Apple expected to report record sales of 2.8 million Macs

[AppleInsider]

Apple is due to report its quarterly earnings on Monday, and the Mac maker is predicted to exceed Wall Street expectations with blockbuster Mac sales, according to two research notes released Thursday.

Apple's previous best came a year ago, when it sold 2.6 million Macs during the September quarter. But analysts believe that the company will exceed that mark when it reports its earnings. The call is scheduled for Oct. 19 at 2 p.m. pacific time (5 p.m. eastern) Both Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray and Mike Abramsky with RBC Capital Markets believe a strong fourth quarter will help to propel AAPL stock over the $200 milestone within the next 12 months.

Piper Jaffray

Munster, senior research analyst with Piper Jaffray, raised his estimates on Mac and iPhone sales. He believes the company will report sales of 2.8 million Macs, and 7.5 million iPhones.

Recent NPD estimates predicted Mac sales increased 7 percent year-over-year for the first two months of the September quarter. Munster said that is above Wall Street consensus of 5 percent.

Piper Jaffray's checks of iPhone 3GS supply have found that demand has made it hard for Apple to keep the device in stock globally. Overseas, wireless carrier 3 Italia has indicated that it is selling 20,000 iPhones per month, but could sell twice that if it had the supply.

"While supply constraint is an issue near-term," Munster said, "we see it as a long term positive, as worldwide demand appears to be very strong for the iPhone 3GS."

Munster believes Apple will report earnings per share of $1.37 and revenue of $9.1 billion.

For the coming quarter, Apple traditionally gives investors conservative guidance, with an average of 4 percent below Wall Street expectations for revenue. Munster believes that pattern will continue when Apple reports next week. The firm has maintained its overweight rating and price target of $235.



RBC Capital Markets

Analyst Abramsky predicted Mac sales to go even higher, with 2.9 million units shipped during the quarter. That would amount to a 10 percent year-over-year increase creating $3.5 billion in revenue. Proprietary data obtained through an RBC IQ/ChangeWave survey suggests 2 million of those units sold will be portable machines.

Mac sales are predicted to be particularly strong thanks to back to school sales. The recent survey of 3,100 respondents in early September found that 25 percent of those who purchased a PC in the last 90 days went with a Mac laptop.

Munster and Abramsky both agree on sales of 7.5 million iPhones for the September quarter. Abramsky believes that 5 million of those sold will be the high-end iPhone 3GS, and 2 million will be the $99 iPhone 3G.

"Though iPhone $99 3G sales have been slow in North America, where consumers have opted for the 3GS," Abramsky said, "we believe Apple is seeing healthy international (non-NA) traction of $99 iPhone in regions such as Europe, Latin America, and Asia, where consumers are more sensitive to handset pricing."

The RBC report also predicted that the iPod market will continue to shrink, as it is cannibalized by the iPhone and smartphones. Apple is forecast to have sold 9.9 million iPods for the quarter.

"Healthy upgrades" to Snow Leopard are also predicted to increase software revenue to $626 million, an increase 19 percent from last quarter. Abramsky believes 5 million copies of Snow Leopard were purchased during its launch window.

Abramsky also predicted that the new accounting rule change from the Financial Accounting Standards Board will boost first-quarter guidance on earnings per share 50 percent. Under the new rules, Apple is able to report all of its iPhone earnings up front, rather than spreading it out over the term of the contract for the device.

RBC Capital Markets has reiterated its outperform rating, and $250 price target for AAPL stock.

[ View this article at AppleInsider.com ]

[fmaxwell]

Originally Posted by AppleInsider

the Mac maker is expected to exceed Wall Street expectations

So Wall Street expects that Apple will make more than they expect them to?

[Quadra 610]

Seems beating expectations is business as usual for Apple. Good stuff.

[jasonfj]

but then Steve will break a fingernail and the stock will tank.

[msantti]

Interesting that numbers are being release on a Monday. Usually happens on a Wed.

NEW HARDWARE ON OCT. 20 CONFIRMED!! (Its a Tuesday).

[teckstud]

Originally Posted by msantti

Interesting that numbers are being release on a Monday. Usually happens on a Wed.

NEW HARDWARE ON OCT. 20 CONFIRMED!! (Its a Tuesday).

Great- that means a thread soon.

[Chintan100]

"we believe Apple is seeing healthy international (non-NA) traction of $9 iPhone in regions such as Europe, Latin America, and Asia, where consumers are more sensitive to handset pricing."


Damn! I want that $9 iPhone!! Doesnt seem to be available in India though... :P

[teckstud]

Think of how much higher those figures would be if they had offered matte on the iMac. I know I would have bought one. But now I will get the new industrial model, yet to be released, which more than likely will have that option.

[Ireland]

Originally Posted by fmaxwell

So Wall Street expects that Apple will make more than they expect them to?

No, The Street expects them to make more money than they feel they will

[Shaun, UK]

Originally Posted by msantti

Interesting that numbers are being release on a Monday. Usually happens on a Wed.

NEW HARDWARE ON OCT. 20 CONFIRMED!! (Its a Tuesday).

It's all gone quiet on updated iMac and Mac Mini models. What's happened to all the rumours?

[MacTel]

Oh, if were only 3 million that would send a good message to Microsoft.

Windows 7 is only going to make more people want to dual boot on a Mac. If the new Macs are truly coming out soon and they are a bit cheaper then that will only make all the more sales.

[MacTel]

Originally Posted by teckstud

Think of how much higher those figures would be if they had offered matte on the iMac. I know I would have bought one. But now I will get the new industrial model, yet to be released, which more than likely will have that option.

Get a Mac Mini and a LCD/LED with a matte finish. Yeah, many were disappointed about that, but they got over it somehow.

[aaarrrgggh]

Originally Posted by teckstud

Think of how much higher those figures would be if they had offered matte on the iMac. I know I would have bought one. But now I will get the new industrial model, yet to be released, which more than likely will have that option.

I'm going to side with you on this one... after looking at people on my last flight with the glossy screens, I really don't understand how people manage. My wife's isn't too bad since in its normal use there aren't any glare sources... but places I would put a computer would make the glossy screen useless.

I know you can focus beyond the reflections, but why should you have to. Looks like the 17" Core Duo (and 2G iPhone now that the 3GS is getting harder to jailbreak) will have to hold in there a little longer!

[teckstud]

Originally Posted by MacTel

Get a Mac Mini and a LCD/LED with a matte finish. Yeah, many were disappointed about that, but they got over it somehow.

If its a quad core Mini maybe.

[newbee]

Originally Posted by MacTel

Get a Mac Mini and a LCD/LED with a matte finish. Yeah, many were disappointed about that, but they got over it somehow.

If TeckDud did that, he wouldn't have anything to bitch about. Oh right, I forgot, he doesn't want to solve "obstacles in his way" ... he just wants to bitch and complain..what a sad life.

[newbee]

Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh

I'm going to side with you on this one... after looking at people on my last flight with the glossy screens, I really don't understand how people manage.

But yet, somehow they do ...hmmmmm!

[Fast Fred 1]

Originally Posted by teckstud

Think of how much higher those figures would be if they had offered matte on the iMac. I know I would have bought one. But now I will get the new industrial model, yet to be released, which more than likely will have that option.

Oh stop....bye a can of matt spray.

[solipsism]

Sweet! I predicted 2.8M just yesterday.

Originally Posted by newbee

If TeckDud did that, he wouldn't have anything to bitch about. Oh right, I forgot, he doesn't want to solve "obstacles in his way" ... he just wants to bitch and complain..what a sad life.

Were you here when the 17” MBP matte option trial moved into the 15” MBP getting that same option and Teckstud, who had been saying that glossy sucked and that Apple should switch to matte if they know what is good for them” wanted everyone to thank him as if he was responsible? Good times!

[teckstud]

Originally Posted by solipsism

Sweet! I predicted 2.8M just yesterday.




Were you here when the 17” MBP matte option trial moved into the 15” MBP getting that same option and Teckstud, who had been saying that glossy sucked and that Apple should switch to matte if they know what is good for them” wanted everyone to thank him as if he was responsible?

I said that as a joke if I did - good try. Was he here for 2 years when you constantly defended AT&T, said matte and firewire were things of the past? I've been more right on here than you ever have been. Face facts.

[solipsism]

Originally Posted by teckstud

I said that as a joke if I did - good try. Was he here for 2 years when you constantly defended AT&T, said matte and firewire were things of the past? I've been more right on here than you ever have been. Face facts.

I predicted the return of matte in the 15” if the 17” trial worked. Bingo! Predicted that FireWire was not dead to Apple, just FW400. Bingo! Predicted that the 13” MB was getting a non-TN display. Bingo! Predicted that FW800 would come to the MacBook if they made the battery non-user-removable to save on port-side space as there was no room before. I was wrong, because they renamed it a MacBook Pro, not a MacBook.

PS: Bitching for years about shit that will eventually happen does not make you Nostradamus. It jsut makes you a cycnical little boy.

[teckstud]

Originally Posted by solipsism

I predicted the return of matte in the 15” if the 17” trial worked. Bingo! Predicted that FireWire was not dead to Apple, just FW400. Bingo! Predicted that the 13” MB was getting a non-TN display. Bingo! Predicted that FW800 would come to the MacBook if they made the battery non-user-removable to save on port-side space as there was no room before. I was wrong, because they renamed it a MacBook Pro, not a MacBook.

PS: Bitching for years about shit that will eventually happen does not make you Nostradamus. It jsut makes you a cycnical little boy.

Wrong and now your lying. Long before the 17" got matte you said it wasn't needed in Apple's business model to provide both- BINGO was your NAME-O.

[johnnyapple]

Desktop 925,000 $1.05 billion
Portable 1,900,000 $2.45 billion
Total CPU 2,725,000 $3.5 billion

iPod 10,750,000 $1.575 billion
Other music $1.1 billion

iPhone 8,000,000 $2.1 billion

Peripherals $350 million
Software $700 million

Total revenue $9.325 billion
Earnings $1.41 billion
EPS $1.54