One-fifth of buyers interested in Apple's unseen tablet

[AppleInsider]

Despite the fact that no one has seen it, a new survey says that 21 percent of buyers are interested in purchasing an Apple tablet device. That demand, along with strong Mac and iPhone sales, is expected to propel the company's stock.

In a survey of 3,100 people, more than a fifth said they are interested in Apple's long-rumored tablet device, according to a new note to investors from RBC Capital Markets. That's well more than the 9 percent that said they were interested in the original iPhone in April 2007. The survey assumed that the product would be priced between $500 and $700 for its question.

In addition to tablet buzz, iPhone and Mac sales are surging, analyst Mike Abramsky said. With all of those factors, he projects that AAPL stock will hit $250.

RBC believes that smartphones are the next wave of computing, and the iPhone is leading the way. Market penetration of the devices is predicted to hit 35.1 percent, or 504 million, by the year 2012. The company said it sees room for four or five major smartphone players, likely including Apple, Research in Motion and Palm.

Abramsky predicts that Apple will sell at least 22.8 million iPhones in the 2009 calendar year, giving the handset a 2 percent share of all cellphone sales. By 2011, he predicts that total will more than double to 54.7 million, with a 4 percent total market share.

"We view the iPhone as a 10-year platform, with significant growth and share gains ahead," Abramsky said. "Our outlook reflects continued iPhone share gains in domestic and international markets, driven by distribution expansion, more innovations in devices and user experience, and additional iPhone SKUs. Apple's iTunes/iTunes Store/Device ecosystem remains a significant source of competitive advantage."



In addition, a recent RBC IQ/ChangeWave Survey of 4,200 people found that the iPhone represents 30 percent of smartphone users, a number that has increased since the launch of the iPhone 3GS. The note states that half of Apple stores worldwide are struggling to meet consumer demand for the iPhone 3GS. Abramsky believes Apple will sell 7.25 million iPhones in the fourth quarter, higher than the Wall Street estimate of 6.6 million.

In addition, RBC found that MacBook sales have been strong, thanks to recent price cuts on the MacBook Pro line back-to-school pricing, and the launch of Apple's new operating system, Snow Leopard. A recent survey of 3,100 in early September shows that 25 percent of respondents bought a MacBook within the last 90 days, up from 12 percent in April. Given this, Abramsky has raised his projected Mac sales to 2.8 million, up from the previous prediction of 2.66 million.

[digitalclips]

I bet the number will be far higher than 20% as it becomes better known about.

[SamZie]

Well i was a part of the 21% untill i read about the MS booklet this morning.... damn it looks cool.....

[digitalclips]

Originally Posted by SamZie

Well i was a part of the 21% untill i read about the MS booklet this morning.... damn it looks cool.....

Here is the actual device without animated trickery: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=049_U-0C9qU

[Ronbo]

Originally Posted by AppleInsider

The survey assumed that the product would be priced between $500 and $700 for its question.

This smacks of some people thinking to force Apple's hand regarding price. It's gonna cost more than this. My original iPhone was $599. This is where rumors sites hurt Apple. People bandy rumored specs and prices around. Over time, they reach "consensus" and it's almost always toward the highest-end specs and lowest-end prices. And people who don't read the rumors critically feel ripped off or disappointed when the real thing shows up.

[Quadra 610]

Originally Posted by digitalclips

Here is the actual device without animated trickery: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=049_U-0C9qU

Well done!

[desarc]

"that 25 percent of respondents bought a MacBook within the last 90 days"

..BS. where was this survey taken? cupertino? the accessories section of the apple store?
how many people reading this forum [self proclaimed fanboys] have bought a macbook in the last 3 months? 25% sounds extremely high.

[Fonejacker]

I looks like a Microshaft finished product to me. Big, butt ugly, impractical, available in brown.
The software is way too sophisticated for MS. It also looks as though they have stolen a 20 year old idea from Apple. Nothing new there then. The 2 screens remind me of 2 iPhones stuck together. I can't wait for Apple to launch an Apple Tablet. But we don't know if it really exists yet. A 10" screen, Mac OS X or iPhone OS type software, sounds so exciting. Download videos, films, music, music videos on a beautiful screen. Sounds like a killer product, with all the apps, music, videos you could ever want, already available. MS simply does not understand innovation. Copying isn't innovation, its just copying. I think the Apple Tablet may be the next big product for 2010. Along side the iPhone, the iPod range. Thats 2 hugely fast selling products, all from one company, Apple. I wish I was an Apple shareholder.

[Quadra 610]

Originally Posted by Fonejacker

I looks like a Microshaft finished product to me. Big, butt ugly, impractical, available in brown.
The software is way too sophisticated for MS. It also looks as though they have stolen a 20 year old idea from Apple. Nothing new there then. The 2 screens remind me of 2 iPhones stuck together. I can't wait for Apple to launch an Apple Tablet. But we don't know if it really exists yet. A 10" screen, Mac OS X or iPhone OS type software

Oh, it's coming. This is Apple we're talking about. The same company that came out of absolutely nowhere with the iPhone. Amazing tech that changes the game is Apple's chief business. 2010 will be a big year.

[Ireland]

And they will change their minds when they find out it's priced @ $999

/or will they?

[Ireland]

Originally Posted by desarc

"that 25 percent of respondents bought a MacBook within the last 90 days"

..BS. where was this survey taken? cupertino? the accessories section of the apple store?
how many people reading this forum [self proclaimed fanboys] have bought a macbook in the last 3 months? 25% sounds extremely high.

Well spotted, I couldn't read that far even...

[DKWalsh4]

My strategy: wait 4-5 months for them to drop the price from $999 (or w/e it is) to $699. Just like the original iPhone (not the same prices, but the same situation)

[Ireland]

Originally Posted by DKWalsh4

My strategy: wait 4-5 months for them to drop the price from $999 (or w/e it is) to $699. Just like the original iPhone (not the same prices, but the same situation)

I don't see it happening as quickly, or by as much. They will raise specs and storage capacity, buy will keep the price the same. Just like they do with the MacBook, which the tablet will replace. I'd be interested to see what happens to the MacBook Pro then - a hunch tells me they will drop the "pro" from the MacBook line altogether, and then bring out colors across the line. The "pro" thing is getting tiring anyway, and the differences are becoming too small.

[teckstud]

The survey assumed that the product would be priced between $500 and $700 for its question.

If that's the case then this survey is bogus.
Apple don't do cheap- remember?
An iPod Touch averages $300 for krisake!
An iPhone $600.

[walshbj]

Originally Posted by Ireland

I don't see it happening as quickly, or by as much. They will raise specs and storage capacity, buy will keep the price the same. Just like they do with the MacBook, which the tablet will replace. I'd be interested to see what happens to the MacBook Pro then - a hunch tells me they will drop the "pro" from the MacBook line altogether, and then bring out colors across the line. The "pro" thing is getting tiring anyway, and the differences are becoming too small.

I agree with everything Ireland just said. Pro was lame from the beginning. Replacing an entire line with tablets would be one sure way to say "we're serious about this" and have people get on board.

There are so many places the hybrid tablets fell short, and that a true tablet could work better. I've seen doctors lugging around hybrids and laptops, it looks ridiculous. Ergonomic nightmare.

If I had to use a device in a car, like a cop does, I'd much rather have a BT keyboard in my lap with a mounted tablet. Instead of the way they twist in the seat now to type on a keyboard that's up high and at an awkward angle.

Not saying there are no ergonomic issues with tablets. But here's the big difference: The keyboard can be added in when needed and taken away when it's not. With a laptop you're always stuck with the whole 5-6 pound mess.

[teckstud]

Originally Posted by DKWalsh4

My strategy: wait 4-5 months for them to drop the price from $999 (or w/e it is) to $699. Just like the original iPhone (not the same prices, but the same situation)

Rule #1: Never, ever buy a first generation product from Apple unless you can afford to buy another one 6 months later. You'll be sorry sometimes as early as 3 months later.

[teckstud]

Originally Posted by Ireland

And they will change their minds when they find out it's priced @ $999

/or will they?

And that's without the required AT&T contract!

[Ireland]

Originally Posted by walshbj

I agree with everything Ireland just said. Pro was lame from the beginning. Replacing an entire line with tablets would be one sure way to say "we're serious about this" and have people get on board.

I don't mean replacing the aluminum MacBooks, just the plastic one. But thanks!

[Ireland]

Originally Posted by teckstud

And that's without the required AT&T contract!

Who is AT&T?

[teckstud]

Originally Posted by Ireland

Who is AT&T?

You don't want to know, trust me.

[walshbj]

Originally Posted by Ireland

I don't mean replacing the aluminum MacBooks, just the plastic one. But thanks!

That's what I meant too. Drop the plastic line for tablets. Rename the Pros to just Macbooks.

If it doesn't work release some new kind of entry level laptop a few months later. But I think it will work. I'd get by with a tablet most of the times I take a laptop outside the house or the office.

[Jerseymac]

Cutting edge new technology with years of research and development. If this thing goes on sale for less than $1700 bucks, I'll be amazed. And then everyone will piss on it for what it can't do, just like the MacBook Air. Which by the way could have ruled the netbook market if it wasn't so expensive compared to a $300 Asus netbook from Staples.

I personally see no use for a tablet device if you already have an Air and a iPhone. But I'll take two anyway.

[camroidv27]

Originally Posted by walshbj

That's what I meant too. Drop the plastic line for tablets. Rename the Pros to just Macbooks.

If it doesn't work release some new kind of entry level laptop a few months later. But I think it will work. I'd get by with a tablet most of the times I take a laptop outside the house or the office.

My biggest issue with the mentality of replacing a laptop line with a tablet would be this: Its currently an un-tested area for Apple. I would think they would release the tablet along side the MacBook, and then later doing away with the MacBook and renaming the MBPs once they know the tablet has worked (if it does). Secondly, many people here have argued that the OS will be the iPhone OS. An update can easily bring BT keyboards to light, but if you are going to replace a whole laptop line, I would sincerely hope that the OS would be full blown SL or else it would be way too limited as a laptop replacement. Some people would enjoy that, but not me. The biggest thing I like about my netbook (since the tablet will most likely be Apple's competition to the netbook seeing they won't make and actual one) is the fact it can run full blown OSs. I would hope the tablet would do the same.

I don't see the tablet replacing the low end laptop lines just yet. If the MS proposal is any indication of what is to come in this arena (and hoping Apple could do better), the tablet may become the next big thing. All depends on how well the input works.


Lastly: iPod has three lines (Shuffle, Nano, Classic). iPhone has two lines (iPhone, iPod Touch). AppleTV is another line. Even on Apple's web page, more menu space is dedicated to Apple's "gadgets" then their actual computers (which get lumped in with the software and routers). Notice in the online store how the gadgets are on top of the computers? And how they are displayed on the first tables when you walk into a store with the computers on the sides and back? I feel that Apple is turning into more of a "gadget" company than a computer company. If the tablet is released with iPhone OS, it will only strengthen the gadgetry of the company. This saddens me.

[Ireland]

Originally Posted by walshbj

That's what I meant too. Drop the plastic line for tablets. Rename the Pros to just Macbooks.

Where people might get confused with your comment it is when you use them "line", as there is only one of them.

EDIT: I didn't read the comment above this one fully, but I have a feeling he also misinterpreted what you said.

EDIT No.2: He didn't misinterpreted you, like I did, but he may as well of.

[success]

Originally Posted by digitalclips

Here is the actual device without animated trickery: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=049_U-0C9qU

is that S&M looking device really it?

[camroidv27]

Originally Posted by Ireland

Where people might get confused with your comment it is when you use them "line", as there is only one of them.

EDIT: I didn't read the comment above this one fully, but I have a feeling he also misinterpreted what you said.

I think he meant to drop the current MacBook plastic model for a tablet. With that done, rename the MBPs to MacBooks.

[Gazoobee]

Originally Posted by Fonejacker

... It also looks as though they have stolen a 20 year old idea from Apple. ...

Given that the video they bring up for a few seconds on the device when they "search the web" is the famous" Apple Knowledge Navigator" video from about 20 years ago, you may be on to something there.

[Ireland]

Originally Posted by Jerseymac

Cutting edge new technology with years of research and development. If this thing goes on sale for less than $1700 bucks, I'll be amazed.

The thing is though, you also have to be realistic, and at least somewhat competitive. Even if you're Apple

[teckstud]

Originally Posted by camroidv27

My biggest issue with the mentality of replacing a laptop line with a tablet would be this: Its currently an un-tested area for Apple. I would think they would release the tablet along side the MacBook, and then later doing away with the MacBook and renaming the MBPs once they know the tablet has worked (if it does). Secondly, many people here have argued that the OS will be the iPhone OS. An update can easily bring BT keyboards to light, but if you are going to replace a whole laptop line, I would sincerely hope that the OS would be full blown SL or else it would be way too limited as a laptop replacement. Some people would enjoy that, but not me. The biggest thing I like about my netbook (since the tablet will most likely be Apple's competition to the netbook seeing they won't make and actual one) is the fact it can run full blown OSs. I would hope the tablet would do the same.

I don't see the tablet replacing the low end laptop lines just yet. If the MS proposal is any indication of what is to come in this arena (and hoping Apple could do better), the tablet may become the next big thing. All depends on how well the input works.


Lastly: iPod has three lines (Shuffle, Nano, Classic). iPhone has two lines (iPhone, iPod Touch). AppleTV is another line. Even on Apple's web page, more menu space is dedicated to Apple's "gadgets" then their actual computers (which get lumped in with the software and routers). Notice in the online store how the gadgets are on top of the computers? And how they are displayed on the first tables when you walk into a store with the computers on the sides and back? I feel that Apple is turning into more of a "gadget" company than a computer company. If the tablet is released with iPhone OS, it will only strengthen the gadgetry of the company. This saddens me.

I agree- a Tablet released with the iPhone OS will be like an Etch-a Sketch compared to the lowly white MacBook.
To begin with there aren't even multiple windows!

[Ireland]

Originally Posted by teckstud

I agree- a Tablet released with the iPhone OS will be like an Etch-a Sketch compared to the lowly white MacBook.
To begin with there aren't even multiple windows!

The tablet will run Mac OS X touch.

[Gazoobee]

Originally Posted by Ireland

I don't see it happening as quickly, or by as much. They will raise specs and storage capacity, buy will keep the price the same. Just like they do with the MacBook, which the tablet will replace. I'd be interested to see what happens to the MacBook Pro then - a hunch tells me they will drop the "pro" from the MacBook line altogether, and then bring out colors across the line. The "pro" thing is getting tiring anyway, and the differences are becoming too small.

I think you're wrong about the tablet "replacing" the MacBook. This would just be a bad business move regardless of whether the tablet is a success or not.

MacBooks and laptops in general make up the largest part of Apple's computer business. To simply ditch the most popular product they have and replace it with untried technology running on a different form factor is a hugely bad idea.

I think we can expect that the Pros will remain the Pros, and that the plastic MacBook will be re-jiggered to more closely compete with the netbooks (thinner, composite cover, no optical, bigger battery, etc.).

There will be die-hard laptop enthusiasts (the "I need a real keyboard" folks), and older users that will take a long time to get used to the idea of tablet/finger computing, just as there were lots of CLI users that never got used to the GUI. Apple won't throw those customers away IMO.

[jeffharris]

Originally Posted by walshbj

That's what I meant too. Drop the plastic line for tablets. Rename the Pros to just Macbooks.

If it doesn't work release some new kind of entry level laptop a few months later. But I think it will work. I'd get by with a tablet most of the times I take a laptop outside the house or the office.

Ain't gonna happen. Apple just renamed the 13" uni-body from MacBook to MacBook Pro. The white MacBook is a perfect entry level machine with zero effort on Apple's part. If Apple were to rename the macBook Pro line, I'd rather they resurrect the PowerBook name!

The Apple tablet, whatever that may be, we all hope will be an entirely new class of machine, not simply a rehashed laptop or some tricky CGI concept like the Microsoft thing.

[teckstud]

Originally Posted by Ireland

The tablet will run Mac OS X touch.

I'm hope the new iMac gets a pivot arm like the old G4 had. Along with it's new Touch screen it could be brought down and used either as a Touch or upright as a conventional desktop.

[Ireland]

Originally Posted by teckstud

I'm hope the new iMac gets a pivot arm like the old G4 had. Along with a Touch screen it could be brought down and used either as a Touch or upright as a conventional desktop.

I can't see that happening, it's not needed.

[teckstud]

Originally Posted by Ireland

I can't see that happening, it's not needed.

Is a tablet needed?

[walshbj]

Originally Posted by jeffharris

Ain't gonna happen. Apple just renamed the 13" uni-body from MacBook to MacBook Pro. The white MacBook is a perfect entry level machine with zero effort on Apple's part. If Apple were to rename the macBook Pro line, I'd rather they resurrect the PowerBook name!

The Apple tablet, whatever that may be, we all hope will be an entirely new class of machine, not simply a rehashed laptop or some tricky CGI concept like the Microsoft thing.

Yeah, you're right. I got caught up in the moment.

[Ireland]

Originally Posted by Gazoobee

I think you're wrong about the tablet "replacing" the MacBook. This would just be a bad business move regardless of whether the tablet is a success or not.

I disagree. For example, someone might say: "yeah, but what I really want is an Apple laptop" - to which they would now need to stop up the price a bit. In this scenario Apple makes even more money from the person. And if they can't afford it they would more than often get the tablet IMO, as it will be too cool for them to resists. I happen to also think Apple's margins on the tablet will be huge too. All in all I think replacing the white MacBook with the tablet @ $999 is the right move. To me it even "feels" right. It feels like a very Apple-like move.

[jb510]

Here's the thing. I think 20% of the population would respond to any survey like this saying they are interested in ANY new Apple product. If I saw a survey asking me if I'd be interested in an $80 Apple toothbrush I'd say i was interested, not a chance I'd buy it though. Interest alone doesn't mean there is really a market for a tablet. I'll hold out that maybe there is, but just that I don't see how. The tablet people claim to want is going to be expensive, unlike netbooks, simply because like the iPhone it is going to need to use some new and expensive tech. A large (7-10") multi-touch screen is not going to be cheap. If you want it to play back 1080p and 3D graphic you need a real video card. If you have a real video card and a big screen you need a big battery (Apple's battery tech may be the one existing thing already laying around in support of a tablet). Even if Apple made this thing I don't think many people would like it nearly as much as they like the idea of it... As I typed this on my iPhone I was constantly reminded just what a pita editing text is on a touch screen... I can type on them just fine, but not having a mouse to quickly go back and revise a word or sentance can suck.

[Chris_CA]

Originally Posted by desarc

"that 25 percent of respondents bought a MacBook within the last 90 days"

..BS. where was this survey taken? cupertino? the accessories section of the apple store?
how many people reading this forum [self proclaimed fanboys] have bought a macbook in the last 3 months? 25% sounds extremely high.

Note that the poll was, "for those who bought a PC in the last 90 days".

[jeffharris]

Originally Posted by teckstud

I agree- a Tablet released with the iPhone OS will be like an Etch-a Sketch compared to the lowly white MacBook.
To begin with there aren't even multiple windows!

Why do there have to be multiple windows? Arguably, multiple windows have become one of the worst aspects of GUIs.

The majority of people can barely manage multiple windows and multiple applications now, on large screens. Many simply maximize their windows so that it looks like they're running only one application (thanks for that concept MS... yeah, right). Or shuffle inactive windows off the side of the screen, so they waste time constantly shifting windows around.

How would multiple windows suddenly change this on a tablet form factor?

Simply shrinking the Mac OS X Finder or blowing up the iPhone/iPod touch OS won't cut it. Perhaps some new iteration of Spaces, with a visual cue as to what else is running will work?

There are a lot of serious GUI issues that Apple will have to grapple with if their tablet is capable of running multiple applications on a small screen.