Hey, what a surprise, a bunch of people were interested June a year ago as well and then interested dropped off as Apple did nothing all year.

If anything this article shows a troubling trend for Apple. Last year at the peak of interest, 56% said they were interested in the then new iPhone 3G. This year at the peak of interest, that same number is only 44%. Both times of year all the Apple buzz manages to crater RIM interest but it is stuck at the same 23% number. The lowering of Apple peak interest correlates very strongly to the increase in Palm interest.

I'd be worried.

Very true, but the Pre upswing is also the result of a phone release...

[trumptman]

Originally Posted by freeny

Very true, but the Pre upswing is also the result of a phone release...

Want to take bets as to whether Palm is only going to release one phone on one carrier this year?

[bigmc6000]

Originally Posted by freeny

Very true, but the Pre upswing is also the result of a phone release...

While the 3Gs is (as viewed by many) simply a "point" update before something more interesting next year. Considering all they did was beef the specs and didn't change a single physical thing about the phone (the camera is much, much better but still just a spec IMO) and it jumps back to 44% I think says quite a bit. Also, look at it this way - look at the relatively low %'s for the 2G and then a massive jump up to the 3G - that would indicate to me that a lot of people didn't buy the 2G and as such aren't even allowed to buy a new smart phone yet without paying the big bucks (don't feed me AT&T's junk, you have to average over $100 a person to get the 12 month upgrade plan). So, the fact that it's so high despite all the huge number of people that (seemingly) jumped at the 3G says a lot (compared to RIM where they are, seemingly, releasing a new version of something every other month).

[OC4Theo]

Apple has seen its share of this market go from zero to where it is now. It will continue to go up. Unlike the Mac vs Windows saga, this fight is tilted in favor of Apple.

iPhone is not a phone. It is a computer platform disguised as a phone. It is catching up and will soon explode like a wild fire. And the truth is this; the best is yet to come!

[sapporobabyrtrns]

I wish they would include global stats as this is more a true measure of iPhone uptake. The US is just one market. I wonder how the iPhone will do in incumbent markets like Asia, or Europe where Samsung, and Nokia reign. Either way, consumers should come out on the better end of the stick. I am waiting for the iPhone to be released so I can use it alone my N97.

[brucep]

Originally Posted by trumptman

I love Apple as much as the next guy the reasoning in this survey is crap. It basically measures if people are interested in purchasing right after the release and no on way ties that interest to sell through.

Here is the graph since the automated slave cannot add them.



Hey, what a surprise, a bunch of people were interested June a year ago as well and then interested dropped off as Apple did nothing all year.

If anything this article shows a troubling trend for Apple. Last year at the peak of interest, 56% said they were interested in the then new iPhone 3G. This year at the peak of interest, that same number is only 44%. Both times of year all the Apple buzz manages to crater RIM interest but it is stuck at the same 23% number. The lowering of Apple peak interest correlates very strongly to the increase in Palm interest.

I'd be worried.

Really??

APPLE just sold over one million iphones in 3 days and maybe 5 million in 90 or even more. And considering there with AT&T i find the sales amazing.

The $99 Model will be a world wide hit.

I am reminded of the MAD magazine logo "what me worry "

All the numbers mean nothing compared to monster sales and high profit.

9

[anantksundaram]

Originally Posted by teckstud

I can vouch for dat! 4 days and the love grows daily.

I was away for a few days, and must have missed this mega-event altogether! You mean....... you really mean..... you bought an iPhone, you like the iPhone, and you're even OK with ATT?!

So, what's the story in terms of how you reconcile this with your previous (thousands of) posts?

(This is an honest question - not trying to be sarcastic or anything! Swear. )

[lantzn]

Originally Posted by OC4Theo

Apple has seen its share of this market go from zero to where it is now. It will continue to go up. Unlike the Mac vs Windows saga, this fight is tilted in favor of Apple.

iPhone is not a phone. It is a computer platform disguised as a phone. It is catching up and will soon explode like a wild fire. And the truth is this; the best is yet to come!

EXACTLY and lets not forget the $99 3G version that will draw 1000s into the fold, only to upgrade to a newer iPhone when the time comes.

[mstone]

Originally Posted by teckstud

I can vouch for dat! 4 days and the love grows daily.

I guess I can take you off my ignore list now

[Dorotea]

Originally Posted by AppleInsider

Still, one-in-four consumers say the most important reason they’re not considering buying an Apple iPhone is because they don’t like the requirement that they'll have to use AT&T. Similarly, 16% say they won’t buy a Palm Pre because they’d have to use Sprint.

[ View this article at AppleInsider.com ]

I'd buy the iPhone 3GS if I could get a cheaper PHONE contract. The data portion of the contract is fine. I just don't use the phone much. (ATT is ok...not great but ok)

[TenoBell]

Originally Posted by trumptman

I love Apple as much as the next guy the reasoning in this survey is crap. It basically measures if people are interested in purchasing right after the release and no on way ties that interest to sell through.

The point of the article is looking at the initial demand. The initial demand at launch is higher than it is for other popular phones. Of course sales will decrease as demand is met, why do you feel this needs to be pointed out?

Hey, what a surprise, a bunch of people were interested June a year ago as well and then interested dropped off as Apple did nothing all year.

You are indeed the glass half empty type. Sales declined after people bought millions of iPhones and the demand for them was met.

If anything this article shows a troubling trend for Apple. Last year at the peak of interest, 56% said they were interested in the then new iPhone 3G. This year at the peak of interest, that same number is only 44%. Both times of year all the Apple buzz manages to crater RIM interest but it is stuck at the same 23% number. The lowering of Apple peak interest correlates very strongly to the increase in Palm interest.

I don't see this as a significant problem. The point is that their is a hightened excitement and demand for the iPhone. The exact number of people who say they will buy what phone doesn't matter as much. 55% or 45% doesn't matter. What ultimatley matters is the number of people who actually purchase the phone.

I'd be worried.

Yes Apple is doomed.

[cmf2]

Originally Posted by trumptman

I love Apple as much as the next guy the reasoning in this survey is crap. It basically measures if people are interested in purchasing right after the release and no on way ties that interest to sell through.

Here is the graph since the automated slave cannot add them.



Hey, what a surprise, a bunch of people were interested June a year ago as well and then interested dropped off as Apple did nothing all year.

If anything this article shows a troubling trend for Apple. Last year at the peak of interest, 56% said they were interested in the then new iPhone 3G. This year at the peak of interest, that same number is only 44%. Both times of year all the Apple buzz manages to crater RIM interest but it is stuck at the same 23% number. The lowering of Apple peak interest correlates very strongly to the increase in Palm interest.

I'd be worried.

But the pie also got bigger, there are more people buying smartphones than a year ago, and the 3GS sales numbers at release were just as large, if not larger than the 3G. I wouldn't be too worried...

Furthermore, this past year was the year where everyone else finally got into the game. Major shakeups like that wont happen every year. Of course the number of people planning on buying an iPhone dropped when google released a smart phone OS and Palm announced that they were not dead. This next year will be far more telling as Android and Web OS fully establish themselves, and the initial hype dies down (of course Android is a lot further along in the process than Web OS).

[teckstud]

Originally Posted by anantksundaram

I was away for a few days, and must have missed this mega-event altogether! You mean....... you really mean..... you bought an iPhone, you like the iPhone, and you're even OK with ATT?!

So, what's the story in terms of how you reconcile this with your previous (thousands of) posts?

(This is an honest question - not trying to be sarcastic or anything! Swear. )

Well I haven't see the first bill yet.
I've had a few issues with connections but nothing major. It took about 3 hours to be fully up and running. The 3G Safari is sometimes slow but as my friend who's had the iPhone 2years told me - Verizon owns NY.
I love this phone- the camera and video paired with the OS is a dream. I had checked out other Verizon phones ( I was up for a new one) and while they had cameras and video - it was the simplicity in the use that Apple brings that tipped me. I knew I had to have this device eventually and coupled with my b'day I got it Friday. As it was July 3rd most people had fled NY and only 3 people were in the line- it maintainted a 10 deep level for the 45 mins I was there.
I also am diggin the MMS texting on this phone more than any other phone I've ever had. The iChat like display for texting is great.
I just discovered yesterday the button for the vibrate is really not a button (I kept pushing it ) but a slide latch.
I also found an amazing case the next day at a new AT&T store in my hood. It's called a ifrogz and it too is amazing. It's both ergonomic and non slippery.
So to summarize, I reconcile all my prior posts by the fact that the new device itself with that great OS ( I was primed on the Touch) and App store overrides the AT&T issues here in NY. So far, I love it!

[Quadra 610]

Originally Posted by teckstud

You know, you reach a point where you give in (AT&T) because the device at this point is unparalleled. The OS was always fantastic but paired with the new battery/camera/video tipped it over the edge for me.

I had to do a double-take on this. It's like I'm in a parallel dimension.

In any case, I'm happy for ya. you're not just using it, but enjoying it. That's what counts.

[bigmc6000]

Originally Posted by teckstud

Well I haven't see the first bill yet.
I've had a few issues with connections but nothing major. It took about 3 hours to be fully up and running. The 3G Safari is sometimes slow but as my friend who's had the iPhone 2years told me - Verizon owns NY.
I love this phone- the camera and video paired with the OS is a dream. I had checked out other Verizon phones ( I was up for a new one) and while they had cameras and video - it was the simplicity in the use that Apple brings that tipped me. I knew I had to have this device eventually and coupled with my b'day I got it Friday. As it was July 3rd most people had fled NY and only 3 people were in the line- it maintainted a 10 deep level for the 45 mins I was there.
I also am diggin the MMS texting on this phone more than any other phone I've ever had. The iChat like display for texting is great.
I just discovered yesterday the button for the vibrate is really not a button (I kept pushing it ) but a slide latch.
I also found an amazing case the next day at a new AT&T store in my hood. It's called a ifrogz and it too is amazing. It's both ergonomic and non slippery.
So to summarize, I reconcile all my prior posts by the fact that the new device itself with that great OS ( I was primed on the Touch) and App store overrides the AT&T issues here in NY. So far, I love it!

I think they just had their first snow storm in Hell...

[teckstud]

Originally Posted by bigmc6000

I think they just had their first snow storm in Hell...

I know- I've become everything I loathe.
(just kidding! )

[trumptman]

Originally Posted by brucep

Really??

APPLE just sold over one million iphones in 3 days and maybe 5 million in 90 or even more. And considering there with AT&T i find the sales amazing.

The $99 Model will be a world wide hit.

I am reminded of the MAD magazine logo "what me worry "

All the numbers mean nothing compared to monster sales and high profit.

9

The $99 will hurt Apple's margins which will make people worry about the stock.(not high profit) The difference between building the two is very little in terms of cost. Apple had very strong sales out of the gate and that is awesome. That chart doesn't show any difference in the trend from last year where we kept having to read about demand trailing off throughout the year.

Originally Posted by TenoBell

The point of the article is looking at the initial demand. The initial demand at launch is higher than it is for other popular phones. Of course sales will decrease as demand is met, why do you feel this needs to be pointed out?

Because the headline is completely misleading. If it said half of smartphone buyers in JUNE, it might have a point. The real point is as you intelligently note. There is huge initial demand that is met and then trails off. Also it notes they will buy an iPhone with no proof that interest leads to the sell being made. To do this, they should include a chart that shows the quarterly sales figures for RIM, Apple and PALM and correlates the interest to the sales.

You are indeed the glass half empty type. Sales declined after people bought millions of iPhones and the demand for them was met.

It isn't about optimism or pessimism. It is about controlling expectations and managing the narrative. If you equate interest to sales and the sales don't match, then people can claim that Apple had captured the interest but not the sale and thus something is wrong with them.

That would be called not giving competitors ammo.

I don't see this as a significant problem. The point is that their is a hightened excitement and demand for the iPhone. The exact number of people who say they will buy what phone doesn't matter as much. 55% or 45% doesn't matter. What ultimatley matters is the number of people who actually purchase the phone.

You see the point perfectly. Surveys of interest are not sales and an article that claims they are can do more harm than good.

Yes Apple is doomed.

I'm very worried for Apple right now. The Pre is far from perfect but it is shocking how quickly someone who is not Apple rolls out products. They have already announced the GSM version of the Pre rolling out in the fall on O2 and Movistar by end of year. AT&T is supposed to get the $99 version of the WebOS phone called the EOS in the second half of 2009. Then at the beginning of 2010 it will be on Verizon.

I'm very glad that Apple sold so many phone so quickly. However you have competitors that are going to be playing catch up and jumping on every carrier including AT&T in the next seven months while Apple will sit on the 3GS and then begin trickling out details for the fourth version of the iPhone hardware and OS. RIM won't be sitting still either.

Marketing and interest are not sales. They are better than no interest but they are not sales.

[joe in miami]

I checked it out last weekend. I found the keyboard buttons way too small. No comparison when the iPhone's in landscape mode.

[bigmc6000]

Originally Posted by trumptman

Because the headline is completely misleading. If it said half of smartphone buyers in JUNE, it might have a point. The real point is as you intelligently note. There is huge initial demand that is met and then trails off. Also it notes they will buy an iPhone with no proof that interest leads to the sell being made. To do this, they should include a chart that shows the quarterly sales figures for RIM, Apple and PALM and correlates the interest to the sales.

You see the point perfectly. Surveys of interest are not sales and an article that claims they are can do more harm than good.

No one has ever claimed that 50% interest equals 50% of purchases but it's a completely fool hardy argument to say that more people interested in a product won't result in higher sales. They've been doing polls like this for decades upon decades and we all (well, lest for a few people) realize it isn't an exact correlation but it does provide for a tendency of those who are thinking about (in this case) buying a smart phone.

I will guarantee you every penny to my name that the Pre will not outsell the iPhone even tho you claim the %'s in this study don't matter at all.

[monstrosity]

Originally Posted by trumptman

The lowering of Apple peak interest correlates very strongly to the increase in Palm interest.

I seriously doubt it!

The 3gs simply isn't as big a leap in technology as Apple's other updates. Simple as that.

[anantksundaram]

Originally Posted by trumptman

However you have competitors that are going to be playing catch up and jumping on every carrier including AT&T in the next seven months while Apple will sit on the 3GS and then begin trickling out details for the fourth version of the iPhone hardware and OS. RIM won't be sitting still either.

And SJ & Co. are standing still?

Yeah, Apple is doomed.

[mitchell_pgh]

Originally Posted by bigmc6000

While the 3Gs is (as viewed by many) simply a "point" update before something more interesting next year. Considering all they did was beef the specs and didn't change a single physical thing about the phone (the camera is much, much better but still just a spec IMO) and it jumps back to 44% I think says quite a bit. Also, look at it this way - look at the relatively low %'s for the 2G and then a massive jump up to the 3G - that would indicate to me that a lot of people didn't buy the 2G and as such aren't even allowed to buy a new smart phone yet without paying the big bucks (don't feed me AT&T's junk, you have to average over $100 a person to get the 12 month upgrade plan). So, the fact that it's so high despite all the huge number of people that (seemingly) jumped at the 3G says a lot (compared to RIM where they are, seemingly, releasing a new version of something every other month).

One key item you seem to be overlooking is that phones carry contracts... and nobody knew about the original iPhone before it was released. This caused the slower addoption rate for the 2G iPhone. It was also a completely new platform, had no applications, was missing features, and had a high price, ($500 and $600? What were they thinking!!!)

The 3G was a major success because it gave consumers enough time to let their contracts end and review the progress of the OS (looking back, iPhone OS 1.0 was clunky at best). Also, it permitted the evangelists to spread the good word.

I was one of those people that can't upgrade until Dec. so a new iPhone is out of the question ($500 for an upgrade is ridiculous, especially considering the rather minor upgrades)

P.S. Thank goodness they didn't upgrade the physical dimensions!!! There were enough issues with the 3g bump!

[teckstud]

Originally Posted by monstrosity

I seriously doubt that!

The 3gs simply isn't as big a leap in technology as Apple's other updates. Simple as that.

Why would it be? The first was - the first. The second had 3G - which was major. Does it claim to have a whole new OS or 4G?
It is however a refinement of the prior phone and now contains features that appeal to more people (MMS, Video)- hence its overwhelming popularity with new buyers.
(I'd never thought I'd be defending the iPhone-)

[teckstud]

Originally Posted by joe in miami

I checked it out last weekend. I found the keyboard buttons way too small. No comparison when the iPhone's in landscape mode.

I too check it out- the Pre felt so plasticy it was ridiculous. The keys felt like someone had spilled a soda on them.

[cameronj]

Originally Posted by mitchell_pgh

One key item you seem to be overlooking is that phones carry contracts... and nobody knew about the original iPhone before it was released. This caused the slower addoption rate for the 2G iPhone. It was also a completely new platform, had no applications, was missing features, and had a high price, ($500 and $600? What were they thinking!!!)

Indeed, what were they thinking....

Oh wait.... they sold every iPhone they could make, and had shortages as it was. And they got a percentage of every monthly bill because the phone was unsubsidized.

Those Apple corporate types, they're such idiots.

[TenoBell]

Originally Posted by trumptman

The $99 will hurt Apple's margins which will make people worry about the stock.(not high profit) The difference between building the two is very little in terms of cost. Apple had very strong sales out of the gate and that is awesome. That chart doesn't show any difference in the trend from last year where we kept having to read about demand trailing off throughout the year.

The $99 iPhone is using components that are two years old. I'm sure at this point the costs of making the 3G are so low that Apple can sell it for $99 while maintaining margins.

The point of the chart wasn't to show the long trend of iPhone sales, they were only talking about initial sales. Sales of everything trail off over the long term.

Because the headline is completely misleading. If it said half of smartphone buyers in JUNE, it might have a point. The real point is as you intelligently note. There is huge initial demand that is met and then trails off. Also it notes they will buy an iPhone with no proof that interest leads to the sell being made. To do this, they should include a chart that shows the quarterly sales figures for RIM, Apple and PALM and correlates the interest to the sales.

Yes I suppose the headline could be misleading if you read it as saying half of smartphone buyers want the iPhone in general. But I fully understood they are only talking about the current period when there is a new one.

Their is no proof of what sales will be, because this is a projection of the future. We have to wait and see what sales will actually turn out to be.

It isn't about optimism or pessimism. It is about controlling expectations and managing the narrative. If you equate interest to sales and the sales don't match, then people can claim that Apple had captured the interest but not the sale and thus something is wrong with them.

Just because a survey says 44% of consumers want an iPhone, no one expects literally 44% of consumers will buy an iPhone.

I'm very worried for Apple right now. The Pre is far from perfect but it is shocking how quickly someone who is not Apple rolls out products.

The Pre wasn't quick at all. It took Palm years to introduce a new OS. To finally get the Pre they had to hire Apple engineers.

I'm very glad that Apple sold so many phone so quickly. However you have competitors that are going to be playing catch up and jumping on every carrier including AT&T in the next seven months while Apple will sit on the 3GS and then begin trickling out details for the fourth version of the iPhone hardware and OS. RIM won't be sitting still either.

People have been saying others will catch up since January 2007 when the iPhone was announced. There is no mobile OS current or on the horizon that takes on the iPhone. The Pre is good but not good enough.

[TenoBell]

Actually from a hardware perspective the 3GS is a big leap, performance has been doubled. Most of the components in the 3G were exactly the same as the original iPhone. The crucial difference that helped sell the 3G was being sold subsidized. $199 is a lot more attractive than $499.

Originally Posted by monstrosity

The 3gs simply isn't as big a leap in technology as Apple's other updates. Simple as that.

[teckstud]

Originally Posted by TenoBell

Actually from a hardware perspective the 3GS is a big leap, performance has been doubled. Most of the components in the 3G were exactly the same as the original iPhone. The bi difference that helped sell the 3G was being sold subsidized. $199 is a lot more attractive than $499.

Not to mention- double the storage value! I bought the 32gb.

[cmf2]

Originally Posted by trumptman

I'm very worried for Apple right now. The Pre is far from perfect but it is shocking how quickly someone who is not Apple rolls out products. They have already announced the GSM version of the Pre rolling out in the fall on O2 and Movistar by end of year. AT&T is supposed to get the $99 version of the WebOS phone called the EOS in the second half of 2009. Then at the beginning of 2010 it will be on Verizon.

The Pre was the phone that was announced (and had working prototypes) in January and launched 6 months later in June with limited supplies. I wouldn't really consider that moving fast. Apple launched the 3GS in what? 8 countries on launch day? Yet it matched the opening weekend launch sales of the 3G (which appeared to be a larger update at the time and launched in many more contries), although pre-sales helped. There will be continued demand as the 3GS launches elsewhere, which leads me to my next point. China. Apple is on the verge of breaking into the worlds largest cellular market, and you are very worried about Apple?

Not to mention that Apple doesn't rely on the iPhone for all their revenue. They also have iPods, Macs, and Apple TV (which has the potential to take off with a good revision). They stagger the launches of all these products throughout the year so that they have a lot of these jumps in revnue throughout the year (and to avoid making the consumer choose between two recently launched Apple products at the same time).

Going back to the iPhone. It sells itself, no other phone will be able to match the self marketing that the iPhone has, even if they are better. You are right that Apple being tied to AT&T is a weakness now, but it is also what allowed the iPhone to come into existence. There will be a time when AT&T loses exclusivity, and there will be another jump in iPhone sales, but I wouldn't worry too much about Apple struggling before that happens. Other manufacturers should worry about that time though...

[cmf2]

Originally Posted by teckstud

Not to mention- double the storage value! I bought the 32gb.

That is what surprised me the most about the chart. More people were planning on buying the 16 GB 3GS. That extra $100 is really just a drop in the bucket when compared to the overall cost of the phone including the contract. The 32 GB version was sold out at the first place I tried, I'm glad I kept looking didn't buy the 16 GB version there.

[Neil Anderson]

Originally Posted by teckstud

So far, I love it!

Tell me that Techstud is on vacation and his mom is posting for him.

[cameronj]

Originally Posted by cmf2

That is what surprised me the most about the chart. More people were planning on buying the 16 GB 3GS. That extra $100 is really just a drop in the bucket when compared to the overall cost of the phone including the contract. The 32 GB version was sold out at the first place I tried, I'm glad I kept looking didn't buy the 16 GB version there.

While it costs little more, that extra 16 GB of storage will sit empty on most of the phones where it is installed. Most people can't fathom how they'd fill that much storage. Until video downloads (rather than streaming) becomes more popular on the iPhone, people won't see much purpose in going for 32+ GB.

[ghostface147]

Originally Posted by cmf2

There will be a time when AT&T loses exclusivity, and there will be another jump in iPhone sales, but I wouldn't worry too much about Apple struggling before that happens. Other manufacturers should worry about that time though...

Agreed. Imagine the market share of smartphones if the iPhone was available to all major providers. Add on top of that any kind of rural providers like US Cellular, if they are ever given the opportunity that is. But when that day comes, will the other major carriers also handle the onslaught of data usage that iPhone users are generally known for? I know we tax ATT's network heavily, but does anyone agree that other carriers will suffer the same fate in some way? If anything, this would expose the US cell network even more than what is known now........old and generally outdated compared to the rest of the world.