Strong MacBook and iPhone sales to propel Apple stock - Report

[AppleInsider]

One week before Apple is set to report its third-quarter earnings, Minneapolis-based market analysis firm Piper Jaffray released a report suggesting the computer and portable device maker could beat street estimates on strong Mac and iPhone sales.

Given the recent successful launch of the iPhone 3GS and demand for the new unibody 13-inch MacBook Pro, the report, by senior research analyst Gene Munster, predicts that shares of AAPL stock will rise over the next three months.

Since Apple dropped the price of its 13-inch MacBook Pro to $1,199, demand has outpaced supply – so much so that the purchase lead-time is at levels not before seen by Piper Jaffray, which tracks turnaround for hardware orders.

“Our records show that Apple has never had a 7-10 day delay on its most popular 13" model, with the most recent significant delay being 5-7 days over 2 years,” the report states. “We see this as a sign that demand is outpacing the company's build expectations, and it may take several weeks to reach a supply demand equilibrium.”

While the lower price has been a boon for sales, it could also hurt Apple’s bottom line. For the upcoming September quarter, Munster predicts that Apple’s fiscal year-ending guidance will come in below the consensus earnings per share of $1.29, with the company’s margins reduced by new pricing schemes. Such numbers are expected because of Apple’s traditionally conservative guidance to investors.



Shortages of Apple's mainstream notebook offerings come just weeks after the company kicked off its back-to-school promotion offering students a free iPod touch with each Mac purchase. Apple also rebranded its 13-inch unibody MacBooks as more premium offerings under the MacBook Pro moniker.

And the launch of the iPhone 3GS in June led cell phone carrier AT&T to its single-best sales day of all time. However, Munster noted, there is a caveat in the success of the iPhone 3GS: The analyst predicts Apple sold 5 million iPhones in the third quarter, which is a reduction from the 6.9 million units sold during the launch quarter of the iPhone 3G.

“The 3GS was launched in just 8 countries this year (vs. the 3G in 21 countries last year),” the Piper Jaffrays report states, “so the international units will likely be weaker.”

Still, sales of the iPhone 3GS are beyond internal expectations from both AT&T and Apple.

The picture isn’t as rosy for iPod sales. Munster predicts a 7 percent year-to-year decrease in sales, though that total would be better than the street-expected 14 percent drop.



Looking ahead, Munster predicts Apple to offer guidance for the September quarter in-line with the market consensus of $9 billion in revenue. As of Tuesday morning, Apple’s stock was selling for around $142 per share. Maintaining an “overweight” classification for the stock (meaning that it carries more value than other companies in the same sector), Piper Jaffray has a price target of $180 for AAPL over the next 12 months. Apple will report its third-quarter earnings on July 21.

[ View this article at AppleInsider.com ]

[macFanDave]

That 13" MacBook Pro at $1199 ($1099 for the edu. discount) is and exceptional breakthrough for Apple. It is a giant leap in value. My daughter and I tried one out this weekend at an Apple Store and it really exceeds my expectations having read the specs. As soon as she promises me it is not going to be just an Internet appliance, I'm getting her one.

The solid feel of the unibody construction is one of those things you can't put a price tag on, but it contributes to making the product feel better. I wish there were a way to test the backlit keyboard at the store, because my daughter is especially excited about that!

[anantksundaram]

Ah, the usual pre-earnings FUD starts up again.

Noise-trading time......

[striker_kk]

"Back to School" is such a hit!

[saarek]

I dunno, usually good news makes Apples stock go lower, Apples investors are a bit retarded sometimes!

[astephens]

Covering the sensor next to the camera in the lid will turn on back lighting.

[dreyfus2]

Originally Posted by AppleInsider

“Our records show that Apple has never had a 7-10 day delay on its most popular 13" model, with the most recent significant delay being 5-7 days over 2 years,” the report states. “We see this as a sign that demand is outpacing the company's build expectations, and it may take several weeks to reach a supply demand equilibrium.”

While I am sure that MBP sales skyrocket, the above has been debunked several times. Apple has a shortage of 250 GB drives. Upgrade the 13" or 15" model showing 7-10 days lead time (both have the 250 GB HD standard) and configure them with a different HD and the lead time is gone. Also, looking at the "Top Sellers" box in the Apple store, it reads "1. MacBook, 2. iMac, 3. MacBook Pro" since almost two weeks. So, at least in Apple's own online store, the one white model is still outselling all 13, 15 and 17" MBPs combined?! Of course, the picture might be different with physical stores and resellers.

[Quadra 610]

People are buyng the MBP. Macbooks and Macbook Pros are great products. No cheap, low-brow laptop-hunter ads from MS can change that. Apple's notebook line has been extremely successful since the move to Intel back in late '05. Constantly tops in satisfaction surveys, top sellers, you name it.

Apple has amazing command of the Premium end of the market, and even those that purchase below that level are buying in.

[AjitMD]

Just like Apple redefined the smart phone market with the iPhone, it will have to redefine the laptop/touch tablet market. Most of these laptops are looking about the same... good screens, so so batteries, same old apps. OK, better than Windows laptops, but not disruptive enough. With a touch tablet, lap top category, Apple has the change to redefine the game. It will be the apps that will drive demand in addition to better functionality and portability.

The current line up is just browser based and that has to be changed. Don't want to be tied to a phone carrier.

[solipsism]

Originally Posted by AjitMD

Just like Apple redefined the smart phone market with the iPhone, it will have to redefine the laptop/touch tablet market.

The rumour of a tablet/netbook for $800 coming in September are feeling more and more true.

[al_bundy]

Any guesses on when the next mac mini upgrade is coming? I might jump to the dark side since you can also run windows on it and I don't want to spend more than $600 for a computer

[Hattig]

Originally Posted by al_bundy

Any guesses on when the next mac mini upgrade is coming? I might jump to the dark side since you can also run windows on it and I don't want to spend more than $600 for a computer

Probably 2013 given past upgrade performance.

Nah, it might be next February or something. I know your pain though as I would buy one if the spec was better.

[sailing_badger]

I originally was going for the mini after making the choice of switching from pc to mac. But with the clear benefits of the MBP and at the new great price I decided the MBP was the one to choose. Well done Mac!

[Neil Anderson]

I thought the aluminum MacBooks were good value before other than the missing FireWire. Since going MacBook Pro the 13" are great value compared to other laptops out there. And the present Education sale makes it even more attractive.

[al_bundy]

Originally Posted by sailing_badger

I originally was going for the mini after making the choice of switching from pc to mac. But with the clear benefits of the MBP and at the new great price I decided the MBP was the one to choose. Well done Mac!

nice price on the mbp, but still too much for me. Quality and support is better than Dell but is it worth the extra $1000 over the price of a cheapo Dell laptop? At $600 for a Dell laptop I can buy a new one every year and not care if it dies on me.

[cameronj]

Originally Posted by al_bundy

nice price on the mbp, but still too much for me. Quality and support is better than Dell but is it worth the extra $1000 over the price of a cheapo Dell laptop? At $600 for a Dell laptop I can buy a new one every year and not care if it dies on me.

You wouldn't care if you had to buy, configure and migrate to a new laptop every year? What's your hourly rate? I'd like to hire you to work for my company, if you're so willing to do all that work for nothing

[Macbrewer]

$600 Dell won't hold a candle to the MBP. I could switch to all K-mart clothes for a year, but I think I won't.

[brucep]

Originally Posted by al_bundy

Any guesses on when the next mac mini upgrade is coming? I might jump to the dark side since you can also run windows on it and I don't want to spend more than $600 for a computer

goodbye
enjoy your fantastic dell

[al_bundy]

For a home laptop it takes a few hours to install windows, applications and restore data. I don't keep anything in default folders for easy backup and restore.

I get my copies of winders from Msdn and avoid all the problems with the crapware HP and Dell load on their machines. My vista and windows 7 computers run for a month or 2 without reboots.

Got a free G4 last week but seems I can't run anything on it. Home pc is getting old and I thought about a mini instead of building another pc again.

[macosxp]

Originally Posted by macFanDave

That 13" MacBook Pro at $1199 ($1099 for the edu. discount) is and exceptional breakthrough for Apple. It is a giant leap in value. My daughter and I tried one out this weekend at an Apple Store and it really exceeds my expectations having read the specs. As soon as she promises me it is not going to be just an Internet appliance, I'm getting her one.

The solid feel of the unibody construction is one of those things you can't put a price tag on, but it contributes to making the product feel better. I wish there were a way to test the backlit keyboard at the store, because my daughter is especially excited about that!

Good value as it may be, make SURE before you plunk down $1k that you will not mind the super-glossy display. It's annoying to some people, not annoying to others, but just make sure before you buy it that you don't end up regretting your decision. Apple still makes the regular MacBook with a less-gloss display and you guys may prefer that for the screen.

Unless you'll be getting a 3rd party external monitor for any use that's not on-the-go...

[macFanDave]

Originally Posted by macosxp

Good value as it may be, make SURE before you plunk down $1k that you will not mind the super-glossy display. It's annoying to some people, not annoying to others, but just make sure before you buy it that you don't end up regretting your decision. Apple still makes the regular MacBook with a less-gloss display and you guys may prefer that for the screen.

Unless you'll be getting a 3rd party external monitor for any use that's not on-the-go...

We've been "borrowing" my father-in-law's MacBook with glossy screen for a while and we are not bothered by it at all.

[Wiggin]

Originally Posted by al_bundy

Any guesses on when the next mac mini upgrade is coming? I might jump to the dark side since you can also run windows on it and I don't want to spend more than $600 for a computer

I wouldn't expect anything other than very minor incremental upgrades for at least a year. It's been upgraded to miniDisplayPort and FW800, so don't expect anything new on the ports and connectors front anytime soon. Barring some fallout between Apple and NVIDIA, don't expect any motherboard changes.

Holding out for what is sure to be a very minor CPU speed bump doesn't make much sense. RAM and drive upgrades are relatively cheap. So you could wait, hoping for something a little better at the same price a year from now. Or pay a little extra (for RAM + drive upgrades) and begin enjoying a new computer tomorrow.

[elroth]

Originally Posted by al_bundy

nice price on the mbp, but still too much for me. Quality and support is better than Dell but is it worth the extra $1000 over the price of a cheapo Dell laptop? At $600 for a Dell laptop I can buy a new one every year and not care if it dies on me.

So you can afford to buy a $600 Dell every year, but can't afford a $1200 Mac that will easily last 3 years (and still be a very good computer), or last 5 years if you don't need to upgrade to higher specs?

How's that accounting degree working out for you?

[Dr Millmoss]

Munster is still more bullish on AAPL than most analysts. His target is more than $20 above the consensus.

Also, a $2.00 after hours jump. Responding to this report perhaps?

[Abster2core]

Originally Posted by cameronj

You wouldn't care if you had to buy, configure and migrate to a new laptop every year? What's your hourly rate? I'd like to hire you to work for my company, if you're so willing to do all that work for nothing

Careful. For sure you will get what you paid for. But at the same time, it will be more than you want.

[Angelchild]

IMPORTANT

For Appleinsider.

There is a serious misunderstanding in the post. AI wrote:
The analyst predicts Apple sold 5 million iPhones in the third quarter, which is a reduction from the 6.9 million units sold during the launch quarter of the iPhone 3G.

Apple has sold 6,9M iPhones NOT in Q3 2008 BUT in Q4 2008. So its not quite correct to compare Q309 with Q408.

The Q4 goes from july to september and Apple sold 6,9 millions iPhones from July to September of 2008, NOT from April to June that is the third quater.

Apple is still on track to beat 6,9 reached in fourth quarter of 2008.

The post has to be corrected on that point.

[cameronj]

Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss

Munster is still more bullish on AAPL than most analysts. His target is more than $20 above the consensus.

Also, a $2.00 after hours jump. Responding to this report perhaps?

No. Responding to Intel's profit and guidance.

[Dr Millmoss]

Originally Posted by cameronj

No. Responding to Intel's profit and guidance.

So it would seem, even though the EU antitrust fine caused them to report a loss in the quarter. It's a strange world we live in, as if we didn't know.

[al_bundy]

Originally Posted by Wiggin

I wouldn't expect anything other than very minor incremental upgrades for at least a year. It's been upgraded to miniDisplayPort and FW800, so don't expect anything new on the ports and connectors front anytime soon. Barring some fallout between Apple and NVIDIA, don't expect any motherboard changes.

Holding out for what is sure to be a very minor CPU speed bump doesn't make much sense. RAM and drive upgrades are relatively cheap. So you could wait, hoping for something a little better at the same price a year from now. Or pay a little extra (for RAM + drive upgrades) and begin enjoying a new computer tomorrow.

Don't care about CPU speed that much. I'll take larger HD, better graphics and more memory over CPU.

[al_bundy]

Originally Posted by elroth

So you can afford to buy a $600 Dell every year, but can't afford a $1200 Mac that will easily last 3 years (and still be a very good computer), or last 5 years if you don't need to upgrade to higher specs?

How's that accounting degree working out for you?

That's in case it goes bad. HP is made pretty bad but almost every dell I've seen and used lasts for years. I have a 5 year old laptop I just gave my inlaws

I've always built new desktops for myself but don't feel like doing it anymore. Not into buying the $600 super duper video cards with fans that sound like jet engines

[Quadra 610]

Originally Posted by macosxp

Good value as it may be, make SURE before you plunk down $1k that you will not mind the super-glossy display. It's annoying to some people, not annoying to others, but just make sure before you buy it that you don't end up regretting your decision. Apple still makes the regular MacBook with a less-gloss display and you guys may prefer that for the screen.

Unless you'll be getting a 3rd party external monitor for any use that's not on-the-go...

Most notebooks today have glossy displays. Looks like consumers prefer them. Makes the colours look richer and deeper. Plus, they're a snap to clean. It's not Apple's fault that glossy sells. And the whole glare issue is grossly overstated.

[DocNo42]

Originally Posted by al_bundy

but almost every dell I've seen and used lasts for years.

Not their new ones The Lattitude E6400 that replaces the Latitude D630 is a dud. We've had high failure rates and real reliability issues and there are scathing reviews on Dell's own web site. For the first time in a long time I'm looking elsewhere for a work laptop (probably a Panasonic Toughbook - they have some really nice models!).

[Dr Millmoss]

Originally Posted by Quadra 610

And the whole glare issue is grossly overstated.

But you can't say it's been glossed over.