Apple flirts with record quarter as Mac sales jump 16% in June

[AppleInsider]

Apple on Tuesday is likely to announce its best-ever June quarter for Mac sales, as new market data implies the company sold approximately 2.6 million systems during its third fiscal quarter.

Macs

In a note to clients Monday afternoon, Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster cited data from NPD which indicates that domestic Mac sales, which account for roughly 40 percent of the Mac maker's shipments, rose 16 percent in June following the introduction of more affordable MacBook Pros.

That's much better than the flat to 5 percent increase Munster had been anticipating and, when analyzed alongside previously released NPD data for the months of April and May, lead the analyst to predict that Mac sales for the three-month period ended June could run as high as 2.6 million.

If accurate, that total would not only trump Wall Street's consensus estimates of 2.45 million Mac sales for the quarter, but also signal the best-ever June (fiscal third) quarter for Mac sales in Apple's history. Additionally, it would imply year-over-year Mac growth of 5 percent.

The most Macs ever sold by the Cupertino-based company during a June quarter came last year, when it reported moving 2.496 million units. Apple's all-time quarterly record for Mac sales was recorded during the September 2008 quarter, when it sold 2.611 million systems.

iPods

Meanwhile, NPD data for all three months of the June quarter suggests unit sales will decline about 13 percent year-over-year to 9.6 million units, which is fairly in-line with Munster's estimate of a 10 percent decline and the Street's thinking towards a 14 percent decline.

Guidance

Apple will provide actual sales figures for Macs, iPods and iPhones following the close of the stock market on Tuesday as part of it fiscal third quarter report. The same report will include the company's forecast -- or "guidance" -- for the current quarter that runs July through September.

Munster pointed out in his note to clients Monday that Apple over the past 12 quarters has guided per-share earnings and revenues 12 percent and 4 percent, respectively, below Wall Street's expectations. However, the analyst predicted the typically conservative company may for once guide in-line with estimates due to three primary factors.

The first, he said, is strong demand for new MacBook Pros introduced last month that has seen some models remain backordered by over a week on the Apple online store. Second, he sees the improved value proposition of the 13-inch MacBook Pro adding to the historically positive impact of the company's back-to-school promotion. And finally, he points to the aforementioned NPD figures, which are ahead of his plans.



"If the company follows its standard operating procedure of extremely conservative guidance relative to Street expectations, we believe it would be particularly over-conservative given the factors outlined above," Munster told clients. "While it is impossible to predict the company's language around guidance and the numbers, we believe it is more likely than usual that the company could guide September revenue in line with consensus."

The Piper Jaffray analyst, who is also forecasting June quarter iPhone sales of 5 million, maintained his Overweight rating and $180 price target on shares of Apple.

[ View this article at AppleInsider.com ]

[Roos24]

Writing this on my brand new 13" MacBook Pro, I did my part! Congrats Apple, now let's see how they do in the big league...

[OC4Theo]

Apple always beats expectations and always surpasses any guidance. Analysts can always say what they want to say. I for sure, do not follow any analysts with regard to Apple. Information are bound to surface all the time, with so many rumors and innuendos. I can't understand why people pay for these analysts. They never say what they mean. And worst of all, they never mean what they say.

Just wait to hear it from Apple. Don't listen these idiots. They only pretend to know something when they don't know anything. Why do 2 analysts give different information about the same company? The answer is this; they are both guessing. Anybody can do that.

[teckstud]

See what happens when you add firewire back to the 13" and improve its screen? Wait til matte (or should I say less glossy) returns to the lineup.

[gmcalpin]

Originally Posted by teckstud

See what happens when you add firewire back to the 13" and improve its screen? Wait til matte (or should I say less glossy) returns to the lineup.

I'm holding my breath for a sub-$2000 Mac Pro. heh

[Roos24]

Originally Posted by teckstud

See what happens when you add firewire back to the 13" and improve its screen? Wait til matte (or should I say less glossy) returns to the lineup.

Check the specs, Teckstud; my 13" MBP has Firewire (800, but fully compatible with 400). I used it to get my info off of a Firewire HD. And I for one love the glossy screen. Having said that, I usually use it connected to a large size screen both at my office and at home.

[Lemon Bon Bon.]

I'm holding my breath for a sub-$2000 Mac Pro. heh

Yeah. No kidding. Apple could add another couple hundred of k in sales if they sorted out their desktop line.

Still. I can see them smashing the 3million barrier with the laptop momentum.

They had to climb down on Macbooks. Too expensive. No firewire. They did and sales rebounded. Macs don't have to be 'cheapest' but people won't stand for price hikes in this recession.

They cleverly made the Macbook Pro line cheaper by adding the Macbook to it and trimming the price. A parry. But a clever marketing trick. 'Pros' are alu anyhow.

Now, if they can do the same 'trick' with the Macbook line and the desktop line of iMacs then the 3 million barrier will break.

A mid-tower Mac, like you say, wouldn't hurt.

Lemon Bon Bon.

[teckstud]

Originally Posted by Roos24

Check the specs, Teckstud; my 13" MBP has Firewire (800, but fully compatible with 400). I used it to get my info off of a Firewire HD. And I for one love the glossy screen. Having said that, I usually use it connected to a large size screen both at my office and at home.

No I agree with you- your new firewire MBP has ignited a sales flurry along with its lower pricing. Why? - because people were holding out until they got it back. I know I'm getting one next. And the screen is an improvement over the old MB's too.
Give people the options they want and up goes the sales- same for matte and blu-ray. Not everybody wants it but it should be at least be an option.

[wizard69]

That is what I got from reading this article. Apparently they have read my posts about the new MBP which are almost ideal student machines now. What is impressive is that back to school shopping is still going on so next quarter should likewise be very interesting. Sales of MBPs are likely to be very impressive.

I'm not as sure about the iPods. I suspect a lot of people are holding off for the next generation devices. Even then I don't think sales will be down that far.

Apple will impress tomorrow.

Dave

[wizard69]

Originally Posted by teckstud

No I agree with you- your new firewire MBP has ignited a sales flurry along with its lower pricing. Why? - because people were holding out until they got it back.

That is pure wishful thinking!!! FireWire is only a tiny issue overall when it comes to the new MBPs. For the market Apple is after that battery improvement is likely to be the most significant driver of sales. Still it is a sum of the parts that make these machines hot sellers.

I just don't think there where enough Firewire holdouts to make a difference.

I know I'm getting one next. And the screen is an improvement over the old MB's too.
Give people the options they want and up goes the sales- same for matte and blu-ray. Not everybody wants it but it should be at least be an option.

I got matte on my early 2008 MBP and honestly it is a mixed blessing if you can even call it that. Choice is important here though, but a matte display should not be seen as always the correct answer.

As to BluRay I suppose some need it. What I want though is a machine free of optical drives altogether. That is a CD less laptop without the AIRs limitations. I'd much rather that space went to additional internal storage, bigger battery or a slot for an internal cellular modem. Right now internal Optical drives are a waste. They waste space and the waste power, it is the one feature on my MBP that gets very little use. So yeah features sell machines but more so they need to be modern features.


Dave

[Dr Millmoss]

What's this thread about? Oh, that's right -- Apple's Q3 profit forecasts.

On that subject, assuming anyone is interested in discussion...

http://bullcross.blogspot.com/2009_07_01_archive.html

[nikon133]

That is why I really don't believe a s*it to these analysts.

Because here is an article with title "Apple Computer Sales Slow, May Have Dropped to Fifth Place".

http://www.dailytech.com/article.aspx?newsid=15723

Must say I didn't dig into details, but at a first glance it looks a bit in contrast with this market analyst..?

[lkrupp]

The last few years have been really tough on the Apple haters who slither around these forums. None of their FUD has worked, apparently. It's a tough row to hoe these days for the FUD spinmeisters and Windows trolls.

[JeffDM]

Lots of hubub about guestimated figures about the actual figures that will come out tomorrow. Best to ignore this and similar competing stories of foretold success and doom and read the actual figures only a day from now.

[JeffDM]

Originally Posted by wizard69

I got matte on my early 2008 MBP and honestly it is a mixed blessing if you can even call it that. Choice is important here though, but a matte display should not be seen as always the correct answer.

Both matte and glossy displays are flawed answers. Which one is more flawed sometimes depends on the person's environment and preferences. There are surface treatments that literally cancel out reflections by optical interference, Apple uses a very light touch of that, but not nearly strong enough in my opinion. It probably costs a little more, but I would be happy to pay it. I have a couple camcorders that use that on the screen, it looks great.

[ljocampo]

Originally Posted by wizard69

That is pure wishful thinking!!! FireWire is only a tiny issue overall when it comes to the new MBPs. For the market Apple is after that battery improvement is likely to be the most significant driver of sales. Still it is a sum of the parts that make these machines hot sellers.

I just don't think there where enough Firewire holdouts to make a difference.

I got matte on my early 2008 MBP and honestly it is a mixed blessing if you can even call it that. Choice is important here though, but a matte display should not be seen as always the correct answer.

As to BluRay I suppose some need it. What I want though is a machine free of optical drives altogether. That is a CD less laptop without the AIRs limitations. I'd much rather that space went to additional internal storage, bigger battery or a slot for an internal cellular modem. Right now internal Optical drives are a waste. They waste space and the waste power, it is the one feature on my MBP that gets very little use. So yeah features sell machines but more so they need to be modern features.


Dave

Dave I hear where you are coming from... BUT there are a lot of us laptop users that their laptop is their only computer and need the CD/DVD. Moms, Dads, and Grannies are still getting plenty of use out of them. We love to make DVDs of the kids and CDs for the car stereo. We're not power users, so our needs are simple surfing, email, and the laptop is all we need. Having it built-in is a plus for us. The mobility and lightness suits us better than a desktop.

I'd agree with you if there was an option to leave optical dives out for your group.

[Dr Millmoss]

Originally Posted by JeffDM

Lots of hubub about guestimated figures about the actual figures that will come out tomorrow. Best to ignore this and similar competing stories of foretold success and doom and read the actual figures only a day from now.

I think most of us plan on paying attention to the real numbers too. Some analysts have better track records than others. I've taken to reading the predictions of Bullish Cross. He tends to be closer to the money than many of the paid professionals guesstimators. His take-away this time is that he believe the pros are being too pessimistic on margins. Makes an interesting case for it.

Anyway, most of this discussion will be about matte vs. glossy and firewire (the great black holes of the forums), so no fear that we'll pay too much attention to the actual subject.

[nikon133]

Originally Posted by JeffDM

Lots of hubub about guestimated figures about the actual figures that will come out tomorrow. Best to ignore this and similar competing stories of foretold success and doom and read the actual figures only a day from now.

I hope they'll actually do well. IT market needs strong Apple. I'd be happier if we have a few more alternative platforms doing well - in my ideal world, say, Amiga and ST beside Apple, with dominant platform having no more than 50% of market...

Anyway. Someone has to keep Windows/PC alliance vigilant.

[Quadra 610]

Originally Posted by lkrupp

The last few years have been really tough on the Apple haters who slither around these forums. None of their FUD has worked, apparently. It's a tough row to hoe these days for the FUD spinmeisters and Windows trolls.

Ain't that the truth! Mostly positive news since 2006, and it seems like there's no end in sight. Neowin members can't stand it, that's for sure. It's a haven for Windows sufferers. All they really have, those poor souls, is the promise (hope) of Windows 7.

[chefmitch]

Pretty incomplete earnings preview if they don't mention the iPhone.

The iPhone is a full partner in the Apple product lineup and is a earnings powerhouse.

[hillstones]

Originally Posted by Roos24

Writing this on my brand new 13" MacBook Pro, I did my part! Congrats Apple, now let's see how they do in the big league...

I helped contribute in June as well, but I got my hands on one of the remaining new clearance stock of last year's iMac 24" 2.8 GHz for $600 off. Then sold my old iMac G4 on eBay for $380, lowering the cost of the new iMac to $819. Can't beat that one. And Apple gets a tick mark for selling a new Mac.

[al_bundy]

Originally Posted by nikon133

I hope they'll actually do well. IT market needs strong Apple. I'd be happier if we have a few more alternative platforms doing well - in my ideal world, say, Amiga and ST beside Apple, with dominant platform having no more than 50% of market...

Anyway. Someone has to keep Windows/PC alliance vigilant.

Wintel has been breaking up since intel started courting Linux and apple

[hillstones]

Originally Posted by teckstud

See what happens when you add firewire back to the 13" and improve its screen? Wait til matte (or should I say less glossy) returns to the lineup.

Instead of talking out of your hat, why don't you buy a Mac with a glossy screen and then you will realize that the Matte screen is really poor in clarity. The glossy screen brings back the clarity Apple had when they used Sony Trinitron tubes in all their displays, while PC's used the cheap shadow mask tubes that paled in comparison. My LC 575 with Trinitron tube has a sharper picture than my iMac G5 with matte LCD. And the LC 575 is 15 years old!

[teckstud]

Originally Posted by hillstones

Instead of talking out of your hat, why don't you buy a Mac with a glossy screen and then you will realize that the Matte screen is really poor in clarity. The glossy screen brings back the clarity Apple had when they used Sony Trinitron tubes in all their displays, while PC's used the cheap shadow mask tubes that paled in comparison. My LC 575 with Trinitron tube has a sharper picture than my iMac G5 with matte LCD. And the LC 575 is 15 years old!

Talking out of my hat? The glossy iMac is atrocious- it's not even LED! The 13" glossy finally was brought up to a Pro level of the Pro LED manufacturer as the other Pros- before that it was not great. Have you compared it to the 13" MacBook? Do you have any idea how many people loathe glossy displays? I should say HIGH GLossy displays. They're great if you ever need a mirror to apply makeup but besides that- ?????
Apple should never have tried to mirror their computer displays to the iPhone's display. "What's good for the goose is not necessarily good for the gander."

[teckstud]

Originally Posted by JeffDM

Both matte and glossy displays are flawed answers. Which one is more flawed sometimes depends on the person's environment and preferences. There are surface treatments that literally cancel out reflections by optical interference, Apple uses a very light touch of that, but not nearly strong enough in my opinion. It probably costs a little more, but I would be happy to pay it. I have a couple camcorders that use that on the screen, it looks great.

I agree- a hybrid display is the best.

[aaarrrgggh]

Odd that he stuck with the $180 recommendation. If things are that rosy, I would have expected Gene to jump back up to $200.

Time to cross fingers for tomorrow night!

[hillstones]

Originally Posted by teckstud

Talking out of my hat? The glossy iMac is atrocious- it's not even LED! The 13" glossy finally was brought up to a Pro level of the Pro LED manufacturer as the other Pros- before that it was not great. Have you compared it to the 13" MacBook? Do you have any idea how many people loathe glossy displays? I should say HIGH GLossy displays. They're great if you ever need a mirror to apply makeup but besides that- ?????
Apple should never have tried to mirror their computer displays to the iPhone's display. "What's good for the goose is not necessarily good for the gander."

You are so full of shit TeckStud. MacWorld even did a survey and more people preferred the iMac's glossy display. Since you don't even own one, you don't know what you are talking about. You are just spreading your normal FUD, like you do with the iPhone, which you don't own either. Now you are complaining about LED? Did you run out of glossy complaints? Did you avoid all MacBook Pros with their non-LED matte screens because they weren't LED? Did you avoid all matte LCD's because they weren't LED? You are the only one that makes an issue about hating the glossy screen because you don't even own one! Until you actually have experience with an iMac at home, go smoke your FUD. When the iMac is on, there is no reflection. Did you hate the reflection on the original Trinitron monitors too? Are are you not old enough to have any experience with those either?

[Dr Millmoss]

Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh

Odd that he stuck with the $180 recommendation. If things are that rosy, I would have expected Gene to jump back up to $200.

Time to cross fingers for tomorrow night!

Didn't he recently raise his target price? That's what I seem to remember.

So, anyway... matte or glossy?

[hill60]

I bought a 13" aluminum MacBook last month, I didn't want to wait ten days for a new MacBook Pro from the several stores I tried, FireWire, who cares I've never used it, glossy screen meh the screen is great

To me this is a netbook, small, light and powerful.

[Quadra 610]

Originally Posted by hill60

I bought a 13" aluminum MacBook last month, I didn't want to wait ten days for a new MacBook Pro from the several stores I tried, FireWire, who cares I've never used it, glossy screen meh the screen is great

To me this is a netbook, small, light and powerful.

Not according to the Winblows sufferers. They'll yell and scream that a "netbook" isn't supposed to cost ~$1000. They say the whole point is something cheap and inexpensive. In other words: junk. Which is what most netbooks are.

Just change what you call it and you're good to go. Apple's redefined the space anyway.

[pchukwura]

Excellent news. I guess that's what happens when prices are dropped and the offerings are updated. I also think by making the 13" a "pro", consumers feel like they're in a higher tier and maybe they are more likely to purchase.

My 4GB black macbook is still great but can't wait to get my new 13" MBP next week!(tax-free weekend in GA!!)