Big holiday season predicted to be just the beginning for Apple

[AppleInsider]

Apple is expected to have exceptional sales this holiday season to cap off an excellent 2009, but a new report predicts that 2010 will be even better based on anticipated iPhone sales.

In his latest note to investors, analyst Robert Cihra with Caris & Company has predicted that 2009 iPhone sales will be up 94 percent from 2008, with a total of 26.6 million handsets sold during the calendar year. But for 2010, he expects Apple to sell a total of 36.6 million iPhones.

Even with that growth, Apple would only command about 16 percent of the worldwide smartphone market share, and less than 3 percent of the overall cellphone market.

"Awfully conservative, we think," Cihra wrote, "for what is unquestionably now the most top-of-mind phone/software/delivery platform across its entire industry from handset competitors through carriers."

The report predicts that when Apple reports it September quarter earnings on Oct. 19, the iPhone will account for 25 percent of reported revenues, or 38 percent of revenue non-generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). More specifically, the iPhone would represent virtually all of Apple's year-over-year growth.

Cihra said he expects iPod growth to be slower, despite the debut of new hardware in September. However, he continues to see the iPod touch as an "ace up Apple's sleeve."

The research note also predicts that Mac sales in the concluded September quarter will be strong, with 2.8 million shipments. However, given rumors of hardware refreshes and new models for the MacBook, iMac and Mac mini lines, Cihra believes the December quarter will see a boost in sales. He expects a new plastic MacBook to have a lower entry price than today's single $999 offering.

"Make no mistake," he said, "Apple intends to keep gaining PC share."



Apple has warned its retailers that the iMac and Mac mini will see supply constraints in coming weeks, fueling speculation that new hardware is imminent. Sources have indicated to AppleInsider that the company is ready and waiting with a redesigned iMac line.

Apple is also expected to retain and redesign its low-cost polycarbonate MacBook at a more affordable price and multiple new models.

Caris & Company has upped its price target to $235 for AAPL stock, and has reiterated its recommendation to buy.

[souliisoul]

basically more money for me. Yes I am shareholder :-)

[anantksundaram]

Too much optimism. People are piling on too much, too fast.

[teckstud]

Originally Posted by souliisoul

basically more money for me. Yes I am shareholder :-)

But $ only realized unless you sell - no?

[teckstud]

Originally Posted by anantksundaram

Too much optimism. People are piling on too much, too fast.

And Windows 7 hasn't even been released nor reviewed yet- right?

[anantksundaram]

Originally Posted by teckstud

But $ only realized unless you sell - no?

Not when you can borrow against your underlying asset value (e.g., buying stock on margin).

[anantksundaram]

Originally Posted by teckstud

And Windows 7 hasn't even been released nor reviewed yet- right?

Yes, that.

Two, the tablet/pad/whatever (on which many of the '10 numbers are premised) is still vaporware. We have to see what it is, what it does, how it is priced, how many people are interested, how it performs in the wild, and so forth. I feel like there could be a speculative bubble on AAPL coming around the Tablet. Indeed, the perception that such a price runup could happen will make it a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Three, I am worried about re-establishing the "Apple is SJ and SJ is Apple" association. It brings back possible volatility in AAPL stock price, just when the market seemed to have started to shrug off the issue.

[mr O]

… what to do what to do?

My sister bought a Macbook last Friday! I've told her to keep it in the box because a refresh is imminent. She even went to the Apple store on my premises.

At the moment she is getting fed up with me … so what should I say other than blaming Appleinsider

[teckstud]

Originally Posted by mr O

… what to do what to do?

My sister bought a Macbook last Friday! I've told her to keep it in the box because a refresh is imminent. She even went to the Apple store on my premises.

At the moment she is getting fed up with me … so what should I say other than blaming Appleinsider

Blame me.

Seriously take it back and wait 3 weeks.

[souliisoul]

Originally Posted by anantksundaram

Not when you can borrow against your underlying asset value (e.g., buying stock on margin).

Totally agreed and additionally if you bought them over 10 years ago at $18-19 per share, simply because you loved the company, products and wanted to be part of company. Actually I took a very large amount of my bonus and was told I was very stupid and MS was the way to go.

I am very glad, I am stupid and others who were advising me are so intelligent. Sometimes you just have to go with your heart or gut instinct.

I will not sell until I retired, which i over 20 years away for my dream trip.

[teckstud]

Originally Posted by souliisoul

Totally agreed and additionally if you bought them over 10 years ago at $18-19 per share, simply because you loved the company, products and wanted to be part of company. Actually I took a very large amount of my bonus and was told I was very stupid and MS was the way to go.

I am very glad, I am stupid and others who were advising me are so intelligent. Sometimes you just have to go with your heart or gut instinct.

I will not sell until I retired, which i over 20 years away for my dream trip.

May it split many times over during that period for you.

[teckstud]

BTW- when is the iMac event to be announced? It's almost November- I saw Christmas trees in Home Depot today!

[charlituna]

Originally Posted by AppleInsider

Apple is also expected to retain and redesign its low-cost polycarbonate MacBook at a more affordable price and multiple new models.

or not. folks seem to be forgetting that the laptops just had a refresh and price drop in June. Maybe they will do a blanket $100 price drop on all the models. maybe they will even add the anti-glare as an online custom item for the 13 inch pro models.

but maybe they will do nothing with the laptops. After all, we haven't heard rumors of those being in short supply to the resellers.

Originally Posted by anantksundaram

Too much optimism. People are piling on too much, too fast.

yep. too many folks are assuming that Apple is going to follow everyone else with cut down prices, blu-ray etc.

Originally Posted by anantksundaram

Three, I am worried about re-establishing the "Apple is SJ and SJ is Apple" association. It brings back possible volatility in AAPL stock price, just when the market seemed to have started to shrug off the issue.

Jobs and Apple have done pretty well over the last year of exposing the masses to the other faces so I don't think that that is as much of a worry as before.

Originally Posted by mr O

My sister bought a Macbook last Friday! I've told her to keep it in the box because a refresh is imminent. She even went to the Apple store on my premises

they have a 14 day return period. if she's going to return it and wait and see you are correct the she might as well go ahead and do it rather than risk forgetting and having them tell her that they won't make an exception cause she was two weeks over.

however if you are wrong, be prepared to some serious smack down action.

[teckstud]

Originally Posted by charlituna

yep. too many folks are assuming that Apple is going to follow everyone else with cut down prices, blu-ray etc.

You still think Apple is not to go Blu?

[Bregalad]

Originally Posted by teckstud

You still think Apple is not to go Blu?

Steve Jobs sees optical media the same way he saw floppy disks in 1997. I'd be surprised to see a BD player in a Mac. Then again, after years of dissing FM radio, Apple put a receiver in the iPod nano so anything's possible.

I'm not convinced there will be a notebook update this month. The last update wasn't long ago and Apple typically likes to go into strong shopping seasons with old models so they can ensure good supply. They know introducing a new model causes a sales spike all by itself and would rather see that spike in a different quarter than one that already has a seasonal spike.

[anantksundaram]

Originally Posted by teckstud

May it split many times over during that period for you.

Splits do nothing to create or destroy value, since EPS falls commensurately. It is no different than my saying "I feel richer because I have two $5 bills in my pocket than one $10 bill."

[bobrik]

(found answer on Wikipedia)

[buceta]

Lets hope this holiday season will spell the beginning of the end for the blackberry. Also lets hope it will squish the Android back out of existence.

[Bageljoey]

Originally Posted by anantksundaram

Splits do nothing to create or destroy value, since EPS falls commensurately. It is no different than my saying "I feel richer because I have two $5 bills in my pocket than one $10 bill."

Yeah, it is amazing to me how many people don't get that...

OTOH, splits usually happen after the price has run up, so many splits might be an indication that price has gone up steadily over the period. It wouldn't be the cause, but it might be a good indicator...

[teckstud]

Originally Posted by anantksundaram

Splits do nothing to create or destroy value, since EPS falls commensurately. It is no different than my saying "I feel richer because I have two $5 bills in my pocket than one $10 bill."

Don't you have then more options available? Sell, etc?

[teckstud]

Originally Posted by Bregalad

Steve Jobs sees optical media the same way he saw floppy disks in 1997. I'd be surprised to see a BD player in a Mac. Then again, after years of dissing FM radio, Apple put a receiver in the iPod nano so anything's possible.

How does anyone know what Steve Jobs sees anymore than what Madonna sees?
Who knew he saw the Touch as a gaming device before he laid that claim on buyers? At what point will he stop "seeing" the AppleTv as a "hobby"?
The list is endless.
Bottomline- no one knows what lurks.....

[anantksundaram]

Originally Posted by Bageljoey

OTOH, splits usually happen after the price has run up, so many splits might be an indication that price has gone up steadily over the period. It wouldn't be the cause, but it might be a good indicator...

You are absolutely right. Studies do show that they signal slight cash flow optimism, resulting in a short-term (i.e., a few days around the announcement) excess return of 1% - 2%.

[anantksundaram]

Originally Posted by teckstud

Don't you have then more options available? Sell, etc?

Not really. If you mean call and put option prices, those too adjust.

[teckstud]

Originally Posted by anantksundaram

You are absolutely right. Studies do show that they signal slight cash flow optimism, resulting in a short-term (i.e., a few days around the announcement) excess return of 1% - 2%.

Ok - so why no Apple split? You think it need to go over $200 first?

[NeilM]

Originally Posted by anantksundaram

Not when you can borrow against your underlying asset value (e.g., buying stock on margin).

Because that strategy worked so well in the housing market...

[NasserAE]

Originally Posted by teckstud

Ok - so why no Apple split? You think it need to go over $200 first?

Apple said no more splits..

[anantksundaram]

Originally Posted by NeilM

Because that strategy worked so well in the housing market...

Yeah, and therefore, houses are now only bought with 100% cash.

[anantksundaram]

Originally Posted by teckstud

Ok - so why no Apple split? You think it need to go over $200 first?

No clue.

As to "why no split," perhaps because it doesn't really matter much one way or another, and because Peter Oppenheimer worries more about getting financial policies right on the real things his company does, than the paper-shuffling (which many companies get caught up with).

[anantksundaram]

Originally Posted by NasserAE

Apple said no more splits..

Apple - well, SJ - also said that nobody reads anymore. Yet, there's an Apple book-reading device supposedly on its way.....

[NasserAE]

Originally Posted by anantksundaram

Apple - well, SJ - also said that nobody reads anymore. Yet, there's an Apple book-reading device supposedly on its way.....

Well, he is the CEO and I will take his word regarding financial decisions. I use my MacBook Pro and iPhone to read articles and e-books that doesn't make it a book-reading device

[AdamIIGS]

Originally Posted by anantksundaram

No clue.

As to "why no split," perhaps because it doesn't really matter much one way or another, and because Peter Oppenheimer worries more about getting financial policies right on the real things his company does, than the paper-shuffling (which many companies get caught up with).

The reason for no split is so that it makes it harder for small movers / day trading having a large effect on your stock price / company valuation.

[Moler]

Originally Posted by AppleInsider

"Make no mistake," he said, "Apple intends to keep gaining PC share."

Earth is round, water is wet... of course they INTEND to keep gaining PC market share, how about ANALYZING will they be able to do that. Seriously these "analysts" are just corporate lobbyist without any regards towards small investors.

[wordwise]

Originally Posted by AdamIIGS

The reason for no split is so that it makes it harder for small movers / day trading having a large effect on your stock price / company valuation.

I thought splits only 'helped' when a company declared dividends - usually per share. If you buy one, and then it splits in two and they declare dividends per share, you get double the dividends...except Apple doesn't declare dividends.

[jragosta]

Originally Posted by wordwise

I thought splits only 'helped' when a company declared dividends - usually per share. If you buy one, and then it splits in two and they declare dividends per share, you get double the dividends...except Apple doesn't declare dividends.

Here's a tip for you.

Do NOT buy stocks. Ever. You're obviously too stupid to do so. Stick with mutual funds.

If the stock splits and then dividends are announced, the dividends will also be split. Basically, a board decides on dividends as a percentage of lower share value or percentage of profits or whatever. That dividend is divided by the number of open shares. If the number of shares doubles, the dividend per share is halved - so for any given dollar investment, you would receive the same dollars in dividends.

[xwiredtva]

Legit?

http://db.xbench.com/merge.xhtml?doc1=396931

Shows a Mini with 6gb of ram.

[xwiredtva]

Originally Posted by jragosta

Here's a tip for you.

Do NOT buy stocks. Ever. You're obviously too stupid to do so. Stick with mutual funds.

If the stock splits and then dividends are announced, the dividends will also be split. Basically, a board decides on dividends as a percentage of lower share value or percentage of profits or whatever. That dividend is divided by the number of open shares. If the number of shares doubles, the dividend per share is halved - so for any given dollar investment, you would receive the same dollars in dividends.

Someone once said on CNBC (back when Apple was below $50 a share in 2005) that if Apple were to release div's on stock even at 1% you could expect the stock to triple overnight... I bought in at that time ($42.xx) with all our savings... Still waiting on the Divs... I'm not upset and I didn't file the class action BS that went out either. I vote with the board because it seems to work.

[aaarrrgggh]

Originally Posted by NasserAE

Apple said no more splits..

But that was when Eric Schmidt was on the board...

Splits are useful in many ways; as Techstud says, you can sell a little (but keep it a full lot), and it does open the opportunity to trade around a position a little better. No real material change, but lots of people like buying even lots and a lower price can simplify that. Big money buys in much larger blocks, so it doesn't really matter to the real market makers.

If you have a 100% gain, you are a fool to not try and opportunistically sell some and buy back as it retreats on 5-10% moves. Diversify a little; you never know when things will get really bad. It also helps you spot broader market patterns that can impact your main holdings.

(And can I put a Hoo Raaay out to Google going up $20 today and doing a lot of good on my $530 strike calls?! Still hoping the $620 strike calls will come into the money by January!)

[aaarrrgggh]

Originally Posted by xwiredtva

Someone once said on CNBC (back when Apple was below $50 a share in 2005) that if Apple were to release div's on stock even at 1% you could expect the stock to triple overnight... I bought in at that time ($42.xx) with all our savings... Still waiting on the Divs... I'm not upset and I didn't file the class action BS that went out either. I vote with the board because it seems to work.

Well, look at what dividends (and share buybacks) did to MSFT. If Apple can manage continued 20-25% growth, I am happy to let them hold on to the cash in hopes of making good strategic moves.

All you should do with the dividends (at less than 4% or so) is reinvest them, so it doesn't really change the picture much.

[anonymouse]

Originally Posted by anantksundaram

You are absolutely right. Studies do show that they signal slight cash flow optimism, resulting in a short-term (i.e., a few days around the announcement) excess return of 1% - 2%.

Interesting. I don't really follow these matters (mutual funds for me, too many other things to think about) but I would have expected that there might be some slight longer term effect, psychological, based on the perception of value (i.e., people being used to it be "higher"), that might keep it slightly elevated relative to the market. But, maybe all the computerized trading wipes out these sorts of effects, except when the whole market takes leave of it's senses.

[xwiredtva]

Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh

Well, look at what dividends (and share buybacks) did to MSFT. If Apple can manage continued 20-25% growth, I am happy to let them hold on to the cash in hopes of making good strategic moves.

All you should do with the dividends (at less than 4% or so) is reinvest them, so it doesn't really change the picture much.

Absolutely! That's what I do.