Analyst offers update on iPod nano delays

[AppleInsider]

Apple Computer continues to face transition issues with its next-generation iPod nano digital music player due to architectural changes and may not be ready introduce the device until October, according to one Wall Street analyst.

In a research note released to clients on Monday morning, American Technology Research analyst Shaw Wu maintained his stance that the new iPod nano -- which he has dubbed the "mini video iPod" -- will miss the Street's consensus view of a July or August introduction.

"We continue to believe that the new iPod nano (aka mini vPod) refreshes are facing transition issues due to an architecture move to an SoC vs. its present 3-chip solution," Wu wrote. "In terms of timing, we continue to believe calendar Q4 is most likely, specifically October and at the earliest, late Q3, meaning the second half of September."

The analyst has also picked up leads independent of AppleInsider, which suggest that Apple will revert back to metal enclosures with the next-generation nano.

"An interesting data point we have picked up on the new nanos is a new magnesium-based casing," he said. "We believe this new casing will improve scratch-resistance, durability, and help lower Apple's support and warranty costs."

Meanwhile, Wu speculates that Apple chief executive Steve Jobs is likely to focus his upcoming World Wide Developers Conference keynote exclusively on the Mac, refraining from any iPod related announcements.

Specifically, the analyst expects Jobs to announced that Apple's last two Mac product lines -- Pro desktops and servers -- will be making the move to Intel processors.

"In addition, we anticipate a preview on Mac OS X 10.5 Leopard, its next-generation operating system that will one up Microsoft Vista," he wrote. "With respect to Steve Jobs' track record and element of surprise, we are prepared to see something that no one anticipated."

Wu maintains a "Buy" rating on Apple shares with a price target of $75.

[ View this article at AppleInsider.com ]

[scotty321]

How can it be a delayed product if Apple never announced it? Analysts are STUPID and offer little value to society.

[Booga]

Originally posted by scotty321
How can it be a delayed product if Apple never announced it? Analysts are STUPID and offer little value to society.

"the new iPod nano ... will miss the Street's consensus view of a July or August introduction"

Investors invest based on their opinion of what will happen to the company over the next couple of quarters, regardless of what the company announces. The consensus view was July/August, which is presumably then what is factored into Apple's current share price. If the nano isn't released until Q4, the risk is higher that revenues won't be met short-term, and that competitors are more likely to "catch up".

It's all about target audience. The target audience for these analysts are not users or geeks, but investors.

[SpamSandwich]

Originally posted by Booga
It's all about target audience. The target audience for these analysts are not users or geeks, but investors.

As part of that target audience, I think they mostly do a lousy job. I get better information from AppleInsider.

[minderbinder]

Originally posted by AppleInsider
"We continue to believe that the new iPod nano (aka mini vPod)...

"Mini vPod"? Sheesh. And this guy expects to get taken seriously??

[crees!]

Originally posted by minderbinder
"Mini vPod"? Sheesh. And this guy expects to get taken seriously??

My thoughts exactly.

[Craigb6]

Originally posted by scotty321
How can it be a delayed product if Apple never announced it? Analysts are STUPID and offer little value to society.

That's a very good point. I think they mean that Apple have set an internal deadline (say July/August) and they are not going to reach it.

I think this magnesium case could be pretty cool, anything to make them scratch resistant.

[Cubert]

I anticipate a preview of Leopard, too, primarily because Apple has FREAKIN' said so!

See, now I'm an analyst, too. It's that easy.

[nofear1az]

I think this sounds exciting... even if there is a *delay* on something that hasn't been released yet. Anyway, I think the transition to using a magnesium or alum case is great. I missed the iPod mini's case when they stopped making 'em. Now, I'm glad to see it come back.

I wonder what they'll be doing for the 30/60 iPod w/video. I'm curious if they'll keep those polycarbonate or if they'll also change the case design to match it's little brother. Time will tell.

[josa92]

How can it be an expected surprise?
...

[fuyutsuki]

Originally posted by josa92
How can it be an expected surprise?

Well ... the arrival of the first Intel Macs back at MWSF in January were an expected surprise. We all knew it was quite likely, but Apple hadn't promised it and the actual models in question were still a surprise.

All Stainless iPod: collector's special!!

[AgNuke1707]

So Apple's stock has been falling over the past few weeks based on some dipshit analyst's predictions on a product that Apple hasn't even announced as existing? Absolutely astonishing ... it's as if the "analysts" expect Apple to follow THEIR upgrade cycle instead of Apple's wow. Amazing. If I were a stock holder, I'd be pissed right now at analysts driving the price of my stock down based on unsubstantiated claims. Remember how all the analysts predicted the awesome iPhone and the Mac Mini Media Center? Shit ... those were hits weren't they? They're speculating just as much as we are. Screw nuclear engineering, I need to be a technology and computer analyst...

[bergz]

Originally posted by AppleInsider
Mac OS X 10.5 Leopard will one up Microsoft Vista

It'll two up it at the very least.

--B

[OfficerDigby]

Originally posted by AgNuke1707
So Apple's stock has been falling over the past few weeks based on some dipshit analyst's predictions on a product that Apple hasn't even announced as existing? Absolutely astonishing ...

Not really it's just shows how much hot air there is around apple every now and again the ballon goes down.

Amazing. If I were a stock holder, I'd be pissed right now at analysts driving the price of my stock down based on unsubstantiated claims. Remember how all the analysts predicted the awesome iPhone and the Mac Mini Media Center? Shit ... those were hits weren't they?

Well those predictions did what they did to bring the stock up so...

They're speculating just as much as we are. Screw nuclear engineering, I need to be a technology and computer analyst...

Damn right substitute nuclear engineering for some other job not based on gossip.

These guys are really partially the equivalent of sports journalists or meda pundits - if the people like what they say/the interpretation fits the facts most of the time they will survive - simple as that.
Apple is still the same, just the people who need money on an investment by the next quater have left building!

As for the metal is the new cool - Apple is completely cyclical here. black - White - Aluminum and round we go again. "this seasons iPods are gong to in chique metallic, so fans adjust your clothing accordingly!"

[wilco]

Originally posted by Cubert
I anticipate a preview of Leopard, too, primarily because Apple has FREAKIN' said so!

See, now I'm an analyst, too. It's that easy.

Yeah! You tell 'em!!!

[JadeEmpirePlaya]

Wu must be on AppleInsiders payroll because he is all I hear about.

[solsun]

Originally posted by AppleInsider


Meanwhile, Wu speculates that Apple chief executive Steve Jobs is likely to focus his upcoming World Wide Developers Conference keynote exclusively on the Mac, refraining from any iPod related announcements.

]

You're kidding... Really? You mean at the world wide DEVELOPERS conference, Jobs is likely to focus on the Mac.

How insightful Mr Wu is.

[wnurse]

Originally posted by AgNuke1707
So Apple's stock has been falling over the past few weeks based on some dipshit analyst's predictions on a product that Apple hasn't even announced as existing? Absolutely astonishing ... it's as if the "analysts" expect Apple to follow THEIR upgrade cycle instead of Apple's wow. Amazing. If I were a stock holder, I'd be pissed right now at analysts driving the price of my stock down based on unsubstantiated claims. Remember how all the analysts predicted the awesome iPhone and the Mac Mini Media Center? Shit ... those were hits weren't they? They're speculating just as much as we are. Screw nuclear engineering, I need to be a technology and computer analyst...

Kinda demonstrates how little you understand the investor mindset. Did you assume that apple don't meet with analyst and tell them stuff (of course they do, they are a public company). They don't have to announce anything to you. Secondly, as someone noted, stock price is a function of what is expected of a company, not what the company announces. A company can announce record earnings and still have their stock fall (i'm sure you have seen this before). Stock price is not a function of what apple says but what investors expect. If i don't think apple will deliver in july/august (i could give a shit whether apple announced a product or not) and i am thinking of buying stock and to me personally, the stock is now worth 54 bucks instead of 57, why should i pay the higher price?.. cause apple didn't say anything?. Enron didn't say much either and look what happened!!. Should i wait until apple announces they are late before making an educated guess?. How foolish would that be.. as if apple has investors best interest in mind. If apple delivers as expected, then their stock will rise appropriately. Everything works out in the end, don't fret.

[wnurse]

Originally posted by solsun
You're kidding... Really? You mean at the world wide DEVELOPERS conference, Jobs is likely to focus on the Mac.

How insightful Mr Wu is.

Actually, not to defend mr WU (i'm sure he makes tons of money and his clients listen to him regardless of what you say) but does apple always focus on mac at the developers conference?. Why is stating that apple would concentrate on mac an obvious statement if they do not always concentrate on mac?. I'm in a toastmasters club.. one of the rules we learn is state the obvious, say why you gonna state the obvious and restate the obvious. What were you expecting him to say?..

"We expect Steve Jobs to be eating an apple at the 45th minute of the 6th hr into the presentation"..

Actually, we all know steve will talk about the mac and also the ipod.. he is merely stating that steve will talk more mac than ipod. If that is obvious, then ok.. why don't you tell us which topic steve will concentrate on after the developers conference?.. saying he will talk about everything is not an answer (of course he would).. i want specifically, which area will he spend the most time. Mr genius, while you at it, give us specific time (like maybe steve will spend 45 minutes on ipod, 30 on mac, etc)..

i eargerly await (with breath held) your insightfull analysis and pin point prediction

[dmwogan]

Originally posted by AgNuke1707
Screw nuclear engineering, I need to be a technology and computer analyst...

Seriously, who needs cross sections anyway

[solsun]

Originally posted by wnurse
Actually, not to defend mr WU (i'm sure he makes tons of money and his clients listen to him regardless of what you say) but does apple always focus on mac at the developers conference?. Why is stating that apple would concentrate on mac an obvious statement if they do not always concentrate on mac?. I'm in a toastmasters club.. one of the rules we learn is state the obvious, say why you gonna state the obvious and restate the obvious. What were you expecting him to say?..

"We expect Steve Jobs to be eating an apple at the 45th minute of the 6th hr into the presentation"..

Actually, we all know steve will talk about the mac and also the ipod.. he is merely stating that steve will talk more mac than ipod. If that is obvious, then ok.. why don't you tell us which topic steve will concentrate on after the developers conference?.. saying he will talk about everything is not an answer (of course he would).. i want specifically, which area will he spend the most time. Mr genius, while you at it, give us specific time (like maybe steve will spend 45 minutes on ipod, 30 on mac, etc)..

i eargerly await (with breath held) your insightfull analysis and pin point prediction

It is obvious because it is a DEVELOPERS conference. DEVELOPERS attend the DEVELOPERS conference to learn about Mac hardware and software technologies that will benefit them in their development of Mac applications.

Other than a brief summary of iPod/iTunes accomplishments, iPods have NEVER been the focus of the WWDC. You can expect new iPod announcements at a MacWorld or a press announcement, but at the developers conference, it is a given that the keynote will be geared toward new Mac/OSX/software announcements.

Common sense, my friend.. Common sense. If the name of the conference doesn't give you a clue as to what the keynote is about, then maybe Apples WWDC page will:

----"The Apple Worldwide Developers Conference is your chance to dive deep into a full range of the Mac OS X technologies, including preview coverage of Mac OS X Leopard. "-----

http://developer.apple.com/wwdc/index.html?homepage

[solsun]

And to answer your question Mr. Smarty Pants...

Originally posted by wnurse
but does apple always focus on mac at the developers conference?.

Yes.

Why is stating that apple would concentrate on mac an obvious statement if they do not always concentrate on mac?.

Because they always concentrate on the Mac and/or Mac software.

[sunilraman]

"In addition, we anticipate a preview on Mac OS X 10.5 Leopard" - There needs to be yet another post to say HOW FRACKING STUPID it is to use the word "anticipate". I mean, COME FRACKING ON. It's like saying sometime last week, "we anticipate that the Wimbledon Finals and the World Cup will take place on Sunday" WTF?!!! The thing is, Mr. Wu is not being "stupid", he is deliberately trying to position his analysis as having strong foresight by any means necessary. Using the word "anticipate" when it is blatantly not required seems to be a typical analyst sleight-of-hand. Showing that "he knows something most people dont" and that he has the ability to "predict the future". Fucking bollocks.

[sunilraman]

[QUOTE]Originally posted by AppleInsider
....the new iPod nano -- which [Mr. Wu] has dubbed the "mini video iPod" -- will miss the Street's consensus view of a July or August introduction.


I think at the size of the Nano the video experience will be dismal - I don't think that Apple will want to go this route. It's a very gimmicky move... just like those useless tiny MP4 players. Unless, it is a full touchscreen and you actually view the Nano "on it's side"...?

[sunilraman]

In my usual blatant cross-pimping of mockups, without further ado, the imagery below. If it's not showing up, try again later

[wnurse]

Originally posted by solsun
And to answer your question Mr. Smarty Pants...



Yes.



Because they always concentrate on the Mac and/or Mac software.

Oh really?. They always do?. Since when?. I've been involved in the mac community as long as you have. No they don't.
Yes, they always mention the mac (like i said, the analyst did not say apple would not talk about the ipod, he just said apple would concentrate more on mac)

You seem to have difficulty with what he said.
When the ipod came out, apple spent most of its time on that.
When osX came out, apple spent most of its time on that.
Maybe you need your memory refreshed.

I understand to your mind, spending time on OSX and the mac hardware and ipod must all seem to be the same to you
(i know newbies confuse talking about OS X and mac as the same).

[Chucker]

Originally posted by wnurse
When the ipod came out, apple spent most of its time on that.

Not at WWDC.

(i know newbies confuse talking about OS X and mac as the same).

Because they are. Mac is a platform, i.e. a combination of hardware and software. The two are, as far as Apple is concerned, inseparable.

WWDC is about developing applications for the Mac, that is, for Mac OS, to run on a Mac computer.

[ozbone]

I suspect that part of the reason behind the delay is to time its release to coincide with the release of the (rumored) MS player, and thereby diminish some of its zing.

[Chucker]

Of course, both the alleged "delay" and the supposed MS player are pure speculation.

[ecking]

I'll cross post too, someone on engadget came up with these ones and since sunilraman opened the floodgates for mockups here:

[solsun]

Originally posted by wnurse
Oh really?. They always do?. Since when?. I've been involved in the mac community as long as you have. No they don't.
Yes, they always mention the mac (like i said, the analyst did not say apple would not talk about the ipod, he just said apple would concentrate more on mac)

You seem to have difficulty with what he said.
When the ipod came out, apple spent most of its time on that.
When osX came out, apple spent most of its time on that.
Maybe you need your memory refreshed.

I understand to your mind, spending time on OSX and the mac hardware and ipod must all seem to be the same to you
(i know newbies confuse talking about OS X and mac as the same).

Okay, I'm gonna try and put this in laymans terms for you, since you don't seem to understand the concept of the WWDC and what the purpose of the conference is for:

I'll start by posting Apple's definition of the WWDC taken from the WWDC FAQ page:

http://developer.apple.com/wwdc/faq/

What is WWDC?:

WWDC (Worldwide Developers Conference) is Apple's most important annual event for hardware and software developers, including in-house developers, computational scientists, IT managers, and system administrators. Thousands of developers from around the world come to California each year to receive in-depth information and instruction from Apple's technical architects and engineers.

Does it make sense to you yet? This is not a special media event or a MacWorld Expo, this is a MACINTOSH event for MACINTOSH DEVELOPERS. The focus of the WWDC is ALWAYS on the Mac and Mac software and NEVER on iPods or other non-Mac Apple products.

Steve Jobs has NEVER introduced a new iPod at the WWDC keynote. Steve Jobs ALWAYS focuses his WWDC keynote on new Macs and/or Mac related software. Macs and Mac software are the sole purpose of the conference. The developers who attend this conference do not pay $1500 to learn about the latest and greatest iPod, they come to learn about Apple's latest and greatest Mac technologies.

So back to my original point regarding Wu's comment:

Originally posted by AppleInsider

Meanwhile, Wu speculates that Apple chief executive Steve Jobs is likely to focus his upcoming World Wide Developers Conference keynote exclusively on the Mac, refraining from any iPod related announcements.

It's a no brainer. A stupid comment by Mr. Wu.

[solsun]

Originally posted by wnurse
Oh really?.

YES.

Originally posted by wnurse
They always do?.

YES

Originally posted by wnurse
Since when?.

1983.

Originally posted by wnurse
I've been involved in the mac community as long as you have. No they don't.

YES THEY DO.

You obviously haven't been paying attention. I'd suggest checking your facts before you publicly make yourself look like an idiot by arguing a point of which you are clearly wrong.

From Wikipedia:

"The Apple Worldwide Developers Conference, commonly abbreviated WWDC, is a conference held annually in California by Apple Computer. The conference is primarily used by Apple to showcase its new software and technologies for developers.

In recent years the conference has been used to demonstrate and distribute preview versions of upcoming Mac OS X versions. The number of attendees varies between 2000 to 3500 developers.

The conference starts with a keynote presentation which has been delivered by Apple CEO Steve Jobs since 1998, resulting in the event becoming known as "Stevenotes".

The first WWDC was held in Monterey, California in 1983. From 1998 to 2002, WWDC was held in mid-May. From 2003 to 2005 it was held in June to better distribute Apple's show commitments. In 2006, WWDC will be held two months later in August, possibly to allow extra preparation time before the release of the expected developer preview version of Mac OS X v10.5 "Leopard".

Every single year since 1983, the focus of the WWDC has been on Mac and Mac software technologies. The only non-Mac product ever announced at the WWDC was the iSight camera in 2003. However, it was introduced alongside the PowerMac G5. iPod announcements have NEVER been a part of WWDC.

[solsun]

Originally posted by wnurse
.
When the ipod came out, apple spent most of its time on that.

Yes, you're right. Jobs did spend most of his time on the iPod because it was a SPECIAL APPLE MUSIC EVENT, not the WWDC. And if you do a little further research, you will find that EVERY subsequent iPod related announcement has been at either a special press/media event or a MacWorld. NEVER has an iPod announcement come at the WWDC.

Watch the first 2001 iPod introduction here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kN0SVBCJqLs

[AgNuke1707]

Originally posted by wnurse
Kinda demonstrates how little you understand the investor mindset. ... Everything works out in the end, don't fret.

You should have been a better investor and bought in when they were at $35 about a year ago and you knew the transition was coming. If you were an even better investor you would have sold your your stock at around $80 after the Mac Mini / Leather iPod Case / Hi-Fi announcement because it was clear then that the Intel transition momentum wouldn't last for much longer. What have we had since then? The 1GB Nano? The new Macbook that apprently sucks for (take your pick of reasons...). It's been analyst after analyst saying Apple is facing delays, Apple is having issues. Apple is doomed. Here comes Microsoft to kill the iPod at Christmas with their Swiss Army xPod that shits out free music and has x-ray goggles. Please. Nobody holds their cards closer than Steve Jobs ... does anybody else think he'd tell a bunch of analysts what's in the works?

[wilco]

wnurse pretty much got owned.

[wnurse]

Originally posted by wilco
wnurse pretty much got owned.

I got owned?. Wow.. owned?.. what is that?.. the teen slang?.

First of all, no one has proven anything (not even me.. we both have been making statements without really backing it up), secondly, i don't expect to be right all the time so even i am wrong this time, owned?.. we are not playing a video game here where he is beating the crap out me of.. we are having a discussion.

[solsun]

Originally posted by wnurse
I got owned?. Wow.. owned?.. what is that?.. the teen slang?.

First of all, no one has proven anything (not even me.. we both have been making statements without really backing it up),

Re-read my posts, I've backed up all my statements with facts and web links to support those facts. And yes, I've successfully proven that you are wrong. In other words, 'You got owned!"

[wnurse]

Originally posted by solsun

You obviously haven't been paying attention. I'd suggest checking your facts before you publicly make yourself look like an idiot by arguing a point of which you are clearly wrong.


Every single year since 1983, the focus of the WWDC has been on Mac and Mac software technologies. The only non-Mac product ever announced at the WWDC was the iSight camera in 2003. However, it was introduced alongside the PowerMac G5. iPod announcements have NEVER been a part of WWDC.

they have introduced monitors at wwdc also (i'm not sure an apple monitor can be called mac related). The problem is, anything that is not ipod, seems to get lumped into the category mac and mac related. All apple products are mac related either hardware or software. I took his message to mean apple would focus more on the mac computer itself and perhaps the operating system however i can see how people can consider the monitor to be mac hardware. I consider it apple hardware, not mac hardware and apple has introduced monitors at their wwdc conference. Also they did intro podcast and new versions of itunes. Now, is that ipod related or OS X related? (both itunes and podcast can exist outside apple hardware). Apple monitors can be used without using apple computers or any apple software.

also, i never claimed that apple ever used WWDC to intro third party hardware/software.. why would they?.

Now, i'm not Mr Wu but i would not be surprised if he meant his statement as you took it. When he said mac, he could have meant everything but the Ipod.

But silly me to be confused. According to a prior post, you own me.

[solsun]

Originally posted by wnurse
they have introduced monitors at wwdc also (i'm not sure an apple monitor can be called mac related). The problem is, anything that is not ipod, seems to get lumped into the category mac and mac related. All apple products are mac related either hardware or software. I took his message to mean apple would focus more on the mac computer itself and perhaps the operating system however i can see how people can consider the monitor to be mac hardware. I consider it apple hardware, not mac hardware and apple has introduced monitors at their wwdc conference. Also they did intro podcast and new versions of itunes. Now, is that ipod related or OS X related? (both itunes and podcast can exist outside apple hardware). Apple monitors can be used without using apple computers or any apple software.

also, i never claimed that apple ever used WWDC to intro third party hardware/software.. why would they?.

Now, i'm not Mr Wu but i would not be surprised if he meant his statement as you took it. When he said mac, he could have meant everything but the Ipod.

But silly me to be confused. According to a prior post, you own me.

I don't know how much more clearer I can explain the purpose of the WWDC without repeating myself.

WWDC is a developers conference. Developers are the people who develop applications for the Macintosh platform. That means when Steve Jobs kicks of the 5 day conference with his keynote, he is speaking to the attendees of the conference which largely consists of Macintosh DEVELOPERS. And you can bet your life, that the contents of his speech are going to pertain to the interests of those who are attending the conference, the developers. Sure, it'd be safe to say that many of those developers have iPods too, but that is not why they paid $1500 to attend the conference. They came and paid $1500 because they want to learn about what Apple is doing that is going to help them in their job of developing applications for OSX. There is a time and place for non-Mac related announcements, the World Wide Developers Conference is NOT IT!

Typically, Jobs begins the keynote with a brief summary of Apple's recent accomplishments. You can expect him to announce things like how many iTunes songs have been sold. iPod marketshare, Apple retail success etc etc..

However after the summary of all things Apple, Steve moves on to the meat and potatoes of his speech which is ALWAYS largely focused on the Mac and Mac software. Since the first release of OSX, Steve's keynote has generally focused on the new upcoming technologies in the next version of OSX (apart from 2005 where he announced and explained the transition to Intel.) The preview of the next version of OSX is the number one reason developers attend the conference. This gives them a firsthand look at Apple's newest innovations and gives them the tools they need in developing their applications to take advantage of these new innovations before the OS is officially released by Apple.

Afterwards, Steve typically announces one or more of Apple's newest Mac related hardware offerings, and yes, a Cinema Display is Macintosh related. A computer screen is directly connected to the computer, right?

My point is, Wu's comments were ridiculous. It does not require any speculation or "analysis" to determine that this years WWDC will preview OSX Leopard. Apple have already publically announced they would do this.

It also does not require any speculation or analysis to determine that iPod, iPhones, or any other non-Mac related product won't be introduced during the WWDC keynote. They never are. Those types of product announcements are reserved for special press announcements or for events like the MacWorld Expo. The WWDC is a Macintosh conference for Macintosh developers. It is only logical that the keynote and product introductions will all be Macintosh related.

[solsun]

Originally posted by wnurse
The problem is, anything that is not ipod, seems to get lumped into the category mac and mac related.

Well, it's not really a problem, but you are right. Apple officially has two business divisions inside its Cupertino offices:

The iPod (music-related) business, and the Mac (computer-related) business.

The WWDC is specifically geared toward its Mac business.