Apple's iPhone 3GS blunts Palm Pre impact, challenges BlackBerry

[AppleInsider]

A new consumer survey shows smartphone ownership is still growing rapidly, future demand is strong, and that Apple's iPhone 3GS has made a big impact since its launch, overshadowing the Palm Pre and approaching RIM's BlackBerry.

The survey of 4,255 users was conduced by ChangeWave Research last month to provide a look at how the launch of the iPhone 3GS and Palm Pre have affected the US smartphone market.

Smartphone ownership among those surveyed is now up to 39%, two points higher than the previous quarter and nearly double the level of just two years ago.



Future demand is also healthy, with 11.6% saying they plan to buy a new smartphone in the next 90s days. That's down 3 points from June when users were anticipating the launch of the iPhone 3GS and Palm Pre, but ChangeWave says its "still one of the highest percentages ever recorded" in the company's regular surveys.

In terms of current market share, RIM's BlackBerry phones remain in the lead with 40% ownership, but that's off a point from the previous quarter and is the lowest level for RIM in the last two years.

Apple gained 5 points this quarter to reach 30% ownership; ChangeWave observed "for the first time it has also placed them within striking distance of the number one spot in the consumer market."

ChangeWave also notes that "36% of those who plan to purchase a smart phone in the next 90 days say they'll get an iPhone," and that Apple's iPhone satisfaction ranking (74%) is vastly ahead those users assigned to makers of other smartphones, which ranged from Sony Ericsson at 17% to RIM at 43%.

Palm's position remains unchanged at 7%, but the company notes that "this is the first survey in nearly two years where their share hasn’t fallen – and that’s a clearly encouraging sign." Just three years ago, Palm had the top spot in smartphones with 36%.



Additional details published by ChangeWave tracking future smartphone demand and satisfaction ratings can be found in the research group's full report.

[ View this article at AppleInsider.com ]

[teckstud]

When does the Droid arrive?

[digitalclips]

I simply don't see this abating. The uptake of the iPhone is quite amazing.

[teckstud]

Originally Posted by digitalclips

I simply don't see this abating. The uptake of the iPhone is quite amazing.

Well that's because the iPhone is the BEST!

[extremeskater]

Originally Posted by digitalclips

I simply don't see this abating. The uptake of the iPhone is quite amazing.

Not sure this is really news. Its like AI saying the sun rises in the east and sets in the west. Like everyone on earth doesn't know the Blackberry and iPhone bounce back and forth between 1 and 2.

[zindako]

This should be an interesting thought by the end of 2010.

[MissionGrey]

If/When the iPhone becomes multi-carrier, everything will change again, very quickly too.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by teckstud

When does the Droid arrive?

Too late to do them any good.

[NasserAE]

Palm made a mistake with the Pre pricing and they are making the same mistake with the Pixie.

[machei]

At the risk of being hung a heretic, I'm the biggest Apple fanboy in my circle of friends and family, and when I leave blackberry next month, I'm going to Android. When iPhone first came out it blew me away, but honestly, it hasn't changed in years save for speed, nor will it let you change it without rooting the phone. I want more variety if I'm stuck in a contract.

From an OS perspective, I think you'll be prying my MBP from my cold dead hands, but from a smartphone one, the future looks a lot like Android to me.

[solipsism]

Originally Posted by extremeskater

Not sure this is really news. Its like AI saying the sun rises in the east and sets in the west. Like everyone on earth doesn't know the Blackberry and iPhone bounce back and forth between 1 and 2.

I hadn’t realized that Palm was top dog only 3 years ago, that Apple was so close to RiM, and that RiM’s marketshare growth had stagnated.

Originally Posted by zindako

This should be an interesting thought by the end of 2010.

It looks like RiM has less than 9 months before Apple’s offering overtakes it. I hope Android and others can offer something more compelling than we’ve seen to keep Apple on its toes.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by extremeskater

Not sure this is really news. Its like AI saying the sun rises in the east and sets in the west. Like everyone on earth doesn't know the Blackberry and iPhone bounce back and forth between 1 and 2.

No, RIM has been ahead all the time. There was one quarter where the iPhone outsold them by a small bit, but that didn't change the overall numbers. This is ownership, not quarter to quarter sales.

But what's really interesting here is the other 22% not shown in the charts.

Where is everyone else? We know that Nokia is at about 3%, and has lost percentage. Sony Ericsson? Not too many.

But it seems as though the other big loser other than Palm is the large number of Win Mobile phones, sold mostly by HTC (they have 80% of all Win Mobile sales). I would like to seen those numbers as well.

[Psych_guy]

Originally Posted by machei

At the risk of being hung a heretic, I'm the biggest Apple fanboy in my circle of friends and family, and when I leave blackberry next month, I'm going to Android. When iPhone first came out it blew me away, but honestly, it hasn't changed in years save for speed, nor will it let you change it without rooting the phone. I want more variety if I'm stuck in a contract.

From an OS perspective, I think you'll be prying my MBP from my cold dead hands, but from a smartphone one, the future looks a lot like Android to me.

Have fun! 30 million of us are pretty happy with the iPhone.

[digitalclips]

Originally Posted by extremeskater

Not sure this is really news. Its like AI saying the sun rises in the east and sets in the west. Like everyone on earth doesn't know the Blackberry and iPhone bounce back and forth between 1 and 2.

But that's the point, I don't think they will bounce back and forth for long if they even are in reality. IMHO, over time the iPhone will surge far ahead. Kind of like iTunes slowly crept up to the #1 sales outlet for music.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by machei

At the risk of being hung a heretic, I'm the biggest Apple fanboy in my circle of friends and family, and when I leave blackberry next month, I'm going to Android. When iPhone first came out it blew me away, but honestly, it hasn't changed in years save for speed, nor will it let you change it without rooting the phone. I want more variety if I'm stuck in a contract.

From an OS perspective, I think you'll be prying my MBP from my cold dead hands, but from a smartphone one, the future looks a lot like Android to me.

So far at least, Android phones don't give you what you think they do. Read some articles about it. You are stuck with Google's apps. You are stuck with them as a repository for all of your personal information, etc. Not all Android phones support all the features. Not all software works well on all the phones. Developers have about as many complaints about Google as developers have about Apple.

[digitalclips]

Originally Posted by machei

At the risk of being hung a heretic, I'm the biggest Apple fanboy in my circle of friends and family, and when I leave blackberry next month, I'm going to Android. When iPhone first came out it blew me away, but honestly, it hasn't changed in years save for speed, nor will it let you change it without rooting the phone. I want more variety if I'm stuck in a contract.

From an OS perspective, I think you'll be prying my MBP from my cold dead hands, but from a smartphone one, the future looks a lot like Android to me.

To paraphrase Arnie ... "You'll be back!"

[monstrosity]

Originally Posted by machei

At the risk of being hung a heretic, I'm the biggest Apple fanboy in my circle of friends and family, and when I leave blackberry next month, I'm going to Android. When iPhone first came out it blew me away, but honestly, it hasn't changed in years save for speed, nor will it let you change it without rooting the phone. I want more variety if I'm stuck in a contract.

From an OS perspective, I think you'll be prying my MBP from my cold dead hands, but from a smartphone one, the future looks a lot like Android to me.

Good luck with that!
Out of curiosity, what is it that the iphone does not, that draws you to purchase an inferior product with limited software?

[Robodude]

Originally Posted by machei

At the risk of being hung a heretic, I'm the biggest Apple fanboy in my circle of friends and family, and when I leave blackberry next month, I'm going to Android. When iPhone first came out it blew me away, but honestly, it hasn't changed in years save for speed, nor will it let you change it without rooting the phone. I want more variety if I'm stuck in a contract.

From an OS perspective, I think you'll be prying my MBP from my cold dead hands, but from a smartphone one, the future looks a lot like Android to me.

Android does look pretty nice, and 2.0 came out today, EDIT - tomorrow. I'd consider one if the hardware was better, but the iPhone bests it due to it's integration with my Mac - I'm not quite ready to move all my stuff to the cloud... yet. There is plenty of good competition, but 4.0 will be round the corner when my contract expires so I'll just wait it out.

I played with a Palm at the O2 store (UK) and it's just too slow... and I use an iPhone 3G

[anonymouse]

Originally Posted by teckstud

Well that's because the iPhone is the BEST!

Wow, I may have to add a row to teckstud_knowledge.

[extremeskater]

Originally Posted by digitalclips

But that's the point, I don't think they will bounce back and forth for long if they even are in reality. IMHO, over time the iPhone will surge far ahead. Kind of like iTunes slowly crept up to the #1 sales outlet for music.

I'm not sure the iphone will ever surge ahead of the Blackberry because so many users are unhappy with ATT. In alot of cases people love the iPhone and put up with ATT. ATT service plan for the iPhone is also fairly expensive and they totally rip you off on txt messaging. Then again to get the blackberry thats an extra 30.00 monthly on top of the plan you select from Verizon.

The Pre is a really good phone the problem is its with Sprint.

[Quadra 610]

iPhone overtaking RIM?

The question is not "if", but "when."

[machei]

Originally Posted by monstrosity

Good luck with that!
Out of curiosity, what is it that the iphone does not, that draws you to purchase an inferior product with limited software?

If that's a serious question, then the answer is that it seems to fit what I do day in and day out better. Better integration of the things that I do most (contacts with Flickr, Facebook) and I'm using google apps for the most part already.

As much as I've tried mobileme (still have an account) I find that I'm naturally pulled toward google every single day. It works on all machines, has my reader, consolidates my email, etc. *shrug*

Aside from that, it seems to me that having an open framework for development will eventually trump the app store given the watching eye over at apple. I'm certainly not saying apple doesn't innovate. They sure do. The problem is that they innovate against their own ideas of what people want. I don't really want a static interface.

[extremeskater]

Originally Posted by solipsism

I hadn’t realized that Palm was top dog only 3 years ago, that Apple was so close to RiM, and that RiM’s marketshare growth had stagnated.



It looks like RiM has less than 9 months before Apple’s offering overtakes it. I hope Android and others can offer something more compelling than we’ve seen to keep Apple on its toes.

I'm not so sure thats true about RIMs growth stagnating. They still hold 4 of the top 6 smartphones. I think the simple fact the Pre is on Sprint is what kills it.

In reality all three products are good smartphone they just all offer something different. The killer for me with the iPhone is the non removeable battery.

[ghostface147]

Just imagine if the iPhone was on sale for all 4 major carriers.......

[extremeskater]

Originally Posted by Quadra 610

iPhone overtaking RIM?

The question is not "if", but "when."

Yeah get back to use when that actually happens instead of always trying to predict the future.

[NasserAE]

Originally Posted by extremeskater

In reality all three products are good smartphone they just all offer something different. The killer for me with the iPhone is the non removeable battery.

Kingston and others offer small battery packs the will recharge your iPhone more than once and some cost less than internal batteries.

[Roos24]

Originally Posted by extremeskater

... The killer for me with the iPhone is the non removeable battery.

What is it that some people have with a removable battery? Create more toxic landfills?
The non-removable battery in my sons's 1st gen iPhone holds its power as on day 1. I bought a little chargeable battery from APC, that I can simply hook up to the iPhone*) and it will recharge it twice.

Believe me, Apple has good reason to have a non-removable battery. If it would have been better to make it differently, they would have done it.

*) While talking with someone, without having to hang up, pry the back open, find the spare battery, insert it -all this in a heavy downpour or freezing weather- and dial again!

[addabox]

Originally Posted by machei

At the risk of being hung a heretic, I'm the biggest Apple fanboy in my circle of friends and family, and when I leave blackberry next month, I'm going to Android. When iPhone first came out it blew me away, but honestly, it hasn't changed in years save for speed, nor will it let you change it without rooting the phone. I want more variety if I'm stuck in a contract.

From an OS perspective, I think you'll be prying my MBP from my cold dead hands, but from a smartphone one, the future looks a lot like Android to me.

I've never quite gotten the "variety" thing, or the caveat that the iPhone has somehow been static. Apple has added a ton of functionality to the original iPhone, starting with the App Store itself, and added some very nice hardware upgrades with the 3Gs.

More generally, , it seems to me that the relentless hunt for novelty doesn't have any place in the world of operating systems and useful computing devices. People talk about the iPhone OS being "stale", but why would I go looking for new eye candy if my handset does what I want in an easy to use and satisfying fashion?

Sure, I appreciate new functionality, but as I say that's something that Apple has delivered, a great deal of it backwardly compatible to the first model.

At any rate, I thnk that the ability to muck about with your phone is something that appeals to the same minority which keeps thinking Linux is going to rule any day now. Most people appreciate a device that works out of the box, with the opportunities to break something kept to a minimum.

[Quadra 610]

Originally Posted by extremeskater

Yeah get back to use when that actually happens instead of always trying to predict the future.

You've been making predictions about operating systems all week.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by extremeskater

I'm not so sure thats true about RIMs growth stagnating. They still hold 4 of the top 6 smartphones. I think the simple fact the Pre is on Sprint is what kills it.

In reality all three products are good smartphone they just all offer something different. The killer for me with the iPhone is the non removeable battery.

Sprint is just one problem. Anyone stop to think that people just don't like the Pre?

Palms' problems, as we can see, started long before the Pre came out only on Sprints network. The sales of the Pre have been so dismal, that Palm is in danger of going out of business, or being bought up once its too high stock price drops to reflect Palms sales. The price was driven up by all the hype.

RIM still has good growth, but Apple's growth has a much higher curve to it.

[sflocal]

Originally Posted by addabox

I've never quite gotten the "variety" thing, or the caveat that the iPhone has somehow been static. Apple has added a ton of functionality to the original iPhone, starting with the App Store itself, and added some very nice hardware upgrades with the 3Gs.

More generally, , it seems to me that the relentless hunt for novelty doesn't have any place in the world of operating systems and useful computing devices. People talk about the iPhone OS being "stale", but why would I go looking for new eye candy if my handset does what I want in an easy to use and satisfying fashion?

Sure, I appreciate new functionality, but as I say that's something that Apple has delivered, a great deal of it backwardly compatible to the first model.

At any rate, I thnk that the ability to muck about with your phone is something that appeals to the same minority which keeps thinking Linux is going to rule any day now. Most people appreciate a device that works out of the box, with the opportunities to break something kept to a minimum.

It comes down to one group that considers their phone a tool to be used and improve one's life. The other group is populated by ADHD kids that have to have their 5-minute eye-candy/variety fix only to be bored and complain that the OS is "stale" after a month. They can never be satisfied regardless of how cutting edge something is. Guess which group most of the whiners on this thread belong to.

[extremeskater]

Originally Posted by Quadra 610

You've been making predictions about operating systems all week.

I'm afraid thats not true. I try not to make predications but work with actual data. You like to make predications about future market cap that hasn't happened or products overtaking others which also hasn't happened.

Stock is down about 4% in two days did you predict that? I'm sure with the hardware releases you expected it to be at 500 a share by now.

[Robodude]

Originally Posted by addabox

I've never quite gotten the "variety" thing, or the caveat that the iPhone has somehow been static. Apple has added a ton of functionality to the original iPhone, starting with the App Store itself, and added some very nice hardware upgrades with the 3Gs.

Actually I agreed with him on that point. The iPhone will only do what Apple wants it to do, similar to how Apple doesn't want the 27" iMac to be used with HDMI (...yet). Fortunately in the case of the iPhone, it does everything I need. I'd prefer "state saving" as opposed to multi tasking (since the battery life on the iPhone isn't great as it is), but there should multi tasking for apps like Spotify, Classic FM and Pandora so I don't only have to listen to my iTunes library while doing other stuff.

If Apple incorporate the battery advancements they've applied to their Macbooks then next July would be interesting to say the least.

sflocal - it's been 2 years, not 5 minutes. Although the iPhone's layout is iconic (pun intended) and I see no reason to change it.

[christopher126]

I think I have this correct...last quarter more people bought an iPhone from ATT than all the phones sold combined by Verizon. The iPhone singlehandedly outsold Verizon's entire product line.

The writing is on the wall for RIM!

[melgross]

Originally Posted by extremeskater

I'm afraid thats not true. I try not to make predications but work with actual data. You like to make predications about future market cap that hasn't happened or products overtaking others which also hasn't happened.

Stock is down about 4% in two days did you predict that? I'm sure with the hardware releases you expected it to be at 500 a share by now.

Several reasons why the stock is down. The NASDAQ has been down several days running, and the Galleon Hedge Fund was liquidated. They had a large position in Apple, and that's being attributed to as a reason for the big drop today.

Lastly, some people bought the stock with the rumor that newer MBPs were coming out soon, which turned out to be wrong.

You can't use a few dollar uptick or downturn as an indicator of anything.

[solipsism]

Originally Posted by extremeskater

I'm not so sure thats true about RIMs growth stagnating. They still hold 4 of the top 6 smartphones. I think the simple fact the Pre is on Sprint is what kills it.

I know RiM is selling more units, but the market is growing fast. I specifically states marketshare growth, which the chart backs up. In fact it shows a slight decrease QoQ. Unfortunately for RiM the unit sales aren't equating to nearly the same profits as it did prior to the iPhone's emergence.

[MacTel]

I'd like to see the Pre and Pixi do well for Palm. I love Apple but I'm not tied to them lock-in-step. (i.e. I own a Blackberry, Wii, and subscribe to Netflix, but have iPods and a Macbook).

[melgross]

Originally Posted by MacTel

I'd like to see the Pre and Pixi do well for Palm. I love Apple but I'm not tied to them lock-in-step. (i.e. I own a Blackberry, Wii, and subscribe to Netflix, but have iPods and a Macbook).

Most of us would like to see Palm do ok, but it doesn't look to be happening.

[Rot'nApple]

Originally Posted by digitalclips

I simply don't see this abating. The uptake of the iPhone is quite amazing.

Amazing it is and in that famous interview Steve Ballmer when asked about the iPhone made fun of it because it didn't have a keyboard and how MS was selling millions of phones to iPhone's zero (remember original iPhone was announced in Jan (due to FCC filing requests) but not being released until June and Ballmer said regarding the iPhone's selling success to come back in six months.

I wonder if anybody did a follow-up in six months?

You can't go back to ask how things are with iPhone and WinMo now, because we all know...

[Rot'nApple]

Originally Posted by extremeskater

I think the simple fact the Pre is on Sprint is what kills it.

If it was a knock down, drag out killer of a ground breaking product, then the PRE wouldn't be "killed" just because it is on Sprint's network.

The reason why there would be no lines around the block on the product's introductory day, explains why you see Palm current standing now because there is no Applesque enthusiasm! And to say when it goes on sale at Verizon and ATT etc. it will just face competition from Android and The Droid and other 'me too' wannabe iPhones...