Nokia stock nosedives as Apple gains on market leader

[AppleInsider]

Shares of Nokia tumbled this week, as the world's largest handset maker believes its market share will recede over the next year, while competitor Apple sees continued growth with the iPhone platform.

Analysts said that Nokia Oyj would not be able to keep up with Apple without an App Store-like alternative. As a result, Bloomberg said, Nokia's stock took its biggest hit in five years, dropping 15 percent, or $8.6 billion in value.

Though Nokia isn't as big a player in the U.S. as Apple, Research in Motion, or even Motorola, the global company commands a majority of the smartphone and cellphone market worldwide. Nokia estimated its smartphone market share was 41 percent for the second quarter of 2009, while the overall market share was 38 percent. In 2005, Nokia held 62 percent of the smartphone market.

As Nokia loses some ground, Apple continues to lead the industry in year-over-year growth.

To address investor concerns, Nokia announced Thursday its response to the App Store: Symbian Horizon.

"We're starting small and can only work with a limited number of apps initially," the site reads, "so sign up now to be one of the first apps to make it big via Symbian Horizon."

As Nokia struggles to retain its stature, a rumor emerged this week that the handset maker could buy rival manufacturer Palm. This as market watchers like Barron's told investors it was time to dump their Nokia stock.

Saying the sale of Nokia shares is an "easy call," Barron's said the company should be dominating the cell phone market, not losing ground.

"Nokia could eventually turn the discussion away from snazzy colors and back to the functions of a phone," the story reads. "The smartphone market was Nokia's game to lose, in other words. How humbling, then, for the company to see its buzz usurped by Apple's iPhone, Palm's Pre smartphone, and the latest models of BlackBerry from Research in Motion."

[melgross]

It's interesting that reports are coming out that say the Nokia has no products that compete with Apple, RIM, Palm, and Even one new Toshiba phone.

The N97 is being pounded in reviews, and in the forums.

One report even said that Nokia is having "a Motorola moment".

They are in big trouble.

[Roos24]

Wow. Yesterday Microsoft, today Nokia. Apple does make waves...

[Quadra 610]

Lousy phones + Symbian.

Hardly surprising.

[Bageljoey]

Originally Posted by Roos24

Wow. Yesterday Microsoft, today Nokia. Apple does make waves...

Don't forget, they "wrecked" AT&T a few days ago...

[teckstud]

And to think solipism was suggesting I buy a Nokia because of their great cameras instead of my amazing new iPhone?

[solipsism]

Originally Posted by melgross

It's interesting that reports are coming out that say the Nokia has no products that compete with Apple, RIM, Palm, and Even one new Toshiba phone.

The N97 is being pounded in reviews, and in the forums.

One report even said that Nokia is having "a Motorola moment".

They are in big trouble.

From what I’m told, the N97 “feels” as fast as the 3GS which is liekly in many tasks considering it’s not using the hefty OS X, but it still has half the 3G radio bandwidth capability with only 3.6Mbps, an ARM11(ARM v6) at 434MHz with 128MB RAM. For this to be Nokia’s flapship smartphone it seems remiss to not to at leastoffer the Cortex A8 (ARM v7), which adds power and battery performance. I hope they are working on something great over in Finland. I’ll be watching their news seeing if they look like a good company to invest in.

[teckstud]

Originally Posted by melgross

One report even said that Nokia is having "a Motorola moment".

They are in big trouble.

You snooze, you loose.

[Bageljoey]

Originally Posted by teckstud

And to think solipism was suggesting I buy a Nokia because of their great cameras instead of my amazing new iPhone?

He is just negative about everything Apple--there are some like that on these boards...

[melgross]

Originally Posted by solipsism

From what I’m told, the N97 “feels” as fast as the 3GS which is liekly in many tasks considering it’s not using the hefty OS X, but it still has half the 3G radio bandwidth capability with only 3.6Mbps, an ARM11(ARM v6) at 434MHz with 128MB RAM. For this to be Nokia’s flapship smartphone it seems remiss to not to at leastoffer the Cortex A8 (ARM v7), which adds power and battery performance. I hope they are working on something great over in Finland. I’ll be watching their news seeing if they look like a good company to invest in.

I don't know who told you that, but reviews are saying that the phone is slow, feels slow, is choppy, and is underpowered.

Apple abandoned the Arm 11, Palm didn't bother with it for the Pre, but Nokia, for it's latest, most expensive Superphone uses it at about 435 MHz.

That's being said is an insult.

The "touch" screen also still relies on a resistive panel. It's said to be insensitive. One reviewer showed a video of him trying to get the thing to respond, and ended up dropping it on to the table in disgust.

The keyboard is being criticized for having the space "key" at the left side of the keyboard rather than below. A lot of odd problems.

Also, Symbian now seems to be a paraphrasing of the old Win 3.1 with DOS, rather than a system that's designed to do what it should. at least a couple of reviewers said that Nokia should abandon it, and there are hints that nokia may be looking to Android, or some other Linux based system.

Read some of the reviews.

[teckstud]

Originally Posted by Bageljoey

He is just negative about everything Apple--there are some like that on these boards...

You know what I'm saying?

[solipsism]

Originally Posted by teckstud

And to think solipism was suggesting I buy a Nokia because of their great cameras instead of my amazing new iPhone?

And to think that this article has anything to do with Nokia’s cameras, your constant trumpeting of how infallible Verizon is, while stating that AT&T sucks everywhere for everybody, and that the iPhone camera sucks. All of which are reasons I told you to buy a Nokia phone and not the iPhone. Better that Nokia forums cater to your bitchfest that good folk here at AI. In comparison to most Nokia phones the iPhone camera is still lacking with only 3Mpx, of which you stated that 5Mpx was the minimum the iPhone should have.

[teckstud]

Originally Posted by solipsism

And to think that this article has anything to do with Nokia’s cameras, your constant trumpeting of how infallible Verizon is, while stating that AT&T sucks everywhere for everybody, and that the iPhone camera sucks. In comparison to most Nokia phones the iPhone camera is still lacking with only 3Mpx and the fact that with comments like the one I quoted you are trying to throw off these threads. All of which are reasons I told you to buy a Nokia phone and not the iPhone. Better that Nokia forums cater to your bitchfest that good folk at AI.

All right- enough. You can't take a joke now?
SORRY.

(btw- I love my 3Gs video making, sharp picture taking 3.0 Mp camera- for the record)

[Quadra 610]

LOL.

Let's all get along. Even Teckstud likes his iPhone. There just might be a God after all.

Anyway, seriously, Nokia's been asleep at the wheel for years now. This is what they get.

As for Motorola . . . they should just go dark for a year and completely rethink their strategy. Reshuffle management, or bring someone in who knows what they're doing. There's no point in "me too" phone rollouts.

[anantksundaram]

Nokia is today in the same situation that an Ericsson was 10 years ago: still riding high, but with major signs of strain from lack of ability to innovate.

They will probably end up getting Dell-ed by companies like Apple.

[solipsism]

Originally Posted by anantksundaram

Nokia is today in the same situation that an Ericsson was 10 years ago: still riding high, but with major signs of strain from lack of ability to innovate.

They will probably end up getting Dell-ed by companies like Apple.

They might, but Nokia still has a rabid following in many countries that I don’t think will dwindle quickly like other vendors would. Even Apple during its dark years still maintained a loyal following. I’m hoping that the N97 is just a placeholder for a new flagship device that will really be a true competitor in the modern media-phone market.

One thing I really like about Nokia, and thus wish them to succeed, is that they have made honest statements as to what their faults are. You just don’t get that from most companies.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by solipsism

They might, but Nokia still has a rabid following in many countries that I don’t think will dwindle quickly like other vendors would. Even Apple during its dark years still maintained a loyal following. I’m hoping that the N97 is just a placeholder for a new flagship device that will really be a true competitor in the modern media-phone market.

One thing I really like about Nokia, and thus wish them to succeed, is that they have made honest statements as to what their faults are. You just don’t get that from most companies.

They said what they had to. The same thing Dell is saying. The economy is bad, blah, blah, blah.

[MacTel]

Originally Posted by Roos24

Wow. Yesterday Microsoft, today Nokia. Apple does make waves...

Tomorrow Google. ;-) More likely we'll need to stay-tuned on that one.

[Dr Millmoss]

Originally Posted by melgross

One report even said that Nokia is having "a Motorola moment".

Ouch. Ow. Ow. This is shorthand for "completely lost and clueless."

[anantksundaram]

Originally Posted by solipsism

They might, but Nokia still has a rabid following in many countries that I don’t think will dwindle quickly like other vendors would. Even Apple during its dark years still maintained a loyal following. I’m hoping that the N97 is just a placeholder for a new flagship device that will really be a true competitor in the modern media-phone market.

One thing I really like about Nokia, and thus wish them to succeed, is that they have made honest statements as to what their faults are. You just don’t get that from most companies.

It is (perhaps 'was' is the operative word) no doubt a great company.

But they underestimated Apple. Just as, I believe, RIM continues to do today.

I (vaguely) recall that that Nokia shrugged off the iPhone when originally introduced, with a somewhat condescending view along the lines of (I am paraphrasing) "Yeah, a cute device that can play some music, but 2G!? What does Apple know about this space...."

[dreyfus2]

Originally Posted by solipsism

From what I’m told, the N97 “feels” as fast as the 3GS which is liekly in many tasks considering it’s not using the hefty OS X, but it still has half the 3G radio bandwidth capability with only 3.6Mbps, an ARM11(ARM v6) at 434MHz with 128MB RAM. For this to be Nokia’s flapship smartphone it seems remiss to not to at leastoffer the Cortex A8 (ARM v7), which adds power and battery performance. I hope they are working on something great over in Finland. I’ll be watching their news seeing if they look like a good company to invest in.

Seriously, I have been testing the N97 for almost three weeks for a German paper. I edited the review twice to remove appropriate strong language before submitting it, and even after my self-censorship the responsible editor was giving me a strange look ("that bad?"). Nothing about this device feels anywhere as fast as the 3GS, actually a lot of things feel slower than the 3G. The build quality is OK, not as good as the iPhone (far from it), but light-years ahead of the Pre and the keyboard is quite good. The real disaster no. 1 is the OS and their App Store copy is disaster no. 2. If this is all the world's leading cell phone maker can do, they should go out of business. The OS is unresponsive and downright illogical, once you depart the home screen, it is one unholy mess. And the Ovi Store, well, it's even messier. A wild mix of apps, wallpapers, sound files and media content with no structure or style. Disgusting would be an understatement. Honestly, I think we will see a decent Android smartphone by Motorola long before Nokia finally decides to drop this Symbian crap (or at least use it for dumbphones only). Symbian is hopeless.

[jodyfanning]

Can you get any more wrong.

Nokia's app store is Ovi, the Symbian thing is something totally different.

And Nokia's smartphone market share is UP from Q1 this year.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by jodyfanning

Can you get any more wrong.

Nokia's app store is Ovi, the Symbian thing is something totally different.

And Nokia's smartphone market share is UP from Q1 this year.

Have you a link for that?

I have one quick one from March. I'll post another if I see it.


http://www.engadget.com/2009/03/11/n...re-to-rim-app/

Here's a newer one. The marketshare for their smartphones ia abut the same as the quarter before. Fractions of a percent are tough to gauge.


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aMEAIizeet0I

[monstrosity]

Nokia are doomed.

It is written.

[daratbastid]

lol at SJ in the original keynote saying he just wanted a "piece" of the market... now they are chiseling away at the big dog

[AjitMD]

Nokia is yesterday's news. They did well when it was just the phone with easy to manufacture phones, economies of scale and a easy to use phone interface. Now the game has changed... at least for profits. The $$$ are in the smart phone sector and Nokia lacks a capable OS. In addition, they would need the entire value chain consisting of iTunes, and apps. At one point they controlled the leading 2G tech - GSM, but they lost leadership to others in 3G.

This kind of change of leadership happens where there are disruptive technology changes. For the 1st generation phones which were analog, Moto was the top dog. When the tech changed to GSM with Nokia. Ericsson holding key IPRs, Moto got caught with their pants down. So Nokia became the top dog for 2G/GSM.

Now the tech changed with 3G... and the phones become data centric. Nokia, like Moto earlier, got caught unprepared. A new leader came out of nowhere... and that is Apple. RIMM is right there, but their phone is more like a 2G e-mail phone that does browsing.

Now the upstart with the capable OS is Palm. It is still rough at the edges, but the code could be optimized to become more robust and faster. Needs their own iTunes equivalent because it is not feasible to freeload on Apple over the long term. I am surprised they have not been sued out of existence over the multi-touch interface. Regardless, I think it would make sense for Nokia to take over Palm and then scale the tech over a wider market.

I am long Apple, with a small position in RIMM and a side bet in Palm.

[Virgil-TB2]

Originally Posted by Quadra 610

LOL.

Let's all get along. Even Teckstud likes his iPhone. There just might be a God after all.

Anyway, seriously, Nokia's been asleep at the wheel for years now. This is what they get.

As for Motorola . . . they should just go dark for a year and completely rethink their strategy. Reshuffle management, or bring someone in who knows what they're doing. There's no point in "me too" phone rollouts.

Yes.

I must say I've been here quite a while and I've never noticed solipsism to be "anti-Apple" at all. In fact he/she is mostly an intelligent, unbiased and thoughtful type. Teckstud can hardly say the same.

Also, even though I would pay *not* to use one, the Nokia phones are not crap in any way. I see them as just more for the Linuxy Scandinavian/European crowd is all. IMO they are finicky and clunky compared to iPhone, but some people like that. There is nothing wrong with different people using different products.

[christopher126]

Originally Posted by monstrosity

Nokia are doomed.

It is written.

Oh if only I had the energy to trawl through old posts.

Sorry couldn't help it...

solipsism "Whatever you think of Nokia, counting them out of the running is like counting Apple out of the running back in the late 90s"

genericposts "Never going to happen. The demise of Nokia has been predicted for years"

Yep, Apple is teaching industry leaders (one by one) in each tech sector just what's required to be successful....Sony (iPod vs. Walkman), Motorola (Razor/Roker vs iPhone), ATT (iPhone vs. all other smart phones), Verizon (iPhone/App Store vs. all other smart phones) HP (MacBooks vs. laptops), Dell (iMacs vs. Desktops/PDA/MP3 Player/SmartPhone), MicroSoft (OSX/iWork/MobileMe vs. Vista/Office/Zune/Windows Mobile, Live, etc., etc.), Palm (iPhone/App Store vs. Treos, PDA's, Pre) RIM (iPhone/App Store vs. all Blackberries), Blockbuster (AppleTV/iTunes vs. video Rentals) Tower Records (iTunes), Walmart, (iTunes), Target, (iTunes). Sorry, I can't think of anymore!

[mrochester]

Now the tech changed with 3G... and the phones become data centric. Nokia, like Moto earlier, got caught unprepared. A new leader came out of nowhere... and that is Apple. RIMM is right there, but their phone is more like a 2G e-mail phone that does browsing.

Are you American by any chance? You talk as if 3G just magically appeared when Apple started making phones.

[christopher126]

Originally Posted by mrochester

Are you American by any chance? You talk as if 3G just magically appeared when Apple started making phones.

mrochester: Are you from Chester, England, by chance?

[maxmann]

nokia, mot, whoever.. they all missed the boat because apple came in and stole away the fundamental reasons for which they had to stand behind their product line features.. this is more than a bad year.. it is fundamental - like the inability for the Japanese to sync their consumer electronics lead with software instead of hardware formats (see cassette, cd, dvd etc etc).. This is bigger even than Teckstud making jokes about Solipsism and Solipsism not getting it!!! Go Teckstud! haha

what is so much fun on weeks like this is to acknowledge that fundamental change in how we use our phone, or touch, or ipod or mac is catching on faster than anyone else's attempts to make changes similar by far. i like how it drags on for a while and then all of a sudden WHAM.. everyone is on the apple business for a while again...

this has been a great news week for apple.. Even the analzits are out there making noise that is positive for AAPL..

it is like everyone else works for 3 months to catch up. and for 2.99 of the three months the news says they are.. and then we start all over again.. now they are coming out with another app store.. or they download from itunes!!! or the zune will be here this fall with ... and so on.. talk about steady steady growth and new product intros.. man.. AAPL is just doing a fantastic job of it..

in the mean time... the iphone is holding up as irreplaceable .. the apps are changing again how we think and use our phone or touch.... the 10" ipad has to be right around the corner... and my 2011 options (VAAAX) are up over 200% ..

And Teckstud is making us laugh!!

[christopher126]

I wish Apple would buy a cell phone provider, a cable company and a TV manufacturer and then it would all be "verticalized." And better!

[solipsism]

Originally Posted by monstrosity

Nokia are doomed.

It is written.

Oh if only I had the energy to trawl through old posts.

Sorry couldn't help it...

solipsism "Whatever you think of Nokia, counting them out of the running is like counting Apple out of the running back in the late 90s"

I stand by my statement. A slide in innovation, stock price, sales or marketshare doesn’t spell certain doom for Nokia. They have a marketcap of $50B. There is nothing stopping them from building a new, robust OS with a focus on the UI that competes more directly with newer mobile devices, or from restructuring the way Apple, Palm and others have.

That is not to say that Nokia will be successful, but to say with certainty right now that they are doomed can not be deduced with any relative certainty.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by mrochester

Are you American by any chance? You talk as if 3G just magically appeared when Apple started making phones.

We've had these discussions for years here.

Yes, 3G has been around for a while. I remember when it first moved out. But in Europe and Japan, the first big areas to get good coverage, the cell companies had a lot of problems trying to get people to sign up. They simply didn't want to pay for it. In fact that was why messaging was so popular both in Japan and Europe—it was cheaper.

So yes, there was good coverage in those places fairly early, but there wasn't great USAGE of it. That's much more recent.

The iPhone did spur heavy use of data services, and that involves mostly 3G. After all, the numbers show that about half of all data usage is from iPhones worldwide. That's been reported in many places. Then there are all the other 3G phones around the world put together getting the other half.

[AjitMD]

Originally Posted by mrochester

Are you American by any chance? You talk as if 3G just magically appeared when Apple started making phones.

Yes, I am American and 3G was invented in the US and was implemented in the US first. QCOM implemented the basic technology in the early 1990s and the 1st networks using this tech were started in Asia - I think it was in Korea. Later on Verizon and Sprint plus a QCOM subsidiary adopted the tech. Fist voice and data used the same 1.25 MHz channel, but it was still much faster than GSM. The European companies, particularly Nokia and Ericsson were in denial, but later on tried to fight QCOM in courts and it went again them. Around Feb-1999, Ericsson capitulated. In order to dilute QCOM IPRs and royalties they came up with the UMTS 3G.

Anyway... all this data capability was useless... especially using WAP or even Windows Mobile. Too clunky and the browser was not enough to drive demand. They were just extensions of the desktop. The paradigm shift came when the iPhone came in with an entire OS, plus unique user interface + browser and apps that are not browser centric.

I used to be long QCOM starting early late 1998, did not sell early enough, but did ok. That is another company with potential, but there are management issues, too much share dilution from mgt and proforma account. I understand, Apple pays good money in royalties to QCOM. Their standard royalties are around 5.5% of the sale price.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by solipsism

I stand by my statement. A slide in innovation, stock price, sales or marketshare doesn’t spell certain doom for Nokia. They have a marketcap of $50B. There is nothing stopping them from building a new, robust OS with a focus on the UI that competes more directly with newer mobile devices, or from restructuring the way Apple, Palm and others have.

That is not to say that Nokia will be successful, but to say with certainty right now that they are doomed can not be deduced with any relative certainty.

While they gave Symbian away to an open software market, and people thought that was for better development, so that Nokia would get a better OS for themselves, I've seen it differently.

To me, that was the first move by Nokia to rid themselves of that yoke while they looked for something better.

We know they're looking at Andriod, and other Linux based OS's.

They have to. While Nokia may not be doomed, for top of the line smartphones, Symbian is doomed.

Whether Nokia can come up with what they need quickly enough to prevent a further slide is the question. So far, with all its bad reviews, and the preview in PC mag that just came out is the best one I've read so far, though not great, they've managed to sell an estimated 500,000 in the first month. That's why their smartphone numbers didn't slide this last quarter.

But this phone, for the price, isn't very good, and there's no guarantee that sales will hold up.

I can tell you that everywhere we went in London there were N97 ADs. Esp. in the Underground. You were pelted with them on almost every escalator. Nevertheless the iPhone seemed everywhere.

[mrochester]

Originally Posted by christopher126

mrochester: Are you from Chester, England, by chance?

No, 'fraid not.

[anantksundaram]

Originally Posted by solipsism

They have a marketcap of $50B. There is nothing stopping them from building a new, robust OS with a focus on the UI that competes more directly with newer mobile devices, or from restructuring the way Apple, Palm and others have.

That is not to say that Nokia will be successful, but to say with certainty right now that they are doomed can not be deduced with any relative certainty.

Nothing can be forecasted with certainty. However, if Nokia was not capable of building a "...new, robust OS with a focus on UI..." when they were a $120B mkt cap company, I seriously doubt that they can do so as a $50B company.

[anantksundaram]

Originally Posted by AjitMD

Yes, I am American and 3G was invented in the US and was implemented in the US first. QCOM implemented the basic technology in the early 1990s and the 1st networks using this tech were started in Asia - I think it was in Korea. Later on Verizon and Sprint plus a QCOM subsidiary adopted the tech. Fist voice and data used the same 1.25 MHz channel, but it was still much faster than GSM. The European companies, particularly Nokia and Ericsson were in denial, but later on tried to fight QCOM in courts and it went again them. Around Feb-1999, Ericsson capitulated. In order to dilute QCOM IPRs and royalties they came up with the UMTS 3G.

Anyway... all this data capability was useless... especially using WAP or even Windows Mobile. Too clunky and the browser was not enough to drive demand. They were just extensions of the desktop. The paradigm shift came when the iPhone came in with an entire OS, plus unique user interface + browser and apps that are not browser centric.

Yeah. I remember these events well. In fact, these companies (along with Motorola) looked down their noses and pooh-poohed then emergent manufacturers like LG and Samsung, let alone someone like Apple today.

We've seen time and again that things can change fairly dramatically in this industry in a very short time.

[maxmann]

Originally Posted by anantksundaram

Nothing can be forecasted with certainty. However, if Nokia was not capable of building a "...new, robust OS with a focus on UI..." when they were a $120B mkt cap company, I seriously doubt that they can do so as a $50B company.

it is true.. the mentality.. the experience .. the power structure.. they are all in the way of major "FUNDAMENTAL" change.. the tired old ways are part of the infrastructure of a given company.. Sure, Nokia will survive.. as will Dell.. there will always be a market for some of there stuff.. And Nokia has proven itself in the past - but look who did the proving and how old they are now.. innovation comes with new generations of power decisions too.. Those old farts once were way way ahead of the game.. they CAN'T JUST RE-INVENT THEMSELVES NOW.. They need to finance newness with leadership that can find the right people with the will and quality to do it.. they can't just go buy it - look where that gets softie.. they have the same old overview and so the stuff comes out not at all with a total solution .. just pieces as usual.. that is what they were and are good at.. Nokia is a very respectable company that will now get some of these faults fixed.. the market can't just replace them overnight.. and there is still a big basic customer base and distribution base used to doing business with them.. they won't just shut there doors and go away!

This is where Apple shines.. they have the innovators that are still not happy with their past somehow.. and they have the drive like a finely tuned machine to keep on dishing out new ideas and products.. boy, it would be fun to be a fly on wall over there for a day.. just to see how their structure overcomes oldness if nothing else..

Here we are now years after the iphone was introduced and what has Nokia done? almost nothing to create a similar total solution that one can step by step easily forecast is coming.. and how can they? they haven't the right flesh to do it.. these things take planning and followthrough with strong leaders.. it takes three or four years to do maybe what apple has done in half that amount of time.. it was like just yesterday that the big stink was about the SDK's.. now there are 65,000 0f them and who the hell has even gotten their heads above the sand down the street or across the ocean?

i was never around the phone business.. what the heck happened to Palm.. ? how did they miss what was essentially theirs to have? has anyone got anything on that history i can read? i am fascinated how they "had it" and could not implement it..