Multi-phone Android platform seen overtaking iPhone by 2012

[AppleInsider]

Due to its presence on multiple manufacturers' devices, Android will overtake Apple's iPhone in terms of market share by 2012, an analyst has predicted.

Ken Dulaney, vice president and distinguished analyst with research firm Gartner, said he believes the iPhone will maintain its No. 3 overall smartphone position. But the current second-place platform from Research in Motion will lose more than 7 percent total market share, while he expects Android to grow in leaps and bounds and take that spot. Symbian OS from Nokia is expected to stay on top.

The forecast is part of a presentation Dulaney is scheduled to give at Gartner's Symposium ITxpo, which runs Oct. 18 through 22 in Orlando. The data is based on an estimated 522 million smartphones to be shipped during the period.

"All players in smartphones should see good growth at the expense of the next category down, feature phones which are in turn moving down into the category that used to be called basic phones," Dulaney told AppleInsider.

Apple currently has a 10.8 percent share of the smartphone market, which is predicted to grow to 13.7 percent by 2012, with sales of 71.5 million units. And even though Symbian and Nokia are predicted to lose 10 percent of the market, the platform's massive lead keeps it well ahead of competitors with 39 percent in 2012.

Dulaney said he believes Android will surpass the iPhone in market share because many handset makers are "betting their future" on Google's Android platform, while Apple is only one company.

"Android rises to number two simply because, unlike Apple, they license their OS to multiple OEMs," Dulaney said. "They have the number 2 OEM, Samsung, and strong players like LG, Motorola, HTC and now Dell. There are others in the works. Apple will still likely have the top of mind in the marketplace with probably the most purely defined consumer product."



Dulaney's forecast is lower than an August prediction by Mike Abramsky with RBC Capital Markets. He believes that total iPhone shipments will hit 82.1 million in 2012, good for a 16.3 percent share of the smartphone market.

[ View this article at AppleInsider.com ]

[stokessd]

Much like "plays for sure" was on multiple MP3 players and we all saw how well that turned out. Now android has a lot more going for it than plays for sure ever did, and I really hope is continues to do well, but the it's on multiple platforms doesn't guarantee success.

Sheldon

[Quadra 610]

I guess the assumption is Apple's iPhone development will remain flat?

Android rises to number two simply because, unlike Apple, they license their OS to multiple OEMs

We're actually seeing why that *is not* a recipe for success.

[Wings]

Dan has an excellent piece about this fantasy story here:
http://www.roughlydrafted.com/2009/1...r-in-2012-why/
He makes a whole lot of sense, explaining why Gartner's shill income is about to evaporate from WinMo and has to look elsewhere for FUD dollars.

[Maestro64]

I just love these analysis.... I can not say who will win or lose at this point, but the OS is not what is going to drive smartphone sales, it all the apps that make a smartphone usable.

So will google and its many partners be able to put together apps that work equally well across the board has yet to be seen. I suspect there will be problems, maybe not technically problem with the apps working, but infighting on who gets what profits from those sales and what store is allow to sell them. Think about this, say you bought a app form say a Verizon app store for a Motorola android phone and then you move to t-mobile with a LG andriod phone will you be able to take the app with you and have it work on that phone.

I think you see where I am going... this seem to be destine for failure as everyone grabs for the money.

Apple make it simple and that is the model to follow...

[Ireland]

I would have said a year ago that Android would be ahead of iPhone OS by 2012, but I no longer think this is true. The iPhone has become far to pervasive at this stage, and it's to well setup and easy a choice with iTunes and all the apps etc.

It will be more like iPhone OS 15%, Android 12%.

[talksense101]

Android is still evolving. There are early adopters releasing devices like the HTC Hero, but version 1.6 just came out. Give it a year or so and it will shine. It will never have the gaming capability of the iPhone - no thanks to the Dalvik Java VM on which it runs, but you never know as it is still too early.

It is good that Apple cannot rest on their laurels. If they don't innovate they perish.

[mbarriault]

Where, exactly does Symbian have this 50% smartphone market share? In all my travels I've never seen a Nokia smartphone on anything but a display shelf, but I see iPhones, WinMo phones, and Android phones everywhere, and even a few Pres. No Nokia.

[jasenj1]

Originally Posted by Maestro64

Think about this, say you bought a app form say a verizon app store for a motorola and android phone and then you move to t-mobile with a LG andriod phone will you be able to take the app with you and have it work on that phone.

I think you see where I am going... this seem to be destine for failure as everyone grabs for the money.

Exactly. Verizon is notorious for crippling their phones unless you pay them to unlock the features that are already on board. I expect the different carriers will lock down their phones with different DRM "features" to make sure only their apps run on their phones. Enabling this DRM checking will be a headache to developers who will have deal with different processes and levels of intrusiveness for all the carriers. In the end, devs - and users- will prefer Apple and its "one devil" model vs "lots of demons".

I expect the Android platform will be reasonably successful, but Apple's seamless, total-package approach, will dominate the splintered Android ecosystem.

- Jasen.

[Ireland]

Originally Posted by mbarriault

Where, exactly does Symbian have this 50% smartphone market share? In all my travels I've never seen a Nokia smartphone on anything but a display shelf, but I see iPhones, WinMo phones, and Android phones everywhere, and even a few Pres. No Nokia.

Did you ever travel outside American

[teckstud]

Originally Posted by Quadra 610

I guess the assumption is Apple's iPhone development will remain flat?

Android rises to number two simply because, unlike Apple, they license their OS to multiple OEMs

We're actually seeing why that *is not* a recipe for success.

Wrong- look to the RAZR which shows why relying on one phone will eventually do you in. The cell phone market is a highly fickle market. 3 years into the market and the fact is Apple has only 1 cellphone available and to the general public, it's getting stale. Where is the Nano version?
Also, this will be played out much differently than the PC game of the 1980's because here you have a very important deciding factor - AT&T which is getting slammed almost daily now. Funny how no posts are factoring in AT&T's badwill.

[al_bundy]

Originally Posted by Ireland

I would have said a year ago that Android would be ahead of iPhone OS by 2012, but I no longer think this is true. The iPhone has become far to pervasive at this stage, and it's to well setup and easy a choice with iTunes and all the apps etc.

It will be more like iPhone OS 15%, Android 12%.

cell phone contracts are 2 years and most people get a new phone when they renew a contract. it's not like an expensive Mac you keep and treasure for years.

I think iPhone is still better overall, but manufacturers are doing some good things on Android that will cause apple to allow background processing at the very minimum or face being a niche player again

[teckstud]

So now when does a lower stock forcast pop up by these fickle analysts?

[ivan.rnn01]

In unit sales? May be. In revenue? You must be kidding me.

[teckstud]

Originally Posted by al_bundy

I think iPhone is still better overall, but manufacturers are doing some good things on Android that will cause apple to allow background processing at the very minimum or face being a niche player again

I would be cool to back swipe to get to my previous app without having to close, launch, close, relaunch, over and over, etc, etc. iPhone is just not there yet. That seems more important than all these superfluous peripherals.
It's getting a little tiresome.

[teckstud]

Originally Posted by ivan.rnn01

In unit sales? May be. In revenue? You must be kidding me.

What will happen next June if iPhone remains only on AT&T and all these new phones and OS are offered elsewhere? Will people stay? 4.0 will need to be a major upgrade.

[al_bundy]

Motorola is doing some nice things with Android where different apps can talk to each other and trade data. and almost every phone will play aac files so you don't have to worry about migrating your music to another format

[Quadra 610]

Originally Posted by teckstud

Wrong- look to the RAZR which shows why relying on one phone will eventually do you in. The cell phone market is a highly fickle market. 3 years into the market and the fact is Apple has only 1 cellphone available and to the general public, it's getting stale. Where is the Nano version?
Also, this will be played out much differently than the PC game of the 1980's because here you have a very important deciding factor - AT&T which is getting slammed almost daily now.

The RAZR and the iPhone are about the same as night and day. The iPhone is a growth platform, a multifunction miniature computer with capabilities still untapped. The user experience is uniform, the OS functions the same on each iPhone. We might see other models, but it'll be veresions based on the same device - there won't be a Windows Mobile situation.

Why not compare it to Windows Mobile then, which is now languishing in single-digit land and still heading south.

I think what you meant is other models of the iPhone, but based on the same OS/hardware template. Is that what you were getting at?

[shadow]

Originally Posted by teckstud

Wrong- look to the RAZR which shows why relying on one phone will eventually do you in. The cell phone market is a highly fickle market. 3 years into the market and the fact is Apple has only 1 cellphone available and to the general public, it's getting stale. Where is the Nano version?
Also, this will be played out much differently than the PC game of the 1980's because here you have a very important deciding factor - AT&T which is getting slammed almost daily now.

iPhone managed to draw crowds three years in a row when introducing an incremental upgrade to the previous model. This is unprecedented. Apple will pull out a next gen device at some point, this is a no-brainer. The next gen device may not be perfect, but "stale" argument is busted from both sides:
- even one-only devise is still success for more than 2 years (3 revisions)
- there will be new device from Apple

Apple will also enter the lower-end segment at some point.
Apple will not stay with AT&T forever, and AT&T might improve

[Quadra 610]

Originally Posted by teckstud

What will happen next June if iPhone remains only on AT&T and all these new phones and OS are offered elsewhere? Will people stay? 4.0 will need to be a major upgrade.

Are you assuming iPhone development will . . . not happen?

Are you assuming by June the competition will have cleaned up its act? More phones on the market doesn't mean they'll be better than the iPhone.

I think it's safe to assume Apple has a development roadmap in place that will be very difficult for the competittion to follow. Apple has, after all, succeeded with the iPhone in the conspicuous absence of any real competition to drive them. Frankly, I'm more worried about everyone else than I am about Apple.

[teckstud]

Originally Posted by Quadra 610

The RAZR and the iPhone are about the same as night and day. The iPhone is a growth platform, a multifunction miniature computer with capabilities still untapped. The user experience is uniform, the OS functions the same on each iPhone. We might see other models, but it'll be veresions based on the same device - there won't be a Windows Mobile situation.

Why not compare it to Windows Mobile then, which is now languishing in single-digit land and still heading south.

I think what you meant is other models of the iPhone, but based on the same OS/hardware template. Is that what you were getting at?

Ok- I was talking about the physical device. The general public knows nothing about OS, platforms, etc. They see a device and how it looks- and its exactly the same after 3 years and they say "old school" especially when you have like 5 different Blackberry models soon to be 7 , etc. Apple should have more than one device- that's all I'm saying- be it made by them or whoever.

[Maestro64]

Originally Posted by mbarriault

Where, exactly does Symbian have this 50% smartphone market share? In all my travels I've never seen a Nokia smartphone on anything but a display shelf, but I see iPhones, WinMo phones, and Android phones everywhere, and even a few Pres. No Nokia.

My understand it the non-US markets that Nokia has this kind of market share

[teckstud]

Originally Posted by Quadra 610

Are you assuming iPhone development will . . . not happen?

Are you assuming by June the competition will have cleaned up its act? More phones on the market doesn't mean they'll be better than the iPhone.

I think it's safe to assume Apple has a development roadmap in place that will be very difficult for the competittion to follow. Apple has, after all, succeeded with the iPhone in the conspicuous absence of any real competition. Frankly, I'm more worried about everyone else than I am about Apple.

Again you never mention AT&T in the US which was the whole point of my post.
Assuming it remains on AT&T and doesn't go to Verizon- you think people will still migrate over in the record numbers of the last 2.25 years? I would think not- especially now with Androids, Pres, & new Blackberries about to flood the market.
Verizon is directly targeting both AT&T and Apple with agressive ads now because they see what they have lost in that same period. Verizon is no MS and is not #1 for nothing.

[joe in miami]

I don't know a single person who has an android phone. This story is utterly bullshit.

[shadow]

Originally Posted by al_bundy

cell phone contracts are 2 years and most people get a new phone when they renew a contract. it's not like an expensive Mac you keep and treasure for years.

You re-itterate Palm's argument which did not work for them. This was the case in pre-iPhone era: all phones were getting a bug-fixing firmware upgrade at best. All new features and functionality were coming with new phones.

Apple was the first to draw 3 major OS releases for it's first iPhone. There is a reason: they are building a platform. Abandoning a platform is not as easy as changing the phone.

Oh, in many European countries you can get fully unlocked iPhone (no carrier or country lock) with no contract whatsoever. You can use it with any SIM card, including post-paid ones. So, please forget those "2 years", this is US only and it can go away as soon as Apple decides to drop it.

[ivan.rnn01]

Originally Posted by teckstud

What will happen next June if iPhone remains only on AT&T and all these new phones and OS are offered elsewhere? Will people stay? 4.0 will need to be a major upgrade.

People will stay and will continue to be switching to iPhone. Just look once more at what happens, you'll see easily, that people are buying iPhones not for it is 8th technological wonder of the world.
Besides, there're rumors --- and I'm inclined to find them quite credible --- Sprint will get iPhone soon.

[Maestro64]

Originally Posted by teckstud

Wrong- look to the RAZR which shows why relying on one phone will eventually do you in. The cell phone market is a highly fickle market. 3 years into the market and the fact is Apple has only 1 cellphone available and to the general public, it's getting stale. Where is the Nano version?
Also, this will be played out much differently than the PC game of the 1980's because here you have a very important deciding factor - AT&T which is getting slammed almost daily now. Funny how no posts are factoring in AT&T's badwill.

Actually what happen with Motorola and the RAZR is they did not have follow on product, and they thought making it smaller was the path to success they missed the whole smart phone market and texting phone phenomenon coming on. Also they got killed by the fact that the Provides started giving the phone away so it devalued the product. The day we see apples products being given away with a service agreement is the day to sell the stock.

[Quadra 610]

Originally Posted by teckstud

Again you never mention AT&T in the US which was the whole point of my post.

Apple will not stick with AT&T forever.

Here in Canada, the Rogers-Apple exclusivity has ended. Bell and Telus will also offer the iPhone.

Apple's AT&T exclusivity deal was really a testing ground - in terms of testing the product's desirability (how well can the iPhone pull people to just a single carrier), and in terms of testing Apple's pull with a large US carrier in general - that is, how much power can they exert over a carrier and to what degree are they beholden to them.

Going exclusive with AT&T was a smart move, as it also kept demand for the iPhone fairly high (exclusivity = desirability.) But we'll see Apple branching out in the US or we'll see AT&T improve subtantially. Either way, you can bet Apple has a solid gameplan in place.

[teckstud]

Originally Posted by shadow

iPhone managed to draw crowds three years in a row when introducing an incremental upgrade to the previous model. This is unprecedented. Apple will pull out a next gen device at some point, this is a no-brainer. The next gen device may not be perfect, but "stale" argument is busted from both sides:
- even one-only devise is still success for more than 3 years
- there will be new device from Apple

Apple will also enter the lower-end segment at some point.
Apple will not stay with AT&T forever, and AT&T might improve

You mean more than 2 years.

[teckstud]

Originally Posted by Quadra 610

Apple will not stick with AT&T forever.

It's beginning to look that way.

[pauldfullerton]

Originally Posted by AppleInsider

Due to its presence on multiple manufacturers' devices, Android will overtake Apple's iPhone in terms of market share by 2012, an analyst has predicted.

Just as Windows PCs overtook the Mac in terms of market share - but that doesn't change the fact that the Mac/Mac OS X combination consistently has far better customer ratings than any IBM-compatible/Windows combination. Because Apple controls both hardware and operating system design the Mac has fewer hardware/software conflicts and offers far superior integration and innovation, while players in the Windows world are forced to compete purely on cost. It is likely that the iPhone versus Android competition will go the same way, with the iPhone remaining more expensive but earning much better user ratings, while the Android world will offer cheaper devices, but they will lag way behind the iPhone/iPod/iTablet in both quality, features and user ratings simply because nobody controls both hardware and software design. And then there is the Steve Jobs factor - something that Google and other smartphone manufacturers simple cannot copy.

[ivan.rnn01]

What is far more intriguing Linux can't overtake Mac OS.

[mattjumbo]

Originally Posted by teckstud

Wrong- look to the RAZR which shows why relying on one phone will eventually do you in. The cell phone market is a highly fickle market. 3 years into the market and the fact is Apple has only 1 cellphone available and to the general public, it's getting stale. Where is the Nano version?
Also, this will be played out much differently than the PC game of the 1980's because here you have a very important deciding factor - AT&T which is getting slammed almost daily now. Funny how no posts are factoring in AT&T's badwill.

The the smartphone market is nothing like the traditional cell phone market. The smartphone market is akin to the PC wars of the early 80s.

Contrary to popular belief, there is no evidence whatsoever that Apple "lost" (did they really lose? they are still making computers when other manus of that time are long dead. they are still making money on hardware when almost no one else is) because they failed to license their technology.

They lost because they had no developer support.

With iPods, the ecosystem, the peripherals, the cases...these were the "developers". Apple won there. Apple is going to win in smart phones.

In five years time, not only will Apple be number one in the smartphone market, they may well have a Windows-esque, iPod-esque marketshare.

With the huge iPod Touch/IPhone peripheral market, Apple's dominance of the NAND flash marketplace, and 8 gazillion apps, this race is as good as over.

Write it down.

[Maestro64]

What I think we will see is a huge splintering of the smart phone OS markets. Nokia has already announce they will be doing a deal with MS with their new Windows Mobile and also announce they will be doing some sort a deal with a Linux based OS, all of a sudden where Nokia was a single OS company they will end up with 3, other companies are doing similar things. This could spell doom for them. Motorola is doing an android phone and possible another symbian phone as well. Lets not forget about Palm in this mix as well.

I think we you see the market split between Apple, Android and Symbian and they all tradiing back and forth in market share. The only reason I see Android or Symbian getting more share is the companies who sell those phone allowing the Providers to give the phones away to look in a deal. One sure fire way to gain market share is to give your product away. This why the Motorola RAZR was the best selling phone today, that one model shipped over 150M phones in 3 years and that helped put Motorola where it is today #5 in market share from #2 position 3 yrs ago.

[Maestro64]

Originally Posted by teckstud

Ok- I was talking about the physical device. The general public knows nothing about OS, platforms, etc. They see a device and how it looks- and its exactly the same after 3 years and they say "old school" especially when you have like 5 different Blackberry models soon to be 7 , etc. Apple should have more than one device- that's all I'm saying- be it made by them or whoever.

Actaully Motorola had about 20 different models of phones and the RAZR did change with time.... Again having too many models is bad in some regards, unless you the master of up selling like Sony in which they make 10 different model of product like Camcorder and each one has a feature the previous model does not have and you do not get all the features until you get to the top of the line. Personally I hate this, and I like how apples has always done it keep it simple a few different models with distinct uses verse the who Sony and or Dell model of selling a product. You have to spend way too much time trying to figure out exactly what is different and if having something or now is worth it to you.

[GQB]

Fake Steve pretty well nails it on this one...
http://www.fakesteve.net/2009/10/so-...h-android.html

[anonymouse]

Originally Posted by pauldfullerton

Just as Windows PCs overtook the Mac in terms of market share

Apart from the rest of your post, there are a few problems with this analogy.

1. The Mac was not overtaken by Windows PCs in market share. Apple computers (mainly Apple IIs) were overtaken by computers running MS DOS.

2. The computers running MS DOS were backed by IBM, which was at the time a much much larger force in the computing world than any company is today, Google and Microsoft included.

3. Windows achieved dominance over the Mac based on the perceived ease of transitioning from what was already the dominant personal computing platform.

None of these factors really apply in the case of iPhone vs. Android.

[GQB]

Originally Posted by mbarriault

Where, exactly does Symbian have this 50% smartphone market share? In all my travels I've never seen a Nokia smartphone on anything but a display shelf, but I see iPhones, WinMo phones, and Android phones everywhere, and even a few Pres. No Nokia.

That number is from legacy phones.
Its atrophy rate will continue rapidly unless they get into the 21st century. Probably by by Nokia buying Palm.

[anonymouse]

Originally Posted by Ireland

Did you ever travel outside American

I wonder if Kimi Raikkonen has an iPhone or a Nokia phone?

[SpamSandwich]

Originally Posted by joe in miami

I don't know a single person who has an android phone. This story is utterly bullshit.

Have to agree with you. I know of no one with an Android phone, and only know one person with a Pre... all phones other than iPhone will soon face extinction (assuming the end of at&t eclusivity is nigh).