iPod report boosts Apple shares to all-time high

[AppleInsider]

Shares of Apple Computer closed at an all-time high Thursday after PiperJaffray released an upbeat research note stating that the company appears on track to see record-setting sales of its iPod digital music players during the December holiday quarter.

Apple's shares rose $1.56 to close at $85.61 on the Nasdaq Stock Market, representing an all-time closing high for the Cupertino, Calif.-based company.

In the research note, analyst Gene Munster told investors that an extrapolation of data from the first month of the quarter indicated Apple was on pace to sell between 14 and 15 million iPods before any sales of the new iPod shuffle model had been factored into the mix.

"It is likely that the impact of the iPod shuffle, which shipped on November 3, will have a material impact on the November and December NPD data and our current expectations for the quarter could prove to be low," the analyst said.

Investor optimism also received a boost from reports that Apple's iPod cell phone initiative is finally approaching fruition, with several reports out of the Far East confirming a recent release of the device to manufacturing.

At the same time, rumblings over to the company's other line of work -- its Mac business -- were similarly rosy.

In a research note released Tuesday, UBS Investment Research analyst Ben Reitzes said checks with national retailers revealed strong demand for Intel-based Macs leading into the crucial holiday shopping season.

Meanwhile, things weren't looking so bright for Apple's longtime rival to the north, as the analyst's checks turned up "little excitement" over Microsoft's Zune digital music player, which made its dismal debut earlier in the week.

"Two boxed Zune players sat ignored on the top shelf of a Plexiglas showcase packed with iPod accessories in a Virgin Megastore near Union Square in San Francisco's popular shopping district," wrote the Middle East Times.

Jake Brooks, a sales clerk at the store, told the paper: "I didn't even know they were there until a customer pointed them out."

"I'm sure we have more in a closet in the back somewhere," he said.

[ View this article at AppleInsider.com ]

[Tommo_UK]

AAPL's all-time high was set in January 2006, and was 86.40.

This story is wrong.

[MacRR]

Originally Posted by Tommo_UK

AAPL's all-time high was set in January 2006, and was 86.40.

This story is wrong.

yes- it came close- but no cigar.

[disruptor]

According to google, the high in Janurary 06 was 85.59 on jan 13th

http://finance.google.com/finance?q=AAPL

edit: first post btw!

-dissy

[McHuman]

Originally Posted by disruptor

According to google, the high in Janurary 06 was 85.59 on jan 13th

http://finance.google.com/finance?q=AAPL

86.40. Tommo is correct :

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AAP...d=p36713111669

Google finance is terrible, btw.

[disruptor]

Then I stand corrected. First and Last time I use google finance.

-dissy

[lfmorrison]

Originally Posted by Tommo_UK

AAPL's all-time high was set in January 2006, and was 86.40.

This story is wrong.

The story is factually accurate, but people are interpreting it out of context.

On January 12, 2006, during mid-day trading, the stock reached 86.40.
However, the closing price on that date was was 84.29.

This article states that yesterday, AAPL closed at 85.61, which is the highest ever closing price.

[disruptor]

Originally Posted by AppleInsider

Shares of Apple Computer hit an all-time high

There is your source of confusion. I guess technically (though I'm not that business-savvy) the all time high was reached in Janurary, but the highest closing price was yesterday.

-dissy

[MacRR]

Seriously- closing price versus 52 week high is semantics at the worst-

someone sold aapl (nice) for 86.40 and someone bought it (yikes- until now ) for that price.

[Rolo]

AAPL reached an intraday high yesterday of 86.30 but the all time high was 86.40 back in January. Back then, AAPL spiked when Jobs announced iPod sales at MWSF but that heady high only lasted a week until earnings and once they were officially announced, AAPL dropped and kept going down for months, reaching a low of around 50 in July. AAPL has risen about 72% in just the past 4 months.

The difference this time is that this isn't a spike. We're in a trend that'll keep going for some time. There will be hiccups along the way, for sure, but the trend is definitely up long term. One hiccup could come at Macworld if Jobs doesn't announce the iPhone. Another could come at earnings if Q2 guidance is disappointing.

AAPL could well go up into the 100+ range within the next 3 to 6 months and there could be a stock split as Apple's products get more popular. Lots of great stuff to look forward to like the true video iPod, iPhone, and Santa Rosa portables. Next year could Apple's biggest yet.

[pena2050]

I'm new to the investing game. How do you know when it's a trend or a spike?

[MacRR]

Originally Posted by pena2050

I'm new to the investing game. How do you know when it's a trend or a spike?

because the value of the stock has been climbing steadily with lots more good news on the way. There will still be spikes- AKA around the time of MacWorld where the value will spike up, only for profit taking to take over.... presumably.

but of course, all of this is educated guessing... There are all kinds of scenarios that can play out to make the stock plunge as well. Risk my man - learn and love it!

[chrisBarnes]

Originally Posted by pena2050

I'm new to the investing game. How do you know when it's a trend or a spike?

There is no way to know. Buying any stock at record high's is always a little scary. Before you invest, make sure that you understand how to reap returns in both rising and declining markets. If you only understand long investing you might get into trouble -- especially with tech.

[DeaPeaJay]

Everytime I mention Zune to someone, they say, "What's Zune?". I had no idea there were this many people who didn't know about it. Where is all that Microsoft Money for advertising going?

[pena2050]

Originally Posted by MacRR

because the value of the stock has been climbing steadily with lots more good news on the way. There will still be spikes- AKA around the time of MacWorld where the value will spike up, only for profit taking to take over.... presumably.

but of course, all of this is educated guessing... There are all kinds of scenarios that can play out to make the stock plunge as well. Risk my man - learn and love it!

To the apple investors here, do you guys participate in 'profit-taking' or are you just sitting tight? There have been 3 or 4 fluctuations around the $83 mark over the past several months. I'm guessing the profit takers have fixed on this point so far. How did they decide on that amount?

Now that the price has been somewhat consistant at $85, at least for a week, are the profit takers waiting for a higher profit-taking point? Are there enough positive expectations that profit takers think the stock will grow for a while?

Who are profit takers? Are they mostly on wallstreet, passing eachother notes saying 'it's time to sell.'

I'm trying to get a better feel for how successful profit takers and investors make their buying and selling decisions.

If any successful investors have advice, or books to recommend, particularly books that give the big picture of how the investment world (wallstreet) acts, please post here or email me. pena2050@yahoo.com

[Wally]

Originally Posted by DeaPeaJay

Where is all that Microsoft Money for advertising going?

Steve Ballmer reportedly used some of the funds for a new skin graft on his head....

[vmardian]

>> Are there enough positive expectations that profit takers think the stock will grow for a while?

Expectations are built into the price of the stock at every point in time. The stock won't move unless something happens which changes our expectations (for better or for worse).

>> Who are profit takers?

Anyone who sells. There is no specific class as you imply. It's all a big continuum.

Often times the media tries to make sense of things which simply cannot be made sense of. That's where you get these words like profit-taking.

[Wally]

Originally Posted by pena2050

I'm new to the investing game. How do you know when it's a trend or a spike?

A spike is sometimes easy to see if you watch the charts and notice dramatic "spikes"... otherwise a more "stable" stock chart will look like a low frequency audio wave.... take a look at IBM's chart (or any other blue chip for that matter) and you'll see what I mean....

There are always surges and plunges in any stock primarily when the whole market is resonding to something, but the more "stable" ones will be able to handle it well... I have to say APPL has been doing very well and is maintaining a high price versus a lot of other tech stocks...

[Rolo]

Originally Posted by pena2050

To the apple investors here, do you guys participate in 'profit-taking' or are you just sitting tight? There have been 3 or 4 fluctuations around the $83 mark over the past several months. I'm guessing the profit takers have fixed on this point so far. How did they decide on that amount?

(snip)

If any successful investors have advice, or books to recommend, particularly books that give the big picture of how the investment world (wallstreet) acts, please post here or email me. pena2050@yahoo.com

I'm a long time AAPL investor and I've done quite well. I'm a retired Mac consultant. I'm not a pro investor by any stretch since I know very little about options. I've seen some über-savvy options traders lose millions playing AAPL options so I don't play. Just a long who tries to buy low and sell high. Haven't lost a penny and made quite a bit. Here's my take, FWIW:

To determine a fair price for AAPL, look at the forward earnings estimates and decide on a fair multiple. For example, right now Apple's forward P/E is 26.83. That seems fair since Apple deserves a higher multiple than other tech stocks. I wouldn't mind if it went to 30. Also, the future earnings estimates are too low and they've been climbing. Stocks usually go up if estimates are rising. For instance, in the past 30 days there have been 6 upward revisions for this quarter, 15 for next quarter, and 18 for the fiscal year. That's a nice upward trend and the stock has been moving up as well.

The current high estimate for this quarter is .83. Apple will likely beat that number. I'm expecting in excess of 18m iPods to be sold but the ASP will likely be somewhat lower due to the new shuffle. That means revenue won't scale relative to unit increases. No problem since revenue from Mac sales will be robust, unlike a year ago.

What really drives a stock is profit per share and the anticipation of future profits. If Apple announces something and investors think future earnings will significantly increase, the stock will surge. If an analyst suddenly raises the price target, the stock could rise. If there's a din in the rumor mill about a new product like the iPhone, the stock often goes up, especially if analysts and news stories back up the rumors. Last night, Arnold (MacRumors) and Bob (LoopRumors) were on CNBC talking about the iPhone. There's been such a buzz about the iPhone in the news, among analysts and rumormongers that investors are driving the stock up.

I think we'll see the 90s soon and maybe some spiking above 100 in January but that's just a guess. Overall, I see lots of good times ahead in the new year.

[mugwump]

Yeah, whatever.

Anyone long Apple the last few years is a genius, anyone long Apple in the 90's was a fool.

The market is efficient, all known public information is already priced in. Tomorrow they could announce a massive restating of profits and the price could tumble. Jobs could step down to begin charity work for garage bands across the european baltic countries.

I think the marketshare gains will only snowball into great revenues next year, and my money is staying put, but you never know. It's not called risk versus reward for nothing.

[Rolo]

I was long AAPL in the 1990s but I was no fool. When the stock plunged 50% at the end of September, 2000, I sold most of my other stocks at a profit and bought lots more shares of AAPL. I've done quite well as a result. Every chance I got, I kept adding more shares of AAPL.

Apple has to restate earnings before the end of the year so there will probably be some sort of hiccup in the stock when that happens. Just another buying opportunity.

Sure, Jobs could retire and the stock could take a brief hit but Apple has great people onboard so I don't see that as a problem for the long term investor.

A bigger long range concern is the economy with a recession looming a couple years or so down the road. Before that happens, Apple could split and again rise up to current levels.

[ricksbrain]

I was fortunate to buy in the teens, as well. If I had had more money available, I would have been willing to risk it all, I was so certain this was going to happen.

It's not scientific by any means, but Apple is headed higher. There are things in the works for long term growth. BIG growth. Personally, I wonder what the data center they bought from MCI is for, and what will be housed on the new campus that's going to be built. They are confident in what's coming. So am I. Big time.

[Bageljoey]

Originally Posted by pena2050

I'm new to the investing game. How do you know when it's a trend or a spike?

Well, there is one foolproof method in three easy steps:
1) look at the current price and trend.
2) wait several years.
3) review the stock prices history.

Any other answer is guessing to some extent or another...

[ricksbrain]

BagelJoey-- Fool-proof? Really?

How about Lucent? Following its upswing in the late 90s, if you waited a few years, your investment could have dropped from almost $100 to $2.50. And in this case, history tells you nothing, except what you've lost. Or Apple-- price is high-ish, trend is up (good) and stock history is a tad scary, unless you ignore the 90s. Your formula has some aspects right, I think, but fool-proof? I'm not convinced.

Educated guessing is all there is. Your formula is the same sort of guessing, with your own favorite criteria-- I'd just personally advise against it being done this way. I hope it works for you, though. We all have our view. But, if this is yours, I'd bet there's more to it that you haven't explained. Not exactly disagreeing with you, but wondering what else plays into your equation...

Here's a bit of mine:

One of the things I take into account is how well a company is doing relative to the rest of the field-- within its industry and without. If a company has the attention of investors (like Apple), and it has a recent proven track record (like Apple), with prospects above and beyond its competitors (like Apple), it's a good bet. Investing is often about the psychology of those investing, as much as it is about the fundamentals of the companies being invested in. If the ones with the money are attracted, there's money to be made. No attention, no movement. Great company with no attention = potential growth, but nothing assured.

In the end, it's still a gamble. So, don't invest in anything you don't really understand, or you won't know when to get out, or when to dive in. And don't make huge profits your only goal-- that kind of focus will make you only look at a small subsection of what's out there.

May we all have toilet paper made out of $100 bills. The anti-chafing versions, or course.

[orange whip]

Originally Posted by Rolo

I was long AAPL in the 1990s but I was no fool. When the stock plunged 50% at the end of September, 2000, I sold most of my other stocks at a profit and bought lots more shares of AAPL. I've done quite well as a result. Every chance I got, I kept adding more shares of AAPL.

Apple has to restate earnings before the end of the year so there will probably be some sort of hiccup in the stock when that happens. Just another buying opportunity.

Sure, Jobs could retire and the stock could take a brief hit but Apple has great people onboard so I don't see that as a problem for the long term investor.

A bigger long range concern is the economy with a recession looming a couple years or so down the road. Before that happens, Apple could split and again rise up to current levels.

I bought in at the bottom of that rather tall water fall and nearly bailed whe it went well into the teens. Bought more at 55 and 75. Its all up from here. Why does it trade at such a low forward PE? I wonder whether Apple's typical consevative guidance affects the forward PE multiple???

[sunilraman]

Originally Posted by Rolo

The difference this time is that this isn't a spike. We're in a trend that'll keep going for some time. There will be hiccups along the way, for sure, but the trend is definitely up long term. One hiccup could come at Macworld if Jobs doesn't announce the iPhone. Another could come at earnings if Q2 guidance is disappointing.
..................
AAPL could well go up into the 100+ range within the next 3 to 6 months and there could be a stock split as Apple's products get more popular. Lots of great stuff to look forward to like the true video iPod, iPhone, and Santa Rosa portables. Next year could Apple's biggest yet.

Yes, it will be a spike if Macworld SF2007 Jan disappoints the very high expectations placed on it. Also, it may slip downward after the Financial Q1 results exuberance dies down.

My prediction is Stevie J is gonna blowout 2007 with a clear, progressive, dominating strategy. Post-January Q1 results, the stock will slide a bit down to $70+ as things cool a bit, it will be March to August that will be the key period to convince investors that Apple is going long term on consumer electronics AND personal computers. I like your optimism Rolo (the infamous Rolo!!!!! Plasmas where art thou? ) it will be the "great stuff" that proves that this time it is a trend NOT a spike, otherwise, we'll see a repeat of Jan 2006 - to present, with a dip in the middle and frenzy towards Christmas 2007.

Overall, good on Apple, and despite the dip that will certainly follow the current frenzy, dip occuring along Feb-August, I suspect, they could sustain a gentle rise past $100 by mid-2007.

So hard to advise people not to buy AAPL because it is so overpriced but in the past two years it's always been that case! My advice armchair style is, wait for a $65, $70 max. DIP before getting in. And be prepared to wait 6 months to a year for AAPL to return to $80+ after that.......

To those new to things (not saying you're new to things Rolo)
Most importantly do not PLAY SHARES like it was the fracking Roulette or Poker...!! Have an overall strategy of investment -- this means low-risk and high-risk diversification, and adjusting your risk profile alongside your age, income and retirement strategy....!

[Rolo]

Originally Posted by orange whip

I bought in at the bottom of that rather tall water fall and nearly bailed whe it went well into the teens. Bought more at 55 and 75. Its all up from here. Why does it trade at such a low forward PE? I wonder whether Apple's typical consevative guidance affects the forward PE multiple???

The forward P/E multiple does seem low to me, too. I'm sure that'll change as the stock goes up but future earnings estimates are too low, too. The stock can go up sharply once more people realize it's a bargain. Who wouldn't buy a stock that could go up $30 per share?

Like rick'sbrain, I too wonder what Apple will use that data center for. Isn't that one of four? Do they have to do with the iPhone? iTV? HD movie downloads? Call center to replace the one that was going to be built in Bangalore? Real time streaming of video content to iTV?

[sunilraman]

Originally Posted by Rolo

....Like rick'sbrain, I too wonder what Apple will use that data center for. Isn't that one of four? Do they have to do with the iPhone? iTV? HD movie downloads? Call center to replace the one that was going to be built in Bangalore? Real time streaming of video content to iTV?

We should keep in mind that Apple's growth strategy is going to take more resources on-the-ground. Not nett financial resources because the profit margins are still high. But just look at what would be needed as iTunes Store grows. Apple Store global grows. Apple retail and managing that.

As a company grows it will need more managers, more staff, more office space, more IT resources, etc. What is and has been amazing about Apple is how it has been able to grow while managing and maintaining such good profit margins and sustainably (?) increasing profits quarter-over-quarter, in general. This is mostly due to a very clear and focused vision (Steve Jobs and a few select others) on what Apple is about and where they want to diversify into. The iPhone will not do everything people want it to do, but it *will* be a big hit.... IF it comes out

Admittedly, there has been complaints about quality control which suffers as a company grows, I'll leave that for another debate.

[JeffDM]

Originally Posted by lfmorrison

The story is factually accurate, but people are interpreting it out of context.

On January 12, 2006, during mid-day trading, the stock reached 86.40.
However, the closing price on that date was was 84.29.

This article states that yesterday, AAPL closed at 85.61, which is the highest ever closing price.

If the headline leaves that critical piece of information out, then I think it's understandable if mistakes are made in reading the article itself. I would not call the recent peak an all-time high because an all-time high closing price is not the all-time high price.

[sunilraman]

What is after-trading-hours? Does that mean trades still occur outside of the usual Nasdaq times?

[alansky]

Originally Posted by Rolo

Sure, Jobs could retire and the stock could take a brief hit but Apple has great people onboard so I don't see that as a problem for the long term investor.

Apple without Steve Jobs is like a horse without a rider. It's a company with boat loads of talent but no vision. Without the guidance of a Steve Jobs, Apple would simply continue to improve on what it has already done. Nothing wrong with that, but it's not innovation. It's not pulling rabbits out of a hat the way Steve does.

Apple is obviously going great guns and can keep making lots of money for a long time. But once the inspiration is gone, Apple's star is bound to slowly fade. Who knows? That future commodity-oriented Apple might make even more money than the innovative, risk-taking Apple of today, but the spell will have been broken.

[SpamSandwich]

Originally Posted by alansky

Apple without Steve Jobs is like a horse without a rider. It's a company with boat loads of talent but no vision. Without the guidance of a Steve Jobs, Apple would simply continue to improve on what it has already done. Nothing wrong with that, but it's not innovation. It's not pulling rabbits out of a hat the way Steve does.

Apple is obviously going great guns and can keep making lots of money for a long time. But once the inspiration is gone, Apple's star is bound to slowly fade. Who knows? That future commodity-oriented Apple might make even more money than the innovative, risk-taking Apple of today, but the spell will have been broken.

I agree with this. Microsoft has been a floundering fish without Bill, and the years Apple went Steve-less were bad years. Without Steve or a rock-solid long, long term plan in place, Apple will slowly become consumed with the usual bullshit that comes from people who only look forward to their next paycheck... this is perhaps an overly simplistic, but reality-based observation.

[sunilraman]

Originally Posted by SpamSandwich

I agree with this. Microsoft has been a floundering fish without Bill, and the years Apple went Steve-less were bad years. Without Steve or a rock-solid long, long term plan in place, Apple will slowly become consumed with the usual bullshit that comes from people who only look forward to their next paycheck... this is perhaps an overly simplistic, but reality-based observation.

The big question is Is Steve Grooming Successors? I think the WWDC '06 keynote was a big step in him handing-off bits to others. He's handed-off to Phil S. quite a bit in the past in certain situations, but bringing on Bertrand Serlet was an important step.

I think Steve would like to see things through to 2010, but he'll have to be grooming people for the next few years and spotting "The Next Steve" --- big shoes to fill indeed. Who's going to invent "The Next iPod"???

[orange whip]

Originally Posted by sunilraman

What is after-trading-hours? Does that mean trades still occur outside of the usual Nasdaq times?

Try this link. I think this will give you the answer you're looking for

http://quotes.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent...&mkttype=AFTER

[orange whip]

Originally Posted by Rolo

The forward P/E multiple does seem low to me, too. I'm sure that'll change as the stock goes up but future earnings estimates are too low, too. The stock can go up sharply once more people realize it's a bargain. Who wouldn't buy a stock that could go up $30 per share?

Yes, but, AAPL has been a shining light for some time now. How long will it take for people that AAPL has sustained and substantial growth? Even Yahoo has a better forward PE and it's not doing that well.

[ricksbrain]

Attention on AAPL has been going on for a few years now. Investors would rather seek the next AAPL. Apple's an oldish company in many peoples' eyes, even if it's really young and revitalized. When they find the next best thing is still AAPL, they will come back. Apple has growth potential and has given signs that it's taking advantage of the situation.

Yahoo-- not so much.

[alansky]

Originally Posted by sunilraman

I think Steve would like to see things through to 2010, but he'll have to be grooming people for the next few years and spotting "The Next Steve" --- big shoes to fill indeed. Who's going to invent "The Next iPod"???

Looking for the next Steve Jobs is like looking for the next Babe Ruth!

[sunilraman]

Originally Posted by lfmorrison

The story is factually accurate, but people are interpreting it out of context.....On January 12, 2006, during mid-day trading, the stock reached 86.40.
However, the closing price on that date was was 84.29.

This article states that yesterday, AAPL closed at 85.61, which is the highest ever closing price.

Wow, more semantics:

Apple Computer, Inc.
After Hours Market
Nov. 16, 2006

Market Close: $ 85.85
After Hours Last: $ 85.82

http://quotes.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent...&selected=aapl

[sunilraman]

Originally Posted by orange whip

Try this link. I think this will give you the answer you're looking for

http://quotes.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent...&mkttype=AFTER

Interesting:
"Investors may trade in the Pre-Market (8:00-9:30 a.m. ET) and the After Hours Market (4:00-6:30 p.m. ET). Participation from Market Makers and ECNs is strictly voluntary and as a result, these sessions may offer less liquidity and inferior prices. Stock prices may also move more quickly in this environment. Investors who anticipate trading during these times are strongly advised to use limit orders"

Funnily enough the last entry (top most on page) shows 19:33 ET with a price of $85.82

[sunilraman]

Originally Posted by lfmorrison

The story is factually accurate, but people are interpreting it out of context.

On January 12, 2006, during mid-day trading, the stock reached 86.40.
However, the closing price on that date was was 84.29.

This article states that yesterday, AAPL closed at 85.61, which is the highest ever closing price.

C'mon AAPL hit $87.00 on Monday during normal trading and we'll have a true all-time high by all means and measures....!!! $87!!! go go go go go woooooooooooo