History suggests Windows 7 launch could boost Mac sales

[AppleInsider]

Rather than negatively impacting Mac sales, a new report provides evidence that the impending launch of Windows 7 could actually be a boon for Apple.

In a new research note to investors, Brian Marshall with Broadpoint.AmTech looked at the historical trends of new Windows launches and the impact on Mac sales. He found that, if anything, Microsoft's debuts were a benefit to Apple.

"We have concluded that no negative correlation exists on AAPL's hardware sales when Microsoft launches a new OS," Marshall said. "Ironically, we believe new OS launches from MSFT may have acted as a 'delayed accelerant' to AAPL's computing sales. However, we believe AAPL's success (or failure) in the computing market is largely idiosyncratic (or company-specific) in nature and not dependent on others in the industry."

First reported by Fortune Brainstorm Tech, the findings show how Mac sales figures have consistently grown every time a new Windows operating system launched over the last 10 years. Mac sales spiked following the debut of Windows 98, Windows 200, Windows XP and Windows Vista.

Marshall said he believes that Apple could double its share of the worldwide computing market over the next five years. That would take the Mac from its current share of roughly 4 percent to 8 percent by the end of 2014.



Apple launched its own operating system in late August, and Snow Leopard got off to a very strong start. Sales of Mac OS X 10.6 have been twice as strong as its predecessor, Leopard, and four times better than Tiger.

Apple is due to report its September quarter results on Monday, Oct. 19. Marshall expects strong earnings from Apple, with 2.8 million Macs, 7 million iPhones and 10 million iPods sold during the frame. If true, those numbers would be in-line with other projections.

"In our view, Apple is 'THE' undisputed growth name in tech with numerous catalysts on the horizon (e.g. China iPhone ramp, netbook/tablet launch, etc.) and no business model issues," he said. "In addition, AAPL is currently benefiting from a positive mix shift (to higher margin iPhones/iPod touches)."

Broadpoint.AmTech has reiterated its buy rating and has a price target of $210 for AAPL stock.

[stevemost]

I guess the article's premise is true, but it is also true that Mac sales, in that same time period, have grown as I age, as IBM advertises, as Google grows...

Hopefully Apple and Macs keep on growing, and I keep on aging.

[floccus]

Leading up to XP there was the TiBook and Cube, which I'd actually presume is why those numbers increased in that period. The spike from Win2K might more be backlash against Me. Vista obviously needs no explanation. With how close some of the UI features of Win7 are to OS X now, I think people will find it easier/better to jump over if Apple can break the $999 barrier with an iBook/iMac.

[teckstud]

Double in 5 years? Haven't we've heard that for like the last 10 years ? Must be a true fanbot.

[trip1ex]

Considering it is pain in the ass to switch from XP to Win7 I can see why Mac sales would rise.

[macmondo]

what a stupid hypothesis is this article. But I know, these analists have to do something to show they've done their job.
It's possible that when one company advertises its products, it can animate the competitors' consumers, as well. But the result always depends on the strategy and the productline of each company.
So this article for me was just blablabla, with no sense. Sorry.

[pembroke]

Wow, what extraordinary statistics. Smacks of wishful thinking though. Windows 7 by most accounts is going to be quite an enjoyable (relative to VISTA) experience. Let's see how Apple responds.

[Intense]

Originally Posted by stevemost

I guess the article's premise is true, but it is also true that Mac sales, in that same time period, have grown as I age, as IBM advertises, as Google grows...

Hopefully Apple and Macs keep on growing, and I keep on aging.

So true.... most things grow in one way or another

[anantksundaram]

Originally Posted by pembroke

Let's see how Apple responds.

Are you expecting something in addition to Snow Leopard?

[Rob55]

I don't think the launch of W7 will be as much of a boon (if at all) as previous MS OS launches have been in the past. Considering the early word about W7 is relatively positive, I think it will give PC users less of a reason to switch. However, having beta tested W7 (and Vista before it), I still prefer OS-X and my Macs.

[Quadra 610]

"In our view, Apple is 'THE' undisputed growth name in tech with numerous catalysts on the horizon (e.g. China iPhone ramp, netbook/tablet launch, etc.) and no business model issues," he said. "In addition, AAPL is currently benefiting from a positive mix shift (to higher margin iPhones/iPod touches)."


This is true. There's no regaining the Premium segment of the market for MS. MS simply doesn't have the ecosystem Apple does. Their business model simply doesn't support it. If Windows 7 could make the perfect cup of espresso as well, it still wouldn't dent Apple's growth. You get to a point where you've lost so much mindshare, while your opponent has gained so much ground (and in a 1st class segment of the market) that the road back to desirability will be all the more rocky.

Windows 7 might boost generic PC sales, but it will really have no relationship to Mac sales. There's no "gaining back lost market share" for MS. MS is now confined to the low end and mid-end of the market and that's not going to change anytime soon. Consumers in the Premium segment who have $1000 to spend are looking for Macs, and in a recession, and in the presence of heavily adverstised lower-cost (allegedly high-value) alternatives. These people sure as hell aren't going to look at a generic PC, Windows 7 or not.

[ascii]

I don't know how they are drawing that conclusion. The graph just seems to continue mostly as it was at the Windows release points. If it was flat it stays flat. If it was going up it keeps going up. There is a spike in 1Q2000 but that's just one quarter, and there was probably a Macworld at that time of year.

[Abster2core]

Originally Posted by macmondo

what a stupid hypothesis is this article. But I know, these analists have to do something to show they've done their job.
It's possible that when one company advertises its products, it can animate the competitors' consumers, as well. But the result always depends on the strategy and the productline of each company.
So this article for me was just blablabla, with no sense. Sorry.

That is exactly what the analyst said, i.e., ""We have concluded that no negative correlation exists on AAPL's hardware sales when Microsoft launches a new OS," Marshall said. "Ironically, we believe new OS launches from MSFT may have acted as a 'delayed accelerant' to AAPL's computing sales. However, we believe AAPL's success (or failure) in the computing market is largely idiosyncratic (or company-specific) in nature and not dependent on others in the industry."

Basically, this analyst was recommending his investors, that based on trending historical data, should not worry about MS's launch of Windows 7, and to continue buying Apple stock. That's all.

Note: The referenced graph is simply an overall presentation of Apple's sales trend relative to MS's major OS introductions. The data collected by the agency for these periods are far more extensive and comprehensive than displayed here. We are only getting a smidgen of the reported data; we are not privileged to the collection protocol, we are not investor subscribers or clients of the agency; and we are not entitled to any more.

[Gwydion]

My God, what a nonsense graphic

[Zoolook]

Do we need to go back to school here guys? Correlation and causation...

[flash2004]

I have switched permanently from Win XP to Snow Leopard now.. (since it was an easier transition for me than to Win 7 which has still not released officially)
So I guess that a lot of people will be inthe same boat

[iReality85]

It could go either way I supposed. Win7 will see much of the leftover XP crowd, which still lingers around the 50% mark (particularly among businesses), to take the next step up. But, I'm not sure that will lead to increased Mac growth because you don't need a Mac to run Windows, so the need for current Windows users to buy a Mac (to run Windows) probably isn't that high. Certainly, Mac users who also run Windows on their machines will be highly tempted to install Win7, so on that front Apple might benefit from a hardware point of view, as the combination of SL and Win7 may cause Apple's base to upgrade their machines (presuming some Leopard users on older hardware are waiting for SL and Win7 to both be out, and make the jump).

Time will tell.

[Hutcho]

You Apple fan boys believe there is some war going on between Microsoft and Apple. I can assure you there is not. Apple is less than a thorn in Microsoft's side. In fact, like the article suggests, Microsoft profits every time a user buys an Apple, because they often buy a copy of Windows or more likely Office at the same time. Sure, they would rather you buy a PC, but they don't really care.

Microsoft's main battle is with Google. As long as they win this battle, or have a stake in it, they really don't care about Apple, which is as niche as they come.

[rgbfoundry]

I was so pleasantly surprised to see that most of the comments here don't blindly agree with the study. I don't see strong Mac growth immediately after the release of Win2000 and XP. How they came up with this… I don't know. I think it's probably some analyst trying to justify a gut feeling to buy Apple.

Windows 7 is looking good by most accounts. It's up to the hackers to see if they can prove otherwise.

[Rob55]

Originally Posted by Hutcho

...they really don't care about Apple, which is as niche as they come.

If Apple is "so niche", why did MS even bother with the "laptop hunters" series of ads or the "I'm a PC" series of ads to counter Apple's ads? For a company that's "less than a thorn" in MS' side, they sure seem to react like Apple really is more than a thorn in their side.

[camroidv27]

Originally Posted by Rob55

If Apple is "so niche", why did MS even bother with the "laptop hunters" series of ads or the "I'm a PC" series of ads to counter Apple's ads? For a company that's "less than a thorn" in MS' side, they sure seem to react like Apple really is more than a thorn in their side.

MS really couldn't care. Sales are sales (though often its XP that is bought on a Mac).
But, its HP, Dell, Toshiba, Acer, Lenovo, etc. who are putting the pressure on MS. That's why we see the commercials.
Also, I think Balmer is irritated by the little thorns. That guy has got to go.

Side note: Who came up with that graph? It shows that after every MS OS release, the immediate next quarter had a DECLINE in Mac Sales... EVEN VISTA!

[Quadra 610]

Originally Posted by Hutcho

You Apple fan boys believe there is some war going on between Microsoft and Apple. I can assure you there is not. Apple is less than a thorn in Microsoft's side. In fact, like the article suggests, Microsoft profits every time a user buys an Apple, because they often buy a copy of Windows or more likely Office at the same time. Sure, they would rather you buy a PC, but they don't really care.

Microsoft's main battle is with Google. As long as they win this battle, or have a stake in it, they really don't care about Apple, which is as niche as they come.

Only problem is, MS lost the Premim market to Apple. That's a big problem. A big image problem. And they've spent an ungodly amount on advertising to attempt to repair it. And it hasn't worked.

[hezekiahb]

Originally Posted by stevemost

I guess the article's premise is true, but it is also true that Mac sales, in that same time period, have grown as I age, as IBM advertises, as Google grows...

Hopefully Apple and Macs keep on growing, and I keep on aging.

A lot of analysis that I think could have a much simpler explanation. People thinking about getting a computer wait until the Windows OS release to see which is going to be the better purchase for them, Mac or PC.

Sales of Macs will go up because some of those people holding off will go ahead & decide to get the Mac. Question is how much will they go up & will it be enough to advance their share in the market.

Vista saw a huge spike because the OS fell on it's face. I doubt Windows 7 will be the same story all together, though with Apple having some success penetrating the business & corporate world there may be little that MSFT can do to slow their pace all together. Despite the possible success of Win 7 I think we will still see a dramatic increase in Mac sales but I think it will be driven now more by their increasing friendliness with business & their lowering in price.

Now would be a great time for Apple to release Mac & PC ads targeting the inaccuracy of claims that Macs can't do business.

[teckstud]

Expect huge profits for Microsoft once corporations start swirtching from XP to 7. That is the real story here. It will be a boom to the US economy.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/13/business/13views.html

[teckstud]

Originally Posted by Quadra 610

Only problem is, MS lost the Premim market to Apple. That's a big problem. A big image problem. And they've spent an ungodly amount on advertising to attempt to repair it. And it hasn't worked.

What they've spent PALES in comparison to what Apple has spent over the las t 5 years on TV advertising to gain a measly 3-5%. What did you put in your coffee this morning?

[al_bundy]

Originally Posted by Quadra 610

Only problem is, MS lost the Premim market to Apple. That's a big problem. A big image problem. And they've spent an ungodly amount on advertising to attempt to repair it. And it hasn't worked.

no they didn't since apple only sells either computers with laptop parts or server parts for the mac pro. not even the build it yourself people care about paying for something like a Mac Pro which is a niche product.

and for the rest Dell and HP sell desktop computers with desktop CPU's and parts which are more powerful than the laptop parts apple sells. for most people there is no need to spend $1000 for a computer because you can get more performance for less. and since iphones and ipods work just fine on Windows, there is no need for a Mac

[LuisDias]

Originally Posted by teckstud

Expect huge profits for Microsoft once corporations start swirtching from XP to 7. That is the real story here. It will be a boom to the US economy.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/13/business/13views.html

So taxes are a boom for industry, now?

How on earth centralizing money within Microsoft will boom the economy is beyond me. Perhaps you are speaking of renewed importance on IT shops, new kinds of problems, etc. I don't think it's worth it. At all.

[LuisDias]

Originally Posted by teckstud

What they've spent PALES in comparison to what Apple has spent over the las t 5 years to gain a measly 3-5%. What did you put in your coffee this morning?

Do you have the numbers, teck? That would be useful. Think that from the company's perspective, they got the best 3-5% of them all, which includes 90% of 1000+ dollars laptops bought by consumers, for instance. It may be as worthy as the bottom 20-30%.

[teckstud]

Originally Posted by LuisDias

Do you have the numbers, teck? That would be useful. Think that from the company's perspective, they got the best 3-5% of them all, which includes 90% of 1000+ dollars laptops bought by consumers, for instance. It may be as worthy as the bottom 20-30%.

I meant TV advertising.

[Quadra 610]

Originally Posted by teckstud

What they've spent PALES in comparison to what Apple has spent over the las t 5 years to gain a measly 3-5%. What did you put in your coffee this morning?

Money well spent. The Premium market is the most coveted. Once you've lost that, it's all about fighting like mad for the bottom end. An embarrssing position for MS, to say the least. And a very sore point for Ballmer. Nearly every time he makes public comments it's always about Apple and how MS "has more work to do", "rounding errors", etc.

If your brand isn't the Gold Standard of its industry, it'll be in a constant deficit in terms of image, desriability, and brand loyalty.

The best computers in the industry - as in, the ones people with $$ are buying, aren't Windows PCs. Big problem.

[teckstud]

Originally Posted by Quadra 610

Only problem is, MS lost the Premim market to Apple. That's a big problem. A big image problem. And they've spent an ungodly amount on advertising to attempt to repair it. And it hasn't worked.

A far bigger problem is that Apple barely has penetrated the corporate martket- which in reality is far the biggest "premium" market anyway.

[geekdad]

Originally Posted by teckstud

What they've spent PALES in comparison to what Apple has spent over the las t 5 years to gain a measly 3-5%. What did you put in your coffee this morning?

I agree! All this stuff does is fuel all the Apple fanboy "elitism". This perpetuates the belief "Apple only sells and has the top of the line computer market and are not interested in the mainstream PC buyers". Yeah and thats why they changed to Intel chips.....
I love Apple products and will continue to buy them but not going to drink the "Koolaid". Or think I am somehow better than everyone else because I buy Apple and they have the top "mindshare" or some other buzz word.....
relax people......

[joelsalt]

Originally Posted by teckstud

I meant TV advertising.

cite your sources

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1075...ad-budget-wars

[diamondgeeza]

I doubt this a lot, Windows 7 can't possibly be as bad as vista. I doubt Microsoft could shoot themselves in the foot again. In a way I am hoping it is a big improvement, I have to use windows XP at work and it is antiquated to say the least. At the same time I don't see big institutes such as mine switching in a hurry. What for? May as well switch to Mac OS X or linux.

[AjitMD]

This is another pump by an analyst fan of Apple. If new versions of Windows have boosted Apple sales, it may be because of various reasons. Some of the Windows upgrades are scary like Vista and render the computer useless and disappointed users may go straight to Apple.

However, all the reviews of Windows 7 show that it works quite well and there are advantages to having Windows especially in the enterprise market and for people who have Windows systems at work. That is a huge upgrade market for the software as well as new Wintel PCs.

[Gwydion]

Originally Posted by Quadra 610

The best computers in the industry - as in, the ones people with $$ are buying, aren't Windows PCs. Big problem.

Perharps notebooks, not desktop computers.

[geekdad]

Originally Posted by al_bundy

no they didn't since apple only sells either computers with laptop parts or server parts for the mac pro. not even the build it yourself people care about paying for something like a Mac Pro which is a niche product.

and for the rest Dell and HP sell desktop computers with desktop CPU's and parts which are more powerful than the laptop parts apple sells. for most people there is no need to spend $1000 for a computer because you can get more performance for less. and since iphones and ipods work just fine on Windows, there is no need for a Mac

Mr Bundy.......my thoughtts exactly! Very nice post.

[iReality85]

Originally Posted by teckstud

A far bigger problem is that Apple can't even penetrate the corporate martket- which in reality is the biggest "premium" market anyway.

To be fair, Apple chooses not to participate in the corporate market to the vast degree that Microsoft does. Businesses that strictly use Macs do so on their own volition. That said, I agree with what was said previously, it's the value of that 3-5% market increase that really matters. Apple's customers just spend more money, plain and simple, and with that comes nice revenue. Unfortunately, the premium prices are what is keeping Apple's market share from increasing much beyond where its been, because the percentage of those who can afford to blow $1000+ on computing solutions is only so big.

[teckstud]

Originally Posted by Quadra 610

Money well spent. The Premium market is the most coveted. Once you've lost that, it's all about fighting like mad for the bottom end. An embarrssing position for MS, to say the least. And a very sore point for Ballmer. Nearly every time he makes public comments it's always about Apple and how MS "has more work to do", "rounding errors", etc.

If your brand isn't the Gold Standard of its industry, it'll be in a constant deficit in terms of image, desriability, and brand loyalty.

The best computers in the industry - as in, the ones people with $$ are buying, aren't Windows PCs. Big problem.

Right and that's why Corporate America and The US Government still uses Windows computers- Get Real.

[Quadra 610]

Originally Posted by geekdad

I agree! All this stuff does is fuel all the Apple fanboy "elitism". This perpetuates the belief "Apple only sells and has the top of the line computer market and are not interested in the mainstream PC buyers". Yeah and thats why they changed to Intel chips.....
I love Apple products and will continue to buy them but not going to drink the "Koolaid". Or think I am somehow better than everyone else because I buy Apple and they have the top "mindshare" or some other buzz word.....
relax people......

It helps to know your Intel-Apple history.

And if Apple were going after the bottom end, you wouldn't see premium prices. As they've said, they aren't interested in the mid or bottom-end. This is done deliberately and is absolutely true.

And if product satisfaction is somehow confused with elitism, then there's really nothing that can be done about it. Oh well.

Don't underestimate mindhsare. It's yet another factor in the equation of success. And if you've got plenty of it at the Premium end, you're in a position to dictate the direction of the market, bar none.