Apple expected to sell 2.7 million Macs in fall quarter

[AppleInsider]

Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster reports Apple is on track to sell between 2.7 and 2.8 million Macs in its fourth fiscal quarter, based on retail data released by NPD Group.

NPD has pegged Apple's July sales as a 2% rise over last year, which Munster says implies 3% to 7% growth for the full quarter when factoring in back to school sales, according to a report published by Fortune.

"With just one month of data," Munster wrote, "it is way too early to make a call on the quarter given ~50% of Mac sales in the quarter typically happen in the month of Sept." Munster also noted that Apple's international sales are growing faster than US sales for both Macs and iPods. NPD only reports on domestic retail sales. The end of the recession in Germany, France and Japan will no doubt help boost Apple's sales internationally as well.

Despite the recession's assault on retail sales over the last year, Apple managed to grow its July 2008 sales by 43% over 2007, making the additional 2% growth this year indicative of continued, if slowing, growth throughout the global downturn. Average selling prices of Macs was down 4% in July over June 2008; Munster expects ASP figures for the entire fall quarter to be down 6% over the previous summer quarter.

iPods turning into iPhone sales

Sales of iPods are expected to continue to recede, with July's unit sales down by 17% over the previous year. The typical back to school bundling promotion Apple runs, offering free iPods with new Macs, should boost iPod sales over the end of the quarter, bringing quarterly sales to just 5% to 14% less than last year.

Sales of iPods began to plateau last year, with only slight growth over 2007. This year, sales of iPods have actually slipped slightly, with summer quarter sales falling from 11 million in 2008 to 10.2 million this year.

Apple executives have acknowledged that they see the market for traditional MP3 players continuing to level off, and have made efforts to replace those sales with iPhone and iPod touch models. During the same summer quarter, for example, iPhone sales jumped from 717 thousand to 5.2 million, resulting in a large net gain of combined iPod and iPhone sales overall, from 11.7 million in 2008 to 15.4 million this year.

Rapid growth of the iPhone overseas is also contributing to this "sales cannibalism," which results in allowing Apple to migrate MP3 users to its iPhone software platform and gives the company even more opportunity to sell Macs and its related services such as MobileMe.

Strong international growth in the iPhone was highlighted recently by the report that the iPhone 3GS was the top rated phone in Japan for the month of July, erasing any remaining worries that the Japanese market might "hate" the iPhone.

[ View this article at AppleInsider.com ]

[DocNo42]

Not bad for a company that produces elitist, overpriced hardware who's only distinguishing feature is that it comes from Apple.

/sarcasm

[anantksundaram]

Originally Posted by DocNo42

Not bad for a company that produces elitist, overpriced hardware who's only distinguishing feature is that it comes from Apple.

Go back to your hoi polloi world (and stew happily in it).

Sd/-
Apple Elitist

[GregoriusM]

Originally Posted by anantksundaram

Go back to your hoi polloi world (and stew happily in it).

Sd/-
Apple Elitist

I think Doc was being facetious.

[anantksundaram]

Originally Posted by GregoriusM

I think Doc was being facetious.

Oops.... should have checked his posting history.... sorry, Doc.

[DCJ001]

Originally Posted by DocNo42

Not bad for a company that produces elitist, overpriced hardware who's only distinguishing feature is that it comes from Apple.

Yeah, that's right:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oecXImARKuA

[iVlad]

Originally Posted by DocNo42

Not bad for a company that produces elitist, overpriced hardware who's only distinguishing feature is that it comes from Apple.

Spoken like a true lower class citizen.

[Logisticaldron]

Note that the Japanese phones are quite diverse in model numbers while offering pretty much the same features and styling even among the same vendor and carrier, so while it’s definitely a great achievement the the 32GB iPhone is #1 and the 16GB iPhone is #9 in terms of unit sales for a particular model, we shouldn’t forget the context in which the achievement was completed. Knowing the unit sales for each vendor and/or knowing the new activations for people wanting the iPhone would, of course, give us better perspective.

[wizard69]

Joking aside I think the analyst are underestimating just how well the laptop refresh will be recieved. The MBP line currently represents the ideal laptop for the student or traveling businessman. Something that I don't think is escaping the buying publics mind.

Complain all you want about the price but where else can you get a laptop that is as well engineered as the new MBP and as reasonably priced? I wouldn't be surprised to find them up by close to ten percent for the quarter.


Dave

[jcsegenmd]

3 million Macs this quarter

[melgross]

iPod sales are down because of the recession as well. We don't know if their sales will continue to move down afterwards. And let's not forget that in the USA, at least, the recession started in November 2007. Some of us argued that back in early 2008.

Computer sales are way down because of that as well. I wonder where they would be if there wasn't a recession. Likely 30% higher than last year.

[wizard69]

Originally Posted by jcsegenmd

3 million Macs this quarter

Isn't this currently Apples fourth quarter as far as the books go? Which makes me wonder about the rumored tablet coming in the first quarter. Is it the first of the fisical or calendar quarters? Apple could be diliberately trying to confuse people here.

As for September is that month the beginning or end of a fisical quarter at Apple?

The problem as I see it is that some of the software coming (rumored) in September really needs a tablet to deliver full potential. Thus if the liner notes crap and other stuff comes that is part of the new album format, in September, then a tablet will be needed.

Note that yes this implies that I think the new tablet is an iPod derived device. At this point that should surprise no one.



Dave

[melgross]

Originally Posted by wizard69

Isn't this currently Apples fourth quarter as far as the books go? Which makes me wonder about the rumored tablet coming in the first quarter. Is it the first of the fisical or calendar quarters? Apple could be diliberately trying to confuse people here.

As for September is that month the beginning or end of a fisical quarter at Apple?

The problem as I see it is that some of the software coming (rumored) in September really needs a tablet to deliver full potential. Thus if the liner notes crap and other stuff comes that is part of the new album format, in September, then a tablet will be needed.

Note that yes this implies that I think the new tablet is an iPod derived device. At this point that should surprise no one.



Dave

Yes, this is their fourth fiscal quarter of the year. It ends on september 30th.

Apple hasn't said anything about a tablet at all, so we have no idea of what's going on, though it seems as though there is some sort of tablet coming either with a September announcement, if you believe some. Or in the first calender quarter of 2010, if you believe others.

One person said in the first half of 2010 (calender).

So it's all over the place.

If this is real, unless it's just not ready, I don't know why Apple would want to miss the holiday season.

[SGSStateStudent]

Originally Posted by iVlad

Spoken like a true lower class citizen.

Check his history of posts. You'll know what I mean.

[SGSStateStudent]

Originally Posted by anantksundaram

go back to your hoi polloi world (and stew happily in it).

Sd/-
apple elitist

lol!.

[Bruce Robbie]

Are UK Educational Sales liely to add to this surge in Macs Sales?
From our experience in the decision making process of ICT purchasing for a large UK school we feel that UK Educational Sales are likely to remain flat as budget and "value for money" constraints confine our ICT spending. Although the prices of Macs have come down of late, the emergence of the netbook is now starting to gain traction in many areas of educational ICT thinking. This makes the Mac an even bigger specialist tool.
Amongst students, Macs will no doubt be a favorite, but amongst parents, saddled with increased insecurity, they still look like an expensive option, even with the back to school promo pricing. Unfortunately, the value of iLife is undermined by Pages and the truely worthless iWeb packages.
Overall, we think educational sales in the UK are likely to be subdued as parent power, recession and budget constraints continue to bite.

[saj]

I think among this whole increment there must be > 70% increased by iPhone developers!!!!

[ltcommander.data]

I wonder how effective the Back-to-School free iPod Touch is at increasing the iPhone OS user base. It'd be very interesting to see what the specific numbers are, but it's doubtful Apple will ever release such details. I'm guessing overall Mac profit margins can cover giving away a free iPod Touch and it'd probably be worthwhile to Apple as a whole at the end of the day, but free iPod Touch will negatively affect the iPod division's revenue.

[ncee]

And as long as Apple makes devices that serve more then one purpose, then some other item will suffer some.

- iPhone WILL hurt iPod sales … some
- Laptops WILL hurt desktop unit sales some … how much?
- LACK of new and exciting desktop unit(s) WILL hurt sales … some
- iPod Touch WILL hurt iPhone sales some … how much?
- iTab WILL hurt sales of Laptops & desktops … how much? This might be why Apple is waiting to release it. Get as many other items sold before you come out with something, that can and will replace other items.

Hell I don't doubt for a minute, that cell phones with ok / nice cameras built in, HAVE had an effect on digital camera sales … How much is anyones guess. And as they increase the pixels / quality of the cameras in these units, it will dig into the sales even more.

For right now, I'd love to see a new and exciting line up of desk top units and LARGE monitors, as we are ready to replace what we currently have.

Skip

[MySchizoBuddy]

laptop sales are canabalizing desktop sales. the desktop sales haven't gone up like laptop sales

[Quadra 610]

Originally Posted by MySchizoBuddy

laptop sales are canabalizing desktop sales. the desktop sales haven't gone up like laptop sales

That's not just with Apple. Desktop sales are down, way down, in the entire industry.

Which is why the few people here crying about a mid-range headless Mac Pro or or a mid-range non-iMac desktop won't get one. No demand for it. We're moving toward smaller form-factor, portable, and streamlined. The iMacs are as close as a desktop will get to "portability" at this point (even the Mini) without moving into Laptop/notebook territory.

[christopher126]

Originally Posted by ltcommander.data

I wonder how effective the Back-to-School free iPod Touch is at increasing the iPhone OS user base. It'd be very interesting to see what the specific numbers are, but it's doubtful Apple will ever release such details. I'm guessing overall Mac profit margins can cover giving away a free iPod Touch and it'd probably be worthwhile to Apple as a whole at the end of the day, but free iPod Touch will negatively affect the iPod division's revenue.

Yep, good point, but I wouldn't worry about it. Apple's standard practice with the Touch give away program is to give away something to the customer that is valued at $249 but only costs apple $150.

Far better to do this than reduce the laptops by $249. It's common practice with most companies.

[christopher126]

Originally Posted by ncee

And as long as Apple makes devices that serve more then one purpose, then some other item will suffer some.

- iPhone WILL hurt iPod sales … some
- Laptops WILL hurt desktop unit sales some … how much?
- LACK of new and exciting desktop unit(s) WILL hurt sales … some
- iPod Touch WILL hurt iPhone sales some … how much?
- iTab WILL hurt sales of Laptops & desktops … how much? This might be why Apple is waiting to release it. Get as many other items sold before you come out with something, that can and will replace other items.

Hell I don't doubt for a minute, that cell phones with ok / nice cameras built in, HAVE had an effect on digital camera sales … How much is anyones guess. And as they increase the pixels / quality of the cameras in these units, it will dig into the sales even more.

For right now, I'd love to see a new and exciting line up of desk top units and LARGE monitors, as we are ready to replace what we currently have.

Skip

The biggest factor hurting iPhone sales is ATT. Even with ATT the iPhone has hurt other smart phone manufacturers (Rim, etc.). The iPhone will hurt iPod sales, why carry 2 pieces of equipment when you can carry one. The iPhone's impact on camera's will be more felt when Apple adds a flash to it. I think the iPhone will impact hand held gaming, GPS sales, the list goes on and on.

[MySchizoBuddy]

i'm not talking about bad sales during the recession. look at the graph. Mac desktop haven't taken off in last 8 years. you cannot blame the recession for everything.

[iCarbon]

Not to rock too many boats, but I've got an honest-to-goodness rumor for all of you:

The ITG head in my department (at a major university) informed me that he had spoken to our senior Apple sales rep (who's been our rep for >20 years, apparently -- take that as you want), who had a vague piece of news:

"if we were doing something, which I'm not saying we are, it will come out in time for the holidays -- so I'd hold off on any major purchases"

This is a statement that makes a great deal of sense to me; why release something huge, like a tablet in the first quarter of 2010? There is no major buying momentum; if you release it in late October/early November, then you can be the splash of the holiday season -- sell piles of units and build powerful momentum. Otherwise, better to wait for spring. I just don't see a clear upside to a midwinter release...

[Bruce Robbie]

Originally Posted by Quadra 610

That's not just with Apple. Desktop sales are down, way down, in the entire industry.

Which is why the few people here crying about a mid-range headless Mac Pro or or a mid-range non-iMac desktop won't get one. No demand for it. We're moving toward smaller form-factor, portable, and streamlined. The iMacs are as close as a desktop will get to "portability" at this point (even the Mini) without moving into Laptop/notebook territory.

Another reason why we've gone down the laptop route is space saving. Classroom space costs and dedicating space to desktops just doesn't cut it any longer. It's like shelf space in a supermarket, every square metre has got to deliver. Laptops give that level of flexability, so that when you need them they are there ready to go. When not required they are stored away like library books. The cost of replacement and risk of damage ensures this a more cost effective option.
Even text book discs are now being used instead of the physical books themselves. Increased utility and cost effectiveness all around.

Concur on the iMac desktop statement. Our recent iMac purchases were influenced by space required.

[al_bundy]

Originally Posted by Quadra 610

That's not just with Apple. Desktop sales are down, way down, in the entire industry.

Which is why the few people here crying about a mid-range headless Mac Pro or or a mid-range non-iMac desktop won't get one. No demand for it. We're moving toward smaller form-factor, portable, and streamlined. The iMacs are as close as a desktop will get to "portability" at this point (even the Mini) without moving into Laptop/notebook territory.

the only time i turn on my desktop is to sync my wife's iphone because her work laptop has iTunes blocked. otherwise we are always on our laptops.

when my home build PC finally dies in a few years i'll probably just junk it. i wouldn't mind an MBP but it's like $3000 for the configuration i want compared to $1200 for a Dell Studio 15. And the dell will be faster at games and a few other things

[DocNo42]

Originally Posted by anantksundaram

Oops.... should have checked his posting history.... sorry, Doc.

No problem - I should have used /sarcasm - my bad really

[mdriftmeyer]

Originally Posted by wizard69

Isn't this currently Apples fourth quarter as far as the books go? Which makes me wonder about the rumored tablet coming in the first quarter. Is it the first of the fisical or calendar quarters? Apple could be diliberately trying to confuse people here.

As for September is that month the beginning or end of a fisical quarter at Apple?

The problem as I see it is that some of the software coming (rumored) in September really needs a tablet to deliver full potential. Thus if the liner notes crap and other stuff comes that is part of the new album format, in September, then a tablet will be needed.

Note that yes this implies that I think the new tablet is an iPod derived device. At this point that should surprise no one.



Dave

Yes, this is the 4th fiscal quarter of the year for Apple.

[eldernorm]

AI says,
"Sales of iPods began to plateau last year, with only slight growth over 2007. This year, sales of iPods have actually slipped slightly, with summer quarter sales falling from 11 million in 2008 to 10.2 million this year."

This is the same old, "if it aint growing by leaps and bounds, its dying." BS... Yes sales will grow each year for a while, but at some point you are just selling to new people and replacement units.

If Apple can maintain 70% market for mp3 players and sell 35,000,000 units a year, each and every year,,,,, well.... that aint hay!!!!! And 70 percent of the world market is 70% of the world market.. PERIOD!!!

Just a thought,
en

[melgross]

Originally Posted by christopher126

Yep, good point, but I wouldn't worry about it. Apple's standard practice with the Touch give away program is to give away something to the customer that is valued at $249 but only costs apple $150.

Far better to do this than reduce the laptops by $249. It's common practice with most companies.

When we compare the number of iPod Touch sales to computer sales from Apple, I thunk it's safe to say that the number of Touches given away with computers as a part of the back to school promotion are a very small proportion of the Touches sales. The Touch sold about 130% higher than last year same quarter. with sales to schools down, according to Cook, free Touches will have been an even smaller percentage than last year.

I think we can discount those giveaways as having much impact on the total.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by MySchizoBuddy

i'm not talking about bad sales during the recession. look at the graph. Mac desktop haven't taken off in last 8 years. you cannot blame the recession for everything.

But if you look at the lack of significant growth of all Apple computers this year, and the smaller sales of desktops in particular, you can see that the recession HAS been a significant factor.

Compare the sales at the beginning of 2008, to 2007, and you'll see significant sales growth in desktop and laptop sales, but as the recession gained a greater grip throughout the 2008 year, sales growth tapered off. then, around the end of 2009, and moving into 2009, when the recession was acknowledged as being so significant, growth in desktops faltered, and went negative, while sales in laptops also went negative one quarter, and then just moved up a few percent afterwards.

The trend of desktop sales over that long period was definitely upwards, until the recession hit. There is no question about that.

If there was no recession, there would be no reason to believe that growth of both desktops, AND laptops wouldn't have continued at the same rate as before, which was significant.

[joelsalt]

Originally Posted by MySchizoBuddy

laptop sales are canabalizing desktop sales. the desktop sales haven't gone up like laptop sales

Is the dip/staticness of 2002/3/4 due to the G5 fiasco? Was 2005 the switch to Intel? Its been so long I forget

[melgross]

Originally Posted by Bruce Robbie

Another reason why we've gone down the laptop route is space saving. Classroom space costs and dedicating space to desktops just doesn't cut it any longer. It's like shelf space in a supermarket, every square metre has got to deliver. Laptops give that level of flexability, so that when you need them they are there ready to go. When not required they are stored away like library books. The cost of replacement and risk of damage ensures this a more cost effective option.
Even text book discs are now being used instead of the physical books themselves. Increased utility and cost effectiveness all around.

Concur on the iMac desktop statement. Our recent iMac purchases were influenced by space required.

It isn't just space saving, though that's part of it.

Here in NYC, the main reason is cost savings. We have a program of buying laptops for schools that are stored on "carts". These carts are big enough to hold enough laptops for an entire class of 30+ students. With WiFi in most schools now, as well as Ethernet wiring in most classrooms, the cart can be brought to different classes. That negates having to have another computer lab (or more), and more computer teachers.

There can be one or two computer labs, and more than one "cart".

This enables the school to program computer usage much more efficiently.

With more than 1.1 million students in its K-12 schools, computer purchases, along with purchases for software, servers, and infrastructure is so high, that some means must be found to control those costs while ensuring that every student will get enough computer time.

At the same time, schools ARE purchasing more computers, and replacing old ones. But during these difficult times, when education budgets are being cut along with other city budgets, purchases are being cut as well. Laptops give every student a better chance of taking advantage of the latest technology.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by eldernorm

AI says,
"Sales of iPods began to plateau last year, with only slight growth over 2007. This year, sales of iPods have actually slipped slightly, with summer quarter sales falling from 11 million in 2008 to 10.2 million this year."

This is the same old, "if it aint growing by leaps and bounds, its dying." BS... Yes sales will grow each year for a while, but at some point you are just selling to new people and replacement units.

If Apple can maintain 70% market for mp3 players and sell 35,000,000 units a year, each and every year,,,,, well.... that aint hay!!!!! And 70 percent of the world market is 70% of the world market.. PERIOD!!!

Just a thought,
en

What I don't understand, is why people keep forgetting about the recession. I keep having to remind people of this. The discussion here seems to be forgetting the huge impact it's having on everyone's sales.

People! When considering whether to buy a new iPod or not over the past year, many have decided to wait one more year. This is natural. It doesn't mean that iPod sales are beginning a long term slide.

We won't know if this is true until we're out of the recession, and that may not be for another year or more.

Its like cell phone sales. People who are having money problems, and were always at the bottom of the purchasing power list, and so purchased the cheapest cell phones, are ensuring that overall cell phones sales for the year are down 6%.

But people who aren't in that category have helped the most expensive phone sales, smartphones, to rise 27% over last year.

It's very likely the same thing is happening to iPod sales. Those buying the less expensive models are holding off because of financial difficulties, or concern about them, while people who have less of a concern are buying the most expensive models in much higher numbers.

So we see iPod sales overall down by 10%, but the most expensive category, the iPod Touch is up an astounding 130%. That's 2.5 times the sales of last year!

[melgross]

Originally Posted by joelsalt

Is the dip/staticness of 2002/3/4 due to the G5 fiasco? Was 2005 the switch to Intel? Its been so long I forget

Everyne knew that Apple was moving to Intel almost a year before it happened, bwcause Jobs made that presentation. so in the very beginning, right after the announcement, sales were strong. As we got closer tothe arrival time, people began to hold off in their purchasing. right after Intel arrived, purchasing was moving back up, but still ar a slow pace. After the first quarter, when some machines were Intel, sales began topick upagain, and rapidly moved up.

It's a normal wait and see attitude.

After all, do you want to buy the last machine of a rapidly obsoleting technology? Most people don't know what's going on, so they buy anyway.

Others, such as schools, and business need to make purchases, so they do.

But the rest, perhaps 30% or so, think about holding off.

If you average out the sales before and afterwards, you will see that this holding off was what happened. A fairly steady increase in sales from the first numbers there until the recession began, can be seen.

[Beauty of Bath]

Originally Posted by iCarbon

This is a statement that makes a great deal of sense to me; why release something huge, like a tablet in the first quarter of 2010? There is no major buying momentum; if you release it in late October/early November, then you can be the splash of the holiday season -- sell piles of units and build powerful momentum. Otherwise, better to wait for spring. I just don't see a clear upside to a midwinter release...

There are plenty of reasons.

1) Costs of stock build up before launch are lower
2) Should version 1 problems hit fewer to repair/replace
3) Production ramp should be easier to control
4) Boost sales in a slower quarter
5) Launch hype vs reports of satisfied customers after 6 - 9 months use, which is the better stimulus for sales in the buying season?