iPod adoption rate faster than Sony Walkman

[AppleInsider]

Based on one Wall Street analyst's findings, the popularity of Apple's iPod is exceeding that of Sony's Walkman during the 80's and 90's.

In a 10 page research note released to clients this morning, Merrill Lynch analyst, Steve Milunovich, once again raised his estimates for Apple's December quarter and 2005 fiscal year by $0.02 and $0.07, respectively. Milunovich also raised Apple's 12-month price objective to $78.

Echoing the sentiments of Apple insiders, Milunovich conceded that Apple will likely ship 4 million iPods during the current quarter, up from his previous estimates of 2.7 and 3.5 million units. He also backs reports of a forthcoming flash-based iPod, citing a 'possible' introduction in January at the Macworld Expo in San Francisco.

"The flash MP3 market is 5X the size of the HDD market in units and about 2X in revenue. It is also fragmented with the leader, Samsung, at only an 8% share," the report says. "Based on availability of a flash iPod sometime in the first quarter, we are raising our F2005 estimate from 10.7 million units to 12.9 million."

But the most interesting segment of Milunovich's report deals with the iPod adoption rate as compared to the early adoption rate of Sony's Walkman. "iPods are being adopted faster than Sony Walkmans were back in the early 1980s," the report claims. A graph accompanying the report reveals that after nearly 2.5 years, iPod shipments are approximately 1 million units ahead of the Walkmen's pace after being on the market for the same period of time.

In a successive Merrill Lynch report released Monday afternoon, Milunovich fires off what appears to be unsubstantiated rumors of an 200GB Apple entertainment server,"which would compete with multimedia PCs and possibly game consoles to manage family entertainment."

During the 80s-90s, Sony sold over 300 million Walkmans.

[ View this article at AppleInsider.com ]

[mdriftmeyer]

And still another stock analyst saving face and playing catch up.

Note his remarks one year ago, if you can find them.

[macslut]

"Milunovich fires off what appears to be unsubstantiated rumors of an 200GB Apple entertainment server,'which would compete with multimedia PCs and possibly game consoles to manage family entertainment.'"

What rumor? I have a 1TB Apple entertainment server. It's a G4 loaded up with pictures, movies, and music. I use the $150 eyeHome by El Gato to play these from my G4 in my office to to the home entertainment system in my bedroom.

[Kickaha]

You may want to read this for what he was most likely hinting towards. Oh, and read the *entire* thread before forming an opinion.

[Mark- Card Carrying FanaticRealist]

Originally posted by AppleInsider
…"Based on availability of a flash iPod sometime in the first quarter, we are raising our F2005 estimate from 10.7 million units to 12.9 million."…

This is a joke surely!

If Apple moves 3.45 million units this quarter, and then maintains sales growth through F2005, HD iPod sales will look something like: -

3.45 Q1/05
3.75 Q2/05
4.50 Q3/05
5.25 Q4/05

Which comes to around 16.95 million units, or around 1.4 million/units month.

Flash-based iPods - bring in 512MB, 1GB and 2GB capacities - could easily increase that by a factor of two, given increased affordability and an entry point of around $125, with 1GB and 2GB units priced at around $149 and $179 respectively.

Bring down the 4GB mini to $199, and introduce a 6GB at $249 and Apple will own every layer of the market from $125 through $499.

So a conservative estimate would predict Apple shipping between 25-30 million units in F2005.

[T'hain Esh Kelch]

Originally posted by Mark- Card Carrying FanaticRealist
This is a joke surely!

If Apple moves 3.45 million units this quarter, and then maintains sales growth through F2005, HD iPod sales will look something like: -

3.45 Q1/05
3.75 Q2/05
4.50 Q3/05
5.25 Q4/05

Which comes to around 16.95 million units, or around 1.4 million/units month.

Flash-based iPods - bring in 512MB, 1GB and 2GB capacities - could easily increase that by a factor of two, given increased affordability and an entry point of around $125, with 1GB and 2GB units priced at around $149 and $179 respectively.

Bring down the 4GB mini to $199, and introduce a 6GB at $249 and Apple will own every layer of the market from $125 through $499.

So a conservative estimate would predict Apple shipping between 25-30 million units in F2005.

And do you know what this means for my Apple stock?

[scotty321]

The problem comparing the iPod to the Walkman is that the Walkman was an "open format" -- it played cassette tapes manufactured by ANYBODY and it had an FM Radio built into it. The iPod will only play protected songs bought from Apple's own store... certainly Apple can't expect all the other companies to just roll over & play dead to Apple. No, the other companies are going to bind together and fight Apple on this. Apple will lose again by keeping its format proprietary. Apple is making a big mistake yet again, just like they did with the Mac OS back in the 80's. And you have nobody to blame except for Steve Jobs.

[yikes600]

Originally posted by scotty321
The problem comparing the iPod to the Walkman is that the Walkman was an "open format" -- it played cassette tapes manufactured by ANYBODY and it had an FM Radio built into it. The iPod will only play protected songs bought from Apple's own store... certainly Apple can't expect all the other companies to just roll over & play dead to Apple. No, the other companies are going to bind together and fight Apple on this. Apple will lose again by keeping its format proprietary. Apple is making a big mistake yet again, just like they did with the Mac OS back in the 80's. And you have nobody to blame except for Steve Jobs.

For the record, Steve Jobe has said that if or when WMA becomes a major competing format then Apple will open the iPod up to it.

[mmmpie]

Originally posted by scotty321
The iPod will only play protected songs bought from Apple's own store... certainly Apple can't expect all the other companies to just roll over & play dead to Apple.

Guess all of that mp3 music I ripped was a waste of time and space then.

[Chris Cuilla]

Originally posted by scotty321
The problem comparing the iPod to the Walkman is that the Walkman was an "open format" -- it played cassette tapes manufactured by ANYBODY and it had an FM Radio built into it. The iPod will only play protected songs bought from Apple's own store... certainly Apple can't expect all the other companies to just roll over & play dead to Apple. No, the other companies are going to bind together and fight Apple on this. Apple will lose again by keeping its format proprietary. Apple is making a big mistake yet again, just like they did with the Mac OS back in the 80's. And you have nobody to blame except for Steve Jobs.

Big difference from then to now (Mac vs. iPod) is the market share. Right now the "standard" IS iTunes + iTMS + iPod + Proteced AAC.

The other issue is that in the Walkman days, there was already an established standard. In the digital music world, not yet (though Protected AAC is on the way to becoming it).

Finally, who's to say that Apple won't eventually open the platform up (through licensing)? Maybe the time isn't quite right.

[Telomar]

Originally posted by scotty321
The problem comparing the iPod to the Walkman is that the Walkman was an "open format" -- it played cassette tapes manufactured by ANYBODY and it had an FM Radio built into it. The iPod will only play protected songs bought from Apple's own store... certainly Apple can't expect all the other companies to just roll over & play dead to Apple. No, the other companies are going to bind together and fight Apple on this. Apple will lose again by keeping its format proprietary. Apple is making a big mistake yet again, just like they did with the Mac OS back in the 80's. And you have nobody to blame except for Steve Jobs.

I'm guessing you've never actually ripped a CD...

[tonton]

Originally posted by scotty321
The iPod will only play protected songs bought from Apple's own store...

Yeah, riiight!!!!

[12houripod]

Originally posted by scotty321
The problem comparing the iPod to the Walkman is that the Walkman was an "open format" -- it played cassette tapes manufactured by ANYBODY and it had an FM Radio built into it. The iPod will only play protected songs bought from Apple's own store...

i can't believe someone still thinks this

[Kickaha]

Are you kidding? I run into people like this all the time, that think the iPod a) can't play MP3s, b) can't work with Windows, c) will last only a few months and then be useless no matter what you do...

Face it, people are stupid and ill-informed until proven otherwise.

[sjk]

Originally posted by yikes600
For the record, Steve Jobe has said that if or when WMA becomes a major competing format then Apple will open the iPod up to it.

For the record, that's just your interpretation of what he actually said.

[yikes600]

Originally posted by sjk
For the record, that's just your interpretation of what he actually said.

Fair enough. Here's what was actually said in the Wall Street Journal interview:

Like [Microsoft Corp.'s] Windows Media Format. Why should I as a consumer have to have a limitation on my device because you have a religious war with [Microsoft Chairman] Bill Gates? Are you against consumer choice?
No. Right now we've got a choice to make ourselves, which is should we spend our energy enhancing the music store and enhancing the iPod in the format that has 70% of the business or should we take some of that energy and stop innovating and go back and try to play Windows Media, which has 30% or less of the market. And we've chosen right now to go with the 70% format. We really believe that we can innovate much more if we control that technology.

So what if they get to 50%?
Well, then let's talk again.

[sjk]

Originally posted by yikes600
So what if they get to 50%?
Well, then let's talk again.

Yep, that's the comment I'd remembered.